The semantic distinction between "risk" and "danger": a linguistic analysis

The analysis combines frame semantic and corpus linguistic approaches in analyzing the role of agency and decision making in the semantics of the words "risk" and "danger" (both nominal and verbal uses). In frame semantics, the meanings of "risk" and of related words, such as "danger," are analyzed against the background of a specific cognitive-semantic structure (a frame) comprising frame elements such as Protagonist, Bad Outcome, Decision, Possession, and Source. Empirical data derive from the British National Corpus (100 million words). Results indicate both similarities and differences in use. First, both "risk" and "danger" are commonly used to represent situations having potential negative consequences as the result of agency. Second, "risk" and "danger," especially their verbal uses (to risk, to endanger), differ in agent-victim structure, i.e., "risk" is used to express that a person affected by an action is also the agent of the action, while "endanger" is used to express that the one affected is not the agent. Third, "risk," but not "danger," tends to be used to represent rational and goal-directed action. The results therefore to some extent confirm the analysis of "risk" and "danger" suggested by German sociologist Niklas Luhmann. As a point of discussion, the present findings arguably have implications for risk communication.     

巧实力主义

经济低迷,经营环境恶劣,消费者行为方式突变,靠什么赢得竞争?紧握消费者的手,用非凡的智慧,创新的思维,宽阔的视野,打造巧实力!巧实力主义,以变应变!企业逆风飞扬的关键,恶劣环境下的竞争法则!     

Variance Estimators for Three "Probabilities of Causation"

This article introduces the definitions of three "probabilities of causation" suggested by Pearl (1999), which are used to evaluate the causal effect of an exposure on a disease in epidemiological studies. Pearl (1999) and Tian and Pearl (2000a, 2000b) provided identification formulas for three "probabilities of causation" from statistical data under some assumptions. In order to examine the estimation accuracy problem, this article derives variance estimators for three "probabilities of causation" correspondent to each case in Pearl (1999) and at the same time clarify their properties. In addition, we conduct simulation experiments and show that the proposed method can approximate sufficiently to the variance of "probabilities of causation." The results of this article provide a complete framework for using "probabilities of causation" effectively in order to analyze responsibility and susceptibility in epidemiological studies.     

Approximations and Heuristics for the "Cause-Modified" Life Table

Life-table analysis can help to gauge the lifetime impacts that accrue from modifications to (age-specific) baseline mortality. Modifications of interest include those stemming from risk-factor-related exposures or from interventions. The specific algorithm used in these analyses can be called a cause-modified life table (a generalization of the cause-deleted life table). The author presents an approach for approximating that algorithm and uses it to obtain remarkably simplified expressions for approximating three indices of common interest: life-years lost (LYL), excess lifetime risk ratio (ELRR), and risk of exposure-induced death (REID). These efforts are restricted to the special case of multiplicative increases to baseline mortality (modeled as an excess rate ratio, ERR). The simplified expressions effectively "break open" what is often treated as a "black-box" calculation. Several insights result. For a practical range of risk factor impacts (ERRs), each index can be related to the ERR as a function of a baseline summary statistic and a "characteristic number" specific to the population and cause of interest. Conveniently, those numbers help form "rules of thumb" for translating among the three indices and suggest heuristics for extrapolating indices across populations and causes of death.     

保险创新与创新型寿险产品——“基金连锁”

“基金连锁”是一种融保险保障和投资收益为一体、代表了国际保险业最新潮流和趋势的非传统寿险产品。本文较系统地研究了“基金连锁”产品区别于传统型寿险产品的创新实质和基本特征,详细介绍并分析了国际“基金连锁”产品产生的历史背景和发展趋势,结合美国变额寿险产品的运用和兼管政策,提出了我国有关监管建议和策略。     

The "moment of death"

The "moment of death," once a dominant concept in preparing for a "good death", has been eclipsed by a focus on the wider concept of the "dying trajectory". However, findings from interviews with 25 bereaved individuals suggest that dying loved ones' final moments may still be experienced as highly significant in their own right. In some accounts the dying individual's final moments did not feature or made little impression, either because the survivor was not present, or there was no obviously definable moment, or because other, usually medical factors, such as whether to resuscitate the person, took precedence. However, in six cases such moments were constructed as profound, special, and memorable occasions. These constructions are explored in relation to achieving a good death, the dying trajectory as a whole, and making sense of the bereavement experience. Their implications for sociological theories of identity and embodiment are also considered.     

不同“融资铜”模式的风险识别与警示

针对现实中防范"融资铜"风险的需要,本文归纳提炼出三种不同的"融资铜"模式,并就其操作过程中所面临的利率风险、人民币价格波动风险和标的物价格波动风险及其联动性进行深入剖析;采用GARCH-Copula模型,利用上述风险的收益数据及风险因子数据(2011年5月至2014年4月)对单一风险及综合风险进行识别与模拟,对不同模式中综合风险分布进行对比分析,根据在险价值做出警示。结果表明:"融资铜"是一种套利行为,其综合风险收益具有右偏特性,并明显呈现出尖峰厚尾的风险分布特征,相同置信水平下在险价值显著高于单一风险在险价值;其存在极值损失,发生极值损失对企业自身及金融系统会造成严重影响,因此相关监管机构必须对"融资铜"加以重视并实施控制,以引导资金回归实体经济之中。     

The Weakest Link: Demonstrating the Inconsistency of "Appropriate Levels of Protection" in Australia-Salmon

In Australia-Salmon, the WTO Appellate Body found Australia to be in violation of the WTO SPS Agreement based on the inconsistency of the "appropriate level of protection" underlying various SPS measures. Article 5.5 of the SPS Agreement prohibits arbitrary or unjustifiable distinctions in "appropriate levels of protection" if such distinctions result in discrimination or a disguised restriction on international trade. In Australia-Salmon, Canada challenged Australia's import ban on salmon. Australia permitted the entry of other fish products that were known to host some of the same diseases cited by Australia in justifying its salmon import ban. The distinction in the "appropriate levels of protection" between Australia's regulation of salmon and its treatment of these other fish products was found to be "arbitrary or unjustified" and to have "resulted in a restriction on international trade."Australia-Salmon was the first WTO decision to find an Article 5.5 violation. Canada successfully made a "weakest link" argument to undercut Australia's regulatory justification. The decision rests on the relationship between the risk purportedly justifying the salmon import ban and the risk seemingly ignored in Australia's treatment of other fish products-the regulatory "situations" compared concerned the identical pathogens with the identical potential consequences. As such, Australia-Salmon may be an example of a category of regulatory "chains" that are peculiarly exposed to Article 5.5 challenge. In responding to the Appellate Body's ruling, Australia reduced its limits on salmon and imposed new restrictions on the other fish products. The outcome suggests that a challenge of one SPS measure under Article 5.5 may lead to the imposition of new restrictions on other imported products-an unexpected result for the free trade regime.     

“盟主-成员”型战略联盟的利润分配

"盟主 成员"型战略联盟是企业战略联盟的主要形式之一。而利润分配问题是战略联盟矛盾的焦点。本文分别探讨对称信息和非对称信息条件下"盟主 成员"型战略联盟的利润分配问题。     

中国制造业“新型化”状况的实证分析——基于我国30个地区制造业评价研究

走新型工业化道路必须改变传统的工业化发展模式,运用新的理念指导中国制造业发展。本文界定了新型制造业的概念,在大量的统计数据基础上,建立了制造业“新型化”程度的评价指标体系,应用主成分分析方法对我国30个地区制造业经济创造能力、科技竞争能力、资源环境保护能力和制造业“新型化”程度进行了比较分析和聚类分析,归纳了各类地区的制造业发展特征。     

建立“世界级企业”：优势、路径与战略选择

针对中国企业提高国际竞争力的问题,运用"世界级企业"的概念和企业国际化战略的相关理论,分析中国企业建立国际竞争优势的战略实践,提出中国发展世界级企业的必要性,阐述了中国企业成为"世界级企业"所具有的国家特有优势和需要建立的企业特有优势,指出了成为"世界级企业"的路径与战略选择。"世界级企业"概念的提出及其对相关问题的阐述,不仅为中国企业构建国际竞争优势提供思路和借鉴,而且也是对中国特色的国际化战略理论的深化和发展。     

Exploring the "Psychometric Paradigm": Comparisons Between Aggregate and Individual Analyses

The "psychometric paradigm" developed by Slovic, Fischhoff, and Lichtenstein was a landmark in research about public attitudes toward risks. One problem with this work, however, was that (at least initially) it did not attempt to distinguish between individuals or groups of people, except "experts" vs. "lay people." This paradigm produced a "cognitive map" of hazards, and the assumption seemed to be that the characteristics identified were inherent attributes of risk. This paper examines the validity of this assumption. A questionnaire survey similar to those designed by Slovic et al. was conducted, but the data were analyzed at both the aggregate level, using mean scores, and at the level of individuals ( N = 131 Norwich residents). The results reported here demonstrate that (1) individuals vary in their perception of the same risk issue; (2) individuals vary in their rating of the same risk characteristics on the same risk issue; and (3) some of the strong intercorrelations observed between risk characteristics at the aggregate level are not supported when the same data are analysed at the level of individuals. Despite these findings, the relationship between risk characteristics and risk perceptions inferred by the psychometric paradigm did hold true at the level of individuals, for most—but not all—of the characteristics. In particular, the relationship between "lack of knowledge to those exposed" and risk perceptions appears to be a complex one, a finding which has important implications for risk communication strategies.     

Natural law and the "right to die"

Over the last two decades social concerns with the "right to die" have grown beyond the ability of our governmental and judicial institutions to consistently deal with them. One reason for this difficulty has been the unavailability of any legal or judicial standard that is consistent with American conceptions of liberty, morality, and justice. This article attempts to examine the theory of natural law to determine whether it may provide a consistent standard for resolving these difficult questions. As natural law theories are traced through history, they lead directly to the United States where a uniquely American interpretation became one of the foundational principles for our constitution. By applying these theories to the contemporary question of the "right to die," natural law can again provide the foundational principles needed to develop standards for dealing with such questions that are consistent with our historical, philosophical, and political traditions.     

中国管理学建构与演化——基于哲学四分法与管理文化结构的推演

按照事物存在与运行的"一分为四"法则,管理作为事物运动的形式是由分构运动、竞构运动、转化运动与整合运动所构成的。历史演进中的中国(管理)文化观是注重整体性、运行和合机制的合一观,欧美(管理)文化观是注重结构性、运行分竞机制的分构观。由欧美文化缘起,东西方文化融合的现代科学文化观与科学管理观是注重系统性、运行整分合机制的结构观。基于中国管理文化的存行结构和中国企业管理存行的现实,中国管理学应以管理过程结构观为核心理念,以管理过程"分竞转合"的四分法则为结构方法,以"和谐管理"的优先设计与能动演化为路径方法,来实现其在中国的建构和演化。     

推进高科技企业自主创新的“研中学”模型

通过对"干中学"模型与"研中学"模型的学习效应和经济效应的比较,说明"干中学"模型的学习效应是有限的,"研中学"模型能推进高科技企业自主创新,因而产生的经济效应和社会效应都大于"干中学"模型;进而根据演化经济学的分析框架,建立了"研中学"促进高科技企业自主创新的演化模型,从而揭示了"研中学"模型在促进高科技企业自主创新中的核心作用;最后依据该演化模型为高科技企业推进"研中学"模型提供了策略.     

管理与文化的关系探讨

管理与文化的关系在学术界有众多争论,二者构成一了个纠缠的“结”(com p lex)。管理学追求普适性,而文化表现特殊性,二者之结导致管理学研究出现了相应的偏差。文化在管理中的作用包括价值定位、优先选择、惯习支配、思维方式4个方面,对这4个方面的管理学研究,最终要形成超越特殊性的普适性学说。所谓中国式管理和东方管理学,正是在这一纽结上陷入了歧途。相当多的管理文化研究,实际上是管理经验总结而背离了管理学的普适要求。管理学中对文化的重视,需要回归管理学的普适性。     

The future of American health care in the "post-reform" era

"As the debate over health care reform rages in Washington, the market is reforming itself. For any given market, it's a question of 'How soon will it hit?', not 'Will it hit?'" Health care reform and market restructuring are ushering in a new era of integrated health care. Although the future is not fully clear, there are at least three competing models for the creation of regional and statewide health systems that will integrate the financing and delivery of services to large enrolled populations of consumers: Payer-driven networks. Provider-sponsored systems. Partnership models. Whatever the future scenario, physician executives will play a larger, more dominant role. Research on integrated health systems has identified three critical success factors for future success: physician-hospital integration, clinical integration and information integration. For managed care to be successful, there must be clinical leadership. The essence of managing care is clinical efficiency, based on "critical-path" treatment protocols and real-time patient care management, supported by integrated information systems.     

生态税与社会就业：“双重红利假说”的视角

基于生态税"双重红利"假说的综合性税制改革是90年代以来各国政府和学术界关注的热点之一.针对中国当前环境问题和就业问题这两个突出矛盾,本文基于"双重红利"假说的思想,提出了一个局部均衡模型,就生态税对两者的影响进行了探讨,分析了其解决中国现实问题的预期效果和限制因素.本文的研究表明,生态税能否达到双重红利的效果与多个因素有关,特别是与企业所处行业的污染治理成本紧密相关,并不能一概而论,在政府征税能力不强,企业逃税比较普遍的环境下,政府的直接补贴未必能实现补贴的初衷.建议在引入法律意义上的生态税税种之前,先在一些地区或行业进行试点,基于我国实际状况的财税改革措施可能会有更好的实际效果.     

企业技术联盟与一类“产学研”合作技术创新模式选择研究

面向创新网络,将企业间与"产学研"合作创新模式进行统一考虑,建立了企业技术联盟和一类"产学研"合作技术创新模式选择动态博弈模型。在投入规模、投入比例、产品价格与创新利润等均衡变量的基础上,分析了企业间、企业-高校间资源共享进行合作研发的条件:探讨"产学研-集成创新模式"下技术许可与合资企业2种模式的有效选择问题:研究了由企业联合体模式向"产学研-集成创新模式"进行演化的过程及条件。