Nonparametric monitoring of equal predictive ability

This paper introduces a novel sequential approach for online surveillance of the equal predictive ability (EPA) hypothesis presumed to hold for many competing forecasting models. A nonparametric control chart is suggested for providing a decision at every new time point as to whether the EPA hypothesis remains valid. The detection ability of our procedure is evaluated in a Monte Carlo simulation study for various types of deviations from the EPA hypothesis. Our approach enables the quick detection of various shift types, is parsimonious, and robust to misspecifications. Based on these results, we formulate practical recommendations for procedure design.     

Nonparametric confidence intervals for location in time series data

We extend the confidence interval construction procedure for location for symmetric iid data using the one-sample Wilcoxon signed rank statistic (T⁺) to stationary time series data. We propose a normal approximation procedure when explicit knowledge of the underlying dependence structure/distribution is unknown. By conducting extensive simulations from linear and nonlinear time series models, we show that the extended procedure is a strong contender for use in the construction of confidence intervals in time series analysis. Finally we demonstrate real application implementations in two case studies.     

Smoothed alternatives of the two-sample median and Wilcoxon's rank sum tests

We discuss smoothed rank statistics for testing the location shift parameter of the two-sample problem. They are based on discrete test statistics – the median and Wilcoxon's rank sum tests. For the one-sample problem, Maesono et al. [Smoothed nonparametric tests and their properties. arXiv preprint. 2016; ArXiv:1610.02145] reported that some nonparametric discrete tests have a problem with their p-values because of their discreteness. The p-values of Wilcoxon's test are frequently smaller than those of the median test in the tail area. This leads to an arbitrary choice of the median and Wilcoxon's rank sum tests. To overcome this problem, we propose smoothed versions of those tests. The smoothed tests inherit the good properties of the original tests and are asymptotically equivalent to them. We study the significance probabilities and local asymptotic powers of the proposed tests.     

A weighted test of internal symmetry

This study examines extensions of McNemar's Test with multinomial responses, and proposes a linear weighting scheme, based on the distance of the response change, that is applied to one of these extensions (Bowker's test). This weighted version of Bowker's test is then appropriate for ordinal response variables. A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to examine the Type I error rate of the weighted Bowker's test for a cross-classification table based on a five-category ordinal response scale. The weighted Bowker's test was also applied to a data set involving change in student attitudes towards mathematics. The results of the weighted Bowker's test were compared with the results of Bowker's test applied to the same set of data.     

Nonparametric measures of intraclass correlation

Three nonparametric measures of intraclass correlation based on the notion of concordance are considered. Their unbiased estimators and nonparametric tests based on the estimators are studied and it is shown that an analogue of the Kendall's tau provides small variance estimator and relatively powerful test. Furthermore, the approximate variance of the estimator is given when the correlation is small in the normal model.     

Nonparametric confidence intervals for Tmax in sequence-stratified crossover studies

Tmax is the time associated with the maximum serum or plasma drug concentration achieved following a dose. While Tmax is continuous in theory, it is usually discrete in practice because it is equated to a nominal sampling time in the noncompartmental pharmacokinetics approach. For a 2-treatment crossover design, a Hodges-Lehmann method exists for a confidence interval on treatment differences. For appropriately designed crossover studies with more than two treatments, a new median-scaling method is proposed to obtain estimates and confidence intervals for treatment effects. A simulation study was done comparing this new method with two previously described rank-based nonparametric methods, a stratified ranks method and a signed ranks method due to Ohrvik. The Normal theory, a nonparametric confidence interval approach without adjustment for periods, and a nonparametric bootstrap method were also compared. Results show that less dense sampling and period effects cause increases in confidence interval length. The Normal theory method can be liberal (i.e. less than nominal coverage) if there is a true treatment effect. The nonparametric methods tend to be conservative with regard to coverage probability and among them the median-scaling method is least conservative and has shortest confidence intervals. The stratified ranks method was the most conservative and had very long confidence intervals. The bootstrap method was generally less conservative than the median-scaling method, but it tended to have longer confidence intervals. Overall, the median-scaling method had the best combination of coverage and confidence interval length. All methods performed adequately with respect to bias.     

Distribution- free test for slope in linear regression model with replications

Some distribution-free methods are suggested in the paper for testing the hypothesis about the slope parameter in a one-sample linear regression model with multiple observations at each level of independent variable. Asymptotic relative efficiencies of these tests are discussed, and the tests are compared with their nonparametric competitors.     

Conditional tests for elliptical symmetry using robust estimators

This paper presents a procedure for testing the hypothesis that the underlying distribution of the data is elliptical when using robust location and scatter estimators instead of the sample mean and covariance matrix. Under mild assumptions that include elliptical distributions without first moments, we derive the test statistic asymptotic behavior under the null hypothesis and under special alternatives. Numerical experiments allow to compare the behavior of the tests based on the sample mean and covariance matrix with that based on robust estimators, under various elliptical distributions and different alternatives. We also provide a numerical comparison with other competing tests.     

Rank invariant tests with left truncated and interval censored data

Peto and Peto (1972) have studied rank invariant tests to compare two survival curves for right censored data. We apply their tests, including the logrank test and the generalized Wilcoxon test, to left truncated and interval censored data. The significance levels of the tests are approximated by Monte Carlo permutation tests. Simulation studies are conducted to show their size and power under different distributional differences. In particular, the logrank test works well under the Cox proportional hazards alternatives, as for the usual right censored data. The methods are illustrated by the analysis of the Massachusetts Health Care Panel Study dataset.     

A comparative study of tests for paired lifetime data

In this paper, we investigate different procedures for testing the equality of two mean survival times in paired lifetime studies. We consider Owen’s M-test and Q-test, a likelihood ratio test, the paired t-test, the Wilcoxon signed rank test and a permutation test based on log-transformed survival times in the comparative study. We also consider the paired t-test, the Wilcoxon signed rank test and a permutation test based on original survival times for the sake of comparison. The size and power characteristics of these tests are studied by means of Monte Carlo simulations under a frailty Weibull model. For less skewed marginal distributions, the Wilcoxon signed rank test based on original survival times is found to be desirable. Otherwise, the M-test and the likelihood ratio test are the best choices in terms of power. In general, one can choose a test procedure based on information about the correlation between the two survival times and the skewness of the marginal survival distributions.     

Adjusted Wilcoxon signed rank test tables for ratio of percentiles

The ordinary Wilcoxon signed rank test table provides confidence intervals for the median of one population. Adjusted Wilcoxon signed rank test tables which can provide confidence intervals for the median and the 10th percentile of one population are created in this paper. Base-(n + 1) number system and theorems about property of symmetry of the adjusted Wilcoxon signed rank test statistic are derived for programming. Theorem 1 states that the adjusted Wilcoxon signed rank test statistic are symmetric around n(n + 1)/4. Theorem 2 states that the adjusted Wilcoxon signed rank test statistic with the same number of negative ranks m are symmetric around m(n+1)/2. 87.5% and 85% confidence intervals of the median are given in the table for n = 12, 13,…, 29 to create approximated 95% confidence intervals of the ratio of medians for two independent populations. 95% and 92.5% confidence intervals of the 10th percentile are given in the table for n = 26, 27, 28, 29 to create approximated 95% confidence regions of the ratio of the 10th percentiles for two independent populations. Finally two large datasets from wood industry will be partitioned to verify the correctness of adjusted Wilcoxon signed rank test tables for small samples.     

Linear signed rank tests for hultivariate location

Previously proposed linear signed rank tests for multivariate location are not invariant under linear transformations of the observations, The asymptotic relative efficiencies of the tests 2 with respect to Hotelling's T²test depend on the direction of shift and the covariance matrix of the alternative distributions. For distributions with highly correlated components, the efficiencies of some of these tests can be arbitrarily low; they approach zero for certain multivariate normal alternatives, This article proposes a transformation of the data to be performed prior to standard linear signed rank tests, The resulting procedures have attractive power and efficiency properties compared to the original tests, In particular, for elliptically symmetric contiguous alternafives, the efficiencies of the new tests equal those of corresponding univariate linear signed rank tests with respect to the t test.     

Exact tests based on the Baumgartner-Weiß-Schindler statistic—A survey

It is the purpose of this paper to review recently-proposed exact tests based on the Baumgartner-Weiß-Schindler statistic and its modification. Except for the generalized Behrens-Fisher problem, these tests are broadly applicable, and they can be used to compare two groups irrespective of whether or not ties occur. In addition, a nonparametric trend test and a trend test for binomial proportions are possible. These exact tests are preferable to commonly-applied tests, such as the Wilcoxon rank sum test, in terms of both type I error rate and power.     

Some count-based nonparametric tests for circular symmetry of a bivariate distribution

In this paper, we revisit the problem of testing of the hypothesis of circular symmetry of a bivariate distribution. We propose some nonparametric tests based on sector counts. These include tests based on chi-square goodness-of-fit test, the classical likelihood ratio, mean deviation, and the range. The proposed tests are easy to implement and the exact null distributions for small sample sizes of the test statistics are obtained. Two examples with small and large data sets are given to illustrate the application of the tests proposed. For small and moderate sample sizes, the performances of the proposed tests are evaluated using empirical powers (empirical sizes are also reported). Also, we evaluate the performance of these count-based tests with adaptations of several well-known tests such as the Kolmogorov–Smirnov-type tests, tests based on kernel density estimator, and the Wilcoxon-type tests. It is observed that among the count-based tests the likelihood ratio test performs better.     

Approximated non parametric confidence regions for the ratio of two percentiles

In the wood industry, it is common practice to compare in terms of the ratio of the same-strength properties for lumber of two different dimensions, grades, or species. Because United States lumber standards are given in terms of population fifth percentile, and strength problems arise from the weaker fifth percentile rather than the stronger mean, so the ratio should be expressed in terms of the fifth percentiles rather than the means of two strength distributions. Percentiles are estimated by order statistics. This paper assumes small samples to derive new non parametric methods such as percentile sign test and percentile Wilcoxon signed rank test, construct confidence intervals with covergage rate 1 – αx for single percentiles, and compute confidence regions for ratio of percentiles based on confidence intervals for single percentiles. Small 1 – αx is enough to obtain good coverage rates of confidence regions most of the time.     

Nonparametric tests of hypotheses for umbrella alternatives

The author proposes a general method for constructing nonparametric tests of hypotheses for umbrella alternatives. Such alternatives are relevant when the treatment effect changes in direction after reaching a peak. The author's class of tests is based on the ranks of the observations. His general approach consists of defining two sets of rankings: the first is induced by the alternative and the other by the data itself. His test statistic measures the distance between the two sets. The author determines the asymptotic distribution for some special cases of distances under both the null and the alternative hypothesis when the location of the peak is known or unknown. He shows the good power of his tests through a limited simulation study     

Nonparametric tests for scale shift at an unknown time point

A class of linear rank tests is suggested for testing a shift in scale at an unknown time point in a sequence of independent observations. The tests,based on inverse normal scores and on ordered exponential scores,are shown to be asymptotically as efficient as their distribution-oriented competitors. Critical values and powers for these two rank tests are also discussed.