The pattern of mortality change in Latin America

Using 69 new life tables recently made by Arriaga for Latin American countries by stable-population methods, the authors examine the mortality trends for more countries and more periods of history than have previously been available for analysis. For the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, the new tables yield a substantially lower life-expectancy than that shown by previously published life tables; for recent decades the difference is smaller, though in the same direction. As a consequence, the new tables show a speed of mortality decline in Latin America greater than the speed hitherto assumed. When the trend is analyzed in terms of economic development, it appears that the decline was extremely slow in the more backward Latin American countries until around 1930, whereas in the more advanced countries of the region, a more rapid decline had set in before that. After 1930, however, in both groups of countries the pace of decline was faster than ever, and it was virtually the same for both groups, suggesting that after that date public health measures were exerting a strong influence independently of local economic development. This result is confirmed by comparison with the past history of now developed countries; the mortality decline in Latin America after 1930 was much faster than it was historically at the same level in the industrial countries. As compared with other underdeveloped countries today, the unprecedented decline of mortality in Latin America is typical. In most underdeveloped countries, whether in Latin America or elsewhere, mortality change seems increasingly independent of economic improvement and more dependent on the importation of preventive medicine and public health from the industrial countries.     

Population pressures in Latin America

In 1950 Latin America's population of 165 million was on a par with the 166 million of North America. 2 decades of growth at nearly 3% a year pushed the total to 405 million in 1985, vs. 264 million in North America. Despite substantial fertility declines since the 1960s, continued growth is ensured by the demographic momentum built into the region's large and youthful population bases. UN medium projections put the 2025 total at 779 million, compared to 345 million in North America. This Bulletin examines the main demographic changes in Latin America since World War II and their links to economic and social changes in the region as well as their implications for international and social relations. The post World War II population surge was accompanied by massive rural-ruban and international migration, rapid urbanization, large labor shifts out of agriculture into industry and services, increased education for both men and women, and higher labor force participation for females. The rural exodus was spurred by extreme land tenure inequalities and the urban bias of postwar industrialization. The labor-saving bias of this industrialization forced exploding city populations to turn to the informal sector for jobs. Population pressures on city services and housing as well as jobs have been further exacerbated by overconcentration in a few large cities and economic downturns of the 1980s. Recent fertility declines seem to be the result of both increased access to family planning and the economic and social pressures posed by the gap between young adults' aspirations and their ability to realize them. Population and economic pressures could induce faster fertility declines than now projected but in the short run are likely to mean more employment problems, continued rapid urban growth, and even larger international immigration flows within the hemisphere, particularly to the US.     

Socio-economic determinants of mortality in Latin America

The characteristics and sources of socioeconomic differentials of mortality in Latin America, in so far as they are currently known, are examined in an attempt to clarify the present situation and its perspectives. Mortality in a population is a function of the frequency of illness (incidence) and the probability of dying of the sick individual (lethality). Information on the socioeconomic differentials of mortality in Latin America is systematically reviewed with attention directed to the following: differentials among Latin American countries, regional differences within countries, urban-rural contrasts in mortality, mortality and income level and level of education, and mortality and ethnic groups. Latin America shows considerable heterogeneity with respect to the risk of dying, which varies from 202/1000 births in Bolivia to 38/1000 in Uruguay. It is estimated that more than 1/2 of the children born in Latin America are exposed to a mortality rate of over 120/1000. A study of the urban and rural populations of 12 Latin American countries revealed that the risk for rural populations exceeds that for urban populations by 30-60%. There is extensive evidence showing that mortality is higher in the working class and is associated with lower levels of education and income. Mortality was also higher in certain indigenous groups. Socioeconomic differentials of mortality are more marked in Latin America than in the developed nations. The mother's level of educational attainment is the variable most significantly associated with infant and child mortality. The prospect of reducing the current mortality levels is dependent primarily upon the implementation of policies aimed at a more egalitarian distribution of the benefits of socioeconomic development among the population.     

The Family Context of Cohabitation and Single Motherhood in Latin America

The dramatic shift from marriage to cohabitation during the last four decades in most Latin American countries, even among the upper social strata, begs the question as to the living arrangements of cohabiting couples and single mothers. The new “Family Interrelationships Variables” in the IPUMS samples of Latin American censuses facilitated the construction of an enlarged LIPRO typology. LIPRO classifies individuals with respect to the types of households in which they are living. The results indicate that cohabiting women and single mothers aged 25 to 29 are frequently found in their parental households or in other extended or composite households. However, there are large variations depending on country and education. For instance, cohabitation is mainly in nuclear households, as in Europe, in Puerto Rico, Costa Rica, Brazil, and Argentina. It occurs mainly in the context of extended households in Peru, Bolivia, Colombia, Venezuela, Panama, and Cuba. Mexico and Chile occupy intermediate positions. In all instances co‐residence of cohabiting couples with other kin drops significantly upon the transition to parenthood, at which point there are no longer any differences between cohabiting and married couples. Single mothers, however, continue to co‐reside in extended or composite households to a larger extent, and this holds particularly for the better‐educated among them. This analysis illustrates that cohabitation of the traditional type and of the “Second Demographic Transition” type are found alongside each other, with one being more important than the other depending on country and on educational level or social class within each country.     

Counting Child Domestic Servants in Latin America

This paper summarizes trends in the use of child domestic servants in six Latin American countries using IPUMS-International census samples for 1960 to 2000. Child domestics are among the most vulnerable of child workers, and the most invisible. They may be treated kindly and allowed to attend school, or they may be secluded in their employers' home, overworked, verbally abused, beaten, and unable to leave or report their difficulties to kin. Estimates and imputations are based on labor force and relationship-to-head variables. We find that domestic service makes up a substantial fraction of girls' employment in some countries. We also analyze trends in live-in versus live-out status and school enrollment of child domestic servants. While all child workers are disadvantaged in enrollment relative to non-workers, domestics are sometimes better off than non-domestic workers. In some samples, live-ins are more likely to go to school than live-out child domestics. In others, they are substantially worse off.     

The relative importance of the components of urban growth in Latin America

Four generalizations are made. 1/ Despite the varying interpretations made by the respective authors, previous studies indicate that urban growth in Latin America is caused by both rural-urban migration and a positive rate of urban natural increase. Thus to ascribe Latin American urban growth to a single prime causal factor is a misleading oversimplification. 2/ Net in-migration apparently plays a larger role in determining the rate of growth of large metropolitan centers than is the case with smaller urban areas. 3/ A significant portion of urban growth in a given intercensal period may be attributed to the growth of localities previously too small to be classified as “urban”. 4/ Urban natural increase is the weighted sum of the natural increase of in-migrants (after their arrival) and urban natives. Improper recognition of this last point may lead to an overstatement of the relative importance of urban natural increase as a component of urban growth.     

The population,agriculture, and environment nexus in Latin America: country-level evidence from the latter half of the twentieth century

Unprecedented population growth and migration accompanied equally unprecedented land use and land cover change in Latin America during the latter decades of the twentieth century. Country-level data are examined with bivariate statistics to determine relationships between changes in population patterns and land use (agriculture and forest cover) from 1961 to 2001. In South America, large forest areas were eliminated during the period, while exceptionally high rates of forest clearing were ubiquitous in the Central America/Caribbean region. These environmental changes accompanied dissimilar initial population densities and different effects of population change on agriculture. While interacting with a host of political, socio-economic, and geographic processes, it appears that both Malthusian and Boserupian demographic processes were important drivers of deforestation. Given continued, though slowing, population growth, increased urban consumption, and future land use constraints, policy makers face myriad challenges in advancing sustainable agriculture-population dynamics in Latin America.     

The Educational Homogamy Gap Between Married and Cohabiting Couples in Latin America

The explosive expansion of non-marital cohabitation in Latin America since the 1970s has led to the narrowing of the gap in educational homogamy between married and cohabiting couples (what we call “homogamy gap”) as shown by our analysis of 29 census samples encompassing eight countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, and Panama (N = 2,295,160 young couples). Most research on the homogamy gap is limited to a single decade and a small group of developed countries (the United States, Canada, and Europe). We take a historical and cross-national perspective and expand the research to a range of developing countries, where since early colonial times, traditional forms of cohabitation among the poor, uneducated sectors of society have coexisted with marriage, although to widely varying degrees from country to country. In recent decades, cohabitation is emerging in all sectors of society. We find that among married couples, educational homogamy continues to be higher than for those who cohabit, but in recent decades, the difference has narrowed substantially in all countries. We argue that assortative mating between cohabiting and married couples tends to be similar when the contexts in which they are formed are also increasingly similar.     

An Optimum Population for North and Latin America

The population of North America, which now stands at nearly 300 million people, is projected to double in about 60 years, while the population of nearly 500 million people in South America is projected to double in less than 40 years. Both of these populations obtain more than 99% of their food from the land, and this percentage will increase as these populations grow. Maintaining fertile and ample land is critical if these large populations are to be fed. Soil degradation by soil erosion is a serious problem on both continents. In addition, agricultural land is being lost to urbanization and highways because of rapid population growth. Nearly a half hectare of land is needed for urbanization for each person added to the North American population; this is already causing serious problems with agriculture in some states in the United States. The land resources that are critical for food production will be especially so if the populations of both continents double to nearly 2 billion. Land resources will also be critical when both continents deplete their fossil fuels in less than 100 years and have to turn to renewable energy sources. With about 2 billion people, there will be serious shortages of food, water, and energy resources and the standard of living will significantly decline. Our assessment suggests that for a relatively high standard of living in North and South America each continent should have no more than about 200 million people, or a total of 400 million.     

New perspectives in historical demography in Latin America

The author outlines developments in the field of historical demography in Latin America. Methodological and theoretical aspects are evaluated, with a focus on the study of aggregate vital series and in-depth analysis of census data. The importance of integrating demographic analysis with social and economic history is emphasized.     

Occupational mobility and fertility in metropolitan Latin America

The relation between career mobility and reproductive behavior is examined for five cities of developing Latin American nations: Bogota, Columbia; San Jose, Costa Rica; Mexico City, Mexico; Panama City, Panama; and Caracas, Venezuela. The data are obtained from fertility surveys conducted between September, 1963, and August, 1964, in the above-named cities under the auspices of the Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía (CELADE), and the analysis is based on information from 600–800 women per city who have been married only once and married ten years or more. Career mobility is defined as an occupational change of the husband between the date of marriage and 1963–1964, based on the Hall-Jones occupational scale. Reproductive behavior is operationalized as the number of live births. The conclusion of the multiple classification analysis is that the process of career mobility in four out of five Latin American samples is not a significant factor in explaining differential reproductive behavior. These results are compatible with a variety of North American studies which stress that variation heretofore ascribed to the process of mobility is an additive composite of past and present status effects. These findings are discussed; a theoretical and methodological critique of mobility-fertility research is presented.     

The nature and effects of Latin America’s non-western trend in fertility

A study by historical comparison of the fertility trends related to mortality levels is made between Latin America and Europe. The purpose of such study is to show why Latin America did not repeat the European mortality-fertility pattern during 1930–1960. Differences between the two areas are established, and an explanation is given about the particular Latin America mortality-fertility model. The effects of such a Latin America trend are pointed out, principally in relation to population growth, city growth and labor force. Hypothetical Latin American populations are calculated under the assumption that the area has repeated the European pattern. A comparison between these hypothetical populations with the actual ones shows how different the situation of the area has actually been. Nevertheless, an analysis of the necessary fertility changes in order to reproduce the European model shows that it was impossible for Latin America to repeat the European mortality-fertility experience during 1930–1960.     

Settler Welfare on Tropical Forest Frontiers in Latin America

Because of urgent concerns to protect tropical forests in Latin America, social science research on them has been generally ‘forest-centred.’ This forest-centred approach considers the people who inhabit the frontier as agents of land use change and forest conversion focusing on how their actions affect forest cover. Welfare indicators for forest frontier populations (income, education, health, access to basic services) are addressed only incidentally in terms of how they influence land use. ‘People’ centred research, which asks questions from the perspective of human welfare such as, ‘Are frontier settlers better off than they were before?’ or ‘What kind of socio-economic impacts does frontier life have on the people who live there?” and “How can their lives be improved?,” has been less common. As a result, we know much about the impacts, especially adverse impacts, which settler activity on the frontier has on forest cover but little about the impacts settlement has on settlers, themselves. This paper attempts to shift discussion towards these kinds of questions and a more people centred approach by reviewing existing research that directly addresses the welfare of settlers in tropical forest frontiers in Latin America. We also review research that touches on settler welfare by considering the concept of ‘sustainability’ on the forest frontier and stakes out a comprise position between ‘forest’ and ‘people’ centred questions or concerns. Settler welfare is defined primarily in economic terms. Household income, wealth, and agricultural productivity are interpreted a proxies for welfare in most cases. We also consider welfare in terms of access to basic services (health and education) and living conditions. We particularly consider how settler welfare indicators may change over time on the frontier. Tropical forests, defined as tropical, moist, broadleaf forests, are the main ecological setting of interest. These forests are generally the largest unoccupied areas in many Latin American countries and are thus, also the main ‘agricultural frontier’ or areas of new settlement by small farmers.     

Fertility changes in Latin America in periods of economic uncertainty

We explored the relation between fertility and the business cycle in Latin America. First, we used aggregate data on fertility rates and economic performance for 18 countries. We then studied these same associations in the transitions to first, second, and third births with DHS individual data for ten countries. The results show that in general, childbearing declined during economic downturns. The decline was mainly associated with increasing unemployment rather than slowdowns in the growth of gross domestic product, although there was a positive relationship between first-birth rates and growth. While periods of unemployment may be a good time to have children because opportunity costs are lower, in fact childbearing was reduced or postponed, especially among the most recent cohorts and among urban and more educated women. The finding is consistent with the contention that, during this particular period in Latin America, income effects were dominant.     

The population geography of the free Negro in Ante-Bellum America

This paper deals with the overall aspects of the demography and geography of this small yet significant element in the American population before the Civil War. By means of maps and graphs, the history of the distribution of the free Negro in both the north and the south in the years 1790–1860 is traced and analysed. After the areal and demographic characteristics of this distinctive group have been determined (this includes a delineation of population regions), an effort is made to account for these phenomena, and especially for the rather peculiar migrational pattern, as well as the data permit. The almost complete lack of information on internal migration necessitates the study of sex ratio and age composition for indirect clues as to the volume and direction of movements. Some attempt is made to assess the quantitative influence of the Underground Railroad on Negro population patterns. The study of causes includes a consideration of environmental, legal, economic, social, historical, and transportational factors.     

Using housing items to indicate socioeconomic status: Latin America

This note explores the possibility of using physical housing quality information from censuses to help indicate socioeconomic status, particularly that of children, elderly people and women in developing areas such as Latin America. We develop a comparative scale from six housing items (wall material, floor material, roof material, availability of electricity, type of sewerage and water facilities) since these items are recommended by the U.N., tend to be present in most housing censuses, tend to be highly related to each other and tend to have a similar valuation. A more basic three-item scale, consisting of the last three items listed above, is also discussed because this scale might be even more widely available while providing valuable, aggregated, information. The six-item and three-item scales correlate highly with each other. There is a wide range among Latin American countries in people's distribution along the scales but the scales themselves seem applicable everywhere. Not only have they been proving useful in our own research, but both scales correlate fairly well with a country's infant mortality rate on the aggregate level and with an individual's educational attainment among men and women 15 to 59 and among elderly people 60 years of age and older.