上市公司投入产出表的设计

一、<上市公司投入产出表>编制方法简介 1.基本假定. 同编制普通投入产出表一样,上市公司投入产出表同样要遵循"纯部门"假定、稳定性假定和比例性假定.     

试论推导法两个基本假定的选择

用推导法编制投入产出表,必须以两个基本假定为基础,比如编制商品×商品表,必须以商品工艺假定或部门工艺假定为基础;编制部门×部门表,必须以产品比例假定或市场份额假定为基础。两种假定推导出的投入产出表结果不尽相同,那么,选用哪种假定好呢?     

对纯部门投入产出表编制中两个假定条件的理解

纯部门投入产出表的编制基于产品工艺假定或部门工艺假定。现有统计学教材只是基于上述假定直接给出结论,既未指出假定的具体含义,也未详细推导其过程。笔者结合自己的教学体会,阐述了这两个假定的具体含义,并基于这两个假定推导了纯部门投入产出表编制的全过程。     

试论产品比例矩阵C的逆矩阵C-1的经济意义及其他

利用推导法(亦称UV表法)编制投入产出表,就是充分利用现有的统计资料,首先编制两张基础数据表——投入表和产出表;然后按照一定的工艺假定,用数学方法转移各产业部门次要产品的投入和产出,从而推导出投入产出表。 这里所说的工艺假定有两种。一种是产品工艺假定,它是假定同一种产品,不论其在哪个产业部门生产,都具有相同的投入结构;另一种是部门工艺假定,它则是假定同一产业部门生产的不同产品都有相同的投入结构。显然,大多数产品适用于产品工艺假     

产品工艺假设下矩形UV表的投入产出编表方法

一、引言编制投入产出表通常有两种基本方法 :直接分解法和间接推导法。直接分解法即从基层调查入手 ,由基层单位将其生产的各种不同产品的投入和产出按照投入产出部门分类原则 ,分别划归到不同的产品部门中去 ,直接得到各个产品部门的投入产出资料。这一方法的缺点在于人力、物力、财力投入较多 ,编表周期长 ,时滞效应明显。间接推导法则通过编制各企业部门的投入表 (Ｕ表 )和产出表 (Ｖ表 ) ,尔后依据一定的假定 (产品工艺假定或部门工艺假定 ) ,采用数学方法和技巧推导出投入产出表。其特点是不在基层对各部门的投入和产出进行分解 ,而是…     

投入产出分析在地区规划中的应用性和有限性

目前,在一些中小城市、地区和县,相继开始了投入产出表的编制工作,全国已有100个以上的县编制了投入产出表。投入产出模型进入县的经济分析,无疑是一个巨大的进步。但是,任何一种经济模型都有其前提条件(或必要的假定),以便使问题简化。当把经济模型用于实际经济系统的分析时,就要求该系统的实际情况基本符合模型的前提条件,并且有关模型的简化假定不能与经济系统的实际情况发生重大的偏差。否则,用该模型分析具体的经济系统是没有意义的,甚至会产生错误的结论。     

我国投入产出核算的发展与应用

国民经济核算体系中的投入产出核算就是运用投入产出方法，通过对全社会生产经营单位的投入结构和产出情况的调查，编制投入产出表，建立投入产出模型，从数量上系统反映国民经济各部门间经济技术联系的宏观核算。整个投入产出核算包括三方面内容：投入产出调查、编制投入产出表和投入产出的分析应用。其中，投入产出调查是基础，它是编制投入产出表的重要资料来源；编制科学的投入产出表是关键，它决定了能否正确揭示国民经济各部门间相互依存的内在经济技术联系；投入产出分析应用是目的，通过投入产出表可以进行定性和定量的宏观或微观投…     

两大部类产品价值构成的拉格朗日乘数法之解

运用投入产出表推算两大部类产品的价值构成,应当遵从马克思社会再生产原理指出的两部类间产品交换关系。文章对推算两大部类价值构成的方法与UV表方法的关系加以辨识,基于投入产出分析中的UV表方法,按产品工艺假定,将拉格朗日乘数法运用于推算两大部类产品价值构成,获得了遵从两部类间产品交换关系的两大部类产品价值构成显性算式;并且给出了一个实际算例。     

国民经济核算体系（SNA）(二)

(二)投入产出核算 投入产出核算是为了编制投入产出表。投入产出表从数量上综合反映国民经济各部门之间的技术经济联系,这种技术经济联系更主要地通过中间投入来反映,因此,投入产出表引进了总产出,中间投入等指标,补充了国民收入和生产核算着眼于最终产出,不能反映部门间的互相联系的不足,成为国民经济综合平衡的一个重要工具。     

商品技术假定下方阵推广为高矩阵的初步探讨

一 《国民经济核算体系》〔1〕第三章附录从数学上探讨了在商品技术假定下推导投入产出系数矩阵的过程,得出商品×商品表,A=BC~(-1);部门×部门表,A=C~(-1)B。这两者都涉及到逆矩阵C~(-1)的计算,因此要求C为方阵,且要求C可逆(满秩)。     

总体态势平稳、外部失衡加剧——2006年中国经济运行回顾

2006年,我国经济呈稳定运行格局,经济增长速度较快,物价涨幅较低。固定投资增长率先升后降,金融运行状况稳步攀升。经济中最突出的问题是外部失衡不断加剧。     

Dependence in the 2001 one-number census project

Summary.  The one-number census approach was developed by the Office for National Statistics to adjust the counts from the 2001 census of England and Wales for underenumeration. The method is underpinned by an assumption of independence between the count of the population that was given by the 2001 census and the count that was given by the Census Coverage Survey. Some dependence was, however, detected, and the paper describes the strategy that was used to measure dependence and to adjust the 2001 census population estimates.     

Estimating the Relative Density of Snapper in and around a Marine Reserve Using a Log-Linear Mixed-Effects Model

Angling from small recreational fishing boats was used as a sampling method to quantify the relative density of snapper ( Pagrus auratus ) in six areas within the Cape Rodney-Okakari Point Marine Reserve (New Zealand) and four areas adjacent to the reserve. Penalized quasi-likelihood was used to fit a log-linear mixed-effects model having area and date as fixed effects and boat as a random effect. Simulation and first-order bias correction formulae were employed to assess the validity of the estimates of the area effects. The bias correction is known to be unsuitable for general use because it typically over-estimatesbias, and this was observed here. However, it was qualitatively useful for indicating the direction of bias and for indicating when estimators were approximately unbiased. The parameter of primary interest was the ratio of snapper density in the marine reserve versus snapper density outside the reserve, and the estimator of this parameter was first-order asymptotically unbiased. This ratio of snapper densities was estimated to be 11 (±3).     

基于B-样条基底展开的曲线聚类方法

随着大数据时代的来临,近年来函数型数据分析方法成为研究的热点问题,针对曲线的聚类分析方法引起了学界的关注.给出一种曲线聚类的方法:以L2距离作为亲疏程度的度量,在B样条基底函数展开表述下,将曲线本身信息、曲线变化信息引入聚类算法构建,并实现了曲线聚类与传统多元统计聚类方法的对接.作为应用,以城乡收入函数聚类实例验证了该曲线聚类方法,结果表明,在引入曲线变化信息的情况下,比仅考虑曲线本身信息能够取得更好的聚类效果.     

A structured framework for assessing sensitivity to missing data assumptions in longitudinal clinical trials

The objective of this research was to demonstrate a framework for drawing inference from sensitivity analyses of incomplete longitudinal clinical trial data via a re‐analysis of data from a confirmatory clinical trial in depression. A likelihood‐based approach that assumed missing at random (MAR) was the primary analysis. Robustness to departure from MAR was assessed by comparing the primary result to those from a series of analyses that employed varying missing not at random (MNAR) assumptions (selection models, pattern mixture models and shared parameter models) and to MAR methods that used inclusive models. The key sensitivity analysis used multiple imputation assuming that after dropout the trajectory of drug‐treated patients was that of placebo treated patients with a similar outcome history (placebo multiple imputation). This result was used as the worst reasonable case to define the lower limit of plausible values for the treatment contrast. The endpoint contrast from the primary analysis was ? 2.79 (p = .013). In placebo multiple imputation, the result was ? 2.17. Results from the other sensitivity analyses ranged from ? 2.21 to ? 3.87 and were symmetrically distributed around the primary result. Hence, no clear evidence of bias from missing not at random data was found. In the worst reasonable case scenario, the treatment effect was 80% of the magnitude of the primary result. Therefore, it was concluded that a treatment effect existed. The structured sensitivity framework of using a worst reasonable case result based on a controlled imputation approach with transparent and debatable assumptions supplemented a series of plausible alternative models under varying assumptions was useful in this specific situation and holds promise as a generally useful framework. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cousins: Charles Darwin, Sir Francis Galton and the birth of eugenics

Sir Francis Galton, scientist, African Explorer and statistician, was a key figure in statistical history. He was the man who devised the statistical concepts of regression and correlation. He was also Charles Darwin's cousin. And, inspired by his reading of Darwin, he was the founder of eugenics: the "science" of improving the human race through selective breeding. Nicholas Gillham tells of a darker side to statistics and heredity.     

Sampling issues in the administration of justice

Colin Aitken first became interested in sampling in the context of the administration of justice when the case of US versus Shonubi was brought to his attention. Shonubi was a Nigerian working in New York. He was arrested at Kennedy Airport when seen behaving in a suspicious manner in the baggage hall, having returned on a flight from Nigeria. He was found to have 103 bags of a white substance inside him, four of which were examined. The white substance was identified as heroin. Shonubi was arrested, tried and found guilty of drug smuggling. The question then arose as to the length of sentence he should be given.     

用ABC三级一套样本满足多层次需要问题研究

为适应社会主义市场经济体制的需要,必须大力推广应用抽样调查技术,逐步建立以抽样调查为主体的新的统计调查方法体系。研究抽样调查多级推算总量目标,满足我国分层决策、管理的需要,是抽样调查技术在应用中需要解决的迫切问题。本文在理论研究和实践探索中,提出分层...     

1992-2009年中国茶叶出口国际竞争力分析——基于品种及包装细分的纵向研究

茶叶是中国出口的重要农产品之一,而有关研究表明近年来中国出口茶叶的国际竞争力在不断下降。基于对茶叶品种的细分,运用出口单价、国际市场占有率、RCA指数测算了1992—2009年中国不同品种、不同包装茶叶的国际竞争力,并通过与其他茶叶出口大国进行对比,找出中国茶叶的主要优势。分析结果表明：大包装绿茶是中国最具竞争优势的茶类,但这种优势在下降。大包装红茶竞争力最弱;1992—2009年间,影响中国茶叶出口竞争力变化的国际环境因素主要有加入WTO以及2007年的次贷危机,其中加入WTO的影响比较持久,次贷危机的影响较为短暂。     

中国货币需求波动研究——广义可塑最小二乘法及其推广

中国货币需求波动研究——广义可塑最小二乘法及其推广刘勤顾岚ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＡｎｅｗｍｅｔｈｏｄｏｆｐａｒａｍｅｔｅｒｓｅｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎ－ＧｅｎｅｒａｌｉｚｅｄＦｌｅｘｉｂｌｅＬｅａｓｔＳｑｕａｒｅｓ（ＧＦＬＳ）ｗａｓｉｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｅｄ,ｔｈｅｎ...