Dependence in the 2001 one-number census project

Summary.  The one-number census approach was developed by the Office for National Statistics to adjust the counts from the 2001 census of England and Wales for underenumeration. The method is underpinned by an assumption of independence between the count of the population that was given by the 2001 census and the count that was given by the Census Coverage Survey. Some dependence was, however, detected, and the paper describes the strategy that was used to measure dependence and to adjust the 2001 census population estimates.     

Proposals for 2001 samples of anonymized records: An assessment of disclosure risk

In 1991 Marsh and co-workers made the case for a sample of anonymized records (SAR) from the 1991 census of population. The case was accepted by the Office for National Statistics (then the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys) and a request was made by the Economic and Social Research Council to purchase the SARs. Two files were released for Great Britain—a 2% sample of individuals and a 1% sample of households. Subsequently similar samples were released for Northern Ireland. Since their release, the files have been heavily used for research and there has been no known breach of confidentiality. There is a considerable demand for similar files from the 2001 census, with specific requests for a larger sample size and lower population threshold for the individual SAR. This paper reassesses the analysis of Marsh and co-workers of the risk of identification of an individual or household in a sample of microdata from the 1991 census and also uses alternative ways of assessing risks with the 1991 SARs. The results of both the reassessment and the new analyses are reassuring and allow us to take the 1991 SARs as a base-line against which to assess proposals for changes to the size and structure of samples from the 2001 census.     

An alternative view of the 2001 census and future census taking

Summary.  The 2001 census in the UK asked for a return of people 'usually living at this address'. But this phrase is fuzzy and may have led to undercount. In addition, analysis of the sex ratios in the 2001 census of England and Wales points to a sex bias in the adjustments for net undercount—too few males in relation to females. The Office for National Statistics's abandonment of the method of demographic analysis for the population of working ages has allowed these biases to creep in. The paper presents a demographic account to check on the plausibility of census results. The need to revise preliminary estimates of the national population over a period of years following census day—as experienced in North America and now in the UK—calls into question the feasibility of a one-number census. Looking to the future, the environment for taking a reliable census by conventional methods is deteriorating. The UK Government's proposals for a population register open up the possibility of a Nordic-style administrative record census in the longer term.     

Increasing social mobility: an effective policy to reduce health inequalities

Summary.  Data from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study are used to investigate the effect of mobility between occupationally defined social classes between 1991 and 2001 on health inequality in men and women. Logistic regression models related movement into more or less advantaged employment conditions to limiting long-term illness in 2001, controlling for social class in 1991 and 2001. When class in 1991 was controlled ('class of origin') those who moved into more advantaged social classes were least likely and those moving into less advantaged classes most likely to report a limiting illness. However, when social class in 2001 ('class of destination') was controlled, those moving from less to more advantaged positions were most likely to report limiting illness. The same patterns were seen in women. This means that social mobility did not increase the extent of health inequality over the time period that was observed, but rather served to constrain or dilute it. The results are interpreted in terms of an accumulation model of health inequality, and the policy implications are discussed.     

The USA's bicentennial census: new directions for methodology in 1990

"Planning is under way for the U.S.A. bicentennial census in 1990. The U.S. Census Bureau sponsored a study panel under the U.S. Committee on National Statistics to consider key aspects of methodology for the census and to recommend priority areas for research and testing. The recommendations of the Panel on Decennial Census Methodology, which are summarized in this paper, cover four main topics: adjustment of the census counts for coverage errors, methods of coverage evaluation, uses of sampling in obtaining the count, and uses of administrative records in improving the quality of selected content items."     

Census data issues for epidemiology and health risk assessment: experiences from the Small Area Health Statistics Unit

Summary.  Census data are vital components of epidemiological studies, but the issues that are involved in using these data in such studies are often not fully appreciated. The paper describes some of the problems and uncertainties that arise, and some of the approaches that can be used to address them, based on experience in the Small Area Health Statistics Unit at Imperial College London. Issues considered include the geography of census data (zone design systems, recasting and the role of postcodes), temporal aspects of census data (especially in relation to migration and population change) and information content (especially in relation to characterization of socio-economic status). In the light of these issues, opportunities to improve the resolution and utility of census data for epidemiological studies are discussed.     

The case for small area microdata

Summary.  Census data are available in aggregate form for local areas and, through the samples of anonymized records (SARs), as samples of microdata for households and individuals. In 1991 there were two SAR files: a household file and an individual file. These have a high degree of detail on the census variables but little geographical detail, a situation that will be exacerbated for the 2001 SAR owing to the loss of district level geography on the individual SAR. The paper puts forward the case for an additional sample of microdata, also drawn from the census, that has much greater geographical detail. Small area microdata (SAM) are individual level records with local area identifiers and, to maintain confidentiality, reduced detail on the census variables. Population data from seven local authorities, including rural and urban areas, are used to define prototype samples of SAM. The rationale for SAM is given, with examples that demonstrate the role of local area information in the analysis of census data. Since there is a trade-off between the extent of local detail and the extent of detail on variables that can be made available, the confidentiality risk of SAM is assessed empirically. An indicative specification of the SAM is given, having taken into account the results of the confidentiality analysis.     

Classification by race and Spanish origin in the 1980 census and its impact on white and nonwhite rates

A basic change concerning the racial classification of persons of Spanish origin used in the 1980 U.S. census is examined for its impact on white and nonwhite population counts, particularly in urban areas. "Arrest rates by race for central city Phoenix together with 1980 census data by race and ethnicity for Phoenix and 11 other central cities are used to illustrate the substantive effect of changes in the white and 'other race' counts produced by this change in procedure." The authors consider "remedies for the problems faced by those using published census data..., and one possibility for creating comparable rates is presented. Closely related complications created by the failure of the Office of Management and Budget to arrive at a single, logical statistical standard for the classification of U.S. residents by race and ethnicity are also identified."     

Estimation for small areas in household surveys

In many socio-economic surveys the objective is estimation of total or proportion of persons with a particular attribute. Multi-stage area samples are drawn from geographic strata and population within areal units is used as an auxiliary variable in ratio estimation. For large administrative areas, the auxiliary variable totals are available as population projections based on the last census. However, for small areas population changes are significantly affected by non-demographic factors and hence projections with high enough reliability are not available for small areas. In such situations the efficiency of design-based estimators for small areas can be improved by a ratio adjustment based on the auxiliary variable total for a large area. An inequality on the efficiency of the ratio adjusted estimator is established and its bias and variance is investigated     

Combining census and registration data to estimate detailed elderly migration flows in England and Wales

Summary.  A log-linear model is developed to estimate detailed elderly migration flows by combining data from the 2001 UK census and National Health Services patient register. After showing that the census and National Health Service migration flows can be reasonably combined, elderly migration flows between groupings of local authority districts by age, sex and health status for the 2000–2001 and 2003–2004 periods are estimated and then analysed to show how the patterns have changed. By combining registration data with census data, we can provide recent estimates of detailed elderly migration flows, which can be used for improvements in social planning or policy.     

No islands: charting a course for UK official statistics

Our system of official statistics in the UK is one of the most decentralised and elaborate in the world. As well as the Office for National Statistics (ONS), it spans several sizeable centres of expertise in Whitehall departments and in the three devolved administrations; and it embraces agencies such as the Higher Education Statistics Agency and the Information Centre for Health and Social Care, which sit at arms length from central departments. In 2008, legislation establishing a new Statistics Board, with oversight not just of the ONS but of all official figures produced by these bodies, will come fully into force. Richard Alldritt of the Statistics Commission and Richard Laux of the ONS identify some of the challenges facing the statistical system at this time of transition and suggests a course that the Statistics Board might want to steer.     

Spatial modelling of the two‐party preferred vote in Australian federal elections: 2001–2016

We examine the relationships between electoral socio‐demographic characteristics and two‐party preferences in the six Australian federal elections held between 2001 and 2016. Socio‐demographic information is derived from the Australian Census which occurs every 5 years. Since a census is not directly available for each election, an imputation method is employed to estimate census data for the electorates at the time of each election. This accounts for both spatial and temporal changes in electoral characteristics between censuses. To capture any spatial heterogeneity, a spatial error model is estimated for each election, which incorporates a spatially structured random effect vector. Over time, the impact of most socio‐demographic characteristics that affect electoral two‐party preference do not vary, with age distribution, industry of work, incomes, household mobility and relationships having strong effects in each of the six elections. Education and unemployment are among those that have varying effects. All data featured in this study have been contributed to the eechidna R package (available on CRAN).     

中国地方财政支出无效率的来源

利用DEA方法的超效率SBM模型,以人均财政支出作为投入,以国家统计局发布的地区发展与民生指数（DLI）作为产出,测度了中国大陆分省及四大地区的财政支出效率,并进行了排名;从投入冗余和产出不足方面,对2012年财政支出无效率的原因进行了实证分析。研究表明,多数省份的财政支出处于无效率状态,财政支出效率存在较大的提升空间。在四大地区中,东部和中部地区的财政支出效率较高,高于全国平均水平,其次是西部地区,东北地区的财政支出效率最低。在2012年财政支出无效率的13个省份中,产出不足的程度远高于投入冗余的程度,其中科技创新产出存在严重不足。     

中国国民经济核算的新发展和SNA修订的挑战

2004年经济普查之后,中国国内生产总值核算发生了若干方面变化,包括经济普查年度国内生产总值核算在资料来源、计算方法、生产范围、基本分类和某些具体问题处理方法等方面的修订,国内生产总值历史数据的修订,以及非经济普查年度国内生产总值核算方案的制定;在机构部门账户发生的若干方面变化,包括机构部门账户部门分类的细化和编制方法的修订;而1993年SNA的修订中国国民经济核算所面临的挑战,包括中央银行产出、非正规部门、政府与公共企业的交易--股权投资收益和资本注入等方面的修订对中国国民经济核算的挑战.     

Public expenditure in the UK: how measures matter

Summary.  Studying spending over time requires reliable data. It is not clear that such data exist in the UK, however. The two published sources of functional spending numbers—the Office for National Statistics's 'blue book' and Her Majesty's Treasury's Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses (PESA)—rely on estimates of past spending, using a link year method, rather than recalculating actual spending figures when functional definitions change. We assess the various measures of spending in the UK. Specifically, we do two things. First, we present a new, third, set of spending numbers applying temporally consistent functional definitions to PESA microdata. Second, we compare the three measures. Our analyses indicate that the Office for National Statistics and PESA data differ quite markedly, especially for certain functions, i.e. in some cases the two measures imply completely different histories. The differences between the original PESA data and our new measures are less pronounced on average, though significant differences are evident, especially year by year.     

Coverage and non-response errors in the UK New Earnings Survey

Summary.  The methods underpinning the UK's annual structural earnings survey—the New Earnings Survey—have remained largely unchanged since the survey's inception in 1970. Gradual changes in the labour market over recent years have led to coverage errors in the survey; non-response may also introduce error if it is non-random. The paper describes some of the New Earnings Survey's main non-sampling errors, the effect on survey results and the research that was undertaken by the Office for National Statistics as part of the development of the new Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings to be able to remove or otherwise to account for these errors.     

使用普查数据模拟MPPS抽样方法的研究

MPPS抽样即多变量与规模成比例的概率抽样,是20世纪90年代才提出来的一种抽样设计。近年来,中国有关部门与美国农业部国家农业署合作,进行了MPPS抽样设计的试点,来解决多目标调查问题。但是MPPS抽样在中国的应用非常有限。对MPPS抽样进行简单的回顾,介绍了它的基本估计,并对其应用进行了数据模拟研究。模拟中采用了系统抽样和泊松抽样的方法,根据实际调查数据得到了明确的结果。还对泊松抽样的一种变形永久随机数抽样的方法进行了模拟研究,并对它的一种误用情况进行了模拟比较,得到了具有说服力的结果。     

房租的“非财产性收入”属性及居民收入分类研究

 内容提要：十七大报告中提出的“财产性收入”的概念,引起了广泛的关注。国家统计局对其进行了界定并通过“城镇住户调查”对居民收入进行了分类和统计。然而,我国的“财产性收入”与联合国国民经济核算体系（SNA）中的内容存在较大冲突,由此进行的居民收入分类和统计也和美、加等发达国家存在很大差异。本文通过SNA的账户设置和经济内涵,分析了房租收入的非财产性收入属性,并在此基础上提出了我国居民收入类型的调整建议。     

A controlled donor imputation system for a one-number census

Summary. The 2001 UK census was a one-number census. An integral part of such a process has been the creation of a transparent census database that has been adjusted for the underenumeration in the 2001 census. The methodology for creating this database is based on a controlled donor imputation system that imputes individuals and households estimated to have been missed in the census. This paper describes this methodology and provides results from a statistical assessment of its performance using data that realistically simulate the census process.