A lower bound for the transition density function of a stochastic differential equation

Let W_t be a one-dimensional Brownian motion on the probability space (Ω,F,P), and let dx_t = a(x_t)dt + b(x_t)dw_t, b²(x) > 0, be a one-dimensional Ito stochastic differential equation. For a(x) = a₀ + a₁x + … + a_nxⁿ on a bounded interval we obtain a lower bound for p(t,x,y), the transition density function of the homogeneous Markov process x_t, depending directly on the coefficients a₀,a₁, …, a_n, and b(x).     

Distorted Copulas: Constructions and Tail Dependence

Given a copula C, we examine under which conditions on an order isomorphism ψ of [0, 1] the distortion C _ψ: [0, 1]² → [0, 1], C _ψ(x, y) = ψ{C[ψ^?1(x), ψ^?1(y)]} is again a copula. In particular, when the copula C is totally positive of order 2, we give a sufficient condition on ψ that ensures that any distortion of C by means of ψ is again a copula. The presented results allow us to introduce in a more flexible way families of copulas exhibiting different behavior in the tails.     

Integral Identities for Random Variables

Using a general method for deriving identities for random variables, we find a number of new results involving characteristic functions and generating functions. The method is simply to promote a parameter in an integral relation to the status of a random variable and then take expected values of both sides of the equation. Results include formulas for calculating the characteristic functions for x ², √x, 1/x, x ² + x, R ² = x ² + y ², and so forth in terms of integral transforms of the characteristic functions for x and (x, y), and so forth. Generalizations to higher dimensions can be obtained using the same method. Expressions for inverse/fractional moments, E{n!}, and so forth are also presented, demonstrating the method.     

Partly linear models on Riemannian manifolds

In partly linear models, the dependence of the response y on (x ^T, t) is modeled through the relationship y=x ^T β+g(t)+?, where ? is independent of (x ^T, t). We are interested in developing an estimation procedure that allows us to combine the flexibility of the partly linear models, studied by several authors, but including some variables that belong to a non-Euclidean space. The motivating application of this paper deals with the explanation of the atmospheric SO₂ pollution incidents using these models when some of the predictive variables belong in a cylinder. In this paper, the estimators of β and g are constructed when the explanatory variables t take values on a Riemannian manifold and the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are obtained under suitable conditions. We illustrate the use of this estimation approach using an environmental data set and we explore the performance of the estimators through a simulation study.     

COMPARISON OF THREE NON-PARAMETRIC TESTS FOR BIVARIATE INTERCHANGEABILITY1

Given a random sample(X₁, Y₁), …,(X_n, Y_n) from a bivariate (BV) absolutely continuous c.d.f. H (x, y), we consider rank tests for the null hypothesis of interchangeability H₀: H(x, y). Three linear rank test statistics, Wilcoxon (W_N), sum of squared ranks (SSR_N) and Savage (S_N), are described in Section 1. In Section 2, asymptotic relative efficiency (ARE) comparisons of the three types of tests are made for Morgenstern (Plackett, 1965) and Moran (1969)BV alternatives with marginal distributions satisfying G(x) = F(x/θ) for some θ≠ 1. Both gamma and lognormal marginal distributions are used.     

Critical Scale for a Continuous AIMD Model

A scaled version of the general AIMD model of transmission control protocol (TCP) used in Internet traffic congestion management leads to a Markov process x(t) representing the time dependent data flow that moves forward with constant speed on the positive axis and jumps backward to γx(t), 0 < γ < 1 according to a Poisson clock whose rate α(x) depends on the interval swept in between jumps. We give sharp conditions for Harris recurrence and analyze the convergence to equilibrium on multiple scales (polynomial, fractional exponential, exponential) identifying the critical case xα(x) ～ β. Criticality has different behavior according to whether it occurs at the origin or infinity. In each case, we determine the transient (possibly explosive), null—and positive—recurrent regimes by comparing β to ( ? ln?γ)^{? 1}.     

FIRST-EXIT TIMES FOR POISSON SHOT NOISE

For a shot-noise process X(t) with Poisson arrival times and exponentially diminishing shocks of i.i.d. sizes, we consider the first time T _b at which a given level b > 0 is exceeded. An integral equation for the joint density of T _b and X(T _b ) is derived and, for the case of exponential jumps, solved explicitly in terms of Laplace transforms (LTs). In the general case we determine the ordinary LT of the function ? P(T _b > t) in terms of certain LTs derived from the distribution function H(x; t) = P(X(t) ≤ x), considered as a function of both variables x and t. Moreover, for G(t, u) = P(T _b > t, X(t) < u), that is the joint distribution function of sup_{0 ≤ s ≤ t} X(s) and X(t), an integro-differential equation is presented, whose unique solution is G(t, u).     

Sequential experimental design and response optimisation

We consider the situation where one wants to maximise a functionf(θ,x) with respect tox, with θ unknown and estimated from observationsy _k . This may correspond to the case of a regression model, where one observesy _k =f(θ,x _k )+ε _k , with ε _k some random error, or to the Bernoulli case wherey _k ∈{0, 1}, with Pr[y _k =1|θ,x _k |=f(θ,x _k ). Special attention is given to sequences given by , with an estimated value of θ obtained from (x₁, y₁),...,(x _k ,y _k ) andd _k (x) a penalty for poor estimation. Approximately optimal rules are suggested in the linear regression case with a finite horizon, where one wants to maximize ∑ _i=1 ^N w _i f(θ, x _i ) with {w _i } a weighting sequence. Various examples are presented, with a comparison with a Polya urn design and an up-and-down method for a binary response problem.     

Maximum term of a particular autoregressivesequence with discrete margins

In this paper we consider a stationary sequence of discrete random variables with marginal distribution H(x), obtained by a simple transformation from the max-AR(1) sequence considered by Alpuim (1989). Because discrete distributions impose severe restrictions on the convergence of the normalized maxima to an extreme value distribution, it is seen that in this particular case, whenever H(x) belongs to the domain of attraction of any max-stable distribution, the sequence possesses an extremal index 0 = 0. Nevertheless, it, is possible to obtain a nondegenerate limiting distribution for the linearized maxima by choosing other sets of normalizing constants. Whenever H(x) does not belong to the domain of attraction of any max-stable distribution, but, satisfies adequate conditions, the maxima nearly possess an asymptotic stability with the presence of an extremal index 0 <θ<1.

Motivated by the behaviour of these sequences we obtained a more general result extending the results of Anderson (1970) and Me (Jon nick and Park (1992) over the mixing conditionsD ^(k)(u_n), defined by Chermck et al (1991).

Several examples, obtained after simulation, are presented in order to illustrate the different situations that may occur.     

First-exit times for compound poisson processes for some types of positive and negative jumps

We consider the one-sided and the two-sided first-exit problem for a compound Poisson process with linear deterministic decrease between positive and negative jumps. This process (X(t)) _t≥0 occurs as the workload process of a single-server queueing system with random workload removal, which we denote by M/G _u /G _d /1, where G _u (G _d ) stands for the distribution of the upward (downward) jumps; other applications are to cash management, dams, and several related fields. Under various conditions on G _u and G _d (assuming e.g. that one of them is hyperexponential, Erlang or Coxian), we derive the joint distribution of τ _y =inf{t≥0|X(t)?(0,y)}, y>0, and X(τ _y ) as well as that of T=inf{t≥0|X(t)≤0} and X(T). We also determine the distribution of sup{X(t)|0≤t≤T}.     

A class of tests for testing ‘new is better than used’

A class of tests is proposed for testing H₀ F?(x) = e^?λx, λ > 0, x≥0 vs. H₁ F?(x + y) ≤ F?(x)F?(y), x, y≥0, with strict inequality for some x, y ≥ 0 (F = new is better than used). Efficiency comparisons of some tests within the class are made and a new test is proposed on the basis of these comparisons. Consistency and the asymptotic normality of the class of tests is proved under fairly broad conditions on the underlying entities.     

ON TRANSITION PROBABILITIES OF SKIP-FREE MARKOV CHAINS

Consider an ergodic Markov chain X(t) in continuous time with an infinitesimal matrix Q = (q_ij) defined on a finite state space {0, 1,…, N}. In this note, we prove that if X(t) is skip-free positive (negative, respectively), i.e., q_ij, = 0 for j > i+ 1 (i > j+ 1), then the transition probability p_ij(t) = Pr[X(t)=j | X(0) =i] can be represented as a linear combination of p_0N(t) (p^(m)_(N0)(t)), 0 ≤ m ≤N, where f^(m)(t) denotes the mth derivative of a function f(t) with f⁽⁰⁾(t) =f(t). If X(t) is a birth-death process, then p_ij(t) is represented as a linear combination of p_0N^(m)(t), 0 ≤m≤N - |i-j|.     

A recipe for bivariate copulas

ABSTRACT

We give conditions on a ? ?1, b ∈ ( ? ∞, ∞), and f and g so that C_{a, b}(x, y) = xy(1 + af(x)g(y))^b is a bivariate copula. Many well-known copulas are of this form, including the Ali–Mikhail–Haq Family, Huang–Kotz Family, Bairamov–Kotz Family, and Bekrizadeh–Parham–Zadkarmi Family. One result is that we produce an algorithm for producing such copulas. Another is a one-parameter family of copulas whose measures of concordance range from 0 to 1.     

Berry–Esseen type bounds in heteroscedastic errors-in-variables model

ABSTRACT

Consider the heteroscedastic partially linear errors-in-variables (EV) model y_i = x_iβ + g(t_i) + ε_i, ξ_i = x_i + μ_i (1 ? i ? n), where ε_i = σ_ie_i are random errors with mean zero, σ²_i = f(u_i), (x_i, t_i, u_i) are non random design points, x_i are observed with measurement errors μ_i. When f( · ) is known, we derive the Berry–Esseen type bounds for estimators of β and g( · ) under {e_i,?1 ? i ? n} is a sequence of stationary α-mixing random variables, when f( · ) is unknown, the Berry–Esseen type bounds for estimators of β, g( · ), and f( · ) are discussed under independent errors.     

An explanation of generalized profile likelihoods

Let X, T, Y be random vectors such that the distribution of Y conditional on covariates partitioned into the vectors X = x and T = t is given by f(y; x, ), where = (, (t)). Here is a parameter vector and (t) is a smooth, real–valued function of t. The joint distribution of X and T is assumed to be independent of and . This semiparametric model is called conditionally parametric because the conditional distribution f(y; x, ) of Y given X = x, T = t is parameterized by a finite dimensional parameter = (, (t)). Severini and Wong (1992. Annals of Statistics 20: 1768–1802) show how to estimate and (·) using generalized profile likelihoods, and they also provide a review of the literature on generalized profile likelihoods. Under specified regularity conditions, they derive an asymptotically efficient estimator of and a uniformly consistent estimator of (·). The purpose of this paper is to provide a short tutorial for this method of estimation under a likelihood–based model, reviewing results from Stein (1956. Proceedings of the Third Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, vol. 1, University of California Press, Berkeley, pp. 187–196), Severini (1987. Ph.D Thesis, The University of Chicago, Department of Statistics, Chicago, Illinois), and Severini and Wong (op. cit.).     

The Characterization of the Symmetric Lorenz Curves by Doubly Truncated Mean Function

We characterize symmetric Lorenz curves by the relation m(x, μ²/x) = μ (where μ =E(X) and m(x, y) = E(X | x ≤ X ≤ y) is the doubly truncated mean function). We establish that the points of the r.v. which generate the symmetric points on the Lorenz curve are x and μ²/x, and that all the distribution functions defined on the same support which are generators of the symmetric Lorenz curves have the same mean. We obtain the conditions under which doubly truncated distributions generate symmetrical Lorenz curves.     

OPTIMAL DESIGNS FOR FITTING A PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS REGRESSION MODEL TO DATA SUBJECT TO CENSORING

Suppose the probability model for failure time data, subject to censoring, is specified by the hazard function λ(t)exp(β_T x), where x is a vector of covariates. Analytical difficulties involved in finding the optimal design are avoided by assuming that λ is completely specified and by using D-optimality based on the information matrix for β Optimal designs are found to depend on β, but some results of practical consequence are obtained. It is found that censoring does not affect the choice of design appreciably when β^T x ≥ 0 for all points of the feasible region, but may have an appreciable effect when β_ix_i 0, for all i and all points in the feasible experimental region. The nature of the effect is discussed in detail for the cases of one and two parameters. It is argued that in practical biomedical situations the optimal design is almost always the same as for uncensored data.     

D-Optimal Axial Designs for Quadratic and Cubic Additive Mixture Models

The paper discusses D-optimal axial designs for the additive quadratic and cubic mixture models σ_1≤i≤q(β_ix_i + β_iix²_i) and σ_1≤i≤q(β_ix_i + β_iix²_i + β_iiix³_i), where x_i≥ 0, x₁ + . . . + x_q = 1. For the quadratic model, a saturated symmetric axial design is used, in which support points are of the form (x₁, . . . , x_q) = [1 ? (q?1)δ_i, δ_i, . . . , δ_i], where i = 1, 2 and 0 ≤δ₂ <_{δ1 ≤} 1/(q ?1). It is proved that when 3 ≤q≤ 6, the above design is D-optimal if δ₂ = 0 and δ₁ = 1/(q?1), and when q≥ 7 it is D-optimal if δ₂ = 0 and δ₁ = [5q?1 ? (9q²?10q + 1)^1/2]/(4q²). Similar results exist for the cubic model, with support points of the form (x₁, . . . , x_q) = [1 ? (q?1)δ_i, δ_i, . . . , δ_i], where i = 1, 2, 3 and 0 = δ₃ <_δ2 < δ_{1 ≤}1/(q?1). The saturated D-optimal axial design and D-optimal design for the quadratic model are compared in terms of their efficiency and uniformity.     

Measuring robustness for weighted distributions: Bayesian perspective

There are many situations where the usual random sample from a population of interest is not available, due to the data having unequal probabilities of entering the sample. The method of weighted distributions models this ascertainment bias by adjusting the probabilities of actual occurrence of events to arrive at a specification of the probabilities of the events as observed and recorded. We consider two different classes of contaminated or mixture of weight functions, Γ _a ={w(x):w(x)=(1−ε)w ₀(x)+εq(x),q∈Q} and Γ _g ={w(x):w(x)=w ₀ ^1−ε (x)q ^ε(x),q∈Q} wherew ₀(x) is the elicited weighted function,Q is a class of positive functions and 0≤ε≤1 is a small number. Also, we study the local variation of ϕ-divergence over classes Γ _a and Γ _g . We devote on measuring robustness using divergence measures which is based on the Bayesian approach. Two examples will be studied.