中国证券投资基金羊群行为的进一步研究

根据投资基金中报和年报中的投资明细数据,采用文献[1]的检验方法,对模型进行了更加切合实际的扩展,实证检验了中国投资基金的羊群效应,发现中国投资基金在只买不卖方面的羊群效应高于美国互助基金相应的羊群效应,在既买又卖和只卖不买方面并不高于美国互助基金的买的羊群效应。中国投资基金对各种股本组合、信息技术股票和新股的只买不卖交易中存在比较明显的趋同性。在其他两种交易行为中不存在这种现象。投资基金的投资重心是中、大盘股,这将有利于整个证券市场的稳定。投资基金的投资行为与大盘的走势密切相关。     

Shareholders and managers: Who care more about corporate diversity and employee benefits?

We test two competing theories that explain a firm’s engagement in corporate diversity and employee benefits: socially responsible investment theory and management overinvestment theory. We find that publicly-traded companies with strong shareholder rights are more likely to promote women and/or minorities to the positions of CEO and board of directors in their organizations, conduct business with women- and/or minority-owned operations, and provide better family benefits to their employees than firms with strong management power. These findings indicate that the companies with strong shareholder rights engage more actively in internal aspects of CSR activities, which supports the socially responsible investment theory rather than the management overinvestment theory. Shareholders (i.e. institutional investors) tend to integrate their social goals (i.e. internal CSR issues) and financial goals into their investments. In response to these changes, managers should engage in the internal aspects of corporate social issues more aggressively as the agents of shareholders.     

中国证券投资基金的羊群行为分析

根据投资基金中报和年报中的投资明细数据,采用文献[1]和文献[2]的检验方法,从不同角度实证检验了中国投资基金的羊群效应,发现中国投资基金的羊群效应高于美国互助基金的羊群效应,中国投资基金并未表现出对大盘股、小盘股、新股以及信息技术行业样本股票的特别偏好。投资基金的交易以买为主。投资基金的投资重心有从小盘股向大盘股转变的趋势,这将有利于整个证券市场的稳定。投资基金的交易行为与股市走势密切相关。     

上海股票市场的投资组合分析：基于均值-绝对偏差的折中方法

针对中国股票市场的大规模投资组合分析在文献中尚很少予以讨论.本文基于均值-绝对偏差的折中方法探讨了上海股票市场169种股票的投资组合分析,得到了一些有益的启示和结论.这些结论将有助于市场投资者和监管者深化对上海股票市场投资的理解.本文所使用的投资分析软件Quanz Portfolio具有大规模投资组合的数据处理能力,将是投资者(尤其基金公司)的市场投资组合分析的有用工具.     

Aspirations and Inequality

This paper develops a theory of socially determined aspirations, and the interaction of those aspirations with growth and inequality. The interaction is bidirectional: economy‐wide outcomes determine individual aspirations, which in turn determine investment incentives and social outcomes. Thus aspirations, income, and the distribution of income evolve jointly. When capital stocks lie in some compact set, steady state distributions must exhibit inequality and are typically clustered around local poles. When sustained growth is possible, initial histories matter. Either there is convergence to an equal distribution (with growth) or there is perennial relative divergence across clusters, with within‐cluster convergence. A central feature that drives these results is that aspirations that are moderately above an individual's current standard of living tend to encourage investment, while still higher aspirations may lead to frustration.     

Using Information: A Financial Stakeholders’ Perspective

Complete disclosure is fundamental to ensuring proper and efficient financial transactions. The call for greater levels of disclosure has been a central theme in the socially responsible investment community. However, in today's world, there are differing approaches to the issue of disclosure. On the one hand, there are calls for more disclosure in the wake of debacles such as that illustrated by Enron Corp. On the other hand, there are concerns about security and the possibility that more disclosure might compromise security. What is needed is the identification and exploration of opportunities where the socially responsible investment community collaborates with other stakeholders with the aim of leveraging environmental information to work for positive societal change. In this effort there is a need for new methodologies, new and more sophisticated models with greater predictive power, and increased emphasis on education for the next generation of business leaders.     

中国上市公司“规模效应”的实证研究

本文回顾了异象中公司规模效应的研究历程,分别基于流通值和总市值对深市和沪市的规模效应进行实证分析,研究表明:①作为市值度量的流通值和总市值的选择对不同规模组合收益率的排序没有本质的影响。②深市无论是从总市值还是流通市值的规模排序,其组合呈现出“规模效应”即收益率与规模成反比;而沪市的中盘股投资组合收益率明显好于其它两个组合。③深、沪两市收益率均不存在“季节效应”。     

投资偏好与“特质波动率之谜”——以中国股票市场A股为研究对象

与价格走势平平的股票相比,投资者更愿意选择过去价格变化幅度较大的股票。这种投资偏好是否是产生“特质波动率之谜”的原因呢？本文以中国股票市场A股为研究对象,首先验证中国股票市场“特质波动率之谜”的存在性。随后组合分析和Fama-MacBeth横截面回归分析发现,价格极差可以在一定程度上解释但不能完全解释“特质波动率之谜”。横截面回归结果表明,在价格极差、最大日收益率、换手率三者的共同作用下,特质波动率与股票预期收益之间的负向关系不再显著。由此,对某些特殊股票的投资偏好可能是产生“特质波动率之谜”的主要原因。     

The Challenges of Socially Responsible Investment Among Institutional Investors: Exploring the Links Between Corporate Pension Funds and Corporate Governance

During the last few decades, globalization of finance markets has come under increasing pressure to manage the many risks that companies face due to the negative impact that certain financial crises have had on securities quoted on the stock exchange. Simultaneously, there is a growing tendency among different institutional investors to take into account nonfinancial aspects—social, environmental, and ethical values—of company management. In this respect, increasing numbers of asset managers are aware of the importance of nonfinancial aspects of company management for finance markets. Asset managers integrate corporate social responsibility, sustainability policies and corporate governance strategies as indicators in risk management and the search for long‐term investments. The largest segment of socially responsible investment (SRI) screened and mutual funds are portfolios that are privately managed on behalf of institutions. Socially responsible investors include private and public pension funds, mutual funds, and private accounts that are managed on behalf of institutional investors such as corporations, universities, hospitals, religious institutions, and nonprofit organizations, among others. The aim of this paper is to analyze the development of SRI‐screened management corporate pension plans in the Spanish finance market. Spain is one of the European countries with a less developed SRI institutional market. Since SRI is still at the fledgling stage in the Spanish institutional market, this analysis is restricted to the awareness of SRI among a sample of the total number of corporate pension funds or schemes in Spain. The paper concludes with some proposals to encourage wider SRI acceptance and practice in Spain.     

基于UPM-LPM的增强指数投资策略

增强指数投资策略的理念是基于部分成份股构建指数跟踪组合,以期在跟踪指数趋势的同时,获取超出指数平均收益的超额收益。本文将指数收益率作为目标收益,拓展经典下偏矩（Lower Partial Moment,LPM）的概念,使其适应于增强指数投资策略建模,同时给出上偏矩（Upper Partial Moment,UPM）的定义,进而构建基于UPM-LPM之比的增强指数模型。为解决模型的求解复杂性和高维投资组合的"维数灾难"问题,本文运用非参数核估计方法直接得到跟踪组合的密度函数,进而得到跟踪组合的LPM和UPM的解析表达式,避免对组合中各资产之间的高维联合分布进行估计,大幅度降低了估计的维度,克服"维数灾难"问题。而且LPM和UPM的核估计量是组合头寸的光滑函数,具有任意阶导数,便于优化问题求解。最后,本文运用沪深股票市场上五个常用指数及其成份股数据,检验模型在实际金融市场中的表现,结果表明：本文提出的增强指数模型能够战胜指数,同时实现跟踪指数趋势并获取稳健超额收益的目标。     

考虑社会责任的供应链定价与碳减排决策

由于企业社会责任对供应链的可持续发展具有重要影响,所以,针对考虑企业社会责任的供应链管理进行深入研究是十分必要的。在碳总量控制与交易制度下,针对由一个制造商和一个零售商组成的二级供应链,分别分析零售商、制造商领导情形下供应链成员的定价和碳减排决策,并着重探讨零售商的社会(福利)责任关注行为、低碳技术投资效率和消费者环保意识对企业决策和利润(效用)、总消费者剩余以及社会福利的影响。研究表明:零售价格、碳减排水平以及产品销售量可能随着零售商的社会(福利)责任关注度的提高而同时增加;在零售商领导型供应链中,零售商利润的增加并不总是依赖于低碳技术投资效率(消费者环保意识)的提高;在制造商领导型供应链中,零售商的社会责任关注度的提高可使制造商和零售商同时获益,且制造商可能存在先动劣势。     

Dividend yield and stability versus performance on the German stock market: a descriptive study

It is often examined in the literature whether the dividend yields of stocks correlate with their total returns. This paper analyzes the effect of dividend yield on return as well as on risk and on performance of stocks and stock portfolios on the German market. Not only the influence of dividend yield but also of dividend stability is subject to our analysis. Furthermore, tax aspects are considered. However, this study should rather be seen as an empirical analysis of the influence of dividends as a capital market anomaly than a theoretical based validation approach. Our data set comprises daily adjusted stock prices and dividend payment data from the German capital market over the period 3 January 2000–31 July 2008. This period was characterized by a high volatility of the stock market. In addition to the existing literature examining mainly the long-term influence of dividend yields, we also want to find out whether stocks with high and stable dividend payments are able to reduce the risk of a stock investment in short time periods characterized by extreme conditions. We use blue chips (DAX), stocks of medium-sized companies (MDAX), and stocks of technology firms (TecDAX). Our findings suggest that stock performance generally improves with an increasing dividend yield, where this result is actually based on risk reduction instead of a higher return. However, this risk reduction diminishes with an increasing degree of diversification.     

基于定单流的动态投资策略及实证

引入定单流指标捕捉资金流向, 提出定单冲击系数刻画资金流向的变化速度, 从金融市场微观结构视角, 建立了基于定单流的动态投资策略。从投资者期望效用最大化角度出发, 通过构建Lagrange函数, 推导出了动态投资策略的最优投资权重。选取2009年6月1日--2009年7月31日深证综指指数股票日数据进行实证分析, 实证结果表明, 基于定单流的动态投资策略能取得更好的投资收益。基于成对数据的t检验结果表明, 基于定单流的动态投资策略能获得超额收益。本文的研究为金融市场微观结构视角下的投资策略构建提供了新的方向。     

Health insurance system and resilience to epidemics

We theoretically analyze the resilience (efficiency) of health insurance systems and diverse factors including trace and test technology, infection and contagion rates, and social distancing/lockdown policy, in coping with contagious diseases like COVID-19. Our findings can be summarized as follows. First, public insurance is more resilient than market insurance, as the former's investment in test technology is made at the social optimum, whereas the latter's investment is less. The decentralized behavior of competing insurers leads to a less resilient outcome. Second, resilience decreases as the market becomes more competitive because the externality effect becomes more severe. Third, a higher contagion rate, a more cost-efficient test technology or a higher initial infection rate unless it is not too high, leads to a higher test accuracy level. Fourth, the socially optimal social distancing/lockdown policy is determined by comparison between its relative costs and the benefit from contagion reduction.     

Entry and Exit in OTC Derivatives Markets

We develop a parsimonious model to study the equilibrium and socially optimal decisions of banks to enter, trade in, and possibly exit, an OTC market. Although we endow all banks with the same trading technology, banks' optimal entry and trading decisions endogenously lead to a realistic market structure composed of dealers and customers with distinct trading patterns. We decompose banks' entry incentives into incentives to hedge risk and incentives to make intermediation profits. We show that dealer banks enter more than is socially optimal. In the face of large negative shocks, they may also exit more than is socially optimal when markets are not perfectly resilient.     

碳排放权的非对称拍卖模型及其配置效率

作为我国碳交易体系的试金石,“七省市”试点运营状况如何?是学界和管理层特别关注的一个焦点问题.以碳排放权的初始配置准则为切入点,展开理论探讨与定性分析,发现:在现行的溯源免费配置准则下,试点地区的碳交易市场有明显的“聚类效应”特征,其原因是排放权的误配导致企业逆向选择所致.为了从机制设计本源上消除企业减排的逆向选择,把拍卖有偿配置准则引入碳交易市场中,构建企业减排投资回报率指标,定义排放权的社会最优配置,建立碳排放权的非对称拍卖模型,分析异质性企业在碳排放权拍卖中的投标策略及其拍卖前的减排投资决策行为,剖析企业所有权差异对其减排投资和排放权配置结果的影响,阐述政府补贴企业减排投资的政策效果,基于政府补贴政策效果提出完善我国碳交易市场的相关建议.     

Does the market value corporate response to climate change?

Motivated by the controversial debate on mandatory reductions of greenhouse gases in the U.S., this study explores whether the market values corporate response to tackle carbon dioxide emissions. We measure corporate responses using the measure of media tone based on the positive and negative words in each news article. Our results show that the market reacts favorably to the negative media exposure of corporate response to climate change over the announcement period and the one-year period, which implies that the socially responsible action to tackle climate change is costly. We further find that the positive response is less pronounced for firms from polluting industries and firms with poor environmental performance.     

股市涨跌预测与量化投资策略:基于时变矩成分分析

利用时变矩成分分析提取高阶矩吸收率,改进基于阈值的高阶矩因子个数选择方法,提出基于元素值的联合矩成分分析权重设定,构造了一种基于股票市场高阶矩相关结构的量化投资策略。研究表明,基于矩成分吸收率的投资策略能够对股市涨跌做出有效预测,对于股市的重大系统风险尤为敏感,在熊市中也有良好表现;基于单因子吸收率、累积三因子吸收率和赫芬达尔吸收率的高阶矩投资策略优于二阶矩吸收率投资策略,而三阶矩单因子吸收率投资策略最优,基于元素值权重的投资策略优于基于元素个数权重的投资策略;量化投资策略具有参数稳健性,且可通过优化高阶矩的时变结构对投资效果进行优化。     

不完全市场中相关性风险的对冲策略研究

随着我国资本市场的进一步完善,以及市场波动的更加剧烈,投资者对于相关性风险的关注日益增强,如何对冲相关性风险是一个亟待解决的重要课题。本文在基于跳跃的不完全市场中,以带有跳跃的价格过程为基础,引入相关性随机过程,依据期权的希腊字母对冲原理,构建相关性风险的对冲策略——卖出一份股票指数看跌期权同时买入若干份对应个股的看跌期权和若干份标的股票,使投资组合保持资产波动率以及价格跳跃风险中性,进而通过卖出组合中指数期权的相关性风险溢价来对冲个股组合的相关性风险。本文选取2007年3月到2013年3月香港恒生指数及其成份股期权的日数据用以实证分析,结果表明:该策略能够对冲个股投资组合的相关性风险,且在大部分情况下获得显著为正的收益。本文对事前构建对冲策略以规避极端事件发生时的相关性风险具有重要的参考价值。     

Strategic sustainability and financial performance: exploring abnormal returns

The ongoing empirical debate about whether SRI is associated, if anything, with subpar or surpassing financial performance is characterized by a somewhat indistinct focus and the infeasibility of tapping the full potential of existing models. By indistinct focus, we mean an analysis based on an aggregation of a myriad of SRI factors that potentially affect a firm’s financial performance. The inability of taking full advantage of existing models is reflected by the fact that studies with European data have not been able to comprehensively account for systematic risk tilts. This paper presents a portfolio analysis that overcomes these issues by analyzing a distinct selection of small and innovative firms. We argue that both their strategic implementation of Corporate Social Responsibility and the general growth in socially responsible investments (SRI) lend themselves to an explanation for positive abnormal returns of this portfolio. We account for the idiosyncratic investment style of SRI by introducing a comprehensive pan-European risk-adjusted portfolio analysis based on the Carhart four-factor model. A novel propensity score matching method in conjunction with the estimation of structural models completes the conventional robustness checks in the literature.