The fallacy of the five million women: A re-estimate

Explicit policy to control fertility in the United States to date has focussed on the “unmet need” for contraceptive services in 1966 among an estimated five million poor and near-poor women. This paper reestimates the number of women in need of contraceptive services by disaggregating (on the basis of tabulations from the Current Population Surveys for 1966 and 1967, and the 1965 National Fertility Study) all poor and near-poor women into 54 subgroups differentiated by age, marital status, religion, and color. Data from the 1965 National Fertility Study, and from other studies, are then used to estimate for each subgroup deductions for sterility, pregnancy, waiting time for conception, and negative attitudes toward and current use of contraception. The residual number of women who both want and require contraceptive services, but do not have them, is estimated to be 1.2 million, rather than 4.6 million. The fact that the re-estimate takes into account both existing contraceptive practice and negative attitudes toward family limitation accounts for much of the difference between it and the original figure.     

Poverty Among Elderly in India

Using consumption expenditure data of the National Sample Survey 2004?C2005, this paper estimates the size of elderly poor and tests the hypotheses that elderly households are not economically better-off compared to non-elderly households in India. Poverty estimates are derived under three scenarios??by applying the official cut-off point of the poverty line to household consumption expenditure (unadjusted), consumption expenditure adjusted to household size and consumption expenditure adjusted to household composition. Results show that an estimated 18?million elderly in India are living below the poverty line. On adjusting the consumption expenditure to household size and composition, there are no significant differences in the incidence of poverty among elderly and non-elderly households in India. This is in contrast to the notion that elderly households are better off than non-elderly households in India. Based on the findings, we suggest that the age dimension should be integrated into social policies for evidence based planning.     

New Evidence on the Urbanization of Global Poverty

One‐quarter of the world's consumption poor live in urban areas, and that proportion has been rising over time. Over 1993–2002, the count of the “$1 a day” poor fell by 150 million in rural areas but rose by 50 million in urban areas. The poor have been urbanizing even more rapidly than the population as a whole. By fostering economic growth, urbanization helped reduce absolute poverty in the aggregate. There are marked regional differences: Latin America has the most urbanized poverty problem, East Asia has the least; there has been a “ruralization” of poverty in Eastern Europe and Central Asia; in marked contrast to other regions, Africa's urbanization process has not been associated with falling overall poverty.     

两人群引力模型框架下的中国死亡率预测①--结合美国相应数据

Lee－Carter系列模型是对一个人群的死亡率动态建模和预测的模型。由于中国死亡率抽样数据的质量问题导致模型预测的效果不如国外文献所反映的那么精确。本文在两人群引力模型框架下结合中国和美国同期死亡率数据建模，并将结果与相应的单人群模型比较。研究表明，引力模型与APC模型相结合取得了最好的效果，在此基础上本文预测2025年老年抚养比会急剧上升到23．32％，2030年的婚配男性人口超出女性约2079万，婴幼青少年20年间累计死亡人数约293万。     

我国贫困人口标准再探讨

近几年,通过对我国10余个贫困县的考察,笔者认为:农村贫困人口标准过低,仅相当于国际贫困线确定的最低贫困人口标准的1/5,相当其贫困标准的1/10;相当于我国监狱囚犯生活标准的1/4,相当于美国贫困人口标准的1/50。贫困人口难以完成在当时社会一般的、正常状况下劳动力的再生产。农村贫困人口从2亿多减少到2000多万,主要不是扶贫工作所致,而是到城镇打工。依据马克思劳动力价值学说的基本原理,抓紧调整提高农村贫困人口标准,改进扶贫工作机制,对我国的长治久安和建设和谐社会的大局有利。     

How Many More Missing Women? Excess Female Mortality and Prenatal Sex Selection, 1970–2050

Sex‐based discrimination has resulted in severe demographic imbalances between males and females, culminating in a large number of “missing women” in several countries around the world. We provide new estimates and projections of the number of missing females and of the roles played by prenatal and postnatal factors in this imbalance. We estimate time series of the number of missing females, the number of excess female deaths, and the number of missing female births for the world and selected countries. Estimates are provided for 1970–2010 and projections are made from 2010 to 2050. We show that the estimates of these different indicators are consistent with one another and account for the dynamics of the population of missing females over time. We conclude that the number of missing females has steadily risen in the past decades, reaching 126 million in 2010, and the number is expected to peak at 150 million in 2035. Excess mortality was the dominant cause of missing females in the past, and this is expected to remain the case in future decades in spite of the recent rise of prenatal sex selection. The annual number of newly missing females reached 3.4 million in 2010 and is expected to remain above 3 million every year until 2050.     

Poverty in America: trends and new patterns

Poverty trends in the US between 1959-83, as revealed by census data, are described, 1984 government expenditures on social programs are delineated, contrasting explanations put forth to explain the increase in poverty between 1978-83 are critically examined, and some practical suggestions for reducing poverty levels are made. Between 1959-73, the absolute number and the proportion of individuals below the poverty line decreased respectively from 39.5-23.0 million and from 22.4%-11.1%. Between 1973-78, poverty rates fluctuated somewhat. Between 1978-83, the absolute number and proportion of poor increased respectively from 24.5-35.3 million and from 11.4%-15.2%. Between 1978-83, the depth of poverty also increased. The proportion of families with incomes below US$5000 increased from 3.9%-5.7%, and the median income for poor families declined. Some experts, such as Charles Murray, attribute the increase in poverty to federal poverty programs. Murray maintains that poverty programs undermine the work ethic and encourage the creation of female headed households. Others, including Michael Harrington, attribute the increase in poverty to structural changes in the economy and to changes in the composition of the population. Harrington maintains that the decline in the number of manufacturing jobs, the lack of employment opportunities for unskilled workers, and the entry of the baby boom generation into the working age population makes it increasingly difficult for young males, and especially for black males, to find jobs offering financial security. The present analysis provided more support for the latter explanation than for the former explanation. Numerous studies indicate that there is considerable movement in and out of poverty and that most individuals are poor because they cannot find jobs. The American public has a mistaken impression about the amount of money expended by the government to provide assistance to the poor. The bulk of the government's social expenditures goes to the middle class. There are 4 major types of social benefit programs. These are 1) non-means-tested cash assistance programs, including social security retirement and disability and unemployment insurance; 2) means-tested cash assistance programs, including Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC); 3) noncash, non-means-tested benefits, such as Medicare for the elderly; and 4) noncash, means-tested benefits, such as Medicaid. In fiscal year 1984, means-tested benefits amounted to US$61.0 billion. In contrast, non-means-tested benefits amounted to US$262.7 billion. Female headed households, especially among blacks increased considerably in recent years; however, the major reason for this increase is the shortage of black males with incomes sufficiently large to support a family. Recommendations for reducing poverty without seriously increasing the federal deficit are 1) to provide relevant job training so that all able-bodied individuals can become productive taxpayers; 2) to change the tax code so the poor do not have to pay taxes; 3) to standardize AFDC payments throughout the country and to tie the payments to the inflation rate; 4) to expand successful programs, e.g., Headstart, and; 5) to reinstitute programs to help welfare mothers become independent.     

2007年国民经济和社会发展统计公报（摘选）

年末全国总人口为132129万人,比上年末增加681万人。全年出生人口1594万人,出生率为12．10％e;死亡人口913万人,死亡率为6．93％e;自然增长率为5．17％e。出生人口性别比为120．22。     

The United Nations on the Demographic Impact of the AIDS Epidemic

A report prepared by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and released in Geneva on 27 June 2000 (just prior to the XIIIth International AIDS Conference held in Durban, South Africa) updates estimates of the demographic impact of the epidemic. It characterizes AIDS in the new millennium as presenting “a grim picture with glimmers of hope”—the latter based on the expectation that national responses aimed at preventing and fighting the disease are in some places becoming more effective. According to the report, which emphasizes the considerable statistical weaknesses of its global estimates, the number of people living with HIV/AIDS in 1999 was 34.3 million (of which 33.0 million were adults and 1.3 million were children under age 15; slightly less than half of the adults affected, 15.7 million, were women). Deaths attributed to AIDS in 1999 amounted to 2.8 million, bringing the total since the beginning of the epidemic to 18.8 million. These figures represent moderate upward revisions of earlier UN estimates shown in the Documents section of PDR 25, no. 4. The revised estimate of the number of persons newly infected with HIV in 1999 is, in contrast, slightly lower: 5.4 million, of which 4.7 million were adults and 2.3 million were women. An excerpt from the 135‐page Report on the Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic, focusing on countries in the worst‐affected area, sub‐Saharan Africa, is reproduced below. (Figures shown have been renumbered.)     

Continued Reductions in Mortality at Advanced Ages

Mortality data for 30 mostly developed countries available in the Kannisto–Thatcher Database on Old‐Age Mortality (KTDB) are drawn on to assess the pace of decline in death rates at ages 80 years and above. As of 2004 this database recorded 37 million persons at these ages, including 130,000 centenarians (more than double the number in 1990). For men, the probability of surviving from age 80 to age 90 has risen from 12 percent in 1950 to 26 percent in 2002; for women, the increase has been from 16 percent to 38 percent. In the lowest‐mortality country, Japan, life expectancy at age 80 in 2006 is estimated to be 6.5 years for men and 11.3 years for women. For selected countries, average annual percent declines in age‐specific death rates over the preceding ten years are calculated for single‐year age groups 80 to 99 and the years 1970 to 2004. The results are presented in Lexis maps showing the patterns of change in old‐age mortality by cohort and period, and separately for men and women. The trends are not favorable in all countries: for example, old‐age mortality in the United States has stagnated since 1980. But countries with exceptionally low mortality, like Japan and France, do not show a deceleration in death rate declines. It is argued that life expectancy at advanced ages may continue to increase at the same pace as in the past.     

中国农业劳动力占比变动因素估测:1990～2030年

在模型演示农业劳动力占劳动力总量比率受农业劳动力新进入量、退出量、转出量及非农劳动力变化等因素影响的基础上,文章估测了1990～2030年上述各指标的变动及贡献。在未来农业劳动力占比中位降速假设下,农业劳动力新进入量将从2005～2010年的2 023万人下降到2025～2030年的1 142万人,转出量与退出量分别从4 220万人和3 843万人下降到2 704万人和2 949万人,非农就业新增量从6 969万人下降到3 508万人。2005～2010年新进入、退出和转出量对占比下降影响分别为-15.1%、34.7%和38.1%,预计三者对2025～2030年占比变动的影响将分别变为-22.6%、54.3%、49.8%。针对农业劳动力转移与非农就业岗位创造压力趋于缓和但仍将长期存在的特点,作者认为,中国就业政策应从侧重数量扩张向"数量与质量、速度与结构"并重的方向调整。     

天津市维吾尔族外来人口就业与生活状况调查报告

新疆伽师县近36万人口中,维吾尔族占98%,是典型的少数民族县,也是国家级贫困县。近年来,伽师县重点发展订单式劳务经济,走出了一条迅速脱贫的路子,使2004~2006年全县农民人均收入平均每年增长23.65%,2007年上半年劳务收入即接近2006年全年劳务收入。本文以问卷调查方式研究了伽师县在天津市的订单劳务经济。认为伽师县的做法值得全国200多个少数民族贫困县借鉴。     

独生子女大规模进入婚育年龄对我国人口发展的影响

大规模的独生子女进入婚育期以及我国差异化的人口控制政策,必然使政策生育率上升。其后果主要表现为：一、理论上每年出生人数增加约160万。使我国人口峰值提高了约4800万;二、弱化我国人口政策的区域差异所导致的人口素质“逆淘汰”,加快人口素质的提高,同时长期偏高的出生性别比也将得到一定程度的缓和;三、城镇将出现大量的“四二一”家庭,而且家庭空巢阶段也将提前到来,空巢家庭比例快速上升。     

Falling Short of Highest Life Expectancy: How Many Americans Might Have Been Alive in the Twentieth Century?

Life expectancy at birth in the United States during the twentieth century was lower than in many other highly developed countries. We investigate how this mortality disadvantage in the last 100 years translates into the number of hypothetical lives lost and their sex and age structure. We estimate the hypothetical US population if it had experienced in each decade since 1900 the mortality level of the country with the then highest life expectancy and compare the results to the actual figures in 2000. By 2000, the number of additional people who could have been alive had the mortality levels in the United States been as low as those in countries with the highest life expectancy was 66 million. This number is distributed equally between males and females. Suboptimal mortality at reproductive ages is crucial for the cumulative effect of potential lives lost, resulting from premature deaths of women who could still become first‐time mothers or bear additional children. Out of the 66 million additional persons who could have been alive in 2000, 45 million are attributable to those indirect deaths. Although the differences in the composition of the population by sex and age under the two mortality regimes are minor, the majority of people who might have been alive—54 million—were of working age or younger.     

Three methods of estimating births averted nationally by contraception

This paper compares the performance of three methods applicable to national-level demographic data of estimating births averted as a consequence of contraceptive practice. Two are based on the relationship between the general fertility rate (GFR) or total fertility (TFR) and contraceptive prevalence, while the third uses Bongaarts' proximate determinants (PD) model. Estimates of the number of births averted and the percentage by which the number would have increased in the absence of contraception are consistent between the GFR-based and TFR-based methods, but in general lower than the estimates generated by the PD-based method, except for a few high-contraceptive-prevalence countries. For 156 countries and areas around the world the estimated number of births that would have occurred in a recent year in the absence of contraception--the average of the estimates of the three methods--is approximately 230 million, which is more than the estimated 129 million births that actually occurred.     

中国老年人的生活自理能力状况与变化

本文利用2004年全国人口变动抽样调查数据对中国老年人的生活自理能力进行了分析,又与1994年老年人生活自理能力进行了对比。分析结果表明,2004年我国老年人中有8.9%生活不能自理,由此推算全国生活不能自理的老年人已经超过1200万人。分年龄、性别和城乡的老年人生活自理能力存在明显差别,年龄越大生活自理能力越差、女性不能自理比例高于男性、农村比城市差、中西部地区生活不能自理比例远高于东部地区。与1994年相比,中国老年人的生活自理能力总体上略有下降,需要进一步关注老年人的生活质量。     

中国少数民族人口发展形势分析

一、人口数量 20世纪80年代,中国少数民族人口一度高速增长,从1982年的6643万人增至1990年的9057万人,年均增长率达到3．89％,占全国人口的比例从6．62％提高到8．01％。1990—2000年,根据“五普”资料,全国（大陆）人口增加了9．92％,其中,汉族人口由103919万人增至113739万人,增加了9．45％,全国人口和汉族人口年均增长率分别为0．91％和0．87％;     

A special section for correspondence and controversy

Summary The programs described above cost the state about $1 billion. Other state costs (which are not my responsibility) are incarceration costs for illegals, $400 million. Education cost for children of illegals has been estimated to be $1.7 billion this year. These two alone equal $2.1 billion.Please accept my assurances, and those of Governor Wilson, that we in the administration are not xenophobic or nativistic.I do not know if 8.6 million persons is a reasonable number for our nation of 250 million plus to accept and assimilate. I am convinced that 4.3 million is too many for a single state of 30 million to assimilate effectively. Certainly the costs of doing so are beyond our capacity to absorb without help.I am convinced that our existing assimilation ability is hamstrung by federal practice that ignores our immigration laws by permitting an unchecked flow of illegal immigrants into our country. Over half of this population enters and resides in California.The problem is exacerbated by the almost total failure of the federal government to support itslegal immigration decisions with federal funds to offset the costs of the resultant influx of immigrants.Presented at the Pacific Research Institute Conference on immigration, San Francisco, CA, April 25, 1994.     

Eradication of the melon fly,Dacus cucurbitae, from Kume is., Okinawa with the sterile insect release method

Summary The sterile insect release method was applied to eradicate the melon fly,Dacus cucurbitae, from the 58.5 km² island of Kume, in the Okinawa Islands group. Weekly releases of 1 to 1.5 million flies irradiated as pupae with 6–7 kR from a cobalt-60 source did not decrease the wild melon fly population. Releases of 1.5–2 million pupae per week made from September, 1975 to January, 1976 decreased the percent egg-hatch of females caught on Kume Is., but did not decrease the percent infestation significantly. The number of pupae released was increased from February, 1976 to accelerate the eradication process. When the number of pupae released exceeded 3.5 million per week, a rapid increase in the ratio of marked (sterile) to unmarked (wild) flies, a remarkable decrease in percent egg-hatch, and a decrease in percent infestation of fruits were observed. There has been no sign of melon fly infestation in wild cucurbit fruits from October, 1976 to the present time (April, 1977), despite the fact that more than 70,000 fruits were carefully examined. The eradication of the melon fly from Kume Is. was thus achieved by April, 1977, after the release of 264 million sterile fly pupae.     

The data of 1995 1 percent sample population survey in Shanghai

A 1% sample survey was conducted in Shanghai during October 1995. Findings indicate that de jure population was 14.135 million people vs. 13.34 million people in 1990 (an increase of 0.795 million). Part of the increase in population (0.455 million people) during 1990-95 is due to changes in definition of the de jure population. In 1995, de jure means residents of the city for 6 months or more compared with the 1990 requirement of at least 12 months' residency. Natural population growth and net migrants accounted for 0.34 million of the increase in population during 1990-95. The birth rate was 5.75/1000 population in 1995 in Shanghai, or 81,200 births. The death rate was 7.05/1000 population, or 99,600 deaths. The natural rate of growth was a negative 0.13% or a decline of 18,400 population. Households numbered 4.394 million. Average household size was 3.13 members. 12.454 million people out of the total of 14.135 million people held household registration in Shanghai. Han ethnic groups comprised 99.48% of Shanghai's population, or 14.061 million people. The Han population declined by 0.06% during 1990-95. Other minority populations comprised 74,000 people. 11.838 million were township population. The proportion of township population increased from 66.73% in 1990 to 83.75% in 1995. The number of people who received a higher education reached 9045 people, which was an increase of 1508 people during 1990-95. Population with at least 12 years of education numbered 21,007 people, an increase of 1489 people during 1990-95. 34,395 had 9 years of education, and 21,905 had 6 years of education. The illiterate or semiliterate population over 15 years of age numbered 989,000 people, which was 7.0% of the total city population or a decline of 4 percentage points during 1990-95.