Mixture Model Analysis of Partially Rank‐Ordered Set Samples: Age Groups of Fish from Length‐Frequency Data

We present a novel methodology for estimating the parameters of a finite mixture model (FMM) based on partially rank‐ordered set (PROS) sampling and use it in a fishery application. A PROS sampling design first selects a simple random sample of fish and creates partially rank‐ordered judgement subsets by dividing units into subsets of prespecified sizes. The final measurements are then obtained from these partially ordered judgement subsets. The traditional expectation–maximization algorithm is not directly applicable for these observations. We propose a suitable expectation–maximization algorithm to estimate the parameters of the FMMs based on PROS samples. We also study the problem of classification of the PROS sample into the components of the FMM. We show that the maximum likelihood estimators based on PROS samples perform substantially better than their simple random sample counterparts even with small samples. The results are used to classify a fish population using the length‐frequency data.     

Modeling of paired zero-inflated continuous data without breaking down paired designs

Paired data have been widely collected in the efficiency studies of a new method against an established method in environmental, ecological and medical studies. For example, in comparative fishing studies, ability of catching target species (fish catch) or reducing the catch of non-target species (fish bycatch) is usually investigated through a paired design. These paired fish catches by weight are generally skewed and continuous, but with a significant portion of exact zeros (no catch). Such zero-inflated continuous data are traditionally handled by two-part models where the zero and positive components are handled separately; however, this separation generally destroys paired structure, and thus may result in substantial difficulty in characterizing the relative efficiency between two methods. To overcome this problem, we consider compound Poisson mixed model for paired data with which the zero and non-zero components are characterized in an integral way. In our approach, the clustering effects by pair are captured by incorporating relevant random effects. Our model is estimated using orthodox best linear unbiased predictor approach. Unlike two-part models, our approach unifies inferences of zero and positive components. Our method is illustrated with analyses of winter flounder bycatch data and ultrasound safety data.     

一种新的空间权重矩阵选择方法

空间权重矩阵选择问题一直是空间计量经济学中的一个难题,权重矩阵的选择正确与否关系到模型的最终估计结果。本文在空间滞后模型框架下,把空间权重矩阵选择问题转化为变量选择问题,然后利用CWB方法进行变量选择。中国城市服务业集聚机理实证研究显示,利用本文所提出的方法所选取的空间权重矩阵较为合理,进而可以减少因为空间权重矩阵误设问题而引起的模型估计偏误。在大样本情形下,该方法可以非常有效地降低计算成本。     

A partially adaptive estimator for the censored regression model based on a mixture of normal distributions

The goal of this paper is to introduce a partially adaptive estimator for the censored regression model based on an error structure described by a mixture of two normal distributions. The model we introduce is easily estimated by maximum likelihood using an EM algorithm adapted from the work of Bartolucci and Scaccia (Comput Stat Data Anal 48:821–834, 2005). A Monte Carlo study is conducted to compare the small sample properties of this estimator to the performance of some common alternative estimators of censored regression models including the usual tobit model, the CLAD estimator of Powell (J Econom 25:303–325, 1984), and the STLS estimator of Powell (Econometrica 54:1435–1460, 1986). In terms of RMSE, our partially adaptive estimator performed well. The partially adaptive estimator is applied to data on wife’s hours worked from Mroz (1987). In this application we find support for the partially adaptive estimator over the usual tobit model.     

Singular weighing designs and estimation of total weight

The problem of estimation of total weight of objects using a singular spring balance weighing design has been studied in this paper. A lower bound of the estimated total weight is obtained and some classes of designs attaining the lower bound are studied.     

Joint regression modeling for missing categorical covariates in generalized linear models

Missing covariates data is a common issue in generalized linear models (GLMs). A model-based procedure arising from properly specifying joint models for both the partially observed covariates and the corresponding missing indicator variables represents a sound and flexible methodology, which lends itself to maximum likelihood estimation as the likelihood function is available in computable form. In this paper, a novel model-based methodology is proposed for the regression analysis of GLMs when the partially observed covariates are categorical. Pair-copula constructions are used as graphical tools in order to facilitate the specification of the high-dimensional probability distributions of the underlying missingness components. The model parameters are estimated by maximizing the weighted log-likelihood function by using an EM algorithm. In order to compare the performance of the proposed methodology with other well-established approaches, which include complete-cases and multiple imputation, several simulation experiments of Binomial, Poisson and Normal regressions are carried out under both missing at random and non-missing at random mechanisms scenarios. The methods are illustrated by modeling data from a stage III melanoma clinical trial. The results show that the methodology is rather robust and flexible, representing a competitive alternative to traditional techniques.     

Optimum spring balance weighing designs for estimating the total weight

The problem of estimation of the total weight or objects using a spring balance weighing design has been deait with in this paper Based on a theorem by Dey and Gupta (1977) giving a lower bound for the variance of the estimated total weight, a necessary and sufficient condition for this lower bound to be attained is obtained. A few special cases where the lower bound is attained are enumerated.     

Marginal semiparametric multivariate accelerated failure time model with generalized estimating equations

The semiparametric accelerated failure time (AFT) model is not as widely used as the Cox relative risk model due to computational difficulties. Recent developments in least squares estimation and induced smoothing estimating equations for censored data provide promising tools to make the AFT models more attractive in practice. For multivariate AFT models, we propose a generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach, extending the GEE to censored data. The consistency of the regression coefficient estimator is robust to misspecification of working covariance, and the efficiency is higher when the working covariance structure is closer to the truth. The marginal error distributions and regression coefficients are allowed to be unique for each margin or partially shared across margins as needed. The initial estimator is a rank-based estimator with Gehan’s weight, but obtained from an induced smoothing approach with computational ease. The resulting estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal, with variance estimated through a multiplier resampling method. In a large scale simulation study, our estimator was up to three times as efficient as the estimateor that ignores the within-cluster dependence, especially when the within-cluster dependence was strong. The methods were applied to the bivariate failure times data from a diabetic retinopathy study.     

PARTIALLY LINEAR MODEL SELECTION BY THE BOOTSTRAP

We propose a new approach to the selection of partially linear models based on the conditional expected prediction square loss function, which is estimated using the bootstrap. Because of the different speeds of convergence of the linear and the nonlinear parts, a key idea is to select each part separately. In the first step, we select the nonlinear components using an ' m -out-of- n ' residual bootstrap that ensures good properties for the nonparametric bootstrap estimator. The second step selects the linear components from the remaining explanatory variables, and the non-zero parameters are selected based on a two-level residual bootstrap. We show that the model selection procedure is consistent under some conditions, and our simulations suggest that it selects the true model most often than the other selection procedures considered.     

Error variance estimation via least squares for small sample nonparametric regression

In this paper we explore statistical properties of some difference-based approaches to estimate an error variance for small sample based on nonparametric regression which satisfies Lipschitz condition. Our study is motivated by Tong and Wang (2005), who estimated error variance using a least squares approach. They considered the error variance as the intercept in a simple linear regression which was obtained from the expectation of their lag-k Rice estimator. Their variance estimators are highly dependent on the setting of a regressor and weight of their simple linear regression. Although this regressor and weight can be varied based on the characteristic of an unknown nonparametric mean function, Tong and Wang (2005) have used a fixed regressor and weight in a large sample and gave no indication of how to determine the regressor and the weight. In this paper, we propose a new approach via local quadratic approximation to determine this regressor and weight. Using our proposed regressor and weight, we estimate the error variance as the intercept of simple linear regression using both ordinary least squares and weighted least squares. Our approach applies to both small and large samples, while most existing difference-based methods are appropriate solely for large samples. We compare the performance of our approach with other existing approaches using extensive simulation study. The advantage of our approach is demonstrated using a real data set.     

Nonresponse weighting adjustment using estimated response probability

To reduce nonresponse bias in sample surveys, a method of nonresponse weighting adjustment is often used which consists of multiplying the sampling weight of the respondent by the inverse of the estimated response probability. The authors examine the asymptotic properties of this estimator. They prove that it is generally more efficient than an estimator which uses the true response probability, provided that the parameters which govern this probability are estimated by maximum likelihood. The authors discuss variance estimation methods that account for the effect of using the estimated response probability; they compare their performances in a small simulation study. They also discuss extensions to the regression estimator.     

Kernel-Based Profile Estimation for Ordinary Differential Equations with Partially Measured State Variables

Kernel-based profile estimation (KBPE) is proposed for the partially measured ODEs. Compared to the existing approaches the structure information contained in ODEs is used more efficiently in KBPE and no higher order derivatives need to be estimated form the measurements. Construction of confidence interval in finite samples setting for both parameters and state variables are also discussed. Simulation studies show that KBPE can estimate the partially measured ODEs reasonably when the ordinary two-step approach cannot apply. We also illustrate KBPE by a real data set from a clinical HIV study.     

陕西省人口与经济社会协调发展评价研究

人口与经济社会协调发展现状可用指标体系方法来综合评价,指标体系可分为两部分,一部分由人口与经济社会发展内部指标组成,另一部分由人口与经济发展外部指标,既资源环境指标组成。协调发展综合评价采用分层评价模型,模型中的系数根据指标体系的特点和各指标变异程度确定。     

OPTIMUM SINGULAR SPRING BALANCE WEIGHING DESIGNS WITH NON-HOMOGENEITY OF THE VARIANCES OF ERRORS FOR ESTIMATING THE TOTAL WEIGHT

The problem of estimation of the total weight of objects using a singular spring balance weighing design with non-homogeneity of the variances of errors has been dealt with in this paper. Based on a theorem by Katulska (1984) giving a lower bound for the variance of the estimated total weight, a necessary and sufficient condition for this lower bound to be attained is obtained. It is shown that weighing designs for which the the lower bound is attainable, can be constructed from the incidence matrices of (α₁,.,α_t)-resolvable block designs, α-resolvable block designs, singular group divisible designs, and semi-regular group divisible designs.     

Two step estimation for Neyman-Scott point process with inhomogeneous cluster centers

This paper is concerned with parameter estimation for the Neyman-Scott point process with inhomogeneous cluster centers. Inhomogeneity depends on spatial covariates. The regression parameters are estimated at the first step using a Poisson likelihood score function. Three estimation procedures (minimum contrast method based on a modified K function, composite likelihood and Bayesian methods) are introduced for estimation of clustering parameters at the second step. The performance of the estimation methods are studied and compared via a simulation study. This work has been motivated and illustrated by ecological studies of fish spatial distribution in an inland reservoir.     

Remove unwanted variation retrieves unknown experimental designs

Remove unwanted variation (RUV) is an estimation and normalization system in which the underlying correlation structure of a multivariate dataset is estimated from negative control measurements, typically gene expression values, which are assumed to stay constant across experimental conditions. In this paper we derive the weight matrix which is estimated and incorporated into the generalized least squares estimates of RUV-inverse, and show that this weight matrix estimates the average covariance matrix across negative control measurements. RUV-inverse can thus be viewed as an estimation method adjusting for an unknown experimental design. We show that for a balanced incomplete block design (BIBD), RUV-inverse recovers intra- and interblock estimates of the relevant parameters and combines them as a weighted sum just like the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE), except that the weights are globally estimated from the negative control measurements instead of being individually optimized to each measurement as in the classical, single measurement BIBD BLUE.     

Joint Modelling of Recurrent Infections and Antibody Response by Bayesian Data Augmentation

Abstract.  A joint dynamic model for the interdependence between infection, immunity and risk of disease is presented. Recurrent latent infections are modelled as realizations from a renewal process and antibody dynamics as a diffusion with a decreasing drift modified by the stimulating effect of the random infections. The augmented submodels are estimated simultaneously in one large Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. As an example, we consider the risk of recurrent ear infections when having only partially observed information on bacterial carriage and antibody concentrations.     

Reliability analysis of masked data in adaptive step-stress partially accelerated lifetime tests with progressive removal

By combining the progressive hybrid censoring with the step-stress partially accelerated lifetime test, we propose an adaptive step-stress partially accelerated lifetime test, which allows random changing of the number of step-stress levels according to the pre-fixed censoring number and time points. Thus, the time expenditure and economic cost of the test will be reduced greatly. Based on the Lindley-distributed tampered failure rate (TFR) model with masked system lifetime data, the BFGS method is introduced in the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to obtain the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), which overcomes the difficulties of the vague maximization procedure in the M-step. Asymptotic confidence intervals of components' distribution parameters are also investigated according to the missing information principle. As comparison, the Bayesian estimation and the highest probability density (HPD) credible intervals are obtained by using adaptive rejection sampling. Furthermore, the reliability of the system and components are estimated at a specified time under usual and severe operating conditions. Finally, a numerical simulation example is presented to illustrate the performance of our proposed method.     

Generalized discriminant analysis based on distances

This paper describes a method of generalized discriminant analysis based on a dissimilarity matrix to test for differences in a priori groups of multivariate observations. Use of classical multidimensional scaling produces a low‐dimensional representation of the data for which Euclidean distances approximate the original dissimilarities. The resulting scores are then analysed using discriminant analysis, giving tests based on the canonical correlations. The asymptotic distributions of these statistics under permutations of the observations are shown to be invariant to changes in the distributions of the original variables, unlike the distributions of the multi‐response permutation test statistics which have been considered by other workers for testing differences among groups. This canonical method is applied to multivariate fish assemblage data, with Monte Carlo simulations to make power comparisons and to compare theoretical results and empirical distributions. The paper proposes classification based on distances. Error rates are estimated using cross‐validation.     

Testing Serial Correlation in Semiparametric Varying-Coefficient Partially Linear Models

We propose two test statistics for testing serial correlation in semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear models. The proposed test statistics are not only for testing zero first-order serial correlation, but also for testing higher-order serial correlations. Under the null hypothesis of no serial correlation, the test statistics are shown to have asymptotic normal or chi-square distributions. By using R, some Monte Carlo experiments are conducted to examine the finite sample performances of the proposed tests. Simulation results show that the estimated size and power of the proposed tests behave well.