1990年以来中国人口出生水平变动及预测

人口出生水平取决于生育水平、 生育模式以及育龄妇女比重.文章利用1980—2010年进入生育期的妇女的初育年龄对其终身生育率进行预测,并据此测算1990年、2000年以及2010年三个人口普查年份的人口出生率,结果表明,这三个年份的出生率估计值均能够以较小的误差接近由总和生育率计算得到的人口出生率真实值.在此基础上,文章进一步解释了1990年以来中国人口出生水平持续下降以及近十年来始终处于低水平的现象,是由30岁以下的年轻育龄妇女的生育水平、 生育模式(标准化年龄别生育率)和占总人口比重共同下降所致.考虑到二孩政策的全面放开,文章还模拟了高、 中、 低三种预测情景下2011—2050年中国人口出生规模的变化,指出即使在文章设定的高生育水平方案下,人口出生规模也只能在短期内实现回升.因此,为促进未来人口出生数量渐进增加,保持人口长期均衡发展,生育政策的调整目标仍须适当提高.     

中国总和生育率为何如此低?——推延和补偿的博弈

目前对于我国生育水平的讨论主要关注对"真实生育水平"的估计,而较少关注为什么生育水平越来越低。本文根据推延效应和补偿效应博弈的原理,以图对我国生育水平不断走低给予人口学的回答。本文考察了2000年、2010年、2015年三次普查/小普查的分年龄生育率的变化,表明年轻人口生育率的大幅下降和年长人口生育率的微弱上升导致了生育率的不断走低。对2000—2017年的年度数据的进一步分析也表明,推延效应强劲和补偿效应微弱并不是普查时点的一时现象而带有一贯的趋势性。只要这种趋势没有根本扭转,中国的生育水平将不可避免地继续走低。此外,高龄生育已经成为不容忽视的生育现象。     

2000～2010年中国生育水平推算——基于“六普”数据的初步研究

文章根据公布的"六普"数据,对2000～2010年中国生育水平进行模拟推算,并与往年普查及调查结果进行比较分析。结果发现,2000年"五普"0～14岁低龄人口漏登2 056万人,女性漏登率高于男性,1岁和7岁组漏登率最高;2000～2010年育龄妇女人数增长了7.86%,生育水平相对较低的35～49岁女性增幅较大;总和生育率经历了由降到升、再到稳中有降的过程,2000～2009年历年加总的总和生育率平均值为1.48。另外,"五普"低龄人口漏登并未导致此前一些研究认为的近10年"生育率被严重低估"的结果,由普查与调查数据直接获得的总和生育率与推算值之间的平均落差仅为0.09。在生育率低走、育龄妇女人口规模缩小且其年龄结构持续老化的多重影响下,中国人口年龄结构的急剧变化应引起高度重视。     

2000年以来中国少数民族人口的增长与分布

文章基于2000年第五次人口普查和2010年第六次人口普查数据,分析了2000—2010年10年间中国少数民族人口增长与空间分布的变化.研究发现,2000年以来,少数民族人口增长较之1990—2000年有大幅度下降,但不同民族间差异明显,由此导致各民族人口规模变化较大,与2000年比较,人口在1000万以上规模的少数民族由2个增加到4个,人口在10万人以下的人口较少民族由20个下降为19个;人口增长率不仅在民族间差异大,而且不同性别间、不同年龄间和不同地区间都有显著差异,特别是各民族的老年人口增长率都很高.虽然少数民族人口在省级行政区间的分布格局变化不大,但人口城镇化水平大幅度提高,少数民族人口城镇化率由2000年的23.36%提高到2010年的32.84%,但目前少数民族人口城镇化总体水平还很低,且各民族、各地区差异明显.     

生育文化在中国人口转变中的作用

20世纪90年代初,中国人口发展开始进入低生育水平,即妇女总和生育率小于更替水平以下,目前的1.8左右已接近政策生育率1.6;到1998年前后,这一转变基本完成了定势,即人口自然增长率达到1%以下.而这期间,全国人均收入水平尚未达到小康标准,即人均800美元.     

中国近期生育率的再估计

文章利用国家统计局的人口普查和人口变动抽样调查数据,在假设2010年普查漏报率与1990年普查漏报率相同的条件下,再次估计了2005年以来中国的生育率。普查同队列人口的比较计算表明,1990年0~5岁人口漏报率高达7.7%。以此漏报率调整了2010年0~5岁人口,进而推算相应年份的出生人口和生育率。同时,又通过总和生育率与出生率之间的关系,利用国家统计局公布的出生率,间接估计了2005年以来的生育率。这两种方法得到的估计结果虽有差异,但可以认为存在一致性,也进一步证实了以往一些研究使用不同数据和方法进行估计得到的结果。估计结果表明,中国近期的生育水平不会低于1.5,很有可能在1.6左右的水平上。文章亦对研究假设和可能存在的缺陷进行了讨论。     

十年发展路——记武汉市人口计生委主任韩燕君

从2001年到2010年的10年时间里,湖北省武汉市户籍人口从758.23万人变为836.73万人,符合政策生育率保持在95%以上的较高水平,低生育水平得到进一步巩固。出生人口性别比由2000年的128.20下降到2010年的112.54,科学、文明、进步的婚育观念正在逐步形成。     

1990年代中国生育水平研究

1990年代我国的生育水平究竟是多少,这一直是个谜。本文利用中国一直独立存在的严密而周全的教育统计数据,来估计2000年人口普查中的漏报,最终估计我国1990年代的生育水平。通过教育统计数据对人口普查数据进行调整,重构2000年普查0~9岁人口的年龄性别结构;并将2000年0~9岁人口转换为1991~2000年历年的出生人数,进而估算1990年代我国的生育水平。从推算和估计的结果看,我国1991年生育率达到更替水平,之后进一步下降,低于更替水平。1990年代后期我国的总和生育率在1.7~1.8。     

曲折、艰难、辉煌的中国生育转变

从1979～2009年30年人口变动的历程来看,中国人口转变是成功的,其结果是辉煌的,但其转变的历程,尤其是生育转变的历程是曲折和艰难的,历史留给人们的经验和教训是深刻的。本文将近30年来的生育转变历程为四个阶段,从而突显了不同阶段生育水平的变化,以及生育水平与社会经济变革、生育行为以及生育政策博弈的结果。1979～1984年生育水平反弹波动,反映出严格的生育政策遇到强大阻力,结果是欲速而不达。1985～1991年生育高峰如期而至,显示了人口内在规律的强大威力,从而最大限度地调动了人口控制的力量。1992～1999生育率再次下降,并穿透替代水平生育率,宣告人口转变基本完成。2000～2009低生育水平持续稳定,人口结构性问题逐步显现,统筹解决人口问题势在必行。     

中国2000年以来生育水平估计

文章根据公布的第六次人口普查的人口总数,利用第五次人口普查的人口数据,通过模型模拟的方法对中国2000～2010年的平均生育水平进行了估算。结果发现,官方公布的统计数据中,普查的人口总数和历年的总和生育率存在明显的自相矛盾;如果2010年第六次普查的人口总数是真实的,则历年公布的总和生育率明显偏低。在考虑2000年五普人口总数存在低估的情况下,文章估计2000年以来的平均总和生育率为1.57左右。     

Demographic Changes in Myanmar since 1983: An Examination of Official Data

According to official estimate, the total population of Myanmar reached 59.8 million in 2010. Yet, serious doubt exists on the reliability of these data. From the body of empirical evidence, best estimates of mortality and fertility are derived and serve to reconstruct prospectively the population of the country from 1983 to 2010. Despite the uncertainty regarding the levels and trends in international migration, the results are unequivocal: given the observed development in mortality and fertility, the population of Myanmar could not have reached 59.8 million in 2010. In addition to encouraging reconsideration of current population estimates, this analysis should also prompt the government and the international community to redouble their efforts in preparing for the 2014 census; carrying out a high‐quality count of the entire population, ideally followed by a post‐enumeration survey; conducting a thorough analysis of the census data; and publicly releasing the census results and accompanying analytical volumes in a timely manner.     

中国人口生育变化及影响因素——基于第六次人口普查的分析

本文在"六普"汇总数据的基础上,定量分析中国人口的生育水平、生育模式的变化和生育变化的影响因素。研究发现,在生育水平持续下降的情况下,结构性因素逐渐成为左右未来中国生育水平走向的决定性因素;生育模式正在向初婚初育间隔扩大,生育孩次向低孩次集中的方向发展;尽管年龄别已婚生育率的变化使得中国一般生育率上升9.613%,在导致生育水平下降的各因素中,育龄妇女年龄结构、婚姻状态等人口因素的影响显得越来越重要。研究结果对于正确理解我国的人口形势,科学地规划和调整人口政策具有十分重要的意义。     

Population growth trends in India: 1991 census

The decennial census counted the total population of India at 843.931 million as of the sunrise of March 1, 1991. The total is 160.6 million higher than that of a decade earlier in 1981. The actual census count exceeded by 45 million the official projections for 1991 based on the 1971 census. However, the official projections for the same year based on the 1981 census fell short by 7.6 million only. Most of the observed differences are explained by the slower decline in the fertility levels. The population growth ratepeaked during 1971–81, perhaps in 1972–73 (based on the Sample Registration Scheme data). The average annualexponential growth rate declined marginally to 2.11 per cent (4.5%) after having remained at a plateau for the previous two decades of 1961–71 and 1971–81. At this point in time, the fertility and mortality trends indicate that India will reach the replacement level fertility [Net Reproductive Rate of Unity] by the years 2010–2015. It can be said with a greater degree of certainty that the official target of reaching the replacement level fertility by the year 2000a.d. will not be reached. Based on the 1991 census results, it can be said that India will reach the billion mark by the turn of the century. The World Bank projects a population of 1,350 million by the year 2025a.d., and a stationary population of 1,862 million by the year 2150a.d., assuming that the replacement level fertility [Net Reproductive Rate = 1] in India is reached about the year 2015a.d.     

Theoretical explanation of rapid decline in China's fertility]

China's fertility decline is widely acknowledged. The 1982 census and a random survey of 1/1,000th of the nation's population set the total fertility rate at 2.6%. Bureau of statistics data collected in 1984 showed the nation's birth rate as 1.7% and total fertility rate 1.94%. Friendly observers call this a miracle; others blame the decline on forced government family planning policy. Scientific pursuit of the causes for the decline is an issue of practical and realistic value. First, favorable conditions for fertility decline have been fostered by the socialist system and are deeply rooted in the country's economic development. China's industrialization and urbanization have brought new lifestyles and liberated individuals and families from the constraints of traditional family life. Couples have chosen to limit the number of children, to enhance the quality of life and education potential of their children, thus altering the traditional high fertility in China. Education of women has played a role in raising women's consciousness; a 1982 census placed the fertility rate of women with high-school level education or above, lower than that for less or uneducated women. Neonatal mortality rate decline is also related to the spontaneous decline in fertility rate, as high fertility has historically been intended to compensate for high child mortality rates. Welfare and social security systems for the elderly have also helped change the traditional mentality of having many children as assurance of life support in old age. Social organizations have accelerated knowledge and methods of planned fertility. Later marriages are also a factor: in 1970 the average marriage age was 19 - 20 and had increased by 1976 to 22 - 23. Other favorable social factors include free birth control and the view of population planning as an essential part of national welfare.     

中国农村居民家庭的生育决策模型与实证分析

根据"五普"和"六普"资料,人口总和生育率显著低于世代更替水平,这表明中国人口进入了低生育水平发展阶段。关于这一问题的合理解释是除了计划生育政策影响外,农村家庭生育决策的变化可能是内生的重要影响因素。基于生育决策模型及实证分析,得出这样的结论:在土地量保持不变的条件下,农村居民家庭的生育决策主要取决于收入水平和抚养子女的成本。农村居民家庭可能会依据"量质权衡"减少生育子女,这可能是导致中国人口生育水平下降的根本原因。     

Below-replacement fertility of ethnic Indians in Fiji: a decomposition analysis of the components of changes in the total fertility rate

The population of Fiji consists of two major ethnic groups, Fijians and Indians; it also comprises other groups, such as Europeans, Chinese and other Pacific Islands. The 2007 Census showed that there were 56.8 % Fijians and 37.5 % Indians, with the remaining 5.7 % consisting of other groups. This paper examines ethnic variation in fertility using current fertility estimated directly from the census data. As the Fiji census continued to gather information on the relationship of mothers with their own children, this information has been used to estimate fertility trends over the past 15 years preceding the census by the application of the own-children method. Fiji has recently undergone a spectacular decline in fertility but with a marked variation between Fijians and Indians. The total fertility rate (TFR) among Indians dropped to 2.8 in 1986 and 2.5 in 1996. It continued to decline further, approaching below the replacement fertility of 1.9 in 2007. By contrast, Fijian fertility reached 3.9 in 1996. As with that of Indians, Fijian fertility also fell sharply, to 3.2 in 2007. This paper uses a decomposition analysis technique to determine the components of changes in the TFRs due to marital structure and marital fertility among Fijians and Indians, covering the intercensal periods, 1966–1976, 1976–1986, 1986–1996 and 1996–2007.     

How Far Has Fertility in China Really Declined?

According to births in the last year as reported in China's 2000 census, the total fertility rate (TFR) in the year 2000 in China was 1.22 children per woman. This estimate is widely considered to be too low, primarily because some women who had out‐of‐quota births according to China's one‐child family policy did not report those births to the census enumerator. Analysis of fertility trends derived by applying the own‐children method of fertility estimation to China's 1990 and 2000 censuses indicates that the true level of the TFR in 2000 was probably between 1.5 and 1.6 children per woman. A decomposition analysis of change in the TFR between 1990 and 2000, based on our best estimate of 1.59 for the TFR in 2000, indicates that about two‐fifths of the decline in the conventional TFR between 1990 and 2000 is accounted for by later marriage and less marriage, and three‐fifths by declining fertility within marriage. The analysis also applies the birth history reconstruction method of fertility estimation to the two censuses, yielding an alternative set of fertility estimates that are compared with the set derived by the own‐children method. The analysis also includes estimates of trends in fertility by urban/rural residence, education, ethnicity, and migration status. Over time, fertility has declined sharply within all categories of these characteristics, indicating that the one‐child policy has had large across‐the‐board effects.     

China's New Demographic Reality: Learning from the 2010 Census

China conducted its sixth modern census in 2010, recording a total of 1.34 billion people. This article presents an overview of the early census results. The data are of reasonable quality but contain some apparent defects where adjustments may be required. The census confirms that China has entered the era of demographic modernity and depicts the vast transformation of the country's rural‐urban distribution. Life expectancy has risen by 3–4 years in the decade since the last census, while fertility remains well below replacement—probably as low as 1.5 births per woman—and the sex ratio at birth is still significantly elevated. Low fertility and falling old‐age mortality are leading to continued and rapid population aging. Several coastal provinces grew by as much as 40 percent in the last decade, while a number of inland provinces have recorded population decline. China has reached an overall urban proportion of 50 percent.     

Methods of Estimation on New Born Baby and Construction of Monitoring System under the New Fertility Policy

Abstract： China＇s basic medical care system has achieved universal coverage, laced the system transformation with substance fair. Under the transformation background from universal coverage to integration on urban and rural areas, and the transformation direction from the ＂medical care＂ to ＂health for all＂, through the institutional transition path on system design, service delivery, financial support, this paper points out that how to improve quality of medical care and optimizing the level of health care services, match sustainable funding system and improving payment system, which in public health, medical services, medical care and medicine supply, realize the transtbrmation and the development from universal medical care to health care.     

Fertility decline in Taiwan: A study using parity progression ratios

Taiwan's decline in fertility is studied by using period parity progression ratios. Levels of marriage and motherhood are found to have been high and essentially constant though the late 1980s, suggesting that the decline has been due almost entirely to declines in second and higher order-births. Families with three or more children play an important role in maintaining the current level of fertility. The level of fertility would be even lower without these families. They contributed more than one-half child per woman to the total fertility rate during most of the 1980s. Total fertility rates computed from the period parity progression ratios indicate a substantially higher level of fertility than the conventional total fertility rate; they remained above or at replacement level through 1988. A formal demographic analysis suggests that the conventional total fertility rate has been depressed by shifts in age at childbearing.