Uncertain Aims and Tacit Negotiation: Birth Control Practices in Britain, 1925–50

Evidence from oral history interviews is used to suggest the need to reevaluate our understanding of the dynamics of fertility decisions and behavior in the first half of the twentieth century. Those interviewed stressed their vague and haphazard approach to contraceptive use, in sharp contrast to the dominant depiction in studies of fertility decline that emphasize the degree to which individuals made deliberate and calculated choices about family size based on an assessment of the costs and benefits of childrearing. Details of individual contraceptive strategies elucidate the complexities of birth control behavior: couples, lacking explicit aims for family limitation, adopted diverse methods of birth control, using them for different reasons, at different times, with varying degrees of determination and confidence and frequently with very little direct discussion or planning. Explicit articulation of aims was not a necessary prerequisite of the spread of birth control; accepted gender roles meant that responsibilities and obligations emerged gradually and tacitly. As a result, nevertheless, low fertility was effectively achieved.     

我国实际低生育水平的影响因素分析——邦戈茨低生育率模型应用

本文使用2010年江苏省六县市"生育意愿与生育行为研究"跟踪调查数据,应用邦戈茨低生育率模型,对已基本完成生育周期且可生育二孩妇女的实际生育水平的影响因素进行了分析。在以意愿生育水平为参照的条件下,研究发现,初育年龄推迟、教育水平提高,工作压力等都对妇女的实际生育水平产生了显著的抑制作用。     

重新认识中国人口出生性别比失调与低生育水平的代价问题

迄今为止,一些涉及中国人口出生性别比问题的国内外相关文献,几乎都存在着涉及基本概念与理论方面的这样或那样问题。文章针对这些问题,不仅对出生性别比的基本概念、数理检测方法等做了进一步阐述与再认识,而且对出生性别比失调与近一个时期失调的初始时间做了界定。同时,对异常出生性别比的现状、变动态势进行了重新估计。指出在人为条件下的出生性别比失调,是导致20世纪80年代中后期以来生育水平下降的一个重要因素。     

CDC on Vaccines and Children's Health: United States 1900–98

During the twentieth century, the health and life expectancy of persons residing in the United States—as in most other countries of the globe—have improved greatly. (For a discussion of some aspects of that improvement, see the article in this issue by Kevin White assessing the effects of changes in cardiovascular and tuberculosis mortality in the United States since 1900.) A considerable share of this change is attributable to advances in public health. To highlight these advances the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (an agency of the US Department of Health and Human Services) is issuing a series of reports profiling ten great public health achievements in the United States during the present century. The first of these reports discusses vaccination: “Impact of vaccines universally recommended for children—United States, 1900–1998,” MMWR 48 (12), 2 April 1999. It is reproduced below in full. The improvements chronicled in the report are especially great with respect to morbidity. In many developing countries mortality resulting from vaccine-preventable causes is, however, still very high. Recent international initiatives, involving UN agencies, bilateral aid agencies, foundations, and the vaccine industry, aim at accelerating the outreach of immunization in developing countries. A meeting discussing an expanded program of vaccination (Bellagio, March 1999) estimated that global immunization, at a cost of approximately $3 billion per year, could save some 40 million lives over the next ten years.     

关注大城市低生育水平下的出生人口波动

根据上海户籍人口变动趋势的预测数据 ,具体分析出生人口波动引起的未来年出生人数“大起大落”的状况及其对产科床位、托儿所、幼儿园、小学、初中、高中乃至大学发展所带来的重大负面影响。建议各地计生部门应在稳定低生育水平的同时 ,密切关注未来大城市户籍人口出生数的波动态势 ,加强未来出生人口波动的预测和预报 ,对现行生育政策作些“微调” ,因地制宜地搞好未来出生人口“削峰补谷”的宏观调控 ,引导年轻育龄夫妇通过适当提前或推迟生育 ,减缓未来城市户籍出生人数的波动。     

The Effect on Fertility of the 2003–2011 War in Iraq

This article provides the first detailed account of recent fertility trends in Iraq, with a particular focus on the changes resulting from the 2003–2011 war and the factors underlying them. The study is based on retrospective birth history data from the 2006 and 2011 Iraq Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (I‐MICS). Estimates from the two surveys indicate that total fertility remained stable from 1997 to 2010, at about 4.5 children per woman. However, examination of the age patterns of fertility reveals an abrupt shift in the timing of births, with adolescent fertility rising by over 30 percent soon after the onset of the war. A decomposition analysis shows that the rise in early childbearing is due to an increased prevalence of early marriage among less‐educated women. The prevalence of early marriage and childbearing among women with secondary or higher education is relatively low and has not increased after 2003.     

生育理性和生育决策与我国低生育水平稳定机制的转变

自改革开放以来 ,我国人口生育率水平出现了迅速的转变 ,特别是 1 992年我国确立了市场经济为目标的经济改革以来 ,生育率水平更是进一步降低到更替水平以下。如果说 ,生育率的迅速转变是在国家计划生育政策干预下启动的 ,那么 ,在 1 990年代生育率的下降应该主要是社会和经济发展的结果。以市场经济为导向的经济改革和经济的迅速发展 ,已经为稳定我国城市地区人口低生育率水平提供了必要的经济条件 ,同时 ,制度、技术和文化等因素的变革已经为我国个人生育决策理性化创造了条件 ,低生育水平的稳定机制已经开始从政策控制为主转向群众自我控制为主的转变     

Low Fertility Trap:Theories,Facts and Implications

The low Fertility Trap Hypothesis proposes that there are three self-reinforcing mechanism--demographic,sociological and economic,working towards a downward spiral in future fertility.Once TFR drops below 1.5,it will be difficult to recover.The fertility recovery emerging in many countries across the world has changed the lowfertility trap theory and also the justification of the theory itself.So low-fertility trap is more likely a pattern summarized from a short-time phenomenon than a generalized social law.As with China,the current fertility level is above 1.5 births per woman,and China is not in the "Low-fertility trap".Moreover,most recent surveys suggests that current fertility intention in China is above 1.8 births per woman and more than60 percent of people would have a second child if there is an adjustment of fertility policy.In addition,birth postponement is still playing an important role in reducing TFR in China.Thus,with the high fertility intention,adjustment of family planning policy and decreasing tempo effect,TFR in China will experience upturn but not further decline in the near future.It is lack of evidence to conclude that China has already been or is going to be trapped in low fertility.     

Communique of the National Sample Survey of Fertility and Birth Control (abstract)

The State Family Planning Commission in China surveyed 2,151,212 people, including 459,269 married women aged 15-57 on fertility and birth control, in July, 1988 from 30 provinces and other regions. From 1980- 87 the average total fertility rate was 2.47 vs. 4.01 in the 1970s. Fertility rates in the 80s were 1.33 for cities, 2.43 for towns, and 2.84 for villages. 1st parity births rose from 44.15% to 52.55% from Jan. to July of 1988 and 2nd parity births were about 30%. Women aged 50-57 had an average of 5.27 children while women aged 45-59 had an average of 4.44 children. 71.21% of childbearing-age women use contraception: 10.99% use male sterilization, 38.24% use female sterilization, 41.48% use IUDs, 4.91% oral pills, 2.65% condoms, 0.42% external contraceptives, and 1.32% use other methods. 13.79% of the married, childbearing-age couples have one-child certificates. The population of China as of April 1989 was 1.1 billion. In 1988 the birth rate was 20.78/1000 and the death rate was 6.58/1000.     

Fertility,gender preference,the Birth Planning Policy and life satisfaction in China

Using data from China Family Panel Studies 2010, we evaluate the role of the Birth Planning Policy (BPP) in altering decisions to have another child by birth parity, and the relationship of life satisfaction with the gender structure of the children of Chinese residents. We find strong positive effects of the BPP on the decision of having an additional child for Chinese residents, particularly if the previous children were girls. In spite of strong son preference in fertility behaviour, residents whose children are all daughters are found to be more satisfied with their lives than with other gender structures. The empirical findings support the view that daughters are more helpful in providing assistance to parents and in mitigating family conflicts hence increasing life satisfaction, while son preferences may be pursued reasons of lineage and hence do not result in more satisfied lives. We also find evidence that the BPP penalty might be a reason why having more sons could reduce life satisfaction.     

生育政策调整对生育意愿影响研究——基于2015年追踪调查数据的发现

文章利用2015年生育意愿追踪调查数据,分析"单独两孩"政策出台后我国居民的生育意愿变化情况,单独一孩家庭打算生育二孩的比例为39.5%,普通一孩家庭为32.2%,较以前有所下降.前续调查对于是否生育二孩表示"说不好"的人群中,追踪调查显示大约60%倾向于不打算生育,政策目标人群由"打算生"到"不打算生"是生育意愿转变的主要趋势,经济压力大是影响生育二孩的首要原因,政策敏感人群所占比重在地区间存在差异,政策落地对优生筛查、孕产服务、幼教等方面提出更高要求,需要做好各项公共政策衔接,确保实施效果.     

Demography,Culture, and Policy: Understanding Japan's Low Fertility

Insights into the causes of Japan's prolonged and sharp fall in total fertility rate come from comparing Japan with France. The two countries share dirigiste administrative approaches, family policy reform undertaken under the auspices of pragmatic right wing parties and justified on pronatalist grounds, and involvement of demographic experts in crafting and shepherding such policies. But the countries differ with respect to their total fertility rates (France 1.98, Japan 1.29) and the effectiveness of their family policies. Thus comparing them can help identify areas of divergence that might explain these differences and assist in the project of theory building. Several salient explanations are rooted in Japan's labor market: it exacts high opportunity costs from parents who interrupt their careers to raise children, keeps ideal workers from having much time for their families, assumes and reinforces a traditional gender ideology, and hires few young workers into good jobs.     

人口、文化与政策：解读日本的低生育率

通过对日法两国生育状况进行对比（法国1．98,日本1．29）,挖掘日本总和生育率急剧下降的原因。两国都采取了政府干预的行政手段以及在实用主义的右翼政党支持下进行家庭政策改革,以期提高人口出生率,但是两国家庭政策的作用效果却不尽相同。一种可能的解释是植根于日本劳动力市场的文化：它使得年轻夫妇若中断他们的职业生涯来抚养孩子需要付出高额的机会成本：使得理想的雇员无法拥有太多的时间来安排家庭生活：同时假设并强化了一种传统的社会性别意识,将女性推向非正规劳动力就业市场,迫使她们只能在“正规工作”与“生养孩子”之间做出取舍。这也是越来越多的日本年轻人宁可选择单身并推迟结婚,也不愿轻易结婚生子的重要原因。