The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis1

This article studies repeat or circular migration between the host and home countries using panel data for Germany, distinguishing between factors generating single moves, circular migration, and absorption. Migrants are more likely to leave early after their first arrival in Germany, and when they have social and familial bonds in the home country, but less likely when they have a job in Germany and speak the language well. Once out‐migrated, the return probability is mainly affected by remittances and family considerations. Circular migration is fostered by vocational training in the host country and older age. Whereas male migrants are 9 percent more likely to return to their home country than female migrants, gender is not significant for predicting the return to move back to Germany.     

What Moves the Highly Skilled and Why? Comparing Turkish Nationals in Canada and Germany

Based on in‐depth interviews with highly skilled and business Turkish nationals (HSBTN) in Canada and Germany, this study aims to explore why HSBTN decide to move and whether migration policy differences among the countries of destination affect recent migration motivations of HSBTN. It mainly focuses on the reasons and rationale of HSBTN and their explanations. This study argues that the high skilled and business migrants in general and HSBTN in particular move internationally as a consequence of individual‐level gain beyond economic prospects.     

Embedding or Uprooting? The Effects of International Labour Migration on Rural Households in Armenia

The impact of international labour migration on human wellbeing and socioeconomic development in communities of origin is an important yet understudied issue in contemporary migration research. This study examines whether men's labour migration from rural Armenia to Russia and other international destinations enhances the economic and social connections of the left‐behind households to their communities or, on the contrary, undermines those connections and encourages household members' own migration. Using survey data, it compares families of migrants and non‐migrants with respect to ownership of productive and major non‐productive assets in the community and women's non‐farm labour force participation, their social engagement in the village, and their desires to migrate abroad. The results of statistical tests indicate that men's migration is negatively associated with households' asset ownership and with women's non‐farm employment. The results for women's social engagement in their villages are less consistent. Finally, regardless of economic attachment, social engagement, and a host of other factors, wives of migrants were significantly more likely to wish to move abroad than women married to non‐migrants, and the difference in propensity to emigrate between migrants' and non‐migrants' wives increases with duration of husband's migration. We situate these findings in the context of Central Eurasia's international labour migration system and discuss their implications for future migration trends and for socioeconomic development of Armenia and similar settings.     

The Migration Archipelago: Social Navigation and Migrant Agency

This paper is inscribed into a new line of scholarly work seeking to cast light to the ways in which migrants convert their motivations into action within a policy framework that is characterised by many restrictions and limited opportunities to move. Drawing on recent fieldwork (2013‐2014) on irregular migrants from Afghanistan, Albania, Georgia, Pakistan and the Ukraine, in Greece, we investigate how they perceive opportunities and navigate restrictions eventually crossing borders whether unlawfully (from unguarded border areas or with fake documentation) or legally (abusing the terms of their entry/stay). The paper adopts the notion of social navigation as a heuristics tool to conceptualise the social, temporal and spatial character of the migration journey, its nodal points, and the interaction of migrants with different actors and factors that shape their migration plans and explores different types of migrant agency (recuperation, resilience and resistance) developed during the navigation process.     

Migration Planning Among Female Prospective Labour Migrants from Nepal: A Comparison of First‐Time and Repeat‐Migrants

As international female labour migration has increased, so too have efforts to prevent the exploitation of labour migrants. However, evidence to underpin prevention efforts remains limited, with little known about labour migrants’ migration planning processes. Using data from a survey of female prospective labour migrants from Nepal, this article compares socio‐demographics and migration‐planning processes between first‐time and repeat‐migrants. We identified several factors which might increase repeat‐migrants’ vulnerability to exploitation during the migration process, or obstruct their engagement in pre‐migration interventions: more rapid migration planning than first‐time migrants; lower involvement in community groups; and a perception that they already have the knowledge they need. Only one‐third of repeat‐migrants planned to go to the same destination and 42 per cent to work in the same sector as previously. With repeat‐migration a common livelihoods strategy, it is crucial that interventions are guided by evidence on the needs of both first‐time‐ and repeat‐migrants.     

Nigerians in China: A Second State of Immobility

China’s rapid economic development has been accompanied by new forms of immigration. Investors and professionals from developed countries are increasingly joined by a diverse group of immigrants from around the world. While there is a large body of academic literature on Chinese emigration, China’s new role as a country of immigration has received less scholarly attention. This paper addresses the dynamics of South–South migration to China through a study of Nigerians in Guangzhou, a major international trading hub. The analysis is based on qualitative interviews and participant observation among African traders and migrants in Guangzhou. The paper contends that Nigerian immigration to China epitomizes global migration trends towards a diversification of migration flows, commercialization of the migration process and increased policing of foreigners within national borders. China was rarely the preferred destination of this study’s Nigerian informants but, rather, a palatable alternative, as their aspirations to enter Europe and North America were curtailed by restrictive immigration regimes. They escaped a situation of involuntary immobility in Nigeria through short‐term visas obtained with the help of migration brokers. However, opportunities for visa renewals are scant under the current Chinese immigration policy. Undocumented migrants find their mobility severely inhibited: They must carefully assess how, when and with whom they move about in order to avoid police interception. This is a business impediment, as well as a source of personal distress for migrants who engage in trade and the provision of trade‐related services. The situation can be described as a “second state of immobility”: the migrants have succeeded in the difficult project of emigration, but find themselves spatially entrapped in new ways in their destination country.     

Which Skilled Temporary Migrants Become Permanent Residents and Why?1

While most countries of destination of temporary migrants expect them to return home, it is likely that some temporary migration will become permanent if the migrants decide that they would like to remain longer or indefinitely for various reasons. This paper examines the factors associated with temporary migrants’ decision to become or not become permanent residents and the reasons for their decision, using survey data on skilled temporary migrants in Australia. It also looks at whether temporary migration facilitates or substitutes for permanent migration and discusses the likely effectiveness of temporary migration programs that assume temporary migrants will return home.     

To stay or to return? Return migration intentions of Moroccans in Italy

Using data from the Statistics on Income and living conditions of families with migrants carried out by ISTAT in 2009, we empirically examine the effect of micro level determinants on Moroccans’ return migration intentions. Although Moroccans living in Italy do not have a clear aspiration to return, the socio‐economic and work conditions in Italy determine their migration intentions. Furthermore, our research led us to argue that macro‐level determinants should also be considered. In particular, emigration, immigration and integration policies represent key elements in the analysis of the dilemma between to stay or to return. Therefore, the promotion of long‐term immigration policies, which allow the achievement of a permanent residence in the host country, combined with institutional reforms, which make the origin country socially, economically and politically more attractive for migrants are essential to complete the debate about to stay or to return.     

Birds of passage no more: migration decision making among Filipino immigrants in Hawaii

Using data primarily from the Honolulu Destination Survey (HDS), which is part of the Philippine Migration Study (a study of a migration system that has its origins in Ilocos Norte, a largely rural province in the Philippines), the author examines migration decision making among Philippine immigrants in Hawaii. The HDS, conducted in 1981, interviewed 1484 residents of Honolulu who immigrated from the Ilocos Region after the US immigration law was liberalized in 1965. Results from the Philippine Migration Study (PMS) survey show that of those who did not have any intentions to move within 2 years in 1980, 88% did not move between 1980 and 1982. Of those who said they were certain to move within 2 years, 54% actually moved, while only 36% who were fairly certain and 31% who were uncertain moved. Virtually all of those who actually moved to Hawaii from 1980-1982 had intended to move to Hawaii in 1980. It thus appears that most migration is planned well in advance. For those who have already migrated, their behavior in the destination is influenced by their expectations about future migration. An estimated 20-38.7% of legal immigrants to the US from the Philippines in 1971 had emigrated as of January 1979. 49% of HDS respondents said that they did not intend to move out of Hawaii any time in the future. Among those who intend to move in the future, 69% want to return to Ilocos and 26% intend to move to the US mainland. 40% want to leave Hawaii for economic reasons and 27% for affiliation purposes. The value expectancy framework used in the PMS measures expectations of achieving one's most important goals in alternative locations. The analysis employs both binomial and multinomial logit analysis to identify significant determinants of future migration intentions. The 7 conceptual categories are: wealth, status, comfort, stimulation, autonomy, affiliation, and morality. 90% consider "having a peaceful life" followed by "getting ahead in the world" the most important values. Wealth items are next, followed by comfort variables. Affiliation items are moderately important. Autonomy and morality are considerably less important and stimulation is least. The author examines the following determinants of future intentions in a multivariate framework: 1) adjustment problems, 2) continuing contacts with the Philippines, 3) previous migration history, and 4) sociodemographic factors. This study suggests that the Ilocano immigrants will continue to develop strong ties to Hawaii since only a small proportion intend to move out of the state any time in the future.     

On‐The‐Job Skills and Earnings of Returned Migrants

In this paper we study the factors altering the probability of migrants to acquire additional on‐the‐job skills while abroad, and the determinants of their earnings level, using a sample of 6120 returned migrants from Bosnia, Bulgaria, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, Romania, and Tadjikistan. We use a two‐stage procedure to estimate a system of two equations where on‐the‐job skills and earnings are determined simultaneously. The probability of acquiring skills on‐the‐job is found to be positively affected by the level of earnings. It is also higher for migrants who are employed in the same sector (pre‐ and during migration), and for migrants with lower initial financial status. Interestingly, the probability is lower for migrants with university education. The earnings level is positively affected by acquired on‐the‐job skills, the level of education, and the duration of migration. Women have lower earnings while those (males and females) who have learned the language of the destination country have higher earnings. The country variables are statistically significant in all cases but one, indicating that there are differences in the acquisition of skills and earnings reflecting unspecified differences among the countries of origin.     

Understanding Transnational Labour Market Trajectories of African‐European Migrants: Evidence from the MAFE Survey

Labor market trajectories of migrants are seldom explored in a longitudinal and comparative perspective. However, a longitudinal approach is crucial for a better understanding of migrants' long‐term occupational attainments, while comparative research is useful to disentangle specificities and general processes across destination and origin countries. This article explores the labor market outcomes of migrants from Senegal, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Ghana in different European countries, using the MAFE data to compare their occupational attainments before migration, upon arrival and during the first 10 years of stay in Europe in a longitudinal perspective. Results highlight different pattern of migrants' selection across destinations, influenced by prior employment status and education, gender and colonial legacies, and which impact subsequent trajectories into the European labor markets. Our analyses also show a severe worsening of migrants' occupational status in Europe compared to their situation prior to migration, which is the resultant of a dramatic downgrading upon entry and of a slow occupational recovering during the first 10 years of stay in Europe. Results suggest that the educational–occupational mismatch of skilled workers might represent a long‐lasting “price” for migrants, unless (further) educational credentials are achieved in destination countries.     

Deciding Where to go: Policies,People and Perceptions Shaping Destination Preferences

There is considerable interest among European politicians and policymakers in the factors influencing the destination preferences of refugees and other migrants. Drawing on in‐depth qualitative interviews with more than 250 Syrians, Eritreans and Nigerians, this article examines the destination preferences of those crossing the Mediterranean in 2015 and the extent to which they were aware of, and/or influenced by, policies intended to control and manage their arrival. Our findings question the extent to which deterrence policies have their intended or assumed effects. Preferred destinations are rarely identified solely, or even primarily, on the basis of migration policies devised by different governments with the explicit aim of reducing the number of arrivals. Rather they reflect the “coming together” of a wide range of factors, including access to protection and family reunification, the availability/accuracy of information, the overall economic environment and social networks. Moreover perceptions of migration policies may be more significant than their content as the implications are often not known or misunderstood.     

Change and stability of migration intentions. Evidence from Italy

Due to a lack of relevant data, very few empirical studies have examined the changes in and stability of secondary migration intentions. We aim to fill this gap by analysing return migration intentions among international migrants in Italy. Data are drawn from the cross-sectional SCIF survey conducted by ISTAT in 2011–2012. Our findings reveal that migration intentions at the beginning of the migratory experience tend to differ from those measured at more advanced migration stages (i.e. at the time of the survey). In particular, intentions to return seem less stable than intentions to stay. When confirming intentions to return or remain, critical factors include financial stability, family situation and ties with the country of origin and destination. Additionally, having an Italian partner, a partner living in Italy, and a positive self-assessed family financial condition are positively associated with transitioning from a temporary plan to a permanent settlement intention.     

Morocco's Migration Experience: A Transitional Perspective1

Using a ‘transitional’ perspective on migration, which combines three theoretical approaches on dynamic development‐migration linkages, this paper interprets the evolution of migration within, from, and to Morocco over the twentieth century. Colonization and the incorporation of rural areas, along with a certain level of socio‐economic development, have spurred internal and international wage labour migration both within Morocco and from Morocco to Europe. Migration seems to be the result of development rather than the lack of development. Populations from highly marginalized regions were less likely to participate in migration than populations from the three, moderately enclosed “migration belts” which had established traditions of pre‐modern, largely circular migration. At the onset of large‐scale emigration in the 1960s, the spatial patterns of labour migration were significantly infuenced by colonial bonds with Spain and France, selective labour recruitment, and Moroccan selective passport issuance policies. However, the influence of such policies rapidly decreased due to the effects of migration‐facilitating networks. Increasingly restrictive policies coincided with a growing reliance on family migration, permanent settlement, undocumented migration, and the exploration of new migration itineraries, and had no success in reducing migration levels.Alongside patterns of decentralizing internal migration, a spatial diffusion of international out‐migration has expanded beyond the historical migration belts in response to new labour opportunities in southern Europe. Persistent demand for migrant labour, along with demographic factors and increasing aspirations, suggest that migration over formally closed borders is likely to remain high in the near future. However, in the longer term, out‐migration might decrease and Morocco could increasingly develop into a migration destination for migrants from sub‐Saharan Africa, a transition process which may already have een set in motion.     

Understanding Transit Asylum Migration: Evidence from Serbia

Due to its geographic location and borders along the European Union (EU), in recent years, the Republic of Serbia has faced an increased number of irregular migrants from third‐world countries claiming asylum on their way into a western EU member state. Some of these migrants stay for a while in asylum centres in Serbia to rest or renew contacts. In order to explore the main socio‐demographic features of the study population, their migration history and intentions, a questionnaire‐based research was conducted in Banja Kovilja?a asylum centre. The results also give insights into the underlying question “how” and the role of social networks in migration. Most of asylum seekers are unmarried males at peak working age, from countries affected by war and political turmoil. The results indicate this is a transit migration where, besides fleeing to safety, economic status and migration networks have a significant impact on migration flows.     

Gender and rural-urban migration in China

Many men and women in China are migrating in search of better economic opportunities. Young women who migrate to urban centers in search of opportunity may stay away from their home villages for several years. At some point, however, they are likely to return home. This article considers the effect which such circular migration is having upon gender relations in China. The author's argument is presented in sections on China's 1990 census, migration and the sexual division of labor, migration and child care, the influence of returning migrants, the influence of young female returnees, and the fertility of returnees. She speculates that the demands and expectations of young women who return to their villages after spending some time earning high wages in urban areas will be affected by urban norms. While their return may lead to initial conflict, it is likely that the women will retain greater personal autonomy from their urban experience. Their return is also likely to lead to a higher degree of material consumption in the rural areas. Present circular migration in China has the potential to return human and financial resources to the villages, thereby helping to prevent the urban-rural gap between economic, social, cultural, and educational factors from growing even wider.     

“Big Fish in a Small Pond”: Chinese Migrant Shopkeepers in South Africa

The steady growth of Chinese migrants to South Africa in the past decade provides an opportunity to use Sen's (2001, Development as Freedom. Oxford: Oxford University Press) capabilities approach in the field of immigration. This theoretical framing reveals that the Chinese employ, what I call, a small pond migration strategy – utilizing mobility to maximize their social, economic, and human capital. I argue that the Chinese move to South Africa because of a desire to venture out of China and pursue freedoms associated with being one's own boss. Once in South Africa, they choose to stay because of comfortable weather and a slower pace of life, despite losing freedoms associated with high crime in Johannesburg. The findings suggest alternative ways of understanding factors of migration as well as a model that explains migration from more developed countries to less developed ones.     

Global Changes and Gendered Responses: The Feminization of Migration From Georgia

While frequently discussed, the feminization of migration remains among the least understood trends in migration literature. Existing research links feminization of migration to socioeconomic change in migrant origin countries, changes in destination‐country labor markets, structural factors, and changing social attitudes. However, questions of how the feminization of migration begins and how it becomes socially institutionalized remain largely unanswered. Having experienced a recent, dramatic increase in female migration, Georgia provides an excellent case to study the emergence of women's labor migration. Our findings highlight the importance of human capital, increasing divorce rates, and an absence of local economic opportunities in motivating increasing numbers of women to migrate. Additionally, changing destination patterns and shifts in labor‐market demand toward feminized occupations act as key initial conditions enabling the growth of women's migration. As migration is feminized, cultural beliefs stigmatizing female migrants can be renegotiated to frame women's migration within normative gender approaches, providing pathways for cultural maintenance. In the early stages of the feminization of migration, we find the initial attempts to reframe migration are powerful; they can challenge, or at least delay, the expansion of women's autonomy that is often associated with migration.     

Forms of migration and measurement in social demography

"This paper is an attempt to identify the various forms of migration in demography and the associated measurements adopted and their limitation. In trying to conceptualize migration, we are in fact trying to identify those who move or migrants and those who do not move or non-migrants. Further it also involves a place or origin from where the migration starts and a place of destination where it culminates." The author discusses five aspects of territorial mobility, namely, space, residence, time, activity changes, and individual and family criteria. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Life on the Edge: Balancing Gendered and Occupational Identities among Unauthorized Mexican Migrant Roofers

Scholars have addressed the economic, gendered, and emotional dimensions of migration, especially as migrants move from origin to destination. However, scholarship on return migration and the subjective experiences of reintegrating to origin communities is poorly understood. In this paper, we examine the return migration of formerly unauthorized migrants who labored as roofers in the United States. We argue that the migration process redefines men’s masculinity as they attempt to balance family life in Mexico and their occupational lives in the U.S., all of which are essential for their identity but remain separated by an international border. We draw on 40 in-depth interviews with return migrant men in a small city in Guanajuato, Mexico to examine the emotional tensions men experience regarding the decision to remain in close proximity to family in Mexico and a desire to return again to their economically and emotionally fulfilling occupations in the U.S. We find that migrants’ nostalgia for prior U.S. labor market experience, in juxtaposition to reentry into the Mexican labor market, competes with current feelings of happiness and contentment obtained through family reintegration. These competing feelings, together with economic need, help explain the complex meaning of migration for return migrant men. We conclude by suggesting that once men have been exposed to U.S. life, the occupational identity becomes a “pull” that encourages future migration trips.