Bayes designs for multiple linear regression on the unit sphere

We deal with experimental designs minimizing the mean square error of the linear BAYES estimator for the parameter vector of a multiple linear regression model where the experimental region is the k-dimensional unit sphere. After computing the uniquely determined optimum information matrix, we construct, separately for the homogeneous and the inhomogeneous model, both approximate and exact designs having such an information matrix.     

Orientation relationship in finite dimensional space

In the present article, we discuss the regression of a point on the surface of a unit sphere in d dimensions given a point on the surface of a unit sphere in p dimensions, where p may not be equal to d. Point projection is added to the rotation and linear transformation for regression link function. The identifiability of the model is proved. Then, parameter estimation in this set up is discussed. Simulation studies and data analyses are done to illustrate the model.     

Cross-over Designs in the Presence of Higher Order Carry-overs

In cross-over experiments, where different treatments are applied successively to the same experimental unit over a number of time periods, it is often expected that a treatment has a carry-over effect in one or more periods following its period of application. The effect of interaction between the treatments in the successive periods may also affect the response. However, it seems that all systematic studies of the optimality properties of cross-over designs have been done under models where carry-over effects are assumed to persist for only one subsequent period. This paper proposes a model which allows for the possible presence of carry-over effects up to k subsequent periods, together with all the interactions between treatments applied at k + 1 successive periods. This model allows the practitioner to choose k for any experiment according to the requirements of that particular experiment. Under this model, the cross-over designs are studied and the class of optimal designs is obtained. A method of constructing these optimal designs is also given.     

Some linear model techniques for analyzing small-circle spherical data

The author investigates least squares as a method for fitting small-circle models to a sample of unit vectors in R³. He highlights a local linear model underlying the estimation of the parameters of a circle. This model is used to construct an estimation algorithm and regression-type inference procedures for the parameters of a circle. It makes it possible to compare the fit of a small circle with that of a spherical ellipse. The limitations of the least-squares approach are emphasized: when the errors are bounded away from 0, the least-squares estimators are not consistent as the sample size goes to infinity. Two examples, concerned with the migration of elephant seals and with the classification of geological folds, are analyzed using the linear model techniques proposed in this work.     

Adjusting for bias in randomized cluster trials

The randomized cluster design is typical in studies where the unit of randomization is a cluster of individuals rather than the individual. Evaluating various intervention strategies across medical care providers at either an institutional level or at a physician group practice level fits the randomized cluster model. Clearly, the analytical approach to such studies must take the unit of randomization and accompanying intraclass correlation into consideration. We review alternative methods to the typical Pearson's chi-square analysis and illustrate these alternatives. We have written and tested a Fortran program that produces the statistics outlined in this paper. The program, in an executable format is available from the author on request.     

NEIGHBOUR ANALYSIS WITH ADJUSTMENT FOR INTERPLOT COMPETITION

In field experiments involving a large number of experimental plots, a neighbour analysis can be used to control environmental variation by estimating the trend within blocks. The effect of interplot competition is another important source of variation which has an influence on the estimation of treatment contrasts. To reduce the effect of the variation from these sources and to improve the precision of comparison between treatments, a spatial model is proposed for incorporating both trend effect and interplot competition. It is a modification to the residual maximum likelihood neighbour analysis of Gleeson & Cullis (1987) using the two neighbouring treatment effects to estimate interplot competition. A real example is used to illustrate this methodology. The results indicate that the extended model gives no appreciable difference in standard error of mean differences compared with the model taking into account the trend effect only. However, the rankings of estimated treatment means do differ. More research using both real and simulated data is required before such models that incorporate trend and competition effects can be confidently recommended.     

Objective Bayesian analysis of spatial data with measurement error

The author shows how geostatistical data that contain measurement errors can be analyzed objectively by a Bayesian approach using Gaussian random fields. He proposes a reference prior and two versions of Jeffreys' prior for the model parameters. He studies the propriety and the existence of moments for the resulting posteriors. He also establishes the existence of the mean and variance of the predictive distributions based on these default priors. His reference prior derives from a representation of the integrated likelihood that is particularly convenient for computation and analysis. He further shows that these default priors are not very sensitive to some aspects of the design and model, and that they have good frequentist properties. Finally, he uses a data set of carbon/nitrogen ratios from an agricultural field to illustrate his approach.     

On consistent testing for serial correlation in seasonal time series models

The author considers serial correlation testing in seasonal time series models. He proposes a test statistic based on a spectral approach. Many tests of this type rely on kernel-based spectral density estimators that assign larger weights to low order lags than to high ones. Under seasonality, however, large autocorrelations may occur at seasonal lags that classical kernel estimators cannot take into account. The author thus proposes a test statistic that relies on the spectral density estimator of Shin (2004), whose weighting scheme is more adapted to this context. The distribution of his test statistic is derived under the null hypothesis and he studies its behaviour under fixed and local alternatives. He establishes the consistency of the test under a general fixed alternative. He also makes recommendations for the choice of the smoothing parameters. His simulation results suggest that his test is more powerful against seasonality than alternative procedures based on classical weighting schemes. He illustrates his procedure with monthly statistics on employment among young Americans.     

On the efficiency of some non-orthogonal split-plot×split-block designs with control treatments

Many split-plot×split-block (SPSB) type experiments used in agriculture, biochemistry or plant protection are designed to study new crop plant cultivars or chemical agents. In these experiments it is usually very important to compare test treatments with the so-called control treatments. It happens yet that experimental material is limited and it does not allow using a complete (orthogonal) SPSB design. In the paper we propose a non-orthogonal SPSB design for consideration. Two cases of the design are presented here, i.e. when its incompleteness is connected with a crossed treatment structure only or with a nested treatment structure only. It is assumed the factors' levels connected with the incompleteness of the design are split into two groups: a set of test treatments and a set of control treatments. The method of constructions involves applying augmented block designs for some factors' levels. In a modelling data obtained from such experiments the structure of experimental material and appropriate randomization scheme of the different kinds of units before they enter the experiment are taken into account. With respect to the analysis of the obtained randomization model the approach typical to the multistratum experiments with orthogonal block structure is adapted. The proposed statistical analysis of linear model obtained includes estimation of parameters, testing general and particular hypotheses defined by the (basic) treatment contrasts with special reference to the notion of general balance.     

Perturbation analysis for an orthogonal least-squares estimator

Coordinate measuring machines (CMMs) are used to check the geometric integrity of component parts. The geometric constraints to which a part must conform, as defined e.g., by The American National Standards Institute, assume the use of some type of gauging system when inspecting the part. Statistical issues arise in interpretting CMM data in the inspection of part tolerances. We consider a set of n planar regions on the surface of a part. The unit vector normal to each plane is estimated by orthogonal least squares. The small-sample density of this estimator (on the unit sphere S²) is determined asymptotically as the variance of the CMM error approaches 0. To a first-degree approximation, this density is Fisher-von Mises. Diagnostics are reviewed to test the geometric constraint that the n planar regions are oriented correctly with respect to one another, and to test the flatness of planar regions.     

Exact joint forecast regions for vector autoregressive models

Assume that a k-element vector time series follows a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Obtaining simultaneous forecasts of the k elements of the vector time series is an important problem. Based on the Bonferroni inequality, Lutkepohl (1991) derived the procedures which construct the conservative joint forecast regions for the VAR model. In this paper, we propose to use an exact method which provides shorter prediction intervals than does the Bonferroni method. Three illustrative examples are given for comparison of the various VAR forecasting procedures.     

Extrapolation designs with constraints

The author considers (asymptotically) minimax extrapolation designs for an approximately multiple linear model with the model contaminant f being restricted only by its L₂ norm. He splits the integrated mean squared prediction error (IMSPE) of the fitted value over the extrapolation space into two parts, namely the integrated prediction variance (IPV) and the integrated prediction bias (IPB). For a spherical design space and an annular extrapolation space, he constructs the design that minimizes the maximum value, over f, of IPB subject to bounding IPV. He also constructs the design that minimizes IPV subject to bounding the maximum IPB.     

An affine‐invariant multivariate sign test for cluster correlated data

The author presents a multivariate location model for cluster correlated observations. He proposes an affine‐invariant multivariate sign statistic for testing the value of the location parameter. His statistic is an adaptation of that proposed by Randles (2000). The author shows, under very mild conditions, that his test statistic is asymptotically distributed as a chi‐squared random variable under the null hypothesis. In particular, the test can be used for skewed populations. In the context of a general multivariate normal model, the author obtains values of his test's Pitman asymptotic efficiency relative to another test based on the overall average. He shows that there is an improvement in the relative performance of the new test as soon as intra‐cluster correlation is present Even in the univariate case, the new test can be very competitive for Gaussian data. Furthermore, the statistic is easy to compute, even for large dimensional data. The author shows through simulations that his test performs well compared to the average‐based test. He illustrates its use with real data.     

Longitudinal shape analysis by using the spherical coordinates

One of the important topics in morphometry that received high attention recently is the longitudinal analysis of shape variation. According to Kendall's definition of shape, the shape of object appertains on non-Euclidean space, making the longitudinal study of configuration somehow difficult. However, to simplify this task, triangulation of the objects and then constructing a non-parametric regression-type model on the unit sphere is pursued in this paper. The prediction of the configurations in some time instances is done using both properties of triangulation and the size of great baselines. Moreover, minimizing a Euclidean risk function is proposed to select feasible weights in constructing smoother functions in a non-parametric smoothing manner. These will provide some proper shape growth models to analysis objects varying in time. The proposed models are applied to analysis of two real-life data sets.     

An approximation to the poly-t distribution

This investigation examines an approximation to the poly-t distribution, which often occurs in the Bayesian analysis of a linear model. The approximation allows one to compute the mean vector and dispersion matrix of any k/0 multivariate poly-t distribution in such a way that only univariate and bivariate numerical integrations are required. A numerical study depicts the advantages and disadvantages of the approximation.     

Large sample theory of the Langevin distribution

The Langevin (or von Mises-Fisher) distribution of random vector x on the unit sphere ω_q in $\text{R}$^q has a density proportional to exp κμ'x where μ'x is the scalar product of x with the unit modal vector μ and κ?0 is a concentration parameter. This paper studies estimation and tests for a wide variety of situations when the sample sizes are large. Geometrically simple test statistics are given for many sample problems even when the populations may have unequal concentration parameters.     

Minimization of the probabilistic p-frame potential

We investigate the optimal configurations of n points on the unit sphere for a class of potential functions. In particular, we characterize these optimal configurations in terms of their approximation properties within frame theory. Furthermore, we consider similar optimal configurations in terms of random distributions of points on the sphere. In this probabilistic setting, we characterize these optimal distributions by means of special classes of probabilistic frames. Our work also indicates some connections between statistical shape analysis and frame theory.     

Orthogonally Blocked Mixture Experiments in Ellipsoidal Restricted Regions

In practical situations involving mixtures formed from several ingredients, interest is sometimes centered on the response in an ellipsoidal neighborhood around a standard formulation. We show that standard, orthogonally blocked, response surface designs, defined on a q ? 1 dimensional unit sphere, may be transformed into similarly orthogonally blocked q-ingredient mixture designs defined within an ellipsoid centered at the standard formulation. The method is illustrated using several examples of mixture experiments with three, four, and five ingredients, arranged in two, three, or four orthogonal blocks, obtained by projecting standard central composite designs and Box–Behnken designs into the ellipsoidal mixture region. Rotations of the resulting designs within the ellipsoidal regions are also considered.     

The Langevin distribution on high dimensional spheres

The Langevin (or von-Mises) distribution L(μ,k,q) of a unit vector in Rq has been well studied for the cases of large samples (n? 8) and high concentrations (K? 8). Here we study it as q? 8. Interesting results are only obtained when we use L(μ,q^½,q).     

Study of redundancy of vector variables in canonical correlations

Fujikoshi (1982) obtained the necessary and sufficient conditions for the increased number of variables in the two sets of vectors not affecting the original nonzero canonical correlations and used these to obtain the likelihood ratio test procedure. He assumed a nonsingular covariance matrix due to random variables. Here, we study the same problem when the covariance matrix is singular and establish some further results. In this study, we note that the unit canonical correlations have to be separated in some of the situations. These results are valid for complex random vector variables and in some situations, the test for redundancy is given for complex random variables.