浙江城镇居民收入差距与消费行为差异性研究

本文通过建立浙江城镇居民消费行为AIDS模型，从定量角度分析了浙江城镇居民的收入差距与消费行为的关联。主要研究结论是：第一，穿着的变化体现出居民追求高品质的生活方式；第二，居民对耐用消费品已经达到了一个很高的消费层次；第三，医疗保健已经渐渐成为居民的基本生活消费；第四，对于越来越高的教育费用，最低收入户和低收入户渐渐显得捉襟见肘；第五，浙江城镇最高收入阶层居民的购房行为具有一定的非理性特征。     

收入差距、习惯形成与城镇居民消费行为

近年来,中国城镇居民的收入差距持续扩大,消费需求严重不足,在一定程度上已经影响了人们的经济生活和社会稳定,这也成为目前经济学研究的热点和焦点问题之一。本文利用2000~2009年中国26个省的不同收入等级城镇住户调查数据,在构建省级动态面板数据模型的基础上,运用系统广义矩方法对收入差距、习惯形成与不同收入等级城镇居民消费行为进行了实证分析,结果表明:(1)城镇居民收入差距对低收入等级和中等收入等级家庭消费的影响显著,而对高收入等级家庭的消费没有显著性的影响。(2)低收入等级和中等收入等级的城镇居民消费行为具有显著的习惯形成,但低收入等级城镇居民的消费习惯较强,中等收入等级城镇居民的消费习惯较弱;高收入等级城镇居民的消费行为表现出耐久性。     

中国城镇居民消费差距的动态演进及分类决定

论文将测量个人收入分配差距的基尼系数方法引入到城镇居民消费差距的测定中。采用1992-2008年我国城镇居民各收入分组的消费数据,计算了食品、衣着、家庭设备用品及服务、医疗保健、交通通讯、文教娱乐、居住七类消费分项指标的差距及其对总消费差距的贡献,并通过反事实方法模拟分析分项指标对总体消费差异的影响。研究发现:第一,城镇居民消费差距与收入差距保持同步的发展趋势,但消费基尼系数一般小于同期收入基尼系数;第二,尽管恩格尔系数的持续下降一直成为平抑居民消费差距的最重要因素,但其对总体差距的贡献程度呈逐步弱化态势;第三,交通通讯和文教娱乐消费,尤其是前者,已逐步成为影响居民总体消费差距的重要力量;第四,虽然居民家庭设备消费差距一直高居不下,但是其对总体消费差距影响程度呈现出逐步弱化趋向。     

浅析缩小城镇居民收入差距与刺激消费

从20世纪90年代中期开始,特别是近年来,城镇居民收入差距不断扩大,为全社会关注。消费对经济增长具有重要的拉动作用,但城镇居民收入差距扩大将对消费产生不利影响。缩小城镇居民收入差距,增加城镇低收入人群的收入,对于提高居民的消费倾向具有重要的意义。本文对中国城镇居民收入差距的现状以及其对消费的影响分析,希望通过调整收入分配政策,缩小城镇居民收入差距,来刺激城镇居民消费,进而拉动内需促进经济增长。     

我国城镇居民收入差距对平均消费倾向的影响

本文利用1985-2009年的时间序列数据,通过建立我国平均消费倾向、基尼系数及居民消费物价指数的误差修正模型,对城镇居民的收入差距对平均消费倾向进行实证研究。协整检验的结果说明我国居民平均消费倾向与收入差距、消费物价指数之间存在协整关系,即三者之间存在长期的均衡关系。从实证结果看,无论是长期均衡还是短期影响,城镇居民的收入差距对平均消费倾向都是有较为显著地负向影响,且其长期影响尤为显著。     

江苏赣榆县城镇居民收支差距分析

正近年来,城镇居民收入快速增加,居民收入差距也有扩大之势,导致城镇居民消费差异较大。对被调查全县城镇居民收入支出进行分组分析,发现不同行业是造成收入差距的主要原因,收入水平影响居民的消费意向。建议提高居民就业渠道,完善社会保障体系,引导居民合理消费。在城镇居民总体收入水平逐年增加的同时,居     

我国城乡居民消费差异的塞尔指标分析

近年来在居民总体消费倾向下降的大趋势下,不仅农村居民、城镇居民本身消费行为存在较大差异,而且两者之间也有较大差异,为了准确反映此种差异性,我们引入了塞尔指标(Thell)进行分析.通过实证分析可以看出,这种差异急剧增加尤为突出已经成为一个不司忽视的严重问题.解决这一问题的根本途径在于缩小收入差距,特别是提高中低收入者和农村居民的消费能力.     

我国城镇居民家庭子女理性教育消费行为分析

我国实行教育制度改革后,对教育实行收费制度。随着城镇居民经济条件的改善,以及中国传统文化的影响,我国城镇居民的教育消费行为存在非理性因素。因此,本文对城镇居民教育消费行为的研究,及时客观地把握家庭教育消费现状,分析其原因,对于规范教育市场,引导家庭教育消费走向合理化,促使家庭消费资金的合理使用,具有重要的意义。     

我国城镇居民家庭子女理性教育消费行为分析

我国实行教育制度改革后,对教育实行收费制度。随着城镇居民经济条件的改善,以及中国传统文化的影响,我国城镇居民的教育消费行为存在非理性因素。因此,本文对城镇居民教育消费行为的研究,及时客观地把握家庭教育消费现状,分析其原因,对于规范教育市场,引导家庭教育消费走向合理化,促使家庭消费资金的合理使用,具有重要的意义。     

居民持久收入研究

持久收入是影响消费的决定因素.本文研究了我国城镇居民收入分布模型,以及收入分布结构的特征、变化趋势,合理估计了未来高收入层的分布状况.从而给出了扩大我国长期消费的若干有效的建议.     

Inferring Labor Income Risk and Partial Insurance From Economic Choices

This paper uses the information contained in the joint dynamics of individuals' labor earnings and consumption‐choice decisions to quantify both the amount of income risk that individuals face and the extent to which they have access to informal insurance against this risk. We accomplish this task by using indirect inference to estimate a structural consumption–savings model, in which individuals both learn about the nature of their income process and partly insure shocks via informal mechanisms. In this framework, we estimate (i) the degree of partial insurance, (ii) the extent of systematic differences in income growth rates, (iii) the precision with which individuals know their own income growth rates when they begin their working lives, (iv) the persistence of typical labor income shocks, (v) the tightness of borrowing constraints, and (vi) the amount of measurement error in the data. In implementing indirect inference, we find that an auxiliary model that approximates the true structural equations of the model (which are not estimable) works very well, with negligible small sample bias. The main substantive findings are that income shocks are moderately persistent, systematic differences in income growth rates are large, individuals have substantial amounts of information about their income growth rates, and about one‐half of income shocks are smoothed via partial insurance. Putting these findings together, the amount of uninsurable lifetime income risk that individuals perceive is substantially smaller than what is typically assumed in calibrated macroeconomic models with incomplete markets.     

房价波动、 收入水平对住房消费的影响——基于SYS-GMM估计方法的区域差异分析

基于生命周期-持久收入假说,在一般随机Ramsey模型的基础上,推导包含房价、收入和财富的住房消费函数,利用2002年至2013年31个省直辖市的面板数据,采用两步System-GMM估计方法考察我国房价波动和居民收入水平对住房消费的影响.实证结果表明:房价波动对全国居民住房消费具有显著的抑制作用;其中,滞后期和当期房价波动与当期住房消费负相关,挤出效应明显;未来一期房价波动与住房消费变化方向一致,存在积极的财富效应;此外,房价波动对东中西部各地区居民住房消费的抑制作用存在较大差异,西部地区抑制效应最为明显;滞后期住房消费与当期住房消费变动方向一致,人均可支配收入波动和人均年底储蓄余额对我国人均住房消费都起着重要的支撑作用.     

UNCERTAINTY,PERSISTENCE, AND HETEROGENEITY: A PANEL DATA PERSPECTIVE

The purpose of this paper is to review newly developed identification and estimation tools that are relevant for the analysis of dynamic dependence structures of income risk. I present an application to nonlinear permanent–transitory models of household income using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), but the empirical approach is more generally applicable. Household income processes are of interest because the size of shocks, the nature of their persistence, and cross‐household heterogeneity are all important to understand how income inequality varies with age and cohort and how it translates into consumption inequality. I argue that going from an econometrics of autocovariances to an econometrics of flexible distributions is feasible and has the potential to reveal richer aspects of risk—for example, nonlinear persistence of unusual shocks.     

A Parsimonious Macroeconomic Model for Asset Pricing

I study asset prices in a two‐agent macroeconomic model with two key features: limited stock market participation and heterogeneity in the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption (EIS). The model is consistent with some prominent features of asset prices, such as a high equity premium, relatively smooth interest rates, procyclical stock prices, and countercyclical variation in the equity premium, its volatility, and in the Sharpe ratio. In this model, the risk‐free asset market plays a central role by allowing non‐stockholders (with low EIS) to smooth the fluctuations in their labor income. This process concentrates non‐stockholders' labor income risk among a small group of stockholders, who then demand a high premium for bearing the aggregate equity risk. Furthermore, this mechanism is consistent with the very small share of aggregate wealth held by non‐stockholders in the U.S. data, which has proved problematic for previous models with limited participation. I show that this large wealth inequality is also important for the model's ability to generate a countercyclical equity premium. When it comes to business cycle performance, the model's progress has been more limited: consumption is still too volatile compared to the data, whereas investment is still too smooth. These are important areas for potential improvement in this framework.     

RISK SHARING WITH LIMITED COMMITMENT AND PREFERENCE HETEROGENEITY: STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION AND TESTING

In order to analyze the role of limited commitment and preference heterogeneity in explaining the consumption allocation, I propose a theoretical and empirical framework to estimate and evaluate a risk‐sharing model where insurance transfers have to be self‐enforcing and the coefficient of relative risk aversion may depend on observable household characteristics. I compare this model to benchmark models with full commitment and/or without preference heterogeneity using data from three Indian villages. I find that the limited commitment model with heterogeneous preferences outperforms the benchmark models in a statistical sense and in terms of (i) explaining the dynamic response of consumption to idiosyncratic income shocks, (ii) accounting for the variation of consumption unexplained by household and time effects, and (iii) capturing the variation of inequality across time and villages and predicting changes in inequality. I also use the estimated models to predict the effects of a counterfactual tax and transfer policy on the consumption allocation. The limited commitment model with preference heterogeneity predicts larger benefits to the poor than its homogeneous counterpart. (JEL: C52, D10, D52)     

Predictors of per capita alcohol consumption and gender-specific liver cirrhosis mortality rates: thirteen European countries, circa 1970-1984 and 1995-2007

Regression models of cross-national differences in social and economic predictors of per capita alcohol consumption and gender-specific cirrhosis mortality rates are developed for 13 European countries, first using 1970-1984 (period 1) data and then replicating with 1995-2007 (period 2) data. Regression analysis finds that stronger alcohol control policy laws and income inequality are highly significant predictors of consumption in both periods. Further, results show that alcohol consumption is a significant predictor of male mortality rates in both periods, while it is significant only in the second period for female cirrhosis mortality rates. Psychological well-being is a significant predictor for male and female cirrhosis mortality rates in both periods.     

为什么提高能源效率没有减少能源消费——能源效率回弹效应研究评述

提高能源效率常被认为是实现降低能耗、节约能源和减少污染的有效途径。不同国家和地区能源效率差异较大,在倡导提高一国能源效率的同时,另一种新经济现象可能会产生——能源效率回弹效应,即能源效率提高节约的能源会被能源价格效应、收入效应和总经济效应等产生的新的能源需求抵消掉。在理论上关于能源效率回弹效应是否存在不同学者给出了各自的解释,实证检验中其大小也因研究主体、方法和时间段的选取不同而有差异。     

The Risks of "Putting the Numbers in Context": A Cautionary Tale

Despite the warnings of risk communication specialists, members of the technical community often urge that technological risks should be "put in context" by comparisons against risks that are more familiar. Little quantitative evidence is available on the actual behavioral consequences of such risk comparison efforts. In the present study, subjects were presented with two types of information about a hazardous waste incinerator–a simplified statistical summary and a comparison of incinerator risks against the risks of smoking. Statistical information led to a modest increase in the reported willingness to vote in favor of the incinerator in a community referendum, but the comparison against cigarettes led to a slight decrease in support; the difference between the two messages is statistically significant ( p <.001). In combination with other results, this study's findings suggest that an implicit assumption of risk comparisons is in error: Opposition to controversial technologies may have little to do with citizens' levels of information about technology, having more to do with citizens' levels of trust in governmental and industrial actors.     

Effects of an Advisory Brochure on Fish Consumption of Urban Anglers in the Great Lakes Region

Past research has suggested that urban anglers are a group at high risk of being exposed to contaminants from fish consumption. Fish consumption advisories have been used in many regions to encourage healthy fish‐eating behaviors, but few studies have been designed to assess whether these advisories actually influence behavior as intended. We conducted a large‐scale, randomized experiment to test the influence of an advisory brochure on urban anglers’ fish consumption. We collected detailed information on anglers’ fish consumption in three urban counties in the Great Lakes region in the summers of 2014 and 2015. We provided a treatment group with fish consumption guidelines in an advisory brochure before the summer of 2015 and compared their change in fish consumption to a control group. The brochure led to a reduction in fish consumption for anglers who ate the most fish; these anglers reduced their consumption of high‐contaminant purchased fish (by ≥0.2 meals/summer for those in 72nd percentile of fish consumption or above), high‐contaminant sport‐caught fish (by ≥0.4 meals/summer for those in 87th percentile and above), and low‐contaminant sport‐caught fish (by ≥0.3 meals/summer by those in 76th percentile and above). The brochure also reduced sport‐caught fish consumption among those anglers who exceeded the advisories in 2014 (by 2.0 meals/summer). In addition, the brochure led to small increases in sport‐caught fish consumption (0.4–0.6 meals/summer) in urban anglers who ate very little sport‐caught fish (≤1 meal/summer).     

不同线上销售模式的产品定价策略研究

现售和预售是线上销售的主要模式。考虑不同模式下消费者对产品估值的差异,分析现售、预售和混合销售（同时开展现售和预售）三种模式下消费者购买决策过程,构建Stackelberg博弈和Nash均衡模型,得到三种模式的产品均衡定价及需求,并探讨开展不同销售模式对应的消费者估值差异阈值以及不同主导结构对供应链企业绩效的影响。结果表明：任意主导结构下,销售模式只会影响现售产品价格,对预售产品定价没有影响;任意销售模式下,制造商主导结构的产品定价和批发价更高,但产品销售量较低;消费者延迟收货敏感度增强使预售模式的供应链成员企业的利润降低,但混合销售模式可以有效防止由此引起的损失,且制造商主导可以同时实现供应链成员企业的利益最大化。