Soil and its influence on rural drought migration: insights from Depression-era Southwestern Saskatchewan, Canada

This article investigates linkages between soil conditions, farm-level vulnerability, adaptation, and rural migration during periods of drought. It begins by reviewing existing literature on climate adaptation in agricultural populations and on relationships between soil and rural migration. This is followed by a detailed case study of rural migration patterns that emerged in the Swift Current district of Saskatchewan, Canada, during a period of extended droughts and severe economic conditions in the 1930s. Using a combination of secondary literature, interviews with surviving first-hand observers and GIS modeling, the study shows how the interacting effects of household indebtedness, social capital, government relief programs, and farm-level soil quality helped stimulate population loss in many rural townships across the study area. The study focuses particularly on the role played by differential soil quality across the Swift Current district and how farms situated on sandier soils were typically more sensitive and vulnerable to drought than those situated on clay soils. Higher-than-average rates of population loss were associated with townships containing areas of poorer quality agricultural soils, an association replicable using GIS software and existing soil and population datasets. The findings from the case study are discussed within the context of the broader existing literature, and suggestions are provided on future directions for research, planning, and modeling to assist planners and policymakers concerned with rural adaptation and migration.     

Linking Food Security with Household’s Adaptive Capacity and Drought Risk: Implications for Sustainable Rural Development

In spite of green revolution and rapid economic growth, India’s vast population still suffers from hunger and poverty, especially in the rural areas. Moreover, drought adversely affects India’s economy by declining agricultural production and purchasing power. It also escalates rural unemployment which ultimately affects household food security. Our study investigated the food security of drought prone rural households in a broader context by linking the dimensions of food security with dimensions of climate change vulnerability. We used the primary data of 157 drought prone rural households of Odisha state in India for analysis. This study employed polychoric principal component analysis to construct an aggregate food security index. An ordered probit model was used to estimate the determinants of food security. The FSI showed that three-fourth of the respondents were facing food security issues with varying degrees. The estimates of ordered probit model indicated that joint family, education, migration and health insurance are key variables that determine food security, whereas drought adversely affected food security of rural households. Overarching strategies are required to effectively address food security issues in the wake of increased drought risk. This study provides an insight for policy makers in India and in similar south Asian countries who must consider food security in the light of drought.

     

Sensitivity of Livelihood Strategy to Livelihood Capital: An Empirical Investigation Using Nationally Representative Survey Data from Rural China

Research on the association between rural households’ livelihood capitals and livelihood strategies has long been of interest in geography, management, economics, ecology and other disciplines. However, the existing micro-empirical studies are mostly small-scale surveys of rural households; there are much fewer large-scale investigations at the national level. Meanwhile, few empirical studies have analyzed the sensitivity of rural households’ livelihood strategies to various types of livelihood capitals in different types of villages, from the perspective of village type. This study uses survey data from 8031 rural households in 226 villages from 27 provinces (cities) of China; the villages were divided into three types: plain villages, hilly villages and mountainous villages. The livelihood capitals and livelihood strategies of rural households in different types of villages were examined, and ordinal logistic regression models were construed to explore the sensitivity of rural households’ livelihood strategies to various types of livelihood capitals in different types of villages. The results revealed that: (1) the sample of rural households had similar livelihood asset structures and livelihood strategy selections across the different types of villages. Among them, human capital was the most important livelihood asset for rural households, while rural households had the lowest dependence on natural capital; off-farm work was the main livelihood strategy for rural households, followed by on-farm work, while the proportion of households engaged in part-time work was the smallest. (2) Rural households’ livelihood strategies had different sensitivities to various types of livelihood capitals, and there were also differences in the sensitivities among different types of villages. For the total sample, as well as the hill and mountain village sub-samples, human and financial capitals had significant positive impacts on livelihood strategy, while nature and social capitals had significant negative impacts on livelihood strategy; physical capital had no significant impact on livelihood strategy. For the plain village sub-sample, human and physical capitals had significant positive impacts on livelihood strategy, while nature capital had a significant negative impact on livelihood strategy; financial and social capitals had no significant impacts on livelihood strategy. This study enhances our understanding of the characteristics of rural households’ livelihood capital structures and livelihood strategy selections as well as the sensitivity of rural households’ livelihood strategies to various types of livelihood capitals among different types of villages in China. These findings provide reference for the formulation of policies related to the improvement of rural households’ livelihoods in different types of villages.

     

The Relationship Between Resources and Human Migration Patterns in Central Kamchatka During the Post-Soviet Period

This paper examines the relationship between resources and migration in post-Soviet Kamchatka (Russian Far East). During the post-Soviet period of socio-economic hardship, migration trends have changed drastically both in central Kamchatka and throughout the Russian Far East. I predicted that there would be a clear relationship between resource scarcity and people's decisions to leave in search of more propitious opportunities. Against the backdrop of economic decline, out-migration prevailed in central Kamchatka throughout the post-Soviet period; however, migration patterns among villages in this rural and resource-dependent region diverge considerably. Villages in central Kamchatka facing a local natural resource crisis show greater net negative migration than those with a relatively intact resource base. Such variation is notable, given the relatively contained area of the study; it suggests migration patterns are closely tied to ecological conditions. Besides socio-economic and ecological factors, historical circumstances also influence migration patterns. The decision to migrate is complex, arising from the interaction of socio-economic, political, ecological, and historical conditions.     

Environmental hazard and migration intentions in a coastal area in Ghana: a case of sea flooding

Recently, there has been significant debate about whether ‘environmental migration’ can constitute a form of adaptation to environmental change, as opposed to forced or flight migration. The Foresight Report on Migration and Environmental Change (2011) suggested environmental factors are one driver of migration, as well as political, social, economic and demographic drivers, and that—under the right conditions—migration can be a form of adaptation to changing climatic conditions. However, this is dependent on migrants having adequate social and financial capital to undertake beneficial types of migration; it further argues that environmental change may result in ‘trapped populations’ whereby people who lack the necessary resources to re-establish livelihoods elsewhere may be left exposed to increasingly severe environmental shocks and stresses in situ. Research on the climate-migration nexus in West Africa has largely focused on out-migration from the semi-arid Sahel with more limited evidence about how sea flooding interacts with migration flows. This paper attempts to help fill this knowledge gap. Using data from a representative survey of households across three coastal communities in Ghana’s Volta River Delta, this paper concludes that exposure to sea flooding may not be a primary cause of out-migration as other community, economic and political factors influence migration intentions and decisions. Thus, it is important for planned adaptation interventions to be strengthened in situ to enable households, particularly farming households, sustain their livelihoods.     

External Shocks,Household Consumption and Fertility in Indonesia

This paper examines the impact of idiosyncratic income shocks on household consumption, educational expenditure and fertility in Indonesia, and assesses whether the investment in human capital of children and fertility are used to smooth household consumption. Using four different kinds of self-reported economic hardships, our findings indicate that coping mechanisms are rather efficient for Indonesian households that perceive an economic hardship. Only in case of unemployment do we find a significant decrease in consumption spending and educational expenditure while fertility increases. These results indicate that households that perceive an unemployment shock use children as a means for smoothing consumption. Regarding the death of a household member or natural disaster we find that consumption per person even increases. These results are consistent with the argument that coping mechanisms even over-compensate the actual consumption loss due to an economic hardship. One important lesson from our findings is that different types of income shock may lead to different economic and demographic behavioral adjustments and therefore require specific targeted social insurance programs.     

The Impact of Migration and Remittances on Wealth Accumulation and Distribution in Rural Thailand

This article studies the impact of internal migration and remittance flows on wealth accumulation and distribution in 51 rural villages in Nang Rong, Thailand. Using data from 5,449 households, the study constructs indices of household productive and consumer assets with principal component analysis. The changes in these indices from 1994 to 2000 are modeled as a function of households’ prior migration and remittance behavior with ordinary least squares, matching, and instrumental variable methods. The findings show that rich households lose productive assets with migration, potentially because of a reduction in the labor force available to maintain local economic activities, while poor households gain productive assets. Regardless of wealth status, households do not gain or lose consumer assets with migration or remittances. These results suggest an equalizing effect of migration and remittances on wealth distribution in rural Thailand.     

Household organization and the interregional variation of out-migration rates

Regional out-migration rates may depend on localized conditions, but the range of possibilities for migration decision making in multi person households includes processes in which the response to variations in localized conditions depends on household size. Analyses of migration rates for households indicate that larger households exhibit more extreme responses to variations in localized conditions and that this is an important source of variation in regional out-migration rates.     

Demographic response to environmental pressure in Malawi

The discussion in this paper uses Malawi as a case study to shed some light on the interrelationships between population growth and demographic responses to environmental pressure. It is noted that certain parts of the country that are experiencing extreme environmental stress have began to go through a rapid phase of demographic and social change and transformation. For example, the Southern Region of the country, which has some of the highest densities, is experiencing a fertility transition. There is a spontaneous internal migration pattern from densely populated rural areas to other sparsely populated rural areas. Other non-demographic responses to population pressures are also briefly discussed in this paper.     

Determinants of rural-urban migration in Ghana

Abstract In the 39 years between the 1921 and 1960 censuses, urban population in Ghana multiplied by nine while the population of the whole country only trebled. The major factor in urban growth was rural-urban migration and the reproduction of the migrants. In 1963 a survey consisting of a systematic sample of households in 45 rural centres, randomly chosen in Local Authority Areas selected in accord with the regional rural population distribution, reconstituted the rural population so as to include current migrants in the towns as well as those remaining in rural areas. For analysis 13,748 respondents were divided into 14 categories by ruralurban migration behaviour. At the same time a survey of urban population provided a check on rural-urban migration data. study of the propensity to migrate from rural to urban areas shows that this increases with the closeness of the rural area to a large town, the population size of the rural centre, the economic well-being of the rural household, the number of relatives already in the urban area, the individual's level of education, larger family size and probably lower birth rank, as well as exhibiting specific age and sex patterns. It is shown that only a minor role is played by occupation, conjugal condition and number of dependants. Various interrelations between these factors are discussed, and attention is given to the special importance of education in partially or wholly determining some of the other factors. Census data are used to demonstrate the effect of rural-urban migration in concentrating persons with certain characteristics in the urban areas.     

就业迁移的人力资本差别效应——以长三角为例

随着我国城市化的快速发展,人口迁移流动在城市社会生活中的影响日益突出。人口迁移流动必然引起“人”自身所拥有的人力资本的动态配置。文章主要利用2000年全国第五次人口普查迁移数据等有关数据资料,分析长三角16城市就业迁移的人力资本差别效应。研究发现,就业迁移对长三角各城市人力资本具有显著的差别效应,并且长三角内的就业迁移与长三角外的就业迁移对长三角各城市人力资本提升或稀释效应也有明显差别。研究还发现,就业迁移导致长三角人力资本城际差异缩小,尤以上海与其他15城市的差距缩小更为明显。     

Circular migration, small-scale logging, and household livelihoods in Uganda

Little is known about the contribution of migrant logging to rural livelihoods in East Africa. In this paper, we analyze logging by circular migrants in land constrained and population dense southwestern Uganda. Drawing on a sample of 180 households, including both migrant and non-migrant households, we describe the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of migrant loggers, estimate the contribution of migrant logging to household income portfolios, test several hypotheses regarding why households decide to undertake this relatively risky activity, and explore the role of social networks as a determinant of higher incomes for migrant loggers. We find that household endowments of land, labor, and capital are different for migrant logger and comparison group households. Above all, labor endowments appear to be driving decisions to participate in logging. We find support for two migration hypotheses: higher expected incomes and wages at destination; and relative deprivation at origin. We find strong evidence that migrant logging reduces income inequality in the home community.     

论人口城乡迁移与农村土地产权制度变迁

文章从制度经济学的角度 ,分析农村土地产权制度变迁和人口迁移决策之间的相互关系 ,并就农村土地产权制度安排如何影响农村人口向城市迁移作一些尝试性的探讨 ,以期为个人理性迁移和人口合理流动提供理论依据和制度支持。     

The effects of siblings on the migration of women in two rural areas of Belgium and the Netherlands, 1829-1940

This study explores the extent to which the presence and activities of siblings shaped the chances of women migrating to rural and urban areas in two rural areas of Belgium and the Netherlands during the second half of the nineteenth and first decades of the twentieth century. Shared-frailty Cox proportional hazard analyses of longitudinal data from historical population registers show that siblings exerted an additive impact on women's migration, independently of temporal and household characteristics. Just how siblings influenced women's migration depended on regional modes of production and on employment opportunities. In the Zeeland region, sisters channelled each other into service positions. In the Pays de Herve, where men and women found industrial work in the Walloon cities, women were as much influenced by their brothers' activities. Evidence is found for two mechanisms explaining the effects of siblings: micro-economic notions of joint-household decision-making and social capital theory.     

Experiencing ‘drought and more’: local responses from rural Victoria, Australia

Uncertainty around long-term droughts and water scarcity has been increasing as the impacts of El Nino cycles are felt globally. Understanding how the effects of these events are manifested on the ground in communities is particularly important if governments and associated agencies are to respond appropriately. Using a qualitative approach, this paper examines the impacts of drought on two rural towns in Victoria, Australia, and explores what lessons can be drawn from local experiences. The research suggests that previous responses to drought by governments have been largely ineffectual and as such, we question whether there is a need to reshape institutional understandings of what adapting to drought might mean. This research, therefore, seeks to further the discussion surrounding drought impacts and the myriad of challenges associated with it by drawing on locally situated knowledge to inform future decision-making in this evolving field of study.     

中国农村地区的家庭禀赋与外出务工劳动力回流

中国农村地区家庭禀赋对个人的行为决策有着重要的影响,需要学术界予以更多的关注。为了考察外生性的家庭禀赋对劳动力就业流动的影响,文章通过构建新生代外出务工劳动力和户主子女的回流决策两个计量模型来进行经验论证。分析结果表明,农村劳动力的迁移选择是综合考虑家庭禀赋状况的理性决策,尤其是对于年轻一代的外出劳动力。家庭经济资本的增加会阻碍家庭外出务工成员的回流。外出劳动力回流的概率起初随着家庭人力资本和家庭自然资本的增长而上升,达到一定程度后开始下降。家庭成员只有拥有较为丰富的人力资本,外出务工劳动力才能对家庭社会资本加以充分利用。另外,分析显示年轻一代劳动力和第一代劳动力对家庭社会资本和自然资本的利用是有差异的。     

Climate change and internal migration intentions in the forest-savannah transition zone of Ghana

Migration is at the centre of demographic research on the population–environment nexus. Increasing concerns about the impacts of environmental events on human population are fuelling interest on the relationship between migration and environmental change. Using data from the Climate Change Collective Learning and Observatory Network Ghana project, we employ binary logistic regression to examine migration intentions of households in response to major community stressors including climate-related ones. The results indicate that the type of community stressor that affects households most does not differentiate migration intentions in Ghana’s forest-savannah transition zone: Even though the majority of the respondents mentioned climate-related events as the stressor that affects them the most, such events do not appear to directly explain migration intentions. However, socio-demographic factors such as age, household size and current migration status are significant predictors of migration intentions, with younger household heads, heads of migrant households and heads of smaller households being relatively more likely to have migration intentions than other household heads. We conclude that migration drivers are multifaceted and deserve further research because even in areas with perceived environmental stress, climate-related events may not be the primary motivation for migration intentions.     

The Use of Social Surveys to Measure Drought and the Impact of Drought

Although the term drought is widely used, defining it is conceptually and technically difficult and there is no generally accepted definition. This article uses data from an Australian social survey of people living in agricultural areas to test the validity of using general social surveys to ask respondents whether they are living in an area that is drought affected. Strong evidence is found that the survey based self-report measure of drought is both internally consistent and correlated with the standard Australian meteorological (rainfall deficit) measures of drought and thus provides a valid measure of whether individuals are experiencing the drought. The relationship between self-report drought and the standard meteorological measure of drought and financial hardship and changes in financial position is estimated. While a negative association between drought and financial position is found for both measures, the relationship is stronger for the self-report than the meteorological definition. The self-report measure is more closely linked to the economic, social and community impacts of low rainfall and provides greater flexibility in the geographic area over which drought is measured—thus survey data about drought allows respondents to define the area in way which is meteorologically, topographically or agriculturally meaningful.     

Left home high and dry-reduced migration in response to repeated droughts in Thailand and Vietnam

Population and Environment - We investigate the extent to which droughts impact migration responses of rural households in Thailand and Vietnam, as well as the role of underlying mechanisms such as...     

建国以来新疆人口的省际迁移状况分析

新疆人口总数中。省际迁移人口占有重要的地位。文章分析了建国以来新疆人口迁移特点,结果表明：新疆人口迁移活动主要表征为国家有计划的迁移和人口自发迁移。迁移过程具明显的时间阶段性;迁入人口以文化素质较低的农村男性青壮年为主：人口迁入地区主要为开发程度高、经济发展快、交通便利的地区;人口迁入主因是国家政策及大量土地资源的吸引．人口迁出主因是区域经济发展不平衡、产业结构调整,祖籍亲缘关系、户籍管制的放松;省际人口迁移促进了新疆的经济发展以及新疆与其他省区的交流,但同时也带来了一些不刺影响。