Economic mobility of young workers in the 1970s and 1980s

This paper uses longitudinal data to estimate cohort changes in the earnings trajectories of young adult males. Levels of earnings are uniformly lower for male workers turning 21 between 1980 and 1991 than in 1970-1979, although rates of earnings growth are roughly comparable. Among males turning 21 before 1980, six in 10 (60%) of all men and seven in 10 (71%) college-educated men attained earnings levels by age 30 that were at least twice the poverty level. Corresponding fractions for workers turning 21 between 1980 and 1991 were considerably lower (42% and 56%). Recent cohorts from all demographic subgroups appeared to have more difficulty than older cohorts in attaining middle-class earnings.     

Changes in the Quantum of Russian Fertility During the 1980s and Early 1990s

To investigate whether Russia's dramatic fertility changes pre‐ and post‐Soviet times were due primarily to tempo effects, as has been argued recently, or to quantum effects, this study standardizes for factors that distort conventional fertility indexes. A time series spanning 1978–93 of period parity‐progression ratios for the Russian Federation is constructed applying the PADTFR technique, which takes into account age, parity, and time elapsed since the birth of the previous child, to data from the Russian micro census of February 1994 (2.8 million maternity histories). Both the fertility rise of the 1980s and the fertility fall of the early 1990s are found to be primarily due to changes in the probability of a second birth. The impact of tempo on the conventional TFR is significant, but of relatively minor magnitude in comparison to changes in the quantum of fertility. The social and economic context in which the fertility change took place is described.     

Excess mortality of girls in the Middle East in the 1970s and 1980s: Patterns,correlates and gaps in research

Abstract. Comparative research on girls' excess mortality in the Middle East is rare. Estimates from the United Nations suggest that absolute excess mortality of girls was not universal in the 1970s and was uncommon by the 1980s. Compared with historical Northwest Europe at similar levels of boys' under-five mortality, however, girls' under-five mortality was high in both periods. Studies of the allocation of food and health care suggest that parents invested less and provided less curative care to girls than boys where girls' excess mortality was greatest. Urbanization and women's relative economic opportunity account for much of the variation in relative mortality. Unexplained excess mortality of girls in the Middle East compared with historical Northwest Europe may be attributable to differences in socio-cultural, political, and economic systems that influence the forms of discrimination exercised against girls; however, inadequate measurement of these variables limits their consideration in comparative research.     

Anatomy of A Crisis: Relations Between the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and the Federal Republic of Germany from the 1970s to the 1980s

This analysis takes for its starting point an internal UnitedNations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) memorandum, whichcriticized West German asylum practices in rather strong terms,leaked, and generated considerable controversy in the FederalRepublic of Germany (FRG), internationally and within UNHCR.The article inscribes these events within the broader evolutionof the relationship between UNHCR and the FRG to present themas one of several initiatives envisaged within the refugee agencyin order to bend West Germany's increasingly restrictive stanceon asylum issues. In this sense, UNHCR's attempts to use confrontationas a diplomatic tool shed light on an international organization'savenues for influence and their limits. Tracing the emergenceof the UNHCR's chosen course of action and attempting to assessits repercussions, the study emphasizes the interaction betweenvarious members of UNHCR staff in the organization's branchoffice in Bonn and its headquarters in Geneva, as well as betweenpolitical factions within the FRG. Calling to mind that neitherUNHCR nor the FRG are unitary actors, this opens the way foran analysis of the role individual agency may play within largercollective actors.     

改量开放以来中国流动人口变动的九大趋势①

农业是中国的基础产业和战略产业。改革开放后，中共中央先后公布10个一号文件，以促进农村的改革与发展。     

Population growth and Conservation organizations,with particular reference to the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN)

Although the percentage growth rate of world population has declined recently, a further doubling to ten billion before stabilization is projected. Prompt action to reduce this figure is needed, but some environmental and development organizations are equivocal about this. The World Conservation Strategy, published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN), does not call for action on population growth, and the history of a recent IUCN paper,Human Populations and the World Conservation Strategy, suggests that the IUCN does not regard direct action to check population growth as urgent. However, there are recent indications that a clearer commitment may be developing.John Davoll, Ph.D., was lately director of the Conservation Society, now succeeded by The Conservation Trust. The author wishes to thank Jack Parsons for many helpful discussions during the preparation of this paper.