塞西执政以来的埃及经济改革及其成效

近代以来,埃及出现过三次工业化浪潮,有力地推动了本国的现代化进程。在穆巴拉克执政后期,埃及经济遭遇了地租经济和实体经济双重衰落的危机。2011年中东剧变爆发后,埃及经济发展凋敝,社会矛盾突出。塞西在稳定政局后开始进行经济改革,主要内容包括金融改革、财政改革以及基础设施建设。金融改革措施包括放开汇率与提高利率;财政改革措施包括提高税收、推行销售税改增值税以及削减物价补贴;基础设施建设方面推出了多个大型建设项目。塞西推行改革可利用的资源有限,改革时间还不长,"救火"特点明显,尚未触及埃及经济的结构性问题,即如何使实体经济成为埃及经济的主体。从成效来看,塞西的改革措施阻止了埃及经济的恶化,为进一步改革奠定了基础,但埃及真正走出经济危机尚需时日。     

危机不是导火索,是催化剂

6月底,"钱荒"袭来,海内外关于中国面临危机的声音再次响起.面对银行间资金面吃紧,央行起初并未出手放水,这一举动,迅速被英国巴克莱银行总结成"不刺激、去杠杆和调结构"的"克强经济学",并且预言,"克强经济学"可能短期内使中国经济某月增幅出现3％的低点,出现"临时硬着陆".     

对中国金融业经营模式的思考

金融业是现代经济的核心，其业务经营方式也随着经济社会的发展经历了一系列的变化。随着金融危机的缓和，世界经济进入了一个相对平稳的时期——后危机时代，但是由于固有的矛盾没有或是不可能完全解决，因而危机过后的经济发展仍存在诸多不确定因素，特别是在金融领域，也不可避免地存在许多摩擦，关于金融业的经营模式也引起了一些新的讨论。本文对金融业经营模式的发展趋势进行了回顾和展望，在此基础上分析了分业、混业的争论热点问题，针对我国金融业发展现状，提出了较具现实性和可操作性的对策建议。     

全球金融风暴下中小民营企业生存现状及其应对之策——以浙江省温州地区为例

由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融风暴,已经影响到我国实体经济。危机对实体经济的影响到底有多大,主要表现在哪些方面,以及如何应对?本文在深入调研的基础上,试图通过对浙江省温州地区民营企业的解读,来回应当前这些现实问题。     

危机 眼界 发展——记2009（第六届）中国薪酬管理高层论坛

“金融危机真的来了!”这是2009（第六届）中国薪酬管理高层论坛与会者的普遍感受。2008年三季度以来,金融危机对我国实体经济的影响日益显现,金融危机和降薪潮对收入分配制度改革带来巨大挑战。如何正确、客观地认识危机的影响？如何在“危”中把握“机”？如何在危机中为长远发展打下坚实的基础？……     

当就业遭遇经济危机

春天即将到来,然而对于很多大学毕业生,失业白领、返乡农民工来说,"寒冬"的结束似乎遥遥无期。肇始于美国次贷危机的金融危机,正在不断地"蚕食"我国的实体经济,由其引发的减员、降薪、倒闭、失业潮正在使一些中国劳动者失去"饭碗"。大学生们迷茫着     

“里根经济学”适合中国吗?

近日中国一些被称为"新供给主义"的学术思潮开始浮出水面,然而供给学派出山,从来就不是什么好征兆,因为自资本主义诞生以来,人类经济极少出现供给的问题,一直是需求的问题.而当供给被人提出的时候,无疑是实体经济出现了巨大的危机,当年的美国就是这样.     

企业薪酬体系：望闻问切

随着经济危机由虚拟经济向实体经济的蔓延，经济寒流开始链条式的传递，年后国内很多行业开始表现出萎缩乃至是停滞的症状，甚至那些已经跨入世界五百强的企业也没有幸免于难。危机面前各个企业纷纷采取了不同的应对措施，常见的有：各个环节上控制成本、裁员、降薪、轮岗、减少工时等等应急性措施，但是企业的任何举动，都时刻影响着员工的忠诚度和工作积极性，进而影响着企业的效益，     

校企合作与数控加工专业课程改革探讨

当前,我国正处在经济结构、产业结构调整和经济增长方式转变的重要时期,国务院常务会议审议通过《中国制造2025》,以及习近平总书记提出的"劳动光荣、技能宝贵、创造伟大"的重要指示,对新时期技工教育的发展和改革提出了许多新的要求.如何适应新的经济和社会发展,改革技工院校教学和课程模式是技工教育工作者现在和未来共同探讨的主题.技工院校有针对性地为企业培养人才,提高人才的实用性与实效性,使培养出来的学生更好地与企业需求无缝对接,既是技工院校适应社会经济调结构、转方式,增强劳动者适应企业转型升级的要求,也是新形势下技工院校增强吸引力、提升竞争力、扩大影响力、实现可持续发展的要求.校企合作要从国家赢、学校赢、企业赢、学生赢等多方面出发,全方位开展校企合作.     

欣欣向荣的埃及金融业

在全球经济加速发展的形势下,埃及政府坚持“和平、稳定、发展”的方针,对金融业进行了全面的调整,大规模地推动国有银行和保险公司的私有化进程.埃及经济1996年的增长率为4.3%,1997年的增长率为5.5%,20O0年有望达到8%.作为“领头羊”的金融业为埃及经济带来的勃勃生机有目共睹.一、改革振兴(一)迅速崛起的证券市场近几年来,埃及政府对国有经济进行了大规模的结构改造,坚定积极地推动国有企业的私有化进程,仅1997年,就出售国有企业近100亿埃镑.迅速崛起的埃及证券市场不仅成了经济结构私有化进程吸收、消化的蓄水池,而且成了私有企业吸纳中长期资金的稳定渠道.埃及高层经济界人士清晰地认识到:建立证券市场是推动经济发展和增强金融市场运作能力的核心.为了深化经济改革,埃及政府     

Financial Intermediation Modernization in Countries with Transition Economy

During the modern phase of economic reforms directed at the establishment of market economy, many countries with transition economies face the challenge of solving the issue of formation and rational usage of internal sources of financing the real sector of the economy, as well as attracting considerable volume of direct foreign investment. In general, financial market imperfections hold back innovation and growth, and that public policy can complement financial markets. Therefore, the most relevant issue at the present time is the formation of attendant and complex supervision institutions, as well as an exigency of innovative economy governance as mainframe principles for further banking system elaboration and financial sector development in general. We have taken Armenia as a case study for transition economy as far as Armenia is currently in the stage of capital market development through integration into international financial markets.      

FINANCIAL CRISES,OUTPUT LOSSES,AND THE ROLE OF STRUCTURAL REFORMS

Financial crises take a heavy toll on output growth. We assess the role of structural reforms in reducing the output losses resulting from financial crises across advanced economies, emerging and developing economies, and low‐income developing economies. We also revisit the role of macroeconomic policies in this context. The impact of crises on output growth differs between types of crises and economies, thus warranting sample splits along these lines. Some but not all reforms and policies help to reduce the output losses of crises in the medium term, highlighting the need not to overgeneralize the effectiveness of reforms and policies. Further research is warranted to further explore the heterogeneity in the impact of financial crises on output growth and to better understand when and how specific structural reforms and macroeconomic policies can mitigate the output costs of financial crises. (JEL E32, E44, E63, G28, O47)     

从产业发展演进探索上海产业转型

"创新驱动发展、经济转型升级"是上海产业发展应遵循的总方针。行业比重处于扩张期的、对国民经济拉动作用大于社会平均水平的行业属于未来需要重点关注和发展的行业。上海未来产业发展要关注:提高新一代信息技术产业、新能源产业的能级;进一步做强上海高端制造业品牌;提升金融、贸易、航运、信息等服务业水平;发挥旅游业对上海经济的带动作用;调整、转型,发挥重化工业在上海经济中的作用;不可忽视建筑业、房地产业在经济发展中的作用。     

上海国际金融中心建设与产业结构转型升级的互动机制研究

成熟国际金融中心的发展历程证明,国际金融中心的成长必然伴随着当地产业结构的高端化。这反映了二者之间相互促进、相互支撑的逻辑关系和内在要求,也是国际金融中心依托并服务于实体经济的根本表现。然而从上海国际金融中心建设和产业发展的实践来看,二者本质上仍然处于一种外生联系下的多重不匹配状态,从而一定程度上形成了对彼此的制约。未来深化完善二者的良性互动机制,应成为上海实践创新驱动、转型发展以及迈向全球城市目标的战略选择。     

REFORM SUPPORT IN TIMES OF CRISIS: THE ROLE OF FAMILY TIES

We argue that an important determinant of voters' support for economic reform is the strength of family ties. While the “crisis hypothesis” predicts that crises facilitate reform, we show in a political economy model that this relation can break down, and even reverse, when agents take into account the effect of reform on their family members. Applied to southern European countries with strong family ties, the model rationalizes why the extremely high (youth) unemployment following the Great Recession has not led to more substantial labor market reforms. In such countries austerity might block rather than foster additional structural reforms. (JEL D64, D72, J48)     

全球金融风险及中国的对策

当前,全球金融危机深层次影响正逐步显现,全球经济和金融体系的风险还在积聚,经济复苏的基础仍很脆弱,危机远远没有结束。在全球金融危机持续发酵的过程中,按照G20峰会确定的改革方向,金融稳定理事会、巴塞尔委员会等国际组织正共同努力推动金融监管改革,但金融体系长期积累的问题短期内难以消化,还需要全球政策制定者和监管当局加强政策协调,凝聚共识,在刺激经济增长和实施长期结构化改革之间寻求平衡。针对金融领域存在的风险隐患,中国为坚守不发生系统性和区域性金融风险的底线,必须完善相关配套政策,全面构建中国银行业的审慎监管体系。     

A Characterization of the Argentinian production sector prior to the 1998 crisis

This paper formally characterizes the Argentinian production sector in the period previous to the last crisis. To do so, we jointly estimate the capital stock, its depreciation rate, and the aggregate production function of the Argentinian economy during the 90s. In this respect, the paper not only completes the Argentinian statistics, but also proposes new estimation methods, goes beyond the usual qualitative and financial studies carrying out a quantitative analysis in real terms of the Argentinian production sector, and provides the government with a powerful instrument to design and evaluate economic policies. The paper concludes that the Argentinian capital stock is obsolete, scarce, and, from the real economy point of view, one of the main determinants of the crisis suffered by the country since 1998.     

Die Legitimität von Finanzregimen

In this article we propose a financial regime typology that adds the role of cultural legitimacy to financial market regulation. Bridging Comparative Political Economy and Economic Sociology we refer to a German Weberian tradition of institutionalist research that has stressed the intermediate position of institutions between social values and concrete market action. Financial regimes do not only define formal rules and organizational patterns, they also install symbolic boundaries between legitimate and illegitimate finance, providing cultural acceptance to these morally and historically “problematic” markets. The article then explores four fields of institutional regulation of stock exchanges in Germany and UK since the 19th century: (1) the creation of an official arena, (2) rules of market access, (3) the legitimate trading goods and (4) rules for penalizing misconduct. We show that German financial regulation was integrative and wanted to protect the real economy by corporatively embedding finance and restrain harmful transactions. In contrast, British financial regulation was segmental and tried to protect the real economy by installing a socially exclusive club of traders governed by professional expertise and hierarchy. This new typification of financial regimes will help to understand the resilience of national financial regulatory patterns across crises and the obstacles to a transnational harmonization of rules. Political reform-making is tied to institutional principles of the past.     

推进结构性减税,深化税制改革

为应对全球经济危机的冲击,保持经济持续健康发展,我国2008年底及时出台了积极的财政政策,采取了多项结构性减税措施,取得了明显成效。随着急速扩张的经济刺激计划的逐步淡出,以及防范和化解潜在财政风险的需要,大规模增加财政支出已不可能,出于对防范通胀的考虑,货币政策刺激经济的作用也不能高估,因此,深入推进结构性减税,不失为保持经济持续健康发展的一种良策。这就需要适当加大结构性减税力度,选准深化税制改革的主攻方向。     

Another ‘Lost Decade’? Crisis and Structural Adjustment in Europe and Latin America

With the recent economic crisis, conditional lending and mandatory structural reforms arrived in the European Union. Greece and a number of other crisis countries were subjected to a rigorous process of economic adjustment in exchange for emergency credits from the troika (European Commission, European Central Bank, and International Monetary Fund). Conditionality and structural adjustment were first tested in Latin America. This article compares the European adjustment programmes with the structural reforms introduced in Latin American countries several decades earlier. By doing so, the article reveals strong parallels in spite of the fact that the initial adjustment programmes are rarely considered a success story and that the neoliberal ideology which inspired the related reforms is widely made responsible for the recent crisis. The fact that there are differences in the adjustment programmes is not the result of a re-think of the neoliberal agenda, but of the specific dynamics of European integration and of pragmatic responses to financial threats. However, the article also shows parallels in the outcome of structural adjustment. Some European crisis countries face a ‘lost decade’ quite similar to the one experienced in Latin America in the 1980s.