意愿与行为：外来人口与本地居民之间的社会互动①--基于东部“人口倒挂”藕村的个案分析

外来人口与本地居民之间的社会互动,是考量外来人口适应并融入城市社会的重要指标。基于浙江省L区“人口倒挂”藕村的调查,研究发现：（1）本地居民对外来人口的主观评价总体正面偏上,但接纳意愿较低,不愿与外来人口建立比较亲密的关系;（2）外来人口对本地居民的主观评价总体负面偏下,但接纳意愿较高,希望与本地居民建立比较亲密的关系;（3）外来人口与本地居民之间的互动行为,总体具有偶尔性、封闭性、浅层性的特点,互动情况不容乐观,但彼此基本相安无事;（4）无论是互动意愿还是互动行为,年轻一代相比年长一代总体具有更多积极表现,但是也具有更强的互动张力,即年轻一代之间更易于发生矛盾冲突。研究认为,当前外来人口与本地居民之间的互动在某种意义上是“纠结型互动”,相比“摩擦性互动”,这是一种处于变迁之中的新型且积极的关系形态。     

Does Intergenerational Educational Mobility Shape the Well-Being of Young Europeans? Evidence from the European Social Survey

The level of accessibility to basic services is an important issue because it is closely related to social inclusion and social capital, key aspects of societal well-being. There is a large and growing literature on access to health care in an era of dwindling public resources due to recent economic downturns. Health care is an essential service, but it is not the only basic service. The literature on access to basic services including, but not limited to, health care is relatively small. The paper aims at contributing to the literature by providing a new index to measure and monitor household accessibility to basic services. A study of Italian regions is presented. It is shown that northern regions have more accessible basic services than central, southern and island regions. A longitudinal comparison has been performed. The results are very worrying because show that policy makers have failed in reducing regional (and in particular north–south) disparities in basic service accessibility. Measuring and monitoring the level of accessibility is central for an adequate provision of basic services and for exploring how the delivery of basic services in the most problematic regions can be improved.     

Carrying Capacity Reconsidered

The concept of carrying capacity has gained broad currency, although some population ecologists are dubious about its value. This paper assesses the utility of the concept and develops an alternative understanding of population growth. First, carrying capacity is viewed in historical perspective and evidence that is supposed to support it is criticized. Then the underlying assumptions upon which it rests are reexamined. Limits to growth are seen to be both multiple and variable. The mechanism that is supposed to regulate population is critically reviewed. And the assumptions of balance in nature and equilibrium in biotic communities are reevaluated. These assumptions having been found wanting, population growth is reassessed in relation to environmental variability. The strategies by which different species cope with variability are described, and the windfall effect, which causes some populations to grow rapidly and then collapse, is identified. Finally, it is suggested that carrying capacity may be a self-validating belief and that is has limited relevance to human population growth, which is better understood in other ways.     

人口老龄化的认知和应对：积极的与消极的

正确认知和积极应对老龄化是老龄事业健康发展的前提。在＂消极论＂看来,＂老龄化即是衰亡＂,须提高出生率和＂社会化养老＂以应对。积极的认知是：老龄化负荷着积极的价值而非＂衰亡＂,人口数量过多是＂心膂之忧＂,控制人口对合理年龄结构具优先性;提高出生率无异于＂饮鸩止渴＂,＂社会化养老＂则是一个模糊而不宜使用的概念。积极的应对之策是,发展＂家庭养老＂和＂社区服务＂,在政府负责、主导下,建立＂三结合＂的赡养体系和服务体系,＂给岁月以生命＂并坚持＂节制生育＂。     

The graying of Japan

Japan's rapidly aging population has become a top policy issue, especially as the increasing costs of pensions and medical care are debated. With the highest life expectancy on earth, the Japanese potentially face long periods of retirement, as well as the possibility of long periods of disability. Although family support of the elderly is thought to have been strong traditionally, the recent decline in co-residence with children is 1 indication that the way support is given may be changing. This issue is of particular concern to the government, which wants to avoid any greater responsibility for the elderly than is necessary given the dramatic population aging yet to come. The government is also encouraging employers to provide more employment opportunities for the elderly at the same time that it is trying to raise the eligibility age for the receipt of public pensions. There is resistance on the part of employers, however, because wages and retirement allowances in Japan are positively related to length of employment. Furthermore, it is not clear whether elderly Japanese of the future will be as willing to work, if they learn to enjoy increased leisure early in their careers. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that population aging will lead to Japan's economic decline. Although the savings rate may decline somewhat, restructuring of the economy and continued overseas investment should keep the economy growing in the long run. Important in both the care of the frail elderly and the continued growth of the economy will be the roles played by middle-aged Japanese women.     

Money value of consumption and income of rural families: Two measures of economic status

In this study a measure of economic status, money value of consumption, is defined and its relationship to income is examined using data collected from 628 U.S. rural families and 1170 North Carolina rural families. Findings suggest that for rural families money value of consumption is linearly related to income, that the variance of money value of consumption is proportional to income and that money value of consumption is more equally distributed than income. Money value of consumption is more closely related to income for one-and four-or-more-person families than for two-or-three-person families. A comparison of how the two measures (money value of comsumption and income) rank rural families by consumption status indicates that income is most likely to rank families inaccurately at very low and very high levels of income. Findings should assist in the appropriate interpretation of income when it is used as a proxy for consumption.     

中国老年人不健康寿命变动的分状态贡献率研究

结合2005年1％人口抽样调查数据与全国2010年人口普查数据，运用Sullivan法，研究老年人不健康寿命变动的分状态贡献率。结果表明：60—97岁老年人的不健康阶段主为不健康但生活能自理状态，而97岁以上老年人的不健康阶段主为生活不能自理状态；与2005年相比。老年人不健康寿命及比重均变小，符合”疾病压缩理论”，但分状态寿命的变动趋势存在显著差异；生活不能自理状态对不健康寿命缩短的贡献率大于不健康但生活能自理状态。因此，老年个体不仅整体健康状况改善．健康结构也在不断优化：这意味着老年个体对照护资源需求量及需求种类均发生变化。     

A Gompertz fit that fits: Applications to canadian fertility patterns

In this paper an attempt is made to refine the method of fitting the Gompertz function to the cumulative fertility rates by using iterative techniques. The method is tested with the historical data series for the Canadian population. The demographic implication of the parameters of the Gompertz function as fitted to the fertility distribution is examined, and the usefulness of the method in projecting future fertility trends is studied. The Makeham function is also fitted to the fertility distribution by the same iterative technique, and the relative efficiency of this function is compared with that of the Gompertz.     

长春市现代服务业现状及发展趋势分析

现代服务业的发达程度是社会现代化水平的重要标志。从近年数据看,长春市现代服务业总量增长1倍;现代服务业和传统服务业比重平分秋色。现代服务业占GDP比重保持在1/5上下浮动。按照笔者预测,长春市未来现代服务业增加值占服务业增加值的比重将持续下降。未来长春市现代服务业比重最大的4个行业的发展态势为:最被看好的是教育业,其发展将持续上升;最有发展潜力的是租赁和商务服务业;变化中发展的是金融业,虽然其发展态势有降有升,但最近呈上升态势;最让人担忧的是信息传输、计算机服务、软件业,下降的速度过快。     

Studying Marx's discussion on the position and role of population in social and economic development]

According to Marx and Engels, population is the premise for material life. The difference between man and animal is that man, in order to exist, must have a means of subsistence; thus, his 1st historical activity is to produce these means while at the same time reproduce himself. The function and position of population is to serve as the basis and primary force for all social productive activities. Population further serves as the basis for its own material production. All human relationships and functions, regardless of form or situation, influence material production. Actually, population itself is a kind of productive force as well as consuming force. Population produces material goods which ultimately are used by the population. Hence population is the unification of production and consumption. That is, population's activities consist of production and consumption. According to Marx, accumulated capital regulates population development; at the same time, population development influences the accumulation of capital. Population growth must be the basis for the realization of accumulated capital. In addition, population structure influences the accumulation of capital. Within a single nation, the larger the laboring class, the more prosperous is the country. Among countries, however, this principle is not necessarily so. Marx also believed that raising production rates is the basic way to increase accumulated capital. And, a necessary condition for raising production rates is to raise the quality of population.     

连片特困少数民族地区教育层次结构对农民收入增长的作用——以南疆三地州为例

连片特困少数民族农村地区是我国实现全面脱贫的攻坚区域,教育扶贫是彻底稳定脱贫的重要推手.以新疆南疆三地州少数民族农民微观调查数据为基础,通过明瑟分位数回归法,实证研究不同层级教育水平对少数民族贫困农民收入的影响.研究发现:由于南疆三地州少数民族和连片贫困的特殊性,不同层次教育对该区域少数民族农民收入的影响具有明显的差异性.其中,双语教育、高等教育、技能培训对收入增长的促进作用显著,初中教育和职业教育对收入影响不显著,职业教育处于"有功不明"的状态;而高中教育与收入增长呈现负相关关系,与高等教育的教育收益率显著为正形成悖论.因此,要完善连片特困少数民族地区教育结构,目前重中之重是全面普及高中教育,重视职业教育,跨出"教育门槛",解决教育的断崖式贫困问题.     

Natural resources and the environment: The challenge of economic and social development

In a global society committed to ever-expanding economic and social development, natural resource professionals must adopt an enlarged perspective of their professions—a truly global perspective. The objective, professional-as-scientist concerned only with a single discipline in a limited region, is no longer adequate to the task. It is no longer enough to limit the focus of our "professional" concern to traditional natural resource management issues. World population pressures, the growing dangers of global air pollution and nuclear war threaten the entire global environment we have sought to conserve. It is time to bring some passion to the service of reason. It is time to understand worldwide air pollution and issues of war and peace as environmental problems. It is time to recognize that population policy is natural resource policy writ large.This paper is adapted from an address of the same title to the Opening General Session of the 1987 National Convention of the Society of American Foresters, Minneapolis on October 19, 1987. Carl Reidel is the Daniel Clarke Sanders Professor of Environmental Studies; and Director of the Environmental Program, The University of Vermont. He is Director and past President of the American Forestry Association; Director of the National Wildlife Federation; former Director of the National Parks and Conservation Association, and has served on the faculties of Williams College, Yale and Harvard Universities, and the University of Minnesota. Send reprint requests to Dr. Reidel, 153 South Prospect Street, Burlington VT 05401 -13595.     

浅谈人口普查地理区域划分

在人口普查中 ,划分普查地理区域便于普查工作的组织实施 ,是保证登记不重不漏的可靠基础 ,是建立普查数据质量控制体系的有效途径 ,并能为后续工作提供依据。划分原则一般是普查区域尽可能与行政区划相吻合 ,逐级划分 ,地域覆盖不漏不重 ,特殊地区特殊对待。划分重点在于普查区和调查小区     

The Use of Social Surveys to Measure Drought and the Impact of Drought

Although the term drought is widely used, defining it is conceptually and technically difficult and there is no generally accepted definition. This article uses data from an Australian social survey of people living in agricultural areas to test the validity of using general social surveys to ask respondents whether they are living in an area that is drought affected. Strong evidence is found that the survey based self-report measure of drought is both internally consistent and correlated with the standard Australian meteorological (rainfall deficit) measures of drought and thus provides a valid measure of whether individuals are experiencing the drought. The relationship between self-report drought and the standard meteorological measure of drought and financial hardship and changes in financial position is estimated. While a negative association between drought and financial position is found for both measures, the relationship is stronger for the self-report than the meteorological definition. The self-report measure is more closely linked to the economic, social and community impacts of low rainfall and provides greater flexibility in the geographic area over which drought is measured—thus survey data about drought allows respondents to define the area in way which is meteorologically, topographically or agriculturally meaningful.     

人口安全视野下农业女性化问题研究

本文从人口安全的视野研究农业女性化现象。本文认为,农村剩余劳动力非农转移是农业女性化产生的直接原因,经济利益最大化是农业女性化产生的内在原因,传统的性别观念是农业女性化产生的根本原因,女性劳动力人力资本处于劣势是农业女性化产生的重要原因。农业女性化现象产生以下重要的人口安全问题：一是农村劳动力人口结构中女性居多,不利于农业发展;二是农村人口素质普遍降低,不利于农村发展;三是女性人口的安全与发展受到严重威胁,不利于农村社会稳定;四是农村婚姻破裂和老人失养现象增多,不利于家庭稳定与和谐。为此,要以社会风险的理念和整体的思路治理农业女性化这一现象,加大城乡统筹力度,促进城乡人口结构分布合理;更新理念消除性别歧视,维护农村女性素质发展;强化人口宏观管理,促进城乡人口科学有序流动;改革相关配套制度,保障农村女性安全和发展;构建人口风险预警机制,提高应对人口风险的能力。     

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Approach for Assessment of Urban Renewal Proposals

The problem of urban decay in Hong Kong is getting worse recently; therefore, the importance of urban renewal in improving the physical environment conditions and the living standards of the citizens is widely recognized in the territory. However, it is not an easy task for the Hong Kong Government to prepare welcome urban renewal proposals because the citizens, professionals and other concerned parties have their own expectations which are difficult to be addressed all at the same time. Although it is impossible to satisfy all stakeholders concerning urban renewal, it is preferable to have proposals conforming to the interests of the majority and beneficial to the present and future generations. This paper adopts the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to work out the most sustainable design proposal for an area undergoing urban renewal. AHP is a robust multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method for solving social, governmental and corporate decision problems. Since there is a lack of published papers demonstrating a systematic and effective way for urban renewal proposal assessment, this paper attempts to fill this gap with the help of AHP.     

我国老年人健康自评影响因素分析

健康自评是研究对象对自身健康的主观感受,是调查中经常运用的变量。健康自评能够反映健康状态的主观和客观两个方面,因此健康自评可以作为评价老年人健康状况的一个重要指标。采用2002年全国老年调查数据,做不同老年人群体的健康自评的差异性分析并进一步探究影响因素。旨在回答我国老年人健康自评的影响因素,对老年人自身和政策制定者提供参考依据。健康的生活方式对健康自评有积极的影响,身体的健康和健康自评有很强的相关性,老年人的社会人口学特征对健康自评影响十分有限。     

A sound population program

A sound population program must respond to real human needs, must be rooted in values, must generate results, must be administered in an integrated manner, must be based on the ethic and goal of self reliance and on the belief that it must operate and grow on its own steam, and must release human resources for productive economic endeavors. To make any sense at all, population must be linked to the gut level needs of the individual. People should not be viewed as demographic statistics, and the word human should be used in the basic sense of hunger and poverty. If the goal is to bring about lasting change in the way that Filipinos manage their lives and their living, it is necessary to probe their values. If social change is the goal, tradition must be challenged. In the area of family planning, persons who can communicate the fact that the program seeks to enrich life more than prevent birth must be chosen. There has been some criticism that the population/family planning program is "too contraceptive oriented" and too mechanistic in the approach to population. Contraception is behavior, a good measure of acceptance and an effective measure of commitment. The delivery of welfare must be horizontally integrated. Thus it is necessary to learn to work in teams, teams of development workers. The value of self determination and the conscious practice of planning and shaping one's life is the very logic of family planning. The program needs to implant the values of family planning firmly in the community, or, more accurately, in the small face to face primary groups where social norms are set and where change must take place if it is to last. The answer to how to achieve a sound population program lies less in what is done than how it is done.     

Transformation using ( x + 0.5) to stabilize the variance of populations

Transformation is required to achieve homo-scedasticity when we perform ANOVA to test the effect of factors on population abundance. The effectiveness of transformations decreases when the data contain zeros. Especially, the logarithmic transformation or the Box–Cox transformation is not applicable in such a case. For the logarithmic transformation, 1 is traditionally added to avoid such problems. However, there is no concrete foundation as to why 1 is added rather than other constants, such as 0.5 or 2, although the result of ANOVA is much influenced by the added constant. In this paper, I suggest that 0.5 is preferable to 1 as an added constant, because a discrete distribution defined in {0, 1, 2, . . .} is approximately described by a corresponding continuous distribution defined in (0, ≧) if we add 0.5. Numerical investigation confirms this prediction. Received: October 16, 1998 / Accepted: June 10, 1999     

The role of marital sexual abstinence in determining fertility: A study of the Yoruba in Nigeria

Summary Although sexual abstinence has probably been the single most important factor in restricting human fertility, Western researchers have tended to regard it as a phenomenon mostly found outside marriage. The research reported here was carried out amongst the Yoruba, a sub Saharan people, among whom it is more desirable in terms of social stability to practise female sexual abstinence mainly within marriage, rather than outside it. A similar situation is found widely in tropical Africa. Data are reported from five surveys carried out in 1973-75 in the Changing African Family and Nigerian Family Projects. Three types of marital abstinence are shown to have an effect in reducing fertility: post-natal abstinence (often wrongly described as a 'taboo'), terminal abstinence, and abstinence at other times. Female sexual abstinence is not paralleled by an equal practice of male abstinence, and the main reason for abstinence is to preserve long birth intervals and periods of lactation in a society prone to high rates of infant malnutrition and mortality. It is shown that the Index of Proportions Married (I ( m )) is only one of a number of fertility-weighted indices which can be employed to sub-divide the female reproductive span, and that a complete series of indices adding to unity can be constructed. The duration of lactation and abstinence are found to be related but, because abstinence is traditionally of longer duration, lactation amenorrhoea is of little importance in containing fertility. Married women spend less than half their reproductive lives in periods when sexual relations are possible and marital abstinence is between three and four times more important than delayed marriage in restricting fertility. The period of abstinence is shown to be changing and it is probable that it has never been of an agreed length; the concept of 'natural fertility' is examined in this light. The partial substitution of contraception for the abstinence period is analysed, and the possible effect on fertility considered.