Diagnostics for elliptical linear mixed models with first-order autoregressive errors

For longitudinal time series data, linear mixed models that contain both random effects across individuals and first-order autoregressive errors within individuals may be appropriate. Some statistical diagnostics based on the models under a proposed elliptical error structure are developed in this work. It is well known that the class of elliptical distributions offers a more flexible framework for modelling since it contains both light- and heavy-tailed distributions. Iterative procedures for the maximum-likelihood estimates of the model parameters are presented. Score tests for the presence of autocorrelation and the homogeneity of autocorrelation coefficients among individuals are constructed. The properties of test statistics are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. The local influence method for the models is also given. The analysed results of a real data set illustrate the values of the models and diagnostic statistics.     

On influence diagnostic in univariate elliptical linear regression models

We discuss in this paper the assessment of local influence in univariate elliptical linear regression models. This class includes all symmetric continuous distributions, such as normal, Student-t, Pearson VII, exponential power and logistic, among others. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing the local influence on the parameter estimates and on predictions by considering as influence measures the likelihood displacement and a distance based on the Pearson residual. Two examples with real data are given for illustration.     

Influence diagnostics for Student-t censored linear regression models

In this paper, we extend the censored linear regression model with normal errors to Student-t errors. A simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters is presented. To examine the performance of the proposed model, case-deletion and local influence techniques are developed to show its robust aspect against outlying and influential observations. This is done by the analysis of the sensitivity of the EM estimates under some usual perturbation schemes in the model or data and by inspecting some proposed diagnostic graphics. The efficacy of the method is verified through the analysis of simulated data sets and modelling a real data set first analysed under normal errors. The proposed algorithm and methods are implemented in the R package CensRegMod.     

Influence diagnostics in heteroscedastic and/or autoregressive nonlinear elliptical models for correlated data

In this paper, we propose nonlinear elliptical models for correlated data with heteroscedastic and/or autoregressive structures. Our aim is to extend the models proposed by Russo et al. 22 by considering a more sophisticated scale structure to deal with variations in data dispersion and/or a possible autocorrelation among measurements taken throughout the same experimental unit. Moreover, to avoid the possible influence of outlying observations or to take into account the non-normal symmetric tails of the data, we assume elliptical contours for the joint distribution of random effects and errors, which allows us to attribute different weights to the observations. We propose an iterative algorithm to obtain the maximum-likelihood estimates for the parameters and derive the local influence curvatures for some specific perturbation schemes. The motivation for this work comes from a pharmacokinetic indomethacin data set, which was analysed previously by Bocheng and Xuping 1 under normality.     

An Application of the Local Influence Diagnostics to Ridge Regression Under Elliptical Model

In this article, we study the effect of a minor perturbation on the ridge estimator considering the elliptical distribution for the errors. The necessary matrices for assessing the local influence under the perturbation of the explanatory variables and the scale matrix are derived. The Longley data is analyzed for illustration.     

Generalized Tobit models: diagnostics and application in econometrics

The standard Tobit model is constructed under the assumption of a normal distribution and has been widely applied in econometrics. Atypical/extreme data have a harmful effect on the maximum likelihood estimates of the standard Tobit model parameters. Then, we need to count with diagnostic tools to evaluate the effect of extreme data. If they are detected, we must have available a Tobit model that is robust to this type of data. The family of elliptically contoured distributions has the Laplace, logistic, normal and Student-t cases as some of its members. This family has been largely used for providing generalizations of models based on the normal distribution, with excellent practical results. In particular, because the Student-t distribution has an additional parameter, we can adjust the kurtosis of the data, providing robust estimates against extreme data. We propose a methodology based on a generalization of the standard Tobit model with errors following elliptical distributions. Diagnostics in the Tobit model with elliptical errors are developed. We derive residuals and global/local influence methods considering several perturbation schemes. This is important because different diagnostic methods can detect different atypical data. We implement the proposed methodology in an R package. We illustrate the methodology with real-world econometrical data by using the R package, which shows its potential applications. The Tobit model based on the Student-t distribution with a small quantity of degrees of freedom displays an excellent performance reducing the influence of extreme cases in the maximum likelihood estimates in the application presented. It provides new empirical evidence on the capabilities of the Student-t distribution for accommodation of atypical data.     

On local influence for elliptical linear models

The local influence method plays an important role in regression diagnostics and sensitivity analysis. To implement it, we need the Delta matrix for the underlying scheme of perturbations, in addition to the observed information matrix under the postulated model. Galea, Paula and Bolfarine (1997) has recently given the observed information matrix and the Delta matrix for a scheme of scale perturbations and has assessed of local influence for elliptical linear regression models. In the present paper, we consider the same elliptical linear regression models. We study the schemes of scale, predictor and response perturbations, and obtain their corresponding Delta matrices, respectively. To illustrate the methodology for assessment of local influence for these schemes and the implementation of the obtained results, we give an example.     

Estimation in nonlinear mixed-effects models using heavy-tailed distributions

Nonlinear mixed-effects models are very useful to analyze repeated measures data and are used in a variety of applications. Normal distributions for random effects and residual errors are usually assumed, but such assumptions make inferences vulnerable to the presence of outliers. In this work, we introduce an extension of a normal nonlinear mixed-effects model considering a subclass of elliptical contoured distributions for both random effects and residual errors. This elliptical subclass, the scale mixtures of normal (SMN) distributions, includes heavy-tailed multivariate distributions, such as Student-t, the contaminated normal and slash, among others, and represents an interesting alternative to outliers accommodation maintaining the elegance and simplicity of the maximum likelihood theory. We propose an exact estimation procedure to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the fixed-effects and variance components, using a stochastic approximation of the EM algorithm. We compare the performance of the normal and the SMN models with two real data sets.     

Parameter estimation of three-parameter Weibull distribution based on progressively Type-II censored samples

In this paper, the estimation of parameters for a three-parameter Weibull distribution based on progressively Type-II right censored sample is studied. Different estimation procedures for complete sample are generalized to the case with progressively censored data. These methods include the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs), corrected MLEs, weighted MLEs, maximum product spacing estimators and least squares estimators. We also proposed the use of a censored estimation method with one-step bias-correction to obtain reliable initial estimates for iterative procedures. These methods are compared via a Monte Carlo simulation study in terms of their biases, root mean squared errors and their rates of obtaining reliable estimates. Recommendations are made from the simulation results and a numerical example is presented to illustrate all of the methods of inference developed here.     

Maximum likelihood estimation of variance components in a completely random bib design

ABSTRACT

The purposes of this paper are to abstract from a number of articles variance component estimation procedures which can be used for completely random balanced incomplete block designs, to develop an iterated least squares (ITLS) computing algorithm for calculating maximum likelihood estimates, and to compare these procedures by use of simulated experiments. Based on the simulated experiments, the estimated mean square errors of the ITLS estimates are generally less than*those for previously proposed analysis of variance and symmetric sums estimators.     

Multivariate elliptical models with general parameterization

In this paper we introduce a general elliptical multivariate regression model in which the mean vector and the scale matrix have parameters (or/and covariates) in common. This approach unifies several important elliptical models, such as nonlinear regressions, mixed-effects model with nonlinear fixed effects, errors-in-variables models, and so forth. We discuss maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters and obtain the information matrix, both observed and expected. Additionally, we derived the generalized leverage as well as the normal curvatures of local influence under some perturbation schemes. An empirical application is presented for illustrative purposes.     

Response transformations in repeated measures and growth curve models

This article describes estimation and inference procedures for the parameters of the Box-Cox and foided-power transformations in repeated measures and growth curve models. Procedures for computing maximum likelihood estimates of the transformation and covariance parameters under several covanance structures (omnibus sphericity, local sphericity, and unstructured) are described. Lack of fit statistics and hypothesis tests for comparing these structures also are described. The procedures are illustrated on three data sets. Software for performing the analyses in the SAS System is described and is available from the authors.     

Influence diagnostics for censored regression models with autoregressive errors

Observations collected over time are often autocorrelated rather than independent, and sometimes include observations below or above detection limits (i.e. censored values reported as less or more than a level of detection) and/or missing data. Practitioners commonly disregard censored data cases or replace these observations with some function of the limit of detection, which often results in biased estimates. Moreover, parameter estimation can be greatly affected by the presence of influential observations in the data. In this paper we derive local influence diagnostic measures for censored regression models with autoregressive errors of order p (hereafter, AR(p)‐CR models) on the basis of the Q‐function under three useful perturbation schemes. In order to account for censoring in a likelihood‐based estimation procedure for AR(p)‐CR models, we used a stochastic approximation version of the expectation‐maximisation algorithm. The accuracy of the local influence diagnostic measure in detecting influential observations is explored through the analysis of empirical studies. The proposed methods are illustrated using data, from a study of total phosphorus concentration, that contain left‐censored observations. These methods are implemented in the R package ARCensReg.     

Variable selection approach for zero-inflated count data via adaptive lasso

This article proposes a variable selection approach for zero-inflated count data analysis based on the adaptive lasso technique. Two models including the zero-inflated Poisson and the zero-inflated negative binomial are investigated. An efficient algorithm is used to minimize the penalized log-likelihood function in an approximate manner. Both the generalized cross-validation and Bayesian information criterion procedures are employed to determine the optimal tuning parameter, and a consistent sandwich formula of standard errors for nonzero estimates is given based on local quadratic approximation. We evaluate the performance of the proposed adaptive lasso approach through extensive simulation studies, and apply it to analyze real-life data about doctor visits.     

Prediction Error Estimation Under Bregman Divergence for Non-Parametric Regression and Classification

Abstract.  Prediction error is critical to assess model fit and evaluate model prediction. We propose the cross-validation (CV) and approximated CV methods for estimating prediction error under the Bregman divergence (BD), which embeds nearly all of the commonly used loss functions in the regression, classification procedures and machine learning literature. The approximated CV formulas are analytically derived, which facilitate fast estimation of prediction error under BD. We then study a data-driven optimal bandwidth selector for local-likelihood estimation that minimizes the overall prediction error or equivalently the covariance penalty. It is shown that the covariance penalty and CV methods converge to the same mean-prediction-error-criterion. We also propose a lower-bound scheme for computing the local logistic regression estimates and demonstrate that the algorithm monotonically enhances the target local likelihood and converges. The idea and methods are extended to the generalized varying-coefficient models and additive models.     

Statistical inference for fixed-effects partially linear regression models with errors in variables

Fixed-effects partially linear regression models are useful tools to analyze data from economic, genetic and other fields. In this paper, we consider estimation and inference procedures when some of the covariates are measured with errors. The previously proposed estimations, including difference-based series estimation (Baltagi and Li in Ann Econ Finan 3:103--116, 2002) and profile least squares estimation (Fan et al. in J Am Stat Assoc 100:781--813, 2005) are no longer consistent because of the attenuation. We propose a new estimation by taking the measurement errors into account. Our proposed estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Consistent estimations of the error variance are also developed. In addition, we propose a variable-selection procedure to variable selection in the parametric part. The procedure is an extension of the nonconcave penalized likelihood (Fan and Li in J Am Stat Assoc 85:1348--1360, 2001), which simultaneously selects the important variables and estimates the unknown parameters. The resulting estimate is shown to possess an oracle property. Extensive simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed procedures.     

Some linear model techniques for analyzing small-circle spherical data

The author investigates least squares as a method for fitting small-circle models to a sample of unit vectors in R³. He highlights a local linear model underlying the estimation of the parameters of a circle. This model is used to construct an estimation algorithm and regression-type inference procedures for the parameters of a circle. It makes it possible to compare the fit of a small circle with that of a spherical ellipse. The limitations of the least-squares approach are emphasized: when the errors are bounded away from 0, the least-squares estimators are not consistent as the sample size goes to infinity. Two examples, concerned with the migration of elephant seals and with the classification of geological folds, are analyzed using the linear model techniques proposed in this work.     

Multivariate Three-Parameter Log-Elliptical Distributions

The three-parameter log-elliptical distribution class is developed for the general situation in which the hypothesis of independence for the elements in a sample is not assumed. The parameter estimators are theoretically showed to be invariant under all distributions in the class by considering only a change in the constant of the scale parameter estimator. An estimation procedure based on the three-parameter lognormal distribution is proposed for the parameter estimation problem in any three-parameter log-elliptical distribution. Two classical lognormal data sets are analyzed without assuming independence in the sample in order to illustrate the proposed estimation procedure.