Optimal Cash Tender Offers*

This paper develops a contingent claims analysis, a simple decision model for determining the optimal price in a cash tender offer. The implied behavior of the optimal tender offer premium over the market price of the target common stock is also investigated. Those readers interested in applying the model may obtain an interactive computer program written in FORTRAN and implementable on a personal computer from the authors on request.     

Neural Networks: A New Tool for Predicting Thrift Failures*

A neural network model that processes input data consisting of financial ratios is developed to predict the financial health of thrift institutions. The network's ability to discriminate between healthy and failed institutions is compared to a traditional statistical model. The differences and similarities in the two modelling approaches are discussed. The neural network, which uses the same financial data, requires fewer assumptions, achieves a higher degree of prediction accuracy, and is more robust.     

A Robust Multivariate Procedure for the Identification of Problem Savings and Loan Institutions*

The 1980s have seen a great increase in the number of failed savings and loan institutions. In order to prevent such failures, it would be helpful if regulators have an early warning model. Such a model should be able to flag potential failed firms to prevent failure. In this paper, a robust multivariate procedure is used to successfully identify potentially failed firms well ahead of an actual failure date.     

DESIGNING HIGH-CONTACT SERVICE SYSTEMS: APPLICATION TO BRANCHES OF A SAVINGS AND LOAN*

The customer-contact model represents one of the few conceptually based approaches for designing service systems. This paper develops that concept further for high-contact systems, relative to efficiency and effectiveness notions. Four design features (contact technologies, contact training, data bases, and contact roles) are developed and a simple design methodology (built around the four design features) is presented. A demonstration of the design methodology is provided through its applications to branches of a savings and loan. Areas for additional theoretical and practical refinement of the model and the desirability of multidisciplinary research are discussed.     

SHAREHOLDER LIMITED LIABILITY AND MEAN-VARIANCE MODELS OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE*

This paper demonstrates that shareholder limited liability imposes a restriction on corporate borrowing and that failure to incorporate this restriction into the analysis yields the “reductio ad absurdum” argument against mean-variance models of optimal capital structure. With corporate income taxes and costless bankruptcy, the firm's value is a monotonically increasing function of debt as long as the amount of debt does not exceed the upper limit imposed by shareholder limited liability. As a result, the introduction of costly bankruptcy into the mean-variance framework is justified.     

A Test of the Cross-Sectional Robustness of the Arbitrage Pricing Model Using Foreign Exchange Rates*

This paper tests the cross-sectional robustness of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) model using foreign exchange rate data to determine if the model is robust with respect to the various random samples and various factor analytic techniques. Factor scores are developed using various samples and factor analytic techniques to explain the returns for other samples and groupings. The APT model is found to be robust across samples and techniques.     

Optimal Offer Strategies in Mergers and Acquisitions*

This paper models the corporate takeover process as a bargaining game under certainty. During the takeover process, an acquirer is generally uncertain about the minimum price the target shareholders will accept. Normally, a takeover is concluded after a sequence of offers have been made. This paper derives optimal offer strategies for the buyer at each stage of this bargaining game under uncertainty. Uncertainty about the target's minimum acceptable price is represented by a probability distribution. Optimal offer strategies depend on the probability distribution of the minimum acceptable price, which can change during the offer process.     

A Credit Limit Decision Model for Inventory Floor Planning and Other Extended Trade Credit Arrangements*

This paper analyzes the dealership credit limit problem in terms of the valuation of a Markov process of cash flows with sequential credit decisions over an infinite planning horizon. The formulation distinguishes between the upper bound on credit applicable at the account formation stage and the upper bound applicable to periodic reorders. The result is a closed form solution to the problem which serves as a criterion function for approving or denying credit on a customer-by-customer basis. Data for a sample of manufacturing firms are employed to estimate typical ranges for criterion function parameters. Upper bounds on credit limits are then calculated and graphically presented for median parameter values as well as for values at the 5th and 95th percentiles for the sample data. Finally, an empirical study is conducted of actual trade credit extended by firms. The results support the hypothesis that the variables in the decision model are important determinants of the amount of trade credit outstanding.     

The Nucleolus Strikes Back*

In a recent paper in Decision Sciences, Barton proposes the MTPD method for finding a unique solution for the nucleolus. We argue that the basis for the MTPD method is flawed because the nucleolus is always unique. Furthermore, the MTPD method is inconsistent and does not exhibit the properties desirable in a cost allocation method.     

A Contingent Claims Model of Corporate Pension Obligations*

This study develops a contingent claims model for valuing the implicit market value of the pension claim associated with defined benefit pension plans. In this model, the firm issues pension, debt, and equity claims. These claims have joint access to two underlying portfolios: corporate and pension. The changes in the market values of these two portfolios are assumed to follow a joint lognormal diffusion process. By imposing terminal boundary conditions implied by Employment Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) rules and the pension insurance provisions of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) on the partial differential equation, a solution for the pension value is obtained. This quasi-market measure of the value of the pension claim may be represented by a portfolio consisting of four components: (1) a risk-free discount bond with face value equal to promised pension benefits; (2) a short put on pension assets with exercise price equal to pension benefits; (3) a long call on 30 percent of corporate assets with exercise price equal to the face value of secured corporate debt; and (4) a short call on 30 percent of corporate assets with a stochastic exercise price which depends on the terminal value of the pension fund. A numerical example using 1992 and 1993 financial statement data from six major U.S. corporations is provided. This example illustrates the usefulness of the model's prediction and the potential effect of theoretical pension values on corporate debt-equity ratios.     

Capital Budgeting for Volume Flexible Equipment*

Recent advances in technology have created opportunities for firms to invest in expensive automated equipment designed to improve volume flexibility. Such investments are made on the basis that flexibility benefits the firm by increasing managerial control over output, reducing the risk of demand uncertainty, and improving productivity. The presumption is that these benefits will eventually translate to higher cash flows, appreciation in the firm's market value, and better return to shareholders. Yet, there is no managerially useful analytical framework for measuring this relationship. This study develops a model that uses contingent claims analysis to evaluate the effect of volume flexibility on the firm's value and to determine the optimal degree of automation that maximizes share value. The analysis is done by taking into consideration alternative demand characteristics, cost patterns, and the effectiveness of volume flexibility in increasing managerial control over output, reducing the risk of demand uncertainty, and improving productivity.     

Embeddedness of Organizational Capabilities*

Managers must regularly make decisions on how to access and deploy their limited resources in order to build organizational capabilities for a sustainable competitive advantage. However, failure to recognize that organizational capabilities involve complex and intricately woven underlying processes may lead to an incomplete understanding of how capabilities affect competitive advantage. As a means of understanding this underlying complexity, we discuss how managerial decisions on resource acquisition and deployment influence capability embeddedness and argue that capability embeddedness has an incremental effect on firm performance beyond the effects from organizational resources and capabilities. To investigate these issues, we present a hierarchical composed error structure framework that relies on cross‐sectional data (and allows for generalizations to panel data). We demonstrate the framework in the context of retailing, where we show that the embeddedness of organizational capabilities influences retailer performance above and beyond the tangible and intangible resources and capabilities that a retailer possesses. Our results illustrate that understanding how resources and capabilities influence performance at different hierarchical levels within a firm can aid managers to make better decisions on how they can embed certain capabilities within the structural and social relationships within the firm. Moreover, understanding whether the underlying objectives of the capabilities that are being built and cultivated have convergent or divergent goals is critical, as it can influence the extent to which the embedded capabilities enhance firm performance.     

Group Buying,Buyer Heterogeneity,and Sellers' Bargaining Power*

Group buying enables collective bargaining opportunity that individual buyers lack to negotiate prices with sellers. This potential negotiation capability has two opposing effects. On the one hand, the prospect of the group being able to negotiate price with its rival forces each seller to lower its price offer, as too high a price will induce the group to give its rival an opportunity to undercut its price via negotiation, likely taking away all the buyers. On the other hand, the potential negotiation opportunity may also discourage sellers from competing aggressively in their price offers, as the benefit of charging a low price could be offset by competitors in negotiation, thus yielding overall higher prices for the buyers. In this study, we find that compared to individual purchase, buyers benefit from collective bargaining opportunity by group buying only if sellers’ bargaining power relative to the buyer group is low and/or buyers’ preferences toward the sellers are sufficiently differentiated. Given buyers’ strategic choice of group purchase, sellers may be worse off with a further increase in bargaining power, and so may social welfare.     

On Inventory Abatement via Manufacturing Randomness Reductions*

Under a continuous improvement framework, the policy of abating inventory via reductions in manufacturing randomness is considered. To explore this policy, a model of a real-world production-inventory system is developed, tested, and studied. The results suggest that manufacturing randomness reductions, even substantial ones, may not necessarily lead to inventory abatement, and paradoxically may lead sometimes to an inventory increase. In these cases, however, manufacturing randomness reductions will translate into higher customer service levels.     

投资者关系管理、公司治理与企业业绩

本文将上市公司投资者关系管理因素引入法与金融学理论模型分析得出,由于投资者关系管理起到了提高投资者知情权的作用,有助于对投资者权益的保障,故应促进公司治理水平与业绩提高.然而,实证检验结果发现,上市公司投资者关系对公司市场价值产生了显著的正向影响,但对公司治理水平、会计业绩均无显著影响.本文认为以下两个因素造成了理论与实证结果的差异:第一,我国上市公司从事投资者关系的主要目的在于融资,对流通股股东利益并不太关心.第二,由于我国资本市场股权结构的特殊性、法律机制的缺陷,造成了流通股股东"以脚投票"的决策无法有效地影响上市公司"以手投票"的机制.故要发挥投资者关系的作用,唯有协调控股股东与中小股东利益,引入"辩方举证"、"集体诉讼"等机制切实保障中小投资者权益.     

Stochastic and Intransitive Behavior in a State-Preference Model of Asset Choice*

Most models of investor behavior assume a time-state independent utility function and result in a deterministic solution where a given set of inputs uniquely specifies the decision. In contrast, a state preference model using a time-state dependent utility function is derived in this paper. The model allows the investment choice decision to be analyzed in a game theoretic context. The general solution is a mixed strategy which allows for a probabilistic interpretation of the decision. The approach presented in this paper can accommodate anomalies such as intransitivity of preference and satisficing as rational behavior. An example of a possible implementation is given along with interpretations of the outcomes.     

Cognitive Limitations and Investment “Myopia”*

Optimization of investment decisions in an uncertain and dynamically evolving environment is difficult due to the limitations of the decision-maker's cognitive capacity. Thus, actual investment decisions may deviate from the dynamically optimal decision rule. This paper investigates how a potential investment rule bias affects the expected payoff from a project that has an uncertain development time and an uncertain completion cost. The result shows that the presence of a potential bias in the adopted decision rule dissipates project value and that the dissipating effect is greater for a longer term project if the completion cost is an increasing function of the time to completion.     

Inference in a Binary Response Model with Applications to Data Analysis*

Standard errors of the coefficients of a logistic regression (a binary response model) based on the asymptotic formula are compared to those obtained from the bootstrap through Monte Carlo simulations. The computer intensive bootstrap method, a nonparametric alternative to the asymptotic estimate, overestimates the true value of the standard errors while the asymptotic formula underestimates it. However, for small samples the bootstrap estimates are substantially closer to the true value than their counterpart derived from the asymptotic formula. The methodology is discussed using two illustrative data sets. The first example deals with a logistic model explaining the log-odds of passing the ERA amendment by the 1982 deadline as a function of percent of women legislators and the percent vote for Reagan. In the second example, the probability that an ingot is ready to roll is modelled using heating time and soaking time as explanatory variables. The results agree with those obtained from the simulations. The value of the study to better decision making through accurate statistical inference is discussed.     

Vertical Integration with Price‐Setting Competitive Newsvendors*

This article addresses the problem of distribution channel design under demand uncertainty. We consider two manufacturers, each producing a substitutable product and selling it through either a decentralized or an integrated retail store, which is modeled as a price‐setting newsvendor. A multiplicative demand function incorporating a random shock term is assumed. Of primary interest is how demand uncertainty and production cost affect the equilibrium distribution channel structure. Results indicate the following: On the one hand, if the random shock term is uniformly distributed on [0, x], then the equilibrium design does not depend on the variance of the shock. On the other hand, if the random shock term is uniformly distributed on [1 −r, 1 +r], then the equilibrium design does depend on the variance of the shock. In particular, an increase in r favors the integrated structure where both channels are integrated and hurts the decentralized configuration where both channels are decentralized. Additionally, we explain the qualitative similarities and differences between the structural properties of the equilibrium distribution channel structure when demand is, and is not, uncertain. We also establish that production cost always favors the decentralized structure, while it hurts the integrated one. One important managerial implication of our study is that, by reducing the number of decisions made in supply chains, the impact of demand uncertainty can be controlled to a certain extent.     

Channel Strategies and Stocking Policies in Uncapacitated and Capacitated Supply Chains*

A supply chain consisting of a single supplier distributing two independent products through multiple retailers is analyzed in this paper. The supplier needs to incentivize its retailers to adopt stocking policies that are mutually advantageous and that result in the optimal level of market coverage. The focus is on determining the optimal stocking policies for retailers and the resulting distribution strategy given that the supplier has either unlimited or limited capacity. The results provide insights on the optimal distribution strategy and stocking policies for the supply chain. In general, the paper shows that it is optimal for the supplier to use an intensive distribution strategy (i.e., the products are stocked by all retailers). Selective or exclusive strategies are optimal only when retailers are risk averse, stocking synergies exist, and there are differences in demand or supply uncertainties across products. The analysis also shows that retailers hold larger stocks of a product which generates higher supplier margins but only when the supplier has unlimited capacity. If the supplier has limited capacity, then their margins have no effect on retailers' stocking decisions. Contrary to conventional wisdom, retailers hold larger stocks of a product that has less demand uncertainty as compared to one that has more demand uncertainty.