区域研究中的常用人口预测模型

人口是一国和地区发展的重要因素。准确的人口预测是制定国民经济计划、区域发展规划的基础。文章以甘肃省为例,介绍了线性回归模型、马尔萨斯模型、Logistic模型和GM（1,1）模型在人口预测中的应用,包括模型的建立、参数的求解以及精度检验。并分别用这几种模型对甘肃省2006—2020年的总人口进行预测。结果表明几种模型的拟合精度都比较高,预测值比较接近。取几种模型的预测平均值作为甘肃省总人口规模的预测结果。几种模型的平均预测结果为：2010年甘肃省总人口将达到2745．84万人,2015年将达到2840．91万人。2020年将达到2934．23万人．     

基于三种模型的江苏沿海人口比较测算

本文运用马尔萨斯人口模型、Logistic 增长模型和线性函数三种理论模型，结合江苏省第六次全国人口普查研究统计数据对江苏沿海2012—2020年的人口发展规模进行预测，研究江苏沿海人口演变特征，预测未来人口增长率及规模，结果显示：基于三种模型运行的五种结果差异较大，根据江苏沿海的实际情况和前人研究结果，确认江苏沿海到2020年的总人口为2125.47万人。研究结果以期能为江苏沿海的科学发展提供参考依据。     

全面二孩政策实施下的中国人口发展态势

在全面二孩生育政策实施背景下,文章运用分家庭类型的分年龄别孩次递进生育率模型测算政策目标群体并根据其再生育意愿和计划完成时间推测新增出生人口,得出生育水平、生育模式,并对未来人口发展趋势进行预测分析.结果显示:十三五期间将累计多出生近2100万人,总人口峰值将推迟到2030年的14.66亿,略大于不调整政策的情况.同时,“全面二孩”生育政策一定程度上放缓了总人口和劳动力人口的减少速度;增加了2035年之后的劳动力供给、减轻了劳动力负担和人口老化程度.但预测结果也显示总人口的减少趋势并没有改变,2030年后我国人口将以平均每年640多万的规模持续减少,到本世纪末人口减少到10.16亿.     

西藏人口老龄化现状与发展趋势预测

人口老龄化是世界人口发展面临的共同问题。随着生育率的下降和人均预期寿命的延长,西藏的人口老龄化问题逐渐显露出来．通过对西藏自治区2010年人口普查资料的分析发现．虽然西藏整体尚未进入老龄化社会,但个别民族已经成为典型的老年型人口．局部地区也呈现出老龄化形态。西藏人口老龄化具有老年人口以藏族为主、世居民族老龄化程度高、老龄化程度地区发展不平衡等特点。尽管西藏还处在老龄化的初期,但应对老龄化问题必须具有战略性和超前性．鉴于此．本文对西藏未来40年人口老龄化的发展趋势进行了预测,并结合西藏的实际情况．提出探索应对西藏人口老龄化的途径。     

中国高等教育年龄人口总量、 结构及变动趋势

以1982年以来的人口普查数据为基础,以年龄别受教育模式、 平均受教育年限和预期受教育年限为主要测量方法,分析中国高等教育人口总量、 结构和存在的主要问题.通过递进人口预测模型,预测中国高等教育年龄人口总量、 结构和变动趋势.研究认为中国高等教育年龄人口总量进入下降阶段.各年龄队列之间人口规模从差距巨大,向差距显著缩小转变.预计今后高等教育年龄人口规模将持续稳定下降,人口规模从2015年的12849.16万人下降到2035年的9114.74万人,比2015年减少3700多万人,下降幅度接近1/3.未来的高等教育年龄人口在校规模具有很强的不确定性.预计2020年之前高等教育年龄人口在校规模处于下降趋势,2015年至2020年保持在3000万—4000万之间.     

西藏人口受教育程度的结构差异问题及其对策研究--基于六普数据的分析

运用2010年全国六次人口普查数据,对西藏自治区人口受教育程度有关方面的地域分布、性别分布、年龄分布、行业分布、城乡分布等结构差异问题进行了概括和分析。文章认为,西藏人口受教育程度的结构差异所造成的社会张力需通过具有针对性的人口文化教育结构优化对策来加以解决,进而化解西藏人口文化素质的制约性因素,从根本上扭转西藏教育发展的人口结构性困境。     

成都市人口变动态势的预测及其含义

本文以“等维灰数递补动态模型”对“人口发展方程”的流动人口预测部分作了修正,从而构建大城市人口态势综合预测模型,并对成都市2005~2030年包括流动—迁移人口在内的总人口及其结构变动作了预测。本预测结果的一般性政策含义是,在维持现行低生育水平不变的前提下,人口年龄金字塔的内缩,人口结构全面深度老化的趋势不因人口流迁而改变。为此,作者提出了相应的对策思考。     

中国人口总量与GDP总量关系模型研究

文章采用经济计量学中无约束混合有限多项式分布滞后模型,依据1952～2000年年度GDP、总人口、出生率与死亡率数据,构建了能反映总人口与GDP总量之间内在关系的、较为理想的综合模型。该综合模型预测的2001年中国人口总数(不含港澳台地区)与《中国统计年鉴(2002)》中公布的数据仅相差46.3367万人,表明该模型初步揭示了总人口与GDP总量之间的内在关系,对未来中国人口总量预测也有一定帮助。     

人口年龄结构变动下的最优退休年龄动态模型构建与应用——以陕西省为例

文章主要以社会福利最大化为基本前提,假定社会福利最大化条件下的退休年龄为最优平均退休年龄,通过建立人口年龄结构变动下的最优退休年龄动态模型,以陕西省人口数据和养老保险相关数据为基础,测算了社会福利最大化条件下的陕西省最优平均退休年龄。得出结论:满足社会福利最大化时,陕西省最优平均退休年龄将会从2010年的58.4岁,逐步提高到2020年的59.6岁,进而提高到2030年的61.3岁。     

两人群引力模型框架下的中国死亡率预测①--结合美国相应数据

Lee－Carter系列模型是对一个人群的死亡率动态建模和预测的模型。由于中国死亡率抽样数据的质量问题导致模型预测的效果不如国外文献所反映的那么精确。本文在两人群引力模型框架下结合中国和美国同期死亡率数据建模，并将结果与相应的单人群模型比较。研究表明，引力模型与APC模型相结合取得了最好的效果，在此基础上本文预测2025年老年抚养比会急剧上升到23．32％，2030年的婚配男性人口超出女性约2079万，婴幼青少年20年间累计死亡人数约293万。     

Malthus and the Philippines

Jose D. Drilon, Jr., president of Food Terminal, Inc., and a former undersecretary of the then Department of Agriculture and Natural Resources in the Philippines, attributes the widening gap between food supply and demand in developing countries to the high rate of population growth and to the inability of poor countries to produce more food. This situation, in which many countries are facing hunger, was predicted by Thomas Robert Malthus as early as the 16th century. The primary concern of Malthus was the problem of making the food supply keep pace with a constantly growing population. The question arises as to how reliable is Malthusian theory. According to Drilon, Malthus was correct in predicting that population would expand at a rate not previously imagined but that the other aspects of Malthusian theory might not hold true due to the intervention of human beings. For example, it is hoped that the imbalance between population growth and food production can be minimized in the future. In the Philippines there is good reason to be concerned about the validity of Malthusian theory. Although the country's growth rate has been reduced from 3.01% in 1970 to 2.6%, it is still quite high. However, the Philippines has actually been producing sufficient food to feed its population. To make the Philippines self-sufficient in rice, the government initiated the Masagana 99 program in May 1973. Technical and material resources from the public and private sectors were provided to aid rice producers. A nationwide information campaign was also launched to familiarize the farmers with the new methods of rice culture. Masagana 99 has been costly but effective. Since the launching of the program, rice production in the Philippines has been increasing at 7% a year. The government is now using the Masagana 99 formula to increase the production of other crops.     

Production functions and population theory

The persistence of the population problem in many developing countries' especially in Asia, must mean that the relation between population trends and productivity has to be kept continually under review. In recent years the economists' interest in this relation has shifted away from the Keynesian stagnation analysis, with its emphasis on the influence of population trends on the level and composition of consumption and investment, to a reconsideration of their influence on production. It is a striking testimony to the influence of Malthus that his theory is still under active consideration and that it frequently serves as starting point, as it does for Professor Belshaw, for an analysis of the economics of population. Divorced from its particular context, in which value judgements particularly distasteful to many commentators abound, and reformulated in terms of modern production theory, it clarifies the main issues, by showing what facts are required and what logic demands in order to provide a useful answer to practical problems of policy. Readers of the first two chapters of Professor Buquet's book will find ample confirmation of the sterility of much of the debate regarding optimum populations which developed largely from differences of opinion about definitions of “good” and “bad” economic criteria for policy than from faults in logic. The debate continues and the posthumous career of Parson Malthus still occasions even personal abuse! It would be difficult, however, to accuse Professor Belshaw of taking sides in the Malthusian debate. He takes the Malthusian analysis for what it is worth, shows where it fits the facts and where it does not, provides convincing evidence of a Malthusian problem in Asia by a skilful round-up of well presented statistics, and then, instead of committing himself to a forecast of what is likely to happen in Asia, he illustrates through the modern theory of production what are the pre-conditions for a removal of the population problem. This is surely a sensible procedure and contrasts favourably with the sibylline utterances of a number of distinguished amateur social scientists.     

The malthusian theory in pre-civil War America

Abstract Malthusian pessimism was singled out as the most vulnerable expression of the dominant, classical school of economics. Boston idealists, who saw the Malthusian concept as 'a curb to all reform', searched for a rebuttal in the study of institutional economics. The Pennsylvania protectionists, centred about Henry C. Carey, attacked the Malthusian concept as a barrier to the proposed 'American system' which was designed to increase population densities by promoting industrial growth. The fusion of these two schools of thought with the Free Soil elements in the Republican party brought about what many at the time considered a decisive defeat of the Malthusian philosophy in America. Clearly this was not so, for Malthus was never more popular than in post-Civil War America. Why this was so is the subject of this paper. There are various possibilities: The growing influence of Spencer, Mill and Darwin was certainly a factor, and four years of civil bloodshed appear to have reconciled many to the tragic view of life found in the Malthusian concept. Also, the wagefund doctrine was widely accepted during this period of industrial growth. Whatever the reasons, Malthus again proved his curious vitality after being buried by his enemies.     

On some theoretic issues about planned control of population]

There are basic differences between Marxian and Malthusian population thought: 1) For Marx, population is a social phenomenon--human reproduction belongs to social production and population laws are social laws influenced by the means of production. Marx recognized that human reproduction had both a natural and a social relationship, but Malthus population theory only acknowledges the natural relationship of human reproduction. Malthus believed that if population grows without interference, it will double every 25 years, or geometrically. It is evident Malthus substituted biological possibilities for the objective inevitability of population evolution, and natural population laws for social population laws. 2) Marx believed that social production is the unification of material production and human reproduction. Material production is controlled and necessitates control of human reproduction. For Malthus, the growth of the means of subsistence never catches up with the growth of the population, but Marx said that even though land is limited, the development of production forces is limitless. Marxist theory postulates that man is basically a producer, but that population must be planned because not everyone is a producer (e.g., children and the unskilled). 3) Malthus believed that in capitalistic countries unemployment, famine, and poverty stem from too many births by the laboring class, i.e., population determines the economy. The only solution to population problems is to have fewer children. For Marx, economics determines population problems.     

Precision,bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts: an exploratory analysis of time series models

Many researchers have used time series models to construct population forecasts and prediction intervals at the national level, but few have evaluated the accuracy of their forecasts or the out-of-sample validity of their prediction intervals. Fewer still have developed models for subnational areas. In this study, we develop and evaluate six ARIMA time series models for states in the United States. Using annual population estimates from 1900 to 2000 and a variety of launch years, base periods, and forecast horizons, we construct population forecasts for four states chosen to reflect a range of population size and growth rate characteristics. We compare these forecasts with population counts for the corresponding years and find precision, bias, and the width of prediction intervals to vary by state, launch year, model specification, base period, and forecast horizon. Furthermore, we find that prediction intervals based on some ARIMA models provide relatively accurate forecasts of the distribution of future population counts but prediction intervals based on other models do not. We conclude that there is some basis for optimism regarding the possibility that ARIMA models might be able to produce realistic prediction intervals to accompany population forecasts, but a great deal of work remains to be done before we can draw any firm conclusions.     

我国高龄老人长期护理需求测度及保障模式选择

伴随着人口老龄化,我国老年人口高龄化现象日渐突出。高龄老人失能概率高．长期护理需求大．是老年人口中的脆弱群体。本文基于MarkOV多状态转移模型．对我国高龄老人长期护理需求进行量化预测。结果表明．2010--2050年我国失能高龄老人人口规模将从860．47万人激增至4764．52万人．高龄老人长期护理费用从1020．47亿元攀升至5650149亿元。昂贵的长期护理费用致使传统以家庭为主体的长期护理模式难以为继．为有效缓解未来高龄老人长期护理财务压力,满足高龄老人长期护理服务需求,发展长期护理保险与提升长期护理服务水平成为契合我国现实国情的政策方略．     

中国农业劳动力占比变动因素估测:1990～2030年

在模型演示农业劳动力占劳动力总量比率受农业劳动力新进入量、退出量、转出量及非农劳动力变化等因素影响的基础上,文章估测了1990～2030年上述各指标的变动及贡献。在未来农业劳动力占比中位降速假设下,农业劳动力新进入量将从2005～2010年的2 023万人下降到2025～2030年的1 142万人,转出量与退出量分别从4 220万人和3 843万人下降到2 704万人和2 949万人,非农就业新增量从6 969万人下降到3 508万人。2005～2010年新进入、退出和转出量对占比下降影响分别为-15.1%、34.7%和38.1%,预计三者对2025～2030年占比变动的影响将分别变为-22.6%、54.3%、49.8%。针对农业劳动力转移与非农就业岗位创造压力趋于缓和但仍将长期存在的特点,作者认为,中国就业政策应从侧重数量扩张向"数量与质量、速度与结构"并重的方向调整。     

Modeling and Forecasting Health Expectancy: Theoretical Framework and Application

Life expectancy continues to grow in most Western countries; however, a major remaining question is whether longer life expectancy will be associated with more or fewer life years spent with poor health. Therefore, complementing forecasts of life expectancy with forecasts of health expectancies is useful. To forecast health expectancy, an extension of the stochastic extrapolative models developed for forecasting total life expectancy could be applied, but instead of projecting total mortality and using regular life tables, one could project transition probabilities between health states simultaneously and use multistate life table methods. In this article, we present a theoretical framework for a multistate life table model in which the transition probabilities depend on age and calendar time. The goal of our study is to describe a model that projects transition probabilities by the Lee-Carter method, and to illustrate how it can be used to forecast future health expectancy with prediction intervals around the estimates. We applied the method to data on the Dutch population aged 55 and older, and projected transition probabilities until 2030 to obtain forecasts of life expectancy, disability-free life expectancy, and probability of compression of disability.