Deliberative Disjunction: Expert and Public Understanding of Outcome Uncertainty

Many environmental and risk management decisions are made jointly by technical experts and members of the public. Frequently, their task is to select from among management alternatives whose outcomes are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. Although it is recognized that how this uncertainty is interpreted can significantly affect decision‐making processes and choices, little research has examined similarities and differences between expert and public understandings of uncertainty. We present results from a web‐based survey that directly compares expert and lay interpretations and understandings of different expressions of uncertainty in the context of evaluating the consequences of proposed environmental management actions. Participants responded to two hypothetical but realistic scenarios involving trade‐offs between environmental and other objectives and were asked a series of questions about their comprehension of the uncertainty information, their preferred choice among the alternatives, and the associated difficulty and amount of effort. Results demonstrate that experts and laypersons tend to use presentations of numerical ranges and evaluative labels differently; interestingly, the observed differences between the two groups were not explained by differences in numeracy or concerns for the predicted environmental losses. These findings question many of the usual presumptions about how uncertainty should be presented as part of deliberative risk‐ and environmental‐management processes.     

The More You Give,the More You Get? The Impact of Corporate Political Activity on the Value of Government Contracts

Firms have been relying on corporate political activity (CPA) to achieve access and to affect public policy change for decades. Most research on CPA and public policy outcomes has implicitly assumed that access afforded by CPA results in an either‐ or (dichotomous) policy outcome such as votes or election outcomes. Based on recent research on how CPA can be a strategic signal to government agencies, however, it is possible that CPA may in fact, have a linear association with public policy outcomes as opposed to merely a dichotomous one, and we explore this relationship in the unique public policy context of government contract awards. We specifically analyze how higher levels of CPA impact the financial value of government contracts awarded to firms. Utilizing the S&P 1500 sample for 16 years (1997–2012) we find that CPA has a one to one association with the value of contract awards, indicating that CPA and public policy outcomes can be linked in ways that motivate firms to continuously invest in CPA, to maximize their political rents. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of this finding in light of extant research on CPA and its direct impact on public policy outcomes.     

MEDIA MERGERS AND MEDIA BIAS WITH RATIONAL CONSUMERS

We present an economic model of media bias and media mergers. Media owners have political motives as well as profit motives, and can influence public opinion by withholding information that is pejorative to their political agenda—provided that their agenda is not too far from the political mainstream. This is true even with rational consumers who understand the media owners’ biases, because the public do not know how much information the news organizations have and so do not know when news is being withheld. In line with conventional wisdom, this problem can be undone by competition; but competition can be defeated in equilibrium by media mergers that enhance profits at the expense of the public interest. We thus derive a motive for media merger policy that is completely distinct from the motives behind conventional antitrust. While media bias may reduce the profit incentives to merge, media markets nonetheless err by being insufficiently competitive, and the consequences of merger are more severe than in other markets.     

Local Management Response to Corporative Restructuring: A Case Study of a Company Town

This is a case study of top management in a Swedish pulp industry at Skutskär. After decades of proactive response to change, starting in 1976 the pulp industry experienced a rapid and significant restructuring. In 1992, and after a prolonged hold on local investments, came a large‐scale investment with major labor reductions, which created a local crisis. The aim of this study is to analyze how top managers of a local business plant perceive and explain their citizenship relationship to the community of the company town during a transition period from 1976 to 2007. Our study shows that too much reliance on top management cost reduction requirements and not caring, or underscoring, local social concerns created gaps and local stakeholder distrust. We discuss how prolonged distrust of the company to bear social responsibility ended up in a broken relationship between the company and the local community. Our case indicates at least two problems that must be handled for successful corporate citizenship. First, the traditional control‐oriented management view is too narrow and not adjusted to today's citizenship reality, including how to handle corporate social responsibility. Second, we can see a possibility where the conceived needs on a global corporate level may lead to situations to obscure local needs and consequences.     

Risk and the Media: A Comparison of Print and Televised News Stories of a Canadian Drinking Water Risk Event

This article explores the utility of using media analyses as a method for risk researchers to gain an initial understanding of how the public may perceive a risk issue or event based on how it is presented and communicated in news media stories. In the area of risk research, newspapers consistently provide coverage of both acute and chronic risk events, whereas televised news broadcasts report primarily acute risk events. There is no consensus in the literature about which news format (print vs. televised) may be better to study public conceptualizations of risk, or if one format (e.g., print) may be used as a surrogate measure for another format (e.g., televised). This study compares Canadian national televised and newspaper coverage of the same risk event: the E. coli contamination of a public drinking water supply. Using a content analysis, this study empirically demonstrates the overall similarity in story content coverage in both televised and print coverage, noting that televised coverage promotes primarily emotional story themes while print coverage tends to also include coverage of analysis and process. On this basis, the research draws two conclusions: 1) given its more comprehensive coverage, newspaper broadsheets may provide a better measure of media coverage of a risk event than televised coverage (if only one format can be studied); and 2) when the risk area of interest is chronic, and/or if the scale of analysis is at a community/local level (i.e., when it is unlikely that archived televised coverage is available), then a researcher may find the print media to be a more useful format to study.     

Market-Type Mechanisms and Public Service Equity: A Review of Experiences in European Public Services

In seeking to benefit from the competitive pressures exerted through marketization, governments have hoped to gain improvements in public service efficiency. Yet, concerns remain about the effects of marketization on how equitably public services are provided. We consider evidence about the relationship between the introduction of market-type mechanisms in the European public sector and the efficiency and equity of service provision. Our analysis reveals that although market-type mechanisms sometimes result in worse service equity, there is only weak evidence of a trade-off between efficiency and equity.     

激励性和惩罚性交通拥堵治理政策的比较——基于动态演化博弈模型及仿真分析

随着城市化的快速发展,城市人口越来越多,私家车保有量急剧增长,这使得城市道路拥堵问题变得越来越严重,拥堵问题成为了城市健康可持续发展的重要阻碍。为了缓解交通拥堵,城市管理者基于不同的治理思路提出并实施了多项治理政策。本文从博弈论的角度阐述了交通拥堵的形成,并建立了一个出行者交通方式选择行为的演化博弈模型,揭示了不同治理措施对城市交通拥堵问题施加影响的过程,并对这些影响的结果做出了解释。该演化模型将出行者整体分为两类,一类表现为公交偏好,另一类为私家车偏好,我们分析在不同的交通拥堵治理政策下,出行者选择不同出行模式的成本和收益,得到随政策变化的收益矩阵,并分析两类出行者在不同政策下的演化稳定策略。为了更为直观地对演化过程及结果进行分析,我们对该模型进行了仿真模拟,最终发现惩罚和激励措施都能缓解交通拥堵,但在迅速性和持久性上,惩罚性措施比激励性措施更为有效。     

Probability Information in Risk Communication: A Review of the Research Literature

Communicating probability information about risks to the public is more difficult than might be expected. Many studies have examined this subject, so that their resulting recommendations are scattered over various publications, diverse research fields, and are about different presentation formats. An integration of empirical findings in one review would be useful therefore to describe the evidence base for communication about probability information and to present the recommendations that can be made so far. We categorized the studies in the following presentation formats: frequencies, percentages, base rates and proportions, absolute and relative risk reduction, cumulative probabilities, verbal probability information, numerical versus verbal probability information, graphs, and risk ladders. We suggest several recommendations for these formats. Based on the results of our review, we show that the effects of presentation format depend not only on the type of format, but also on the context in which the format is used. We therefore argue that the presentation format has the strongest effect when the receiver processes probability information heuristically instead of systematically. We conclude that future research and risk communication practitioners should not only concentrate on the presentation format of the probability information but also on the situation in which this message is presented, as this may predict how people process the information and how this may influence their interpretation of the risk.     

Organisational leadership and/for sustainability: Future directions from John Dewey and social movements

In this paper, we suggest that organisational leadership that is based (generally) on a neoliberal paradigm has contributed to an ‘intolerable situation’ that was recognised at the United Nations (2015a) Paris Agreement on Climate Change. We, therefore, attempt to re-frame organisational leadership based on a sustainability paradigm. In doing so, we draw on John Dewey’s thinking on publics: due to the need for greater stakeholder involvement in identifying how sustainability could be achieved and increasing pressure from governments, campaigning groups and public opinion for organisations to expand their boundaries further to interact with, and take seriously, the needs of the communities that they affect. Then―and for the implementation of this re-frame and cognizant of the community requirement―we will offer that guidance may be drawn from the emerging social movements literature, specifically the importance of narration, mobilisation and organisation. Finally, we present a revised framework for organisational leadership that is based on this sustainability paradigm.     

With or Without Forecast Sharing: Competition and Credibility under Information Asymmetry

Forecast sharing among trading partners lies at the heart of many collaborative and contractual supply chain management efforts. Even though it has been praised in both academic and practitioner circles for its critical role in increasing demand visibility, some concerns remain: The first one is related to the credibility of forecast sharing, and the second is the fear that it may turn into a competitive disadvantage and induce suppliers to increase their price offerings. In this study, we explore the validity of these concerns under a supply chain with a competitive upstream structure, focusing specifically on (i) when and how a credible forecast sharing can be sustainable, and (ii) how it impacts on the intensity of price competition. To address these issues, we develop a supply chain model with a buyer facing a demand risk and two heterogeneous suppliers competing for order allocation from the buyer. The extent of demand is known only to the buyer. The buyer submits a buying request to the suppliers via a commonly used procurement mechanism called request for quotation (RFQ). We consider two variants of RFQ. In the first type, the buyer simply shares the estimated order quantity with no further specifications. In the second one, in addition to this, the buyer also specifies minimum and/or maximum order quantities. We fully characterize equilibrium decisions and profits associated with them under symmetric and asymmetric information scenarios. Our main findings are that the buyer can use a RFQ with quantity restrictions as a credible signal for forecast sharing as long as the degree of demand information asymmetry is not too high, and that, contrary to above concerns, the equilibrium prices that emerge between competing suppliers under asymmetric information may indeed increase if the buyer cannot share forecast information credibly with its upstream partners.     

Data envelopment analysis: Prior to choosing a model

In this paper, we address several issues related to the use of data envelopment analysis (DEA). These issues include model orientation, input and output selection/definition, the use of mixed and raw data, and the number of inputs and outputs to use versus the number of decision making units (DMUs). We believe that within the DEA community, researchers, practitioners, and reviewers may have concerns and, in many cases, incorrect views about these issues. Some of the concerns stem from what is perceived as being the purpose of the DEA exercise. While the DEA frontier can rightly be viewed as a production frontier, it must be remembered that ultimately DEA is a method for performance evaluation and benchmarking against best-practice. DEA can be viewed as a tool for multiple-criteria evaluation problems where DMUs are alternatives and each DMU is represented by its performance in multiple criteria which are coined/classified as DEA inputs and outputs. The purpose of this paper is to offer some clarification and direction on these matters.     

Corporate Governance and Democracy: The Stakeholder Debate Revisited

'Stakeholding' is a term laden with manymeanings. In this paper we attempt to put someorder on the discourse by confining attentionto the corporation. We assess the originsand the intellectual foundations of the 'shareholder versus stakeholder' debate. We askwhether and how 'stakeholding' might be a morelogical or rational system, a fairer or moredemocratic system, and one that provides betterperformative outcomes. Each of these claims isassessed in respect to the micro firmperspective and the macro economy-wideperspective.One of the most difficult and neglected areasin the stakeholding debate concerns thepracticalities of its implementation. The papertackles this issue directly, at both thedomestic and the international level. We asknot only how stakeholding might be sensiblyintroduces within a national context but alsowhat it means to discuss stakeholding inrespect to transnational enterprises.     

A potential use of data envelopment analysis for the inverse classification problem

We propose a methodology that uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) for solving the inverse classification problem. An inverse classification problem involves finding out how predictor attributes of a case can be changed so that the case can be classified into a different and more desirable class. For a binary classification problem and non-negative decision-making attributes, we show that under the assumption of conditional monotonicity, and convexity of classes, DEA can be used for inverse classification problem. We illustrate the application of our proposed methodology on a hypothetical and a real-life bankruptcy prediction data.     

Responding to community expectations on corporate environmental performance: How to develop effective citizen advisory panels

Corporations are facing increasing pressure to improve their environmental performance. Many are turning to citizen advisory panels (CAPs) as a way improve their decision- making and enhance their public accountability. CAPs are committee of citizens who meet regularly with managers to discuss environmental and other community issues associated with their companies. These panels allow organizations to recieve the type proactive environmental decisions. CAPs also can enble a company to communicate to and receive input from the community in a more controlled and confidential mannier than many other public processes.While CAPs offer many potential advantages, there are also a number of challenges that must be met before their benefits can be realized. This article describes a number of steps that companies should take to develop effective CAPs, including: forming the panels, selecting members, conducting meetings and communicating to citizen members. In addition, the authors discuss some of the lessons learned, including how to ensure that CAPs are operated in a manner that truly serves the interests of both the community and the company.     

The psychological distance of climate change

Avoiding dangerous climate change is one of the most urgent social risk issues we face today and understanding related public perceptions is critical to engaging the public with the major societal transformations required to combat climate change. Analyses of public perceptions have indicated that climate change is perceived as distant on a number of different dimensions. However, to date there has been no in-depth exploration of the psychological distance of climate change. This study uses a nationally representative British sample in order to systematically explore and characterize each of the four theorized dimensions of psychological distance--temporal, social, and geographical distance, and uncertainty--in relation to climate change. We examine how each of these different aspects of psychological distance relate to each other as well as to concerns about climate change and sustainable behavior intentions. Results indicate that climate change is both psychologically distant and proximal in relation to different dimensions. Lower psychological distance was generally associated with higher levels of concern, although perceived impacts on developing countries, as an indicator of social distance, was also significantly related to preparedness to act on climate change. Our findings clearly point to the utility of risk communication techniques designed to reduce psychological distance. However, highlighting the potentially very serious distant impacts of climate change may also be useful in promoting sustainable behavior, even among those already concerned.     

Do Interactions Between Environmental Chemicals and the Human Microbiome Need to Be Considered in Risk Assessments?

One of the most dynamic and fruitful areas of current health‐related research concerns the various roles of the human microbiome in disease. Evidence is accumulating that interactions between substances in the environment and the microbiome can affect risks of disease, in both beneficial and adverse ways. Although most of the research has concerned the roles of diet and certain pharmaceutical agents, there is increasing interest in the possible roles of environmental chemicals. Chemical risk assessment has, to date, not included consideration of the influence of the microbiome. We suggest that failure to consider the possible roles of the microbiome could lead to significant error in risk assessment results. Our purpose in this commentary is to summarize some of the evidence supporting our hypothesis and to urge the risk assessment community to begin considering and influencing how results from microbiome‐related research could be incorporated into chemical risk assessments. An additional emphasis in our commentary concerns the distinct possibility that research on chemical–microbiome interactions will also reduce some of the significant uncertainties that accompany current risk assessments. Of particular interest is evidence suggesting that the microbiome has an influence on variability in disease risk across populations and (of particular interest to chemical risk) in animal and human responses to chemical exposure. The possible explanatory power of the microbiome regarding sources of variability could reduce what might be the most significant source of uncertainty in chemical risk assessment.     

Trade-offs and the precautionary principle: A lexicographic utility approach

The precautionary principle is often argued to be irrational because it cannot adequately explain how resources should be distributed across multiple possible catastrophes or between catastrophic and noncatastrophic risks. We address this problem of trade-offs by extending a recently proposed formal interpretation of the precautionary principle (PP) within a lexical utility framework and using it to prove results about which distribution of resources maximizes lexical utility when several catastrophic risks exist, given different assumptions. We also explain how our lexical utility interpretation of PP can recommend balanced distributions of resources between disaster prevention and other concerns.     

Knowledge management in a community setting using action research: a case study of Lumpaya community,Nakorn Pathom Province,Thailand

This study promoted self-learning and participatory learning processes in the Lumpaya Community of Thailand to facilitate the development of local public policy to reduce the problem of poverty. The process used action research utilizing practice and learning from that practice. This research serves as an example of how a human resource development (HRD) intervention, knowledge management, can be applied in a context that extends beyond individual organizational boundaries to strengthen the community.     

Health Risk Communication at the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry

I have described areas for which ATSDR has responsibilities that we see as involving risk communication. I conclude by indicating, based on our professional experience and from meetings with the public where we have presented health information, what we consider to be five elements required of successful risk communication. The first element we suggest is the credibility of the source. If you have no credibility, no matter how accurate, how truthful, how up-to-date, how important, how dramatic your message is, you are not going to be heard. So you start with credibility. The quality of the message is the second building block of successful risk communication. By quality of the message, I mean whether it is accurate, truthful, up-to-date, and based on current scientific knowledge. The third element is the degree of involvement of the receiver of the message in the shaping of the message. If the receiver has not been involved in the process, then the likelihood of successful risk communication is going to be diminished. Get the receivers involved up front. That means, in the case of community health studies, get those persons involved in the community who have been most concerned about the health issues. To the extent possible, involve community leaders, citizen groups, physicians, the news media, and concerned individual citizens in the design, conduct, and evaluation of community health surveys and studies. The fourth element is the quality of the delivery. If you present the message in government jargon and do not speak with, but to, the audience, you are going to find difficulties in successful communication.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)