孩次性别递进比研究

作为孩次递进方法论的新拓展,本文以新的理念和方法,创立了孩次性别递进比人口发展模型及孩次性别递进比指标系列;开创了独特的人口指标类型及其表达形式;给出了计算方法和实例,探讨了应用前景,论述了孩次性别递进比方法的应用前景和在出生性别比分析中的独特优势。     

孩次递进生育指标和生育指标的调整——与郭志刚教授商榷

文章主要针对郭志刚教授《关于生育政策调整的人口模拟方法探讨》一文,从普查数据计算年龄别孩次递进比、依据递进生育率推算的出生数和根据递进生育率进行预测三个方面讨论了郭志刚教授该文中的方法,并提出了自己的看法。     

孩次递进比的计算与调整生育指标的理解

文章就姜全保的商榷订正了根据普查数据计算年龄别孩次递进比公式,并进一步探讨了生育递进指标与去进度效应总和生育率指标的应用。     

一种独生子女数量间接估计方法

文章在讨论独生子女特定含义的基础上,以事实独生子女母亲为研究对象,从孩次性别递进基本思想和方法出发,给出了一种从生育率和生育间隔计算一孩独生概率的方法。作为独生子女数量间接估计方法应用的实例,文章对中国2000年末和2007年末的独生子女数量进行间接估计。     

中国育龄妇女递进生育模式研究

在对递进生育模式优点进行充分讨论的基础上,文章以1982、1990和2000年全国人口普查育龄妇女分孩次递进生育模式研究为例,分析中国育龄妇女递进生育模式的基本特点与基本规律。     

孩次性别递进人口发展模型及孩次性别递进指标体系

文章以生育率下降和出生性别比升高为背景,创立了孩次性别递进理论和方法。作者以全新的理念和形式建立了孩次性别递进人口发展模型及其指标体系,详细介绍了计算步骤和分析过程,概述了它们在人口统计分析中的应用。     

生育支持的政策瞄准——基于“初婚—生育孩次”递进模型的发现

国际经验表明,政策瞄准偏差是鼓励生育的家庭政策未能取得预期效果的主要原因之一。文章基于社会政策瞄准的分析框架,运用“初婚—生育孩次”递进模型和生育率弹性系数对中国生育支持政策进行瞄准分析;并以K省为例,深入剖析“初婚—生育孩次”递进率对总和生育率的影响及其社会阶层差异。研究发现：（1）现阶段20～29岁女性的初婚递进率对总体生育水平起主导性作用;（2）20～34岁女性的一孩递进生育率对生育水平的影响大于二孩及多孩递进生育率;（3）女性初婚和生育进度在不同社会阶层呈现分化趋势。当前中国各地的政策瞄准过度关注婚育进程的后端,存在瞄准偏差和低效问题。生育支持政策的重心应适当前移,瞄准对青年群体初婚和一孩生育的支持,重视对20～34岁不同社会经济特征的育龄人群提供针对性的政策支持。     

用孩次递进比模拟“全面二孩”政策调整初期的生育行为--以湖北省为例

以2014年湖北省卫生和计划生育委员会提供的包括“单独”、“双独”方面的数据为基础,描述了生育政策调整下被压抑的生育潜能释放的规律性和用孩次递进比的方法预测“全面二孩”政策调整初期的生育行为,与意愿分析方法相互比照,丰富了当下生育政策下生育行为预测研究。从分析结果可以看出,假定2016年“全面二孩”生育政策调整,湖北省第一年内会新增二孩出生量52621人,占湖北省2014年总出生量的7?41％;三年内最低会新增139262人的二孩生育量。城乡对比发现,农村新增二孩生育占到将近六成,且由抢生而导致的堆积主要集中在农村,40岁后的高龄抢生情况不严重。     

20世纪70年代以来中国育龄妇女递进生育史研究

文章以全国人口普查原始数据为基础,通过建立分孩次递进生育模型,重构20世纪70年代以来中国育龄妇女递进生育水平和生育模式连续变化的历史过程,分析中国生育转变的基本特点,以期为深入研究中国生育问题和规律奠定基础。     

中国出生性别比升高的孩次性别递进过程分析

应用孩次性别递进分析方法,使用1990年和2000年全国人口普查原始抽样数据和2005年1%人口抽样调查原始抽样数据,对我国出生性别比变化情况进行分析,并就1990年以来出生性别比升高的内在机制进行深入探讨。研究发现,从20世纪80年代初开始已经显示了生育性别干预的特征,2000年以来纯女户生育性别比升高到190以上,纯男户生育性别比下降到90以下。2005年纯女户的偏男倾向依然非常明显,生育第一孩的性别比也表现出明显的人为干预现象。正是由于对生育第一孩的性别比的直接干预,才促使了出生性别比持续升高和高孩次生育性别比及高孩次生育率的下降。     

失业率、年龄结构与人口迁移率的相关性研究

用定性与定量相结合的方法,从理论及实践两种角度,对影响人口迁移的主要因素进行了分析,指出：人口年龄结构及失业率是人口迁移率大小的决定因素。在此基础上,对影响我国人口迁移的相关性因素进行了分析,并对 21世纪我国人口的迁移做了预测。     

The Impact of the Use of Energy Sources on the Quality of Life of Poor Communities

Over the last few decades, the energy literature has been dominated by a theory of transition. The theory of transition is based on the notion that households gradually ascend an ‘energy ladder’, which begins with traditional biomass fuels (firewood and charcoal), moves through modern commercial fuels (kerosene and liquid petroleum gas (LPG)) and culminates with the advent of electricity. The ascent of the ‘energy body’, though not fully understood, is thought to be associated with rising income and increasing levels of urbanisation. Empirical evidence on energy and poverty issues has been to suggest that reality is rather more complex than the simple transitional theory would appear to suggest. To choose an appropriate set of indicators to measure the impact of electrification, this paper takes three basic different perspectives on human welfare, namely, basic needs, monetary, and non-monetary into consideration. According to the basic needs approach, welfare relates to people’s ability to satisfy their basic material needs. In the monetary approach it is a generally accepted view that the purchasing power of the household provides the best overall indicator of welfare. According to the non-monetary approach there has been a trend towards complementing economic measures of deprivation with non-monetary measures to obtain a multidimensional view of human well being, particularly by tracking health and education indicators. In the rest of the paper the two primary research projects conducted in two provinces in South Africa, namely KwaZulu-Natal and Limpopo, will be discussed. The one research project is still in process. However, the methodology will be discussed. In this project a comparison will be made of households’ experiences in villages with and without electricity to see if and to what extent electrification contributed to the welfare of the communities. In the second project households were interviewed about their experiences in the use of paraffin as source of energy.     

对我国人口城市化道路的思考

加快我国人口城市化的发展,对推动我国社会经济的进一步发展具有十分重要的作用。中国走什么样的人口城市化发展道路一直是一个很重要又争论不休的问题。本文通过对我国城市发展方针的反思,提出了我国应走以规模扩大式为主的人口城市化道路。     

甘肃省人才问题研究

本文对近10年来甘肃省人才状况进行了简要总结和分析.通过对人才总量及相对存量、人才的地区分布、人才的行业、职业构成以及科技、教育(主要是师资)状况的分析,就我省人才现状及存在的问题进行了剖析,并指出了症结所在.     

提高安徽省人口文化素质的思路与对策

安徽省经济基础薄弱,教育投入不足,办学条件差,教育事业总体上比较落后,导致安徽省人口,尤其是劳动人口文化素质偏低,严重地制约了安徽省经济的发展。针对安徽省教育存在的问题和人口文化素质的实际状况,结合省情省力和"科教兴皖"战略,提出优先发展教育,包括适应市场经济的需要,调整教育结构;增大政府教育投入,并建立多渠道筹措教育经费的新体制;巩固和发展农村基础教育,优化农村教育结构;加强师资培训,建设一支高素质的教师队伍等可行性的对策与建议。     

人口老龄化中的中国国情

中国在人口生育政策的直接作用下,以急刹车的方式迅速地完成了人口类型的转变并步入了人口老龄化的行列,在此前提下本文试图着重阐述和强调:中国人口老龄化的形成较之发达国家相比有根本的不同,因此涉及人口老龄化中的诸多问题必然显示出差异性,表现出明显的中国国情。充分认识这个国情,才能从宏观上不失时机地把握好我国经济发展进程和人口老龄化进程的关系,才能有利有节的解决好历史进程中中国人口老龄化中的诸多问题。     

流动人口信用缺失的经济学探析

从成本收益的角度看,流动人口强流动性的特点决定了他们更易选择违约,但并非所有的流动人口都选择违约。这是因为其违约的原因有多种,只有条件具备时他们才选择违约。由于流动人口数量已经占到我国总人口的十分之一还要多,因此有必要关注其诚信问题,采取相应措施提高其诚信水平。     

择校的人本经济学分析

优质教育供给和需求的严重失衡是择校热产生的根源。本文以优质教育的需求为着眼点 ,反思马斯洛需要理论 ,认为需要的发展过程不是直线渐进式的 ,而是呈现出螺旋式循环上升趋势 ,并以此对择校热进行人本经济学分析 ,提出家长生理和社会安全需要是产生择校的一个重要原因 ,同时指出健全和完善社会保障体制是从根本上解决择校热的有效途径之一。     

Mental Health of Parents and Life Satisfaction of Children: A Within-Family Analysis of Intergenerational Transmission of Well-Being

This paper addresses the extent to which there is an intergenerational transmission of mental health and subjective well-being within families. Specifically it asks whether parents’ own mental distress influences their child’s life satisfaction, and vice versa. Whilst the evidence on daily contagion of stress and strain between members of the same family is substantial, the evidence on the transmission between parental distress and children’s well-being over a longer period of time is sparse. We tested this idea by examining the within-family transmission of mental distress from parent to child’s life satisfaction, and vice versa, using rich longitudinal data on 1,175 British youths. Results show that parental distress at year t − 1 is an important determinant of child’s life satisfaction in the current year. This is true for boys and girls, although boys do not appear to be affected by maternal distress levels. The results also indicated that the child’s own life satisfaction is related with their father’s distress levels in the following year, regardless of the gender of the child. Finally, we examined whether the underlying transmission correlation is due to shared social environment, empathic reactions, or transmission via parent–child interaction.     

A Sociological Review of the Reflections and Dimensions of Quality of Life of the Widows in Tehran

The article explores some of the theoretical perspectives on widows, followed by empirical findings on the issue in Tehran. Widowhood transition being pursued by drop in relations, is observed and examined from various dimensions, with the hope of improving the quality of life of the widows. Some of the socio-economic effects of widowhood as appraised by various thinkers and scientists, are reflected in the context. The phenomenon being in existence as long as socially regulated marriage continues under the cause-and-effect laws, needs probing with special reference to the modern time. That is, being subject to emotional crises, they need to be multi-dimensionally studied. Through a multi-method strategy, and with the use of questionnaire tool, data were collected. Widowhood as a common problem in old age is followed by the isolation, a period of change and new challenges, i.e., reflection of a major stressful life event. However, widows as a vulnerable social group are seen worldwide with commonalities. In other words, about half of the women householders in the world are widowed. The author reflects a clear and tangible picture of the widows’ quality of life, and their satisfaction with life through the tabulated data. Nevertheless, government and relevant agencies in Iran, need to work and plan hard to provide the widows with necessary security and support.