Assessing the Need for a New Medical School: A Case Study in Applied Demography

This case study illustrates how applied demographers operate in a politically charged context of competing interests—here, justifying the decision to locate a new public medical school in one medically underserved region rather than another. We show how to use demographic and other data to gauge the magnitude of future demand for physicians; formulate demographic assumptions about the future to serve decisionmakers’ needs; and frame information to help improve decision making through objective analysis. We detail the steps in projecting future physicians per capita using a method based on the economic concept of physician demand rather than the social concept of need. Our method is computationally simple, intuitive, and easily understood by policymakers. Our case study offers applied demographers a practical approach to physician workforce planning and can be used as an instructional exercise for students, assigned to replicate these projections elsewhere and distill their implications.     

Demography as a Spatial Social Science

Scholars in many social science disciplines have taken note of the re-emerging interest in issues concerning social processes embedded within a spatial context. While some argue that this awakening is refreshing and new and, in fact, long overdue, I demonstrate that spatially focused demographic theories and research agendas clearly predate contemporary interest in these topics. I assert that recent methodological advancements have merely encouraged and brought refinement to the expanding body of spatially oriented population research—research strongly rooted in demographic tradition and practice. Indeed, I make the claim that, until roughly the mid-20th century, virtually all demography in the United States (and elsewhere, but not specifically examined here) was spatial demography. Then, shortly after mid-century, a paradigm shift occurred, and the scientific study of population quickly came to be dominated by attention to the individual as the agent of demographic action. Traditional spatial demography—macro-demography—gave way to micro-demography, and, I argue, most demographers simply abandoned the data and approach of spatial demography. In closing the paper I include a brief discussion of the recent awakening that has come to spatial demographers from developments in other disciplines, principally geography, regional science, and spatial econometrics.     

The Media Marketplace for Garbled Demography

Differences in cultural norms and incentives provide a powerful marketplace for garbled demography in the mass media. Journalists are attracted to expectation of dramatic shifts in politically and socially controversial domains that can result from long‐term population projections. Demographers routinely caution against interpreting such projections as forecasts, and emphasize the complexities and uncertainties of demographic analyses. Yet such caveats are often lost in the sequence of translations from demographic study, to press release, to journalistic treatment. In addition, advocacy groups often interpret such stories to serve their own interests, while headlines and article titles designed for general readerships are another source of miscommunication about demographic studies. Two recent cases offer object lessons of how careful demographic analyses addressing politically controversial trends can suffer from such confusions: media coverage of the 1997 National Research Council report entitled The New Americans, and the 2000 report by the United Nations Population Division entitled Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations? The essay suggests procedural changes that might moderate the level of garbled reporting and commentary that commonly characterize coverage of such studies in the mass media.     

The Ergodic Theorems of Demography: a Simple Proof

Standard proofs of the ergodic theorems of demography rely on theorems borrowed from positive matrix theory, tauberian theory, and the theory of time-inhomogeneous Markov matrices. These proofs are efficient and expedient, but they give little direct insight into the mechanism that causes ergodicity. This paper proposes a simple and unified proof of the two ergodic theorems. It is shown that the birth dynamics can be decomposed into a smoothing process that progressively levels out past fluctuations in the birth sequence and a reshaping process that accounts for current period-to-period changes in vital rates. The smoothing process, which causes the birth sequence to lose information on its past shape, is shown to be the ergodic mechanism behind both theorems.     

Thirty Years of Demography

In this paper, we present a content analysis of Demography, the official journal of the Population Association of America. Our results reflect patterns of change and stability in a number of areas, including: subjects covered, number of authors, gender of authors, type of data used, source of data used, affiliation of authors and statistical procedures employed. The data suggest that the field of population research has become increasingly bureaucratized and complex, while at the same time continuing to focus on familiar research subjects. A relatively small number of population research centers contribute disproportionately to the journal.     

国防人口学构建的若干问题初探

国防人口学是一门研究人口与国防关系的新兴科学。人口作为经济社会活动的主体,同国防建设的关系越来越密切,人口的自然状况、社会状况乃至国家的各项人口政策以及人力资源开发政策都直接或间接地影响或制约着国防建设。国防人口学就是适应国防建设的这一客观需要而创立的。但是,作为一门新兴学科,有许多基本问题需要搞清楚。本期我们选登丁学洲、赵志昌的文章,拟就国防人口学的研究对象、理论框架、价值意义、研究现状以及发展前景等问题进行一些探讨和概括,希望能引起更多的关注,加快这一学科的发展。     

西部大开发的人口因素分析

人在我国的西部大开发中占有十分重要的地位 ,在强调对物进行开发的同时 ,不能忽视人这个生产力中最活跃的因素 ,人是加快西部开发最重要的条件之一。西部大开发要从输血型向造血型转变 ,西部发展必须十分重视对人的开发。     

人口学是一门具有广泛应用价值的很有发展前途的科学

人口学的社会认知形象不清或偏狭 ,对人口学的地位、作用和学科发展造成了不利的影响 ,也是造成我国目前人口学研究萎缩的重要原因之一。人口学是一门很年轻的、在我国还远远没有被开发的很有发展前途的科学。应以市场经济为背景 ,从深化人口学的学科研究、专业人才培养和应用开发三个方面来解决当前人口科学发展问题。     

Toward a theory of restraint

Consumption largely remains a black box in the population, environment, and global change debates. The dominant perspective takes insatiability as axiomatic and assumes that reduced consumption will only happen through scarcity or the impositions of external authority. Yet humans often exhibit resource limiting behavior that is not the result of external controls nor is it altruistic or aberrant. This article develops the concept ofrestraint as an evolutionarily and culturally significant behavior, yet one that in modern times has been relegated to a regressive, if not trivial, status. The article defines restraint, hypothesizes its historical and evolutionary roots, lays out the conditions under which it can occur, and develops a theoretical parallel to cooperation in international relations theory.     

研究与人口变量有关的健康问题是新世纪深化人口研究的必然趋势

许多人口现象如生育、死亡、寿命、年龄、性别等都是以人口的生物属性为自然基础的。因此人口变量必然与健康问题密切相关。伴随社会进步与社会实践的深入 ,人们对人口变量的认识也正不断深化与拓展。人口科学必须要研究与人口变量有关的健康问题 ,才能透视人口现象的来拢去脉、前因后果 ,才能摸清和掌握人口变化的规律。因此 ,通过多学科的相互合作与互相渗透 ,研究与人口变量有关的健康问题是新世纪深化人口研究的必然趋势 ,也是2 1世纪人口科学研究的亮点之一     

Geographic Information Systems and Spatial Data Processing in Demography: a Review

This paper reviews the use of geographic information systems (GIS) software for spatial data processing in demography. The review begins with an introduction to GIS. Next, it traces the three major types of spatial data problems confronting demographers: the geocoding and geoprocessing of microdata, estimation of detailed population surfaces, and combining data aggregated to incompatible zone systems. GIS and non-GIS solutions to these problems are contrasted, with examples from published research. Spatially pre-processed datasets available to demographers are then discussed. The author concludes by noting that the solutions GIS provides to previously intractable data problems in spatial demography might encourage a focus on dynamic processes of population change in local areas.     

Toward a gender politics of aging

The article proposes a Gender Politics of Aging approach to the study of aging societies. The approach recognizes the feminization of old age, ageism’s roots in sexist discourse, and the need to recognize the role of politics in driving demographic debates. Drawing together arguments from feminist gerontology and political demography, the article argues that the intersection of politics and gender must be considered if appropriate responses to an older, feminized demography are to be produced. I conclude that the work of aging feminists provides a rich vein of research and praxis from which a gender politics of aging approach can draw.     

Toward a national population policy

Canada has notexplicit national population policy although various policies do have an effect on the size, rate of growth, distribution, and composition of the nation's population. Traditionally, Canada has been pronoatalist, particularly favoring immigration. In response to the 1974 Bucharest World Population Conference, the Canadian government solicited public testimony regarding a population policy for the nation. Environmentalists urged population limitation with a view to maintaining the ecosystem. Social justice and reallocation of resources were urged by an 2nd group. The quality of life argument was used by both proponents and opponents of population limitation. Canada has increased its world assistance for economic and population activities. With 1 of the highest growth rates of the developed countries, (in 1976-1977, 1.3% vs. .8% for the U.S. and .4% for France), Canada needs to propound a slow growth ethic. With future fertility at replacement level, Canada will look to immigration for population input.     

Advancing Methodological Knowledge Within State and Local Demography: a Case Study

Much of the academic literature dealing with state and local demography involves the development and evaluation of methods for estimating population. The focus on estimation methods is not surprising because they are used in many states to allocate resources. The quality control in regard to the validity and reliability afforded these methods by the traditional academic peer review process is important because, among other things, it serves to reduce the high potential for conflict that exists when resources are at stake. There are, however, methods being used by state and local demographers that have not been subject to peer review. While not necessarily unsound, these fugitive methods serve to keep the potential for conflict high because of the uncertainty regarding their validity and reliability. This paper examines just such a situation in the form of a case study. It is a discussion of a regression model developed in Nevada following the 2000 census that led to conflict over its use to estimate the population of Clark County, Nevada in 2002. The discussion reveals statistical and methodological shortcomings in this model that lead to an alternative model not subject to these shortcomings. This example illustrates how this type of analysis and discussion can lead to a wider understanding of methods on the part of practitioners through the corrective process of academic peer review. It also suggests that states in which estimates are used to allocate resources would be well-served by subjecting new methods being considered for use to academic peer review before they are adopted.     

Toward a reappraisal of social indicators for housing in developing nations

The need for social indicators to monitor and evaluate progress in the achievement of certain predetermined goals is now very evident. However, the design and construction of these indiactors still leave much to be desired. This paper analyzes the application of social indicators for housing in the context of the developing nations. The problem of changing standards of acceptable housing over time and the different images and needs of the diverse inhabitants bring the validity of present indicators for housing into question and at least, point out the need for talking social and cultural variables into consideration.     

Demography and cross-country differences in savings rates: a new approach and evidence

This paper includes both dependency thesis and pension motive for savings to explain the large differences in cross-country savings rates. The two demographic factors are incorporated into an overlapping generation model, and the steady-state savings rates for a sample of 109 countries are computed. Both demographic factors can explain up to 68% of the dispersion in the cross-country savings rates. Furthermore, if the expenditure burden is sufficiently high, fertility has a greater impact on cross-country savings rate differences than longevity does. This study also satisfactorily explains the large gap in savings rates between the high- and low-income countries.     

The Demography of Mental Health Among Mature Adults in a Low-Income,High-HIV-Prevalence Context

Very few studies have investigated mental health in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Using data from Malawi, this article provides a first picture of the demography of depression and anxiety (DA) among mature adults (aged 45 or older) in a low-income country with high HIV prevalence. DA are more frequent among women than men, and individuals affected by one are often affected by the other. DA are associated with adverse outcomes, such as poorer nutrition intake and reduced work efforts. DA also increase substantially with age, and mature adults can expect to spend a substantial fraction of their remaining lifetime—for instance, 52 % for a 55-year-old woman—affected by DA. The positive age gradients of DA are not due to cohort effects, and they are in sharp contrast to the age pattern of mental health that has been shown in high-income contexts, where older individuals often experience lower levels of DA. Although socioeconomic and risk- or uncertainty-related stressors are strongly associated with DA, they do not explain the positive age gradients and gender gap in DA. Stressors related to physical health, however, do. Hence, our analyses suggest that the general decline of physical health with age is the key driver of the rise of DA with age in this low-income SSA context.