我国西南地区县域离婚人口的性别差异研究

西南地区县域离婚人口性别比普遍偏高,离婚男性仍存在着较为严重的婚姻挤压。西南地区县域人口平均离婚性别比为138,15岁以上离婚率为16.8‰,男女比例差别很大。离婚率在0-30区段的县域分布最为集中,离婚性别比在100-150间的县域最多。1990-2010年间离婚率除少部分县域上升外总体呈下降趋势,离婚性别比总体上升,上升幅度在50-150之间的县域最为集中。     

我国1990年离婚率静态分析

<正> 一、引言婚姻是人口的一个重要特征,15岁以上人口都处于某种婚姻状态下。我国的人口普查把婚姻状况分为四类:未婚、有配偶、丧偶和离婚,其中离婚是指配偶生存期间通过法律手段解除婚姻关系的一种婚后状况。离婚是形成独身人口和不完全核心家庭的一个重要因素,并且直接涉及妇女生育、家庭结构和子女抚养教育等问题。离婚率是表示某一时期人口中离婚频率的指标,国际上通用的离婚率是一年中离婚对数与年平均人口数之比。我国的人口普查有关婚姻状况的调查都     

进城还是回村？——跨省婚迁者的空间选择

在经济社会转型、人口频繁流动的条件下,婚迁由乡到城的单向迁移转变成为城乡互动的双向流动。婚迁者留在城市还是回到乡村,要取决于多种条件。本研究通过测度跨省婚迁的性别比发现,自1990年来的20年间我国省际婚迁性别比下降近一半。全国省际婚迁性别比呈现城市-城镇-乡村两端大中间小的“微笑曲线”。在婚迁的空间选择上,男性以城市为主,女性则以乡村为主。进一步分析影响婚姻迁移的因素发现,经济变量中人均GDP对总婚迁和城市婚迁呈正向影响,城镇和乡村呈负向影响;居民收入和消费状况对婚姻迁移产生正向影响,但消费的城乡差别则对其产生负向影响;人口的城乡流动与迁移以及社会变量中各因素对跨省婚迁产生正向影响,而文化变量中的各因素则形成负向影响。     

欧洲的离婚率与单一父母家庭

自从60年代中期,特别是七十年代以来,欧洲各国的离婚人数迅速上升,1960年到1983年间离婚本增长了3倍。据欧洲共同体1986年出版的《城市地区生活状况》一书,1983年欧洲经济共同体国家除爱尔兰(该国法律不承认离婚——编者)离婚率为0外,与1960年相比,离婚率均大幅度上升,其中英国和丹麦,分别从0.5‰和1.5‰上升到2.9‰。其它国家的上升幅度在2—4倍之间不等,另据欧洲共同体1986年出版的《共同体人口状况》一书所引用的原始数据,1975年一些欧洲国家结婚与离婚之比为:法国,每5对结婚者中有一对以上离婚,英格兰和威尔士为4:1,丹麦为3:1。     

对数还是人数——结婚率与离婚率的算法

<正> 对结婚率与离婚率如何统计,一直存在着不同的看法。1981年群众出版社出版的《人口统计》和河北人民出版社同年出版的《人口统计学》,分别有如下叙述: 结婚、离婚同人口出生、自然增长有直接关系,计算结婚率、离婚率也是人口统计的指标。它们的计算方法同上述出生率等基本相同,所不同的是结婚、离婚都是双方的,所以计算时用多少“对”来表示,即每千人口中有多少对结婚或离婚数,可写成公式:     

外来人口对中国城市地区出生性别比的影响

外来人口对中国城市地区出生性别比的影响是近年来学术界争论的焦点问题之一。利用2000年人口普查数据,通过比较农村本地人口、城市本地人口和城市外来人口三个人口群体在出生性别比上的差异,并进行多元统计分析,考察20世纪90年代以来中国城市地区异常偏高的出生性别比是否由外来人口造成?结果表明,城市外来人口生育的性别偏好与农村本地人口和城市本地人口相比没有显著差异,都存在强烈的生男意愿。20世纪90年代以来中国生育水平迅速下降的同时,出生性别比出现了不分城乡的普遍升高和偏高,城市出生性别比偏高,既有外来人口的作用,也有本地人口的作用,外来人口并不是造成中国城市地区出生性别比偏高的唯一或主要的原因。     

1982年日本人口自然变动的新特点

<正> 根据日本厚生省公布的昭和57年(1982年)人口动态概况和总理府统计局发表的国势调查结果进行推算分析,我们可以看到,1982年日本人口的自然变动有如下的新特点:人口出生率下降迟缓;癌症患者死亡率骤增;婴儿死亡率创世界最低水平;高龄化超出预测,65岁以上的老年人口比率高达9.6%;离婚人数及离婚率继续保持日本战后的最高纪录。现将1982年日本人口的自然变动情况综述如下: 总人口1982年日本的总人口为1.1896亿人,比1981年增长了0.69%,净增81万人,人口增长速度1972年最高达到     

上海、陕西、河北三省市的离婚分析

一、引言 自1982年第三次人口普查与千分之一生育调查以来,我国告别了人口数据贫乏的历史,跨入了人口数据资源大国的行列。与许多发展中国家相比,我国目前的初婚、生育、迁移、死亡等方面的人口数据是十分丰富的。然而,我国的离婚数据却仍然非常贫乏。全国只公布了可供用于估算粗离婚率的分年份的离婚总数。而粗离婚率与粗出生率、粗死亡率类似,受到人口年龄构成、婚姻状态构成等人口要素变动的影响,往往给出不确切甚至错误的信息。     

广东人口文化素质显著提高

一、总人口文化素质显著提高第四次人口普查数据显示,1990年7月1日,广东具有小学以上文化程度的人口共4634.08万人,与1982年相比,增加了1063.47万人,增长29.78%,大大快于同期总人口17.15%的增长速度;每万人口中有小学以上文化程度的为7376人,比全国平均水平多390人;在全国大陆30个省、市、区中,按具有小学以上文化程度人口占总人口的比重高低排列,广东居第9位;全省15岁及15岁以上的文盲半文盲人口共656.28万人,与1982年相比,     

内蒙古人口与经济增长的相关性研究

人口与经济增长的关系是复杂的,内蒙古是民族自治地方,人口有其独特性,运用OLS模型实证分析各人口因素对经济增长的影响,结果显示：人口城镇化水平的提高、第二、三产业从业人员比重的上升及少儿抚养比的下降对1990年以来的内蒙古经济增长具有正相关作用;老年抚养比的上升、少数民族人口比重的提高对经济增长具有负相关作用;人口自然增长率、人口性别比及平均受教育年数对经济增长的作用不显著。     

乡城流动人口对大城市人口年龄结构影响分析——以京、津、沪为例

城市接纳农村流动人口,从近期看,可以增加城市劳动力供给,减缓城市老龄化速度,减轻城市抚养比;从长远看,可以优化和调整城市的人口年龄结构,改善未来人口发展条件。     

自由解放、红色革命、情感回归与离婚--基于1898－2009年的考察

1898－2009年离婚变化历程可以十分直观地折射出中国政治、经济与社会发展的曲折历程。我国从戊戌变法到新中国成立前夕,经历了多次政治运动,诞生了若干部与婚姻相关的法律,离婚由城市最初的星星点点转向农村后来的燎原之势,离婚空间场域变换导致离婚数量增长。从解放初期到＂反右＂初期,再到＂文革＂末期,知青返城、新《婚姻法》的修订,《婚姻登记条例》的实施,我国迎来一次次离婚潮。1980年代改革开放并没有停住离婚者的脚步,反而使离婚率呈一路上扬的态势。本研究截取1898－2009年间若干时间截面,选择典型的群体,解析各时期较为典型的离婚事件,阐释国家制度变迁对婚姻离散的影响,进一步阐释婚姻制度对中国社会治理与社会发展的意义。     

Breaking Up Is Hard to Count: The Rise of Divorce in the United States, 1980–2010

This article critically evaluates the available data on trends in divorce in the United States. We find that both vital statistics and retrospective survey data on divorce after 1990 underestimate recent marital instability. These flawed data have led some analysts to conclude that divorce has been stable or declining for the past three decades. Using new data from the American Community Survey and controlling for changes in the age composition of the married population, we conclude that there was actually a substantial increase in age-standardized divorce rates between 1990 and 2008. Divorce rates have doubled over the past two decades among persons over age 35. Among the youngest couples, however, divorce rates are stable or declining. If current trends continue, overall age-standardized divorce rates could level off or even decline over the next few decades. We argue that the leveling of divorce among persons born since 1980 probably reflects the increasing selectivity of marriage.     

Migration in the Southeast

Between 1940 and 1960 the Southeast experienced both economic and demographic revolutions. They were interrelated in many ways. Agriculture was mechanized and reorganized making millions of farmers and farm laborers surplus. The natural assets of the region were developed and industry grew more rapidly than in other regions. There were marked changes in the labor force, a rapid increase in the proportion of women employed and a decrease in the proportion of Negroes. The level of family income rose faster than in other regions.Five and three quarter million persons were transferred from the farm population. A net of 2.7 million left the region and 3 million were absorbed in nonfarm areas within the region. In 1960 52 percent of the population was in cities. Increase was especially fast in metropolitan urban areas, mostly in suburbs. There were also substantial increases in the rural nonfarm areas. Small cities as a group showed no net in-migration. Among the net migrants out of the region the ratio was 4 colored to1 white.The age and sex distribution was warped, especially below age 30, slowing down the early marriage rate and the crude birth rate.The projection of the trend which was being followed in the early 1960s indicates that the regional rate of increase may overtake that of the rest of the country, being particularly rapid in the young adult and adolescent ages.For the purposes of this study the Southeast includes: South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. These were originally the heaviest cotton producing states and the heart of the sharecropping area where the reorganization of the economy was particularly disruptive.     

Quality of life declines in big and growing cities. Poverty in cities

The quality of life in developing countries during the first couple of decades after the Second World War was higher in cities than in small towns and villages. However, the relative advantage of city dwellers in developing countries has declined since the 1970s, with high-growth rate cities experiencing a more severe decline. Infant mortality levels in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s are as high in large cities as in the smallest towns and villages. In most developing regions, big city residents are increasingly disadvantaged, such that researchers and policymakers can no longer assume that the quality of life in urban areas is better than in rural areas. The urban transformation of the developing world is similar to the 19th century urbanization of now-developed countries, but today many more people are crowding into far bigger cities. Using survey information from 43 countries representing 63% of the developing world's urban population outside of China and India, Martin Brockerhoff of the Population Council and Ellen Brennan of the UN Population Division found that rapid population growth and big size have overwhelmed the capacity of cities to provide essential goods and services.     

A Comparative Analysis of the Fertility of the Urban and Rural in China Since 2000

The different in the fertility of the rural and urban and future changing trend are very important questions to understand China’s population problem. This paper calculates the fertility of the urban and the rural since 2000 based on the statistical data and compares the fertility rate in the urban and the rural population since 2000. The finding shows that the TFR in the rural is less than 1.8 while the TFR in the urban is less than 1.3 and the difference is narrowing year by year. The fertility difference is mainly caused by the second child, generally speaking the second child fertility tend to increasing slightly while the first child fertility shows dramatic fluctuations because of the Chinese folk culture, the fertility fluctuation in the rural is much dramatic than that in the urban. The mean age at childbearing (MAC) has been delaying in both the rural and the urban areas in the decade.     

中国30年早婚变化分析--基于“六普”数据

文章使用第六次全国人口普查数据对1980年以来的早婚率进行了分析,发现30年来早婚率经历了从急剧升高到逐渐下降又到部分省份升高的过程,早婚率由女性高于男性转变为男性高于女性;总体上农村地区的早婚率高于城镇,受教育程度越低的群体中早婚发生率越高,当前男性早婚现象更多发生在部分东中部地区和西部地区,女性早婚现象更多发生在西部地区。进一步分析认为,导致早婚的根源是民间传统习俗在部分人群受教育程度低、性别比失衡、青少年性意识萌动但性教育滞后以及基层服务缺位和基层管理弱化等因素作用下的结果。     

A survey of population in the ESCAP region

In 1983, the ESCAP region added 44 million people, bringing its total population to 2600 million, which is 56% of the world population. The annual rate of population growth was 1.7% in 1983 compared to 2.4% in 1970-75. The urban population rose from 23.4% in 1970 to 26.4% in 1983, indicative of the drift from rural areas to large cities. In 1980, 12 of the world's 25 largest cities were in the ESCAP region, and there is concern about the deterioration of living conditions in these metropoles. In general, however, increasing urbanization in the developing countries of the ESCAP region has not been directly linked to increasing industrialization, possibly because of the success of rural development programs. With the exception of a few low fertility countries, a large proportion of the region's population is concentrated in the younger age groups; 50% of the population was under 22 years of age in 1983 and over 1/3 was under 15 years. In 1983, there were 69 dependents for every 100 persons of working age, although declines in the dependency ratio are projected. The region's labor force grew from 1100 million in 1970 to 1600 million in 1983; this growth has exceeded the capacity of country economies to generate adequate employment. The region is characterized by large variations in life expectancy at birth, largely reflecting differences in infant mortality rates. Whereas there are less than 10 infant deaths/1000 live births in Japan, the corresponding rates in Afghanistan and India are 203 and 121, respectively. Maternal-child health care programs are expected to reduce infant mortality in the years ahead. Finally, fertility declines have been noted in almost every country in the ESCAP region and have been most dramatic in East Asia, where 1983's total fertility rate was 40% lower than that in 1970-75. Key factors behind this decline include more aggressive government policies aimed at limiting population growth, developments in the fields of education and primary health care, and greater availability of contraception through family planning programs.     

Internal and International Migration Across the Urban Hierarchy in Albania

The interactions between the processes of urbanization and international migration in less developed and transition countries have important repercussions for socioeconomic development, but are not well understood. Based on the retrospective data from the Albanian Living Standards Measurement Survey 2008, we first assess the geography of migration in terms of the rural–urban continuum, the urban hierarchy and the outside world since 1990. We then investigate the spatio-temporal diffusion of rural-to-urban and international movements using survival models. Results reveal an immediate onset of large-scale rural exodus, despite the post-communist crisis. Internal migrants mainly moved to the capital, bypassing secondary cities, and were predominantly female. Initially, international migrants were primarily men who tended to originate from the main urban agglomerations. The diffusion of opportunities to emigrate down the urban hierarchy and across the sexes then redirected the rural exodus abroad, despite domestic economic development. This evolution in population mobility is related to the gendered patterns and interlinkages of the two flows, as well as to rising inequalities within the urban hierarchy.

     

珠三角非户籍人口的职业与社会融合实证分析

本文采用专项问卷调查的数据,通过多种统计方法来分析职业变量在非户籍人口社会融合过程中的作用。研究发现,职业与个体社会融合程度密切相关,处于职业高层人员的整体社会融合程度较高;相对于蓝领职业群体而言,白领职业群体的融合程度较高,且个体之间融合程度的差异较大;性别和年龄与职业的交互效应对社会融合的影响是显著的;人口变量对蓝领群体的社会融合不存在显著影响,然而年龄和代际变量对白领群体的社会融合存在显著影响。作为夹层群体的非户籍白领人员,他们的社会融合更应该得到关注,且应该成为促进融合的优先考虑群体。