Changing cultural and social environments: implications for older East Asian women

The world is aging and the trend is towards a global feminization of aging. In the Asia Pacific region, which already contains approximately 50% of the world's population over age 60, the number of older women exceeds that of older men in most countries. This article explores the changes that are occurring in East Asian social and cultural traditions for aging and discusses the implications of those changes for women who aged in that culture. In the traditional culture, Chinese, Japanese, and Korean families are influenced by values of family centrality and collective orientation to life that are mostly rooted in Confucian values and ethics. In those traditions, older women assume and maintain a valued status within the family and community through respected roles and productive contributions. However, various factors, such as migration to urban areas and demographic shifts, have precipitated modernization of these societies and alterations of traditional culture. These cultural shifts are relevant to the United States where, according to the 2000 U.S. Census, 71.0% of Asian and Pacific Islander-Americans over the age 65 are foreign-born. Immigration can prompt an immediate cultural shift and create a fast forward insight into the slower cultural evolution currently occurring in East Asian societies.     

Divorce in sub‐Saharan Africa: Are Unions Becoming Less Stable?

Divorce is one of the main drivers of family instability in sub‐Saharan Africa. Using data from 101 Demographic and Health Surveys and novel estimation techniques, we 1) provide the first systematic estimates of divorce across 33 countries; 2) assess trends in divorce in 20 countries; and 3) investigate the key country‐level correlates of divorce both across and within countries. Despite considerable geographic variation, our estimates show that divorce is common in most countries. Contrary to expectations, however, we find no evidence that divorce is increasing. Instead, divorce has been either stable or declining in recent decades. We show that socioeconomic factors associated with industrialization have countervailing effects on divorce. Urbanization and female employment are associated with higher levels of divorce, while age at first marriage and female education correspond to lower rates. These findings have implications for current and future family dynamics in sub‐Saharan Africa.     

Why Do People Become Modern? A Darwinian Explanation

A procession of cultural changes, often referred to as “modernization,” is initiated as a society undergoes economic development. But cultural change continues to be rapid in societies that industrialized several generations ago. Much of the change in both developed and developing societies is a progressive abandonment of the norms, values, and beliefs that encourage behavior consistent with the pursuit of genetic fitness. The kin influence hypothesis suggests that these changes are part of a cultural evolutionary process initiated by the replacement of largely kin‐based communities with social groups consisting largely of non‐kin. Kin have an interest in encouraging one another to behave in ways consistent with the pursuit of reproductive success, and a high level of social exchange between kin will tend to maintain norms that prescribe such behaviors. When social exchange between kin is reduced, these norms begin to relax. Cross‐national comparisons of measures that reflect attitudes and behavior support the hypothesis by showing that cultural differences between countries can be substantially explained by their position on a cultural continuum that begins with social networks widening so that they become less kin‐based.     

Life is Getting Better: Societal Evolution and Fit with Human Nature

Human society has changed much over the last centuries and this process of ‘modernization’ has profoundly affected the lives of individuals; currently we live quite different lives from those forefathers lived only five generations ago. There is difference of opinion as to whether we live better now than before and consequently there is also disagreement as to whether we should continue modernizing or rather try to slow the process down. Quality-of-life in a society can be measured by how long and happy its inhabitants live. Using these indicators I assess whether societal modernization has made life better or worse. Firstly I examine findings of present day survey research. I start with a cross-sectional analysis of 143 nations in the years 2000–2008 and find that people live longer and happier in today’s most modern societies. Secondly I examine trends in modern nations over the last decade and find that happiness and longevity have increased in most cases. Thirdly I consider the long-term and review findings from historical anthropology, which show that we lived better in the early hunter-gatherer society than in the later agrarian society. Together these data suggest that societal evolution has worked out differently for the quality of human life, first negatively, in the change from a hunter-gatherer existence to agriculture, and next positively, in the more recent transformation from an agrarian to an industrial society. We live now longer and happier than ever before.     

Social Exclusion and Its Causes in East Asian Societies: Evidences from SQSQ Survey Data

Using data from surveys on “social quality survey questionnaires”, carried out by the Asian Consortium for Social Quality between 2009 and 2011, this study investigates the causes of social exclusion in six Asian societies. About 6,460 questionnaires were completed and the analysis of the data reveals the features and the causes of social exclusion in these societies. The study concludes that the impact of social factors (maritual status, parental relations, and personal relations with local communities) on social exclusion is stronger than the political and economical factors (including class stratification and lack of financial resources). The findings indicate that the lack of social capitals is the most significant cause of social exclusion in these societies.     

Below-replacement fertility: Determinants and prospects in South Asia

Although 10 countries and two of China’s special administrative areas, totalling 1,528 million people or 44 per cent of Asia’s total population, are now characterized by fertility rates below long-term replacement levels, no such countries are yet found in South Asia. This paper first examines the characteristics of 12 Asian administrations with very low fertility at various stages of their fertility declines and then compares the findings with the present situation in three South Asian countries, Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh. This allows a prediction of when the South Asian countries will reach replacement fertility in accord with the trends in two key criteria, the percentage of girls in secondary school and the infant mortality rate. These conclusions are then buttressed for each country by the findings of anthropological demographic research programs in which the authors were involved. The predictions are that all three countries will attain a total fertility rate of 2.1 within the next 30 years and that the UN2000 Revision of the medium population projection is plausible in that regard. However, the authors part company with the UN projection in their assessment that the nature of these societies means that they will all subsequently fall to still lower fertility levels.     

Fertility decline in the modern world and in the original demographic transition: Testing three theories with cross-national data

This study uses aggregate data on a large number of the world's societies to test three theories of fertility decline in the modern world and in the original demographic transition. One prominent theory relates fertility decline to the changing economic value of children. With industrialization and overall modernization the economic value of children's labor shifts from positive to negative. This interpretation has been challenged by those who claim that the flow of wealth in preindustrial societies is always from parent to child rather than from child to parent. An alternative interpretation is that fertility levels reflect people's efforts to promote their reproductive success, and that this requires the careful tracking of infant and child mortality. Fertility rates are adjusted to the rate of infant and child survival, and will be high when survival rates are low and low when survival rates are high. A third theory emphasizes female empowerment. Fertility will be high when women are highly subordinated to men, but as women gain more autonomy and control over their own lives they reduce their fertility levels because, among other possibilities, higher levels of fertility present them with serious burdens. We tested all three theories through multiple regression analyses performed on two samples of societies, the first a large sample of the world's nation-states during the period between 1960 and 1990, and the second a sample of now-developed societies between 1880 and 1940. Our findings showed that infant mortality was an excellent predictor of fertility, and that female empowerment was a good predictor. However, there was only weak support for the argument that the economic value of children's labor plays an important role in fertility decisions. The findings were discussed in the context of a broader interpretation of fertility behavior in societies with high levels of industrialization and modernization.     

Adolescent sexuality in Asia: new focus for population policy

As the age at marriage continues to rise in East and Southeast Asia, the fertility behavior of unmarried teenagers is receiving more attention from population policymakers. In addition to fertility reduction through family planning, Asian societies today consider population planning strategies in relation to national needs and social goals, including such matters as the population's growth rate, age structure, educational quality and skills. The number of single youth in Asia is growing much more rapidly than the total youth population. By the year 2010, for example, India is projected to have nearly 70 million single teenagers, aged 15-19, 188% more than in 1980. In many developing countries today, such as the Philippines and Korea, the rising age at marriage has combined with rapid urbanization, improved status for women, and more educational opportunity to alter both the behavioral norms of young people and the traditional means of social control over youth. Studies of contemporary adolescent sexuality have been conducted in 4 Asian countries. In the Philippines an overt independent youth homosexual culture was found to exist in urban and to some extent rural areas. In Thailand research revealed little conservative resistance to family planning or to contraceptives for young unmarried people. Surveys in Taiwan indicate that behavior related to dating and choice of spouse has become more liberal, and a survey in Hong Kong revealed a higher level of premarital sex and use of prostitutes among Chinese men than expected. Population policy perspectives that need to be considered in these changing times include: 1) issues of access to family planning services by unmarried people below the legal age of maturity; 2) the development of social institutions, such as exist in Thailand and the Philippines, to guide adolescents' behavior; 3) more extensive study of adolescent sexuality; 4) establishment of the scope of family policy.     

Sex composition of children as a determinant of marriage disruption and marriage formation: Evidence from Swedish register data

This paper investigates the effect of sex composition of children on the propensity of Swedish mothers to enter and leave marriage. Swedish population-register data are used to estimate relative risks of marriage formation and marriage dissolution for mothers with different numbers and sexes of children. The large number of observations allows us to get a very accurate picture of such relationships even if they are relatively weak. Morganet al. (1988) used survey data for the US and claimed to have found that one- and two-child parents in that country had lower divorce risks if they had sons than if they had daughters. For Sweden, we find only a minor effect in the same direction for three-child mothers. For two-child mothers, we instead find that the divorce risk is slightly reduced if a woman has one child of each sex. The divorce risk of one-child mothers is not at all affected by the sex of the child. Finally, the sex composition of children has no effect on the propensity of Swedish mothers to enter the married state.     

Breaking Up Is Hard to Count: The Rise of Divorce in the United States, 1980–2010

This article critically evaluates the available data on trends in divorce in the United States. We find that both vital statistics and retrospective survey data on divorce after 1990 underestimate recent marital instability. These flawed data have led some analysts to conclude that divorce has been stable or declining for the past three decades. Using new data from the American Community Survey and controlling for changes in the age composition of the married population, we conclude that there was actually a substantial increase in age-standardized divorce rates between 1990 and 2008. Divorce rates have doubled over the past two decades among persons over age 35. Among the youngest couples, however, divorce rates are stable or declining. If current trends continue, overall age-standardized divorce rates could level off or even decline over the next few decades. We argue that the leveling of divorce among persons born since 1980 probably reflects the increasing selectivity of marriage.     

Domestic Outsourcing in an Ultra-Low Fertility Context: Employing Live-in Domestic Help and Fertility in Hong Kong

The fertility rate in Hong Kong has been very low for decades. Because work–family conflict is one of the major barriers for married couples in actualizing their fertility ideals, domestic outsourcing that relieves women from the burden of domestic labor may help reduce the gap between ideal and actual fertility. Hiring live-in domestic helpers, who co-reside with the hiring families and work on a full-time basis, is gaining popularity in Hong Kong. However, past studies neither inside nor outside of East Asia have examined how employing live-in helpers affects fertility. This study investigates the relationship between live-in helpers and fertility by analyzing retrospective event-history data we collected from a representative survey of married couples in Hong Kong (n?=?1697). Our results show that married couples employing live-in helpers tend to have more children than couples not employing live-in helpers. Specifically, the practice is associated with higher odds of first childbirth and of second childbirth, with no evidence of a positive effect beyond bearing a second child. The findings have implications for other East Asian societies, which share similar backgrounds of ultra-low fertility rates, rising female labor force participation rates, rigid gender inequalities in domestic labor, and demanding work cultures.

     

Correlates of divorce in the U.S.S.R.

The theoretical rationale of this study is that conditions associated with divorce reside outside the family within a broader social system where the family finds itself located. The absence of major differences in divorce law from one place to another within the Soviet Union makes it possible to explore this hypothesis by examining areal differentials in divorce rates. Crude divorce rates and crude marriage rates for 1960 have been published in Vestnik Statistiki for 109 political-administrative areas in the Soviet Union. Several indicators of modernization are available for the same areas from the 1959 U.S.S.R. Census of Population. About 80 per cent of the variation among areas with respect to the crude divorce rate is accounted for by six variables: the crude marriage rate, the percentage of urban population, and the employee-worker ratio in the labor force, each of which is positively associated with the divorce rate; and the proportion of poorly educated women, the ratio of children to adult males, and the mean household-family size, each of which is negatively associated with the divorce rate.     

The incidence of divorce within cohorts of American marriages contracted since the civil war

The proportion of marriages that end in divorce can be estimated from vital registration or from census data. The former source suggests considerably higher levels of divorce than does the latter. A new series, combining the two sources, is presented for annual marriage cohorts back to 1867. Actual experience to 1970 is traced and a projection beyond that point is made for cohorts with incomplete divorce histories. The cohort divorce series moves steadily upwards and shows much less variability than an equivalent series of period divorce rates. Factors related to high divorce within a cohort are armed service mobilization and high unemployment rates in the year of marriage, and slow national economic growth between pre- and post-marital periods.     

Marriage and divorce in twentieth century American cohorts

Marital status life tables have provided a basis for describing the marriage, divorce, and mortality experience of U.S. cohorts born 1888-1950. In brief, marriage occurred earlier and became more universal from the earliest cohorts to those of the late 1930s. More recent cohorts show declines in the proportion ever marrying and increases in the mean age at marriage. Period data for 1980 and cumulative cohort data by age suggest the likelihood of a continuing retreat from first marriage. Divorce has been rising steadily, with the latest cohorts indicating that 46 percent of male marriages and 42 percent of female marriages will end in divorce. Period data for males in 1980 raise the possibility that levels of divorce may have reached a peak, but cumulative cohort data by age show no such pattern. The present results are consistent with the view that a fundamental change in the traditional concept of marriage is underway. Traditional marriage involved the husband providing the wife with economic support and protection in return for her companionship and maternal services. Strong social pressures urged men and women to marry, and made the coveted services married persons provided each other difficult to obtain elsewhere. Recent economic changes have undermined the social and economic forces that maintained the institution of marriage. The U.S. economy has grown to include a large service sector in its labor force, and that growth has produced a dramatic increase in female labor force opportunities (Oppenheimer, 1970). The resultant large scale participation of women in economic activity blurs the traditional division of labor by sex, and goes to the very heart of the traditional marriage "bargain." At the same time, economic changes have weakened family ties by encouraging lower fertility, stressing achieved as opposed to ascribed characteristics, and fostering geographical mobility (Goode, 1970). The "marital union" of the past may be giving way to the "marital partnership" of the future, which will accommodate informal as well as formal marriages, less dependence between spouses, greater egalitarianism, lower fertility, and higher levels of divorce.     

Consequences of family disruption on children’s educational outcomes in norway

Using high-quality data from Norwegian population registers, we examine the relationship between family disruption and children’s educational outcomes. We distinguish between disruptions caused by parental divorce and paternal death and, using a simultaneous equation model, pay particular attention to selection bias in the effect of divorce. We also allow for the possibility that disruption may have different effects at different stages of a child’s educational career. Our results suggest that selection on time-invariant maternal characteristics is important and works to overstate the effects of divorce on a child’s chances of continuing in education. Nevertheless, the experience of marital breakdown during childhood is associated with lower levels of education, and the effect weakens with the child’s age at disruption. The effects of divorce are most pronounced for the transitions during or just beyond the high school level. In models that do not allow for selection, children who experienced a father’s death appear less disadvantaged than children whose parents divorced. After we control for selection, however, differences in the educational qualifications of children from divorced and bereaved families narrow substantially and, at mean ages of divorce, are almost non-existent.     

Choosing a contraceptive method: why does it matter?

The use of contraceptives varies widely among Asian countries. Based on the most recent survey data available, the rate varies from nearly 8/10 married women aged 15-44 in Taiwan to fewer than 1/10 in Pakistan and Nepal. Women in East Asian countries are most likely to practice contraception, followed by those in Southeast Asia, with lower contraceptive prevalence rates found in South Asia. The rates of some East Asian nations now match those of the US and other developed nations, while in most South Asian nations contraception is spreading slowly. Contraceptive methods in use vary widely by country. The leading method in the greatest number of countries is sterilization, but in most countries several methods are nearly equal in popularity. Only in India is sterilization used by a majority of those people who practice contraception. Japan is the only country in which a majority of contraceptors use condoms, and only in China do 1/2 use IUDs. The choice of a particular contraceptive method is strongly influenced by 1) methods available through family planning programs, or promoted through the use of target systems; 2) religous and cultural factors; 3) concerns about side effects and safety; 4) ease of access to particular methods; 5) the medical profession; and 6) legality--in Japan the pill is illegal. In most countries the type of contraceptive that people prefer has changed since the introduction and promotion of modern methods of contraception. In general, there has been a shift to more effective methods. An increase in female sterilization at the expense of other methods such as the IUD or pill is the most common pattern. In countries where female sterilization is unpopular, use of such modern methods as the pill, IUD, or condom has increased at the expense of traditional methods.     

Subjective Well-Being, Societal Condition and Social Policy – The Case Study of a Rich Chinese Society

The article looks at whether or not social policy and other societal-condition variables contribute to the subjective well-being of life satisfaction. It firstly argues that social policy needs to pay more attention to the study of subjective well-being. Then, it reviews the literature and finds that people in rich societies generally have higher levels of life satisfaction. But the findings of a social survey on the level of and variance in life satisfaction in a rich Chinese society reveal the contrary. The empirical data reflects a life satisfaction pattern along strong income and class lines. It also confirms that social policy and other societal-condition variables have different degrees of impact on life satisfaction. At last, implications of the findings for social policy are discussed.     

Testing Evolutionary Hypotheses with Demographic Data

An ecological evolutionary viewpoint offers new perspectives on contemporary demographic problems in general and on population–environment issues in particular. In turn, rich and detailed human demographic data can help solve problems of interest in evolutionary theory. Such data have been analyzed in greatest detail in studies of traditional and historical societies. Evolutionary approaches using historical data go beyond small‐sample anthropological studies to the application of the evolutionary approach to large datasets, and illuminate important similarities between small‐scale traditional societies and large modern populations living in evolutionarily novel environments. This article provides a concise update of the breadth of questions and hypotheses of likely interest to demographers and others that evolutionary theorists address using a variety of traditional and historical datasets. It suggests opportunities for additional collaborative work between evolutionary theorists and historical demographers and highlights topics relevant to modern demography.     

Second Births and the Second Shift: A Research Note on Gender Equity and Fertility

In a set of propositions on fertility transition, Peter McDonald recently proposed that the decline from replacement‐level fertility to low fertility is associated with a combination of high levels of gender equity in individual‐oriented institutions, such as education and market employment, and low levels of gender equity in the family and family‐oriented institutions. Similarly, the “second shift,” or the share of domestic work performed by formally employed women, forms a critical piece of current cross‐national explanations for low fertility. Building on this scholarship, the authors explore whether there is empirical evidence at the individual level for a relationship between gender equity at home, as indicated by the division of housework among working couples with one child, and the transition to a second birth. Results, based on a sample of US couples, indicate a U‐shaped relationship between gender equity and fertility. Both the most modern and the most traditional housework arrangements are positively associated with fertility. This empirical test elaborates the family‐fertility relationship and underscores the need to incorporate family context, including gender equity, into explanations for fertility change.