Do Asset Market Prices Reflect Traders' Judgment Biases?

The existence of base rate fallacy (BRF) bias is explored employing: (i) a context treatment with a narrative story applied to asset markets and (ii) an isomorphic abstract setting using balls-and-bingo cages. Probability estimates reflect a BRF bias in both treatments, but is stronger with context. Prices track highest expected dividend values (HEDVs) with context, resulting in strongly biased prices relative to the Bayesian norm when biased traders have HEDVs. In the abstract treatment prices do not track HEDVs nearly as closely, resulting in prices closer to the BRF bias only when most traders hold biased beliefs.     

Is it Different at Your House?

Parents who permit young children indiscriminate TV fare have apparently been a matter of concern to educators in the USSR. The poem and cartoon reprinted here from a nursery school journal illustrate one approach used to cope with the problem. (Doehkolnoye Yospitaniye, 1960, No. 10.)     

Do Painless Environmental Policies Exist?

This paper reports an experimental test of the Porter Hypothesis that environmental regulations create innovation offsets that would not otherwise be undertaken. Using a process analysis framework to consistently account for non-separabilities in production and pollution abatement practices, the findings suggest productivity gains can appear to be greater with environmental regulations than without even though they are not. This result which would seem to support the Porter argument, is the result of inadequacies in the methods used to decompose the influences to productivity change. Thus, the experiments offer one explanation for why it has been difficult in practice to reject the hypothesis.     

Do men leave feminizing occupations?

This article analyzes the 1970 and 1980 Public Use Samples of the decennial census and the 1983 Current Population Survey to determine if the degree of occupational feminization, i.e., the change in the percent female, affects men changing occupations. The results lend some support to the contention that men do not leave feminizing occupations. Men in occupations with the greatest increases in their percentage of female workers had the lowest percentage of men leaving their occupations. As the change in the percent female decreased, the percentage of men leaving the occupation increased. However, occupation was a critical factor in this relationship. While men from nonmanufacturing occupations followed a pattern similar to that found in the entire labor force (described above), men in manufacturing occupations left occupations that feminized the most. Men who changed occupations, in fact, often entered occupations that feminized. In the wake of these findings, I discuss how occupational sex segregation may be maintained.     

Is Infant Initiation of Joint Attention by Pointing Affected by Type of Interaction?

This article reports the results of two experiments studying the effects of type of interaction on infant production of declarative pointing. In Experiment 1, intensity of social presence was manipulated in adult–infant interaction with 12–19-month-olds (no social presence; adult responding only; adult also initiating joint attentional bids). Experiment 2 extended the analysis to peer interaction in 12–24-month-olds. Pointing was considered in the context of other gestures, vocalizations, and visual checking. The results show that pointing, but not vocalizing, virtually disappeared in the non-social condition, whereas differential effects between the adult-responding and initiating conditions were limited. Joint attentional bids were produced in peer interaction even in the younger age group, although overall the frequency of gestures was lower than that in adult–infant interaction. The results are discussed in the context of the relationship between communication and the infant developing social cognition.     

What Do We Know about the Family?

Over the years we have spoken and written a great deal about universal pedagogical education, about the search for new forms and methods for educators to work with families, and we have been drawing inferences from a variety of sometimes brilliant and interesting experience. But can we claim today that the school has accomplished much in the way of pedagogical enlightenment of parents, or exerting influence on the family? It would take a great deal of boldness to do so. What is wrong here? Isn't it a fact that, while attempting to influence the family, we fundamentally know nothing about it—except, perhaps, whether it is a "drinking" family or a sober one? Yet statistics make very clear that more and more offenses are being committed by adolescents who come from families that are considered well off. Hence, this well-being must be illusory, and it is essential that we study the family more comprehensively and in depth, that we figure out what is important to teach parents. Considerable help in this regard can be provided by special studies that are being carried out at the Institute of Sociological Research, USSR Academy of Sciences. In this article we acquaint readers with this research.     

Do Term Limits Help Women Get Elected?

Objective . We examine the proposition put forward by term limit advocates and some scholars that the implementation of term limits will lead to increases in the numbers of women serving in state legislatures. Methods . Data are examined for all state house races in the six states that implemented term limits in 1998. Results . Although there was some variation across the states, the overall number of women serving in state house seats that were term-limited actually decreased following the election. Conclusions . More research is needed as more states implement term limits in future elections. However, our analysis suggests that term limits, unaccompanied by efforts to recruit women to run for term-limited seats, may be insufficient to increase the number of women state legislators.     

Does Infant Cognition Research Undermine Sociological Theory? A Critique of Bergesen's Attack on Durkheim

This article discusses how the results of infant research challenge the assumptions of the classical sciences of social behaviour. According to A.J. Bergesen, the findings of infant research invalidate Durkheim's theory of mental categories, thus requiring a re‐theorizing of sociology. This article argues that Bergesen's reading of Emile Durkheim is incorrect, and his review of the infant research in fact invalidates his argument. Reviewing the assumptions of sociology in the light of the findings of infant research, it is argued that the real challenge is to formulate a research strategy that combines the findings of the two sciences.     

Income Security During Sickness Absence. What Do British Middle‐classes Do?

Income maintenance during sickness absence is an under‐researched field within social policy analysis, and yet it is conducive to exploring the interplay between statutory, corporate and private forms of income protection. Drawing on original qualitative interview data, the article shows that British middle‐class couples largely ignore or dismiss public provision, which is due to a relatively low level of sickness benefits, but also based on misconceptions about social rights and the role of employers as mandatory (and voluntary) sick pay providers. Despite a considerable degree of mistrust, mortgage‐related private sickness insurance mattered to some extent, although this does not necessarily reflect policyholders’ strategic choices vis à vis current household needs for income security. Other potential sources of income replacement, such as savings, are relied on much less. In general, the analysis shows a heavy middle‐class reliance on, and strong confidence in, employer‐based sickness pay. This finding may be contrasted with questions about the sustainability of voluntary corporate provision, as well as its capacity to provide income security for the workforce as a whole.     

Do we need a theory of demographic transition?

The process of transition in which a population's rate of natural increase changes from low to high to low is familiar yet a widely accepted theory has not been produced. This paper shows that the search for a general transition theory is ill-advised. This theory would contain laws that can be used: 1) in explaining changes in population growth rates in today's slow-growing populations, 2) in predictions of current and future changes in today's rapidly-growing populations, and 3) in formulating population control policies where fertility levels are high. The search for a general theory which can explain, predict, and control demographic transition is premised on the assumption that 1 entity, called demographic transition, is the object of these 3 uses. The attempt to encompass these 3 uses by a single theory has made each more difficult than it might otherwise be and has contributed to a serious schism within population studies between medical and behavioral approaches. Some ways in which future work on demographic transition can be made more productive are: 1) the formulation of population control policies for less developed countries, the prediction of population changes in those countries, and the explanation of historical trends, which are better treated as separate tasks; 2) elements of medical and behavioral approaches require reintegration; 3) mortality decline appears to be only a highly indirect source of fertility decline; 4) neither development, modernization, nor urbanization appear to be theoretically significant sources of fertility decline; and 5) neither crude birthrates nor fertility levels appear to be theoretically significant dependent variables.