2008—2012年国际金融市场变化及规制分析——基于新制度经济学的视野

自2008年以来,欧洲与美国等经济发达的西方经济体相继爆发债务危机、信用危机,导致世界经济出现严重增长停滞,发展前景令整个社会堪忧。特别是如美国、希腊、意大利、西班牙、德国等原经济强国,更是债务危机进而金融危机令世人大跌眼镜。那么这些国家危机的背后,到底是什么样的问题所在,是表面上社会看到的国债发行危机、欧元经济体危机、金融问题,还是更深层次有关经济财富增长、制度认识和构建上的问题。欧美金融市场自二战以后的规制建设,经历了由"扶持"到"攫取"的深刻变化,其监管体系的内涵也发生了深刻变化。当前国际金融市场的动荡和不安,很大程度上是由于这些规制变化引起的。去其糟粕、吸其精华,是我们学习和借鉴西方金融规制时应坚持的态度。     

欧洲债务危机与中国社会养老保险制度改革——基于公共养老金替代率视角的分析

经济增长缓慢、人口老龄化、社会养老保障财政收支失衡与欧债危机密切相关.欧洲国家刚性的养老金替代率在人口持续老龄化和经济增长缓慢前提下必然导致养老金财政赤字不断扩大,国家财政债务危机不断升级.较高的养老金替代率实际上反映了代际负担的不可持续性,所以合适的养老金替代率的确定无论对世界还是对中国都具有重要意义.有鉴于此,未富先老的中国应该坚持带有生产主义特征的社会养老保障模式,构筑多支柱、多来源的退休金体系,适当降低基础养老金替代率,并构建养老金负担与给付的自动调整机制,从而保障养老金财政的长期平衡和社会保障制度的可持续发展.     

The role of parenthood in shaping the gender wage gap – A comparative analysis of 26 European countries

We use cross-national data on 26 EU countries to estimate how parenthood contributes to the gender wage gap, and assess how institutional elements affect this relationship. We find that irrespective of cultural norms and policies, fathers receive a wage premium, which increases the gender gap. Motherhood gaps vary across countries. The highest gaps are seen in Eastern European countries, where policies and norms lead to long absences from work. Moderate to small penalties are found in Continental Europe, Anglo-Saxon and Nordic countries, alongside higher maternal employment. No motherhood penalties are found for Southern EU countries, where mothers return to work quickly or exit the labor market indefinitely.     

基于成本效益分析法的中国国债绩效研究

债务已成为当今许多国家都要面对的问题,欧洲主权债务危机的爆发更是对现有的国债管理思想提出了严峻挑战。我国自1981年恢复国债发行以来,规模不断扩大,国债管理任务越来越艰巨。本文采用成本效益分析法,选取国债管理中的关键指标,对我国国债筹资成本控制绩效、金融绩效和宏观经济绩效进行了全面研究,发现我国自2000年以来国债成本控制绩效较好、金融绩效低下但宏观经济绩效表现良好。同时,本文还提出采用全面的绩效管理方法对我国国债实施管理,以便更好地让国债为经济社会发展服务。     

农村村级组织财务管理存在的问题与对策——对贵州省农村的实地调研分析

村级组织财务管理是社会主义新农村建设的重要内容,是完善农村公共产品融资机制的制度基础。对贵州省7个地州市9个县31个行政村的实地调研结果显示,贵州农村村级组织财务管理存在的主要问题是:会计基础工作薄弱,财务管理制度不规范;会计人员选聘机制不合理,人员素质亟待提高;民主监督职能弱化,审计监督乏力;村级债务较为严重等。为了切实提高农村村级组织财务管理水平,必须扎实推进"村财乡代管"制度,改革村级财务人员选任模式,健全民主理财监督制度,加强村级财务审计监督,并努力化解村级债务问题。     

欧洲主权债务危机与欧洲中央银行制度上的缺陷

中央银行最后贷款人职能是现代中央银行的一个重要职能,尤其在经济下降并发生市场恐慌时期,中央银行发挥这一职能是维持金融体系安全稳定的重要保障。由于欧洲中央银行缺乏这一职能,欧元区主权债务危机很难在短期内被彻底平息。欧盟只有进行改革,赋予欧洲中央银行这一职能,才能让其在解救欧元区高负债国家的债务危机中发挥更大的作用。同时,现代中央银行履行最后贷款人职能时,还必须遵循应有的原则以及处理好与中央银行货币政策目标的关系。     

我国粮食出口市场势力的实证分析——以玉米为例

本文以玉米为例并利用五个主要出口对象国的面板数据对我国粮食出口的市场势力进行了实证检验。研究结论显示,我国在韩国、日本和马来西亚玉米市场上不存在市场势力,在朝鲜和印度尼西亚市场上则存在一定的市场势力,而总体上我国玉米出口仅存在微弱的市场势力,很难获得玉米的国际市场定价权;2008年的金融危机对我国玉米出口价格产生了一定的冲击,但从回归系数和显著性水平上来看负面影响不大。进而从欧美发达国家出口垄断、国内玉米生产成本及我国玉米的价格贸易条件三个方面对我国玉米出口市场势力较弱的原因进行了分析,并提出了相应的对策建议。     

How the macroeconomic context impacts on attitudes to immigration: Evidence from within-country variation

This study investigates the effects of the macroeconomic context on attitudes to immigration. Earlier studies do in some cases not provide significant empirical support for the existence of important such effects. In this article it is argued that this lack of consistent evidence is mainly due to the cross-national setup of these studies being vulnerable to estimation bias caused by country-specific factors. The present study instead analyzes attitude variation within countries over time. The results provide firm empirical support in favor of macroeconomic variation importantly affecting attitudes to immigration. As an illustration, the estimates indicate that the number of individuals in the average European country in 2012 who were against all immigration from poorer countries outside Europe was 40% higher than it would have been if macroeconomic conditions in that year had been as good as they were in 2006.     

住房抵押贷款证券化对我国金融机构的影响

2007年美国房地产金融市场爆发了次贷危机并迅速波及全球金融市场,我国金融机构在受到波及和影响的同时,也应该借鉴美国金融模式的创新和先进之处。通过对其中住房抵押贷款证券化因素的分析和研究,提出我国推行资产证券化的必要性和可行性,也列举了推行过程中值得注意的若干问题。     

对债权客体的重新认识

债权客体是债务人自身而不是债务人的行为或财产。通说认为的债权客体是债务人的行为的观点,混淆了债权客体与债务的内容,是一种没有经过严格论证的错误观点。“债权客体是债务人”与“债务人是债的(法律关系的)主体”并不矛盾。“债权客体是债务人”既不会损害债务人的尊严,也不是导致债务人以死亡或破产的方式恶意逃债的必然原因。债权客体不同于给付的对象。     

Response effects to attitudinal questions about domestic violence against women: A comparative perspective

According to the national Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), between 10% and 90% of women in poorer countries agree that domestic violence against women is justified. Such wide variation in women’s responses raises concerns about the comparability of the underlying attitudinal question, and the validity of comparative research that assumes comparability. Using 67 DHS conducted in 48 countries between 1995 and 2007, we explored whether cross-national variation in women’s affirmative responses to this question were explained by cross-national variation in survey design, socioeconomic conditions, or both. Variation in survey design had considerable predictive power and accounted for a non-trivial amount of the variance in women’s affirmative responses. Including the survey-design variables also modestly altered associations of the outcome with structural variables of interest in comparative studies. These findings offer insights about future analyses and data collections on women’s attitudes about domestic violence against women.     

我国房地产资产证券化探讨

房地产资产证券化就是把房地产投资转化为资本市场上的证券资产的金融交易过程。本文首先对我国发展房地产资产证券化的必要性进行分析,接着研究我国房地产证券化的现状和发展障碍,最后结合次贷危机美国住房抵押贷款证券的经验教训,从金融体系、法律法规、中介服务机构和信用评级体系等方面提出健康发展中国房地产资产证券化的建议。     

金融创新时代的金融监管法制变革趋向——次贷危机的启示

过于激进的金融创新是此次次贷危机爆发、传导、扩大的重要动因。分析各国危机前后的金融监管法制状况,可以看出,金融创新时代的金融监管法制具有以下几个变革趋向:采取《金融服务法》等统一立法对金融商品进行横向规制;从机构监管到功能监管;从规则导向监管到原则导向监管;由经营者主权为中心到以消费者保护为中心。     

我国政府或有债务风险及预算管理

或有债务风险是世界各国在制定经济发展目标时特别关注及重视的问题。我国政府或有债务来源主要是生态环境治理和保护、社会保障资金缺口、政府担保以及金融机构的不良资产等等。我国必须加强对政府或有债务的管理,借鉴发达国家经验,建立面向全球经济的财政风险预算管理体制,从而减少或有债务风险对财政稳定性的冲击。     

美元的霸权性及其对全球利益博弈的影响

国际利益博弈源于国家之间需求的碰撞,自1970年代起,全球发展进入后工业社会阶段,美元作为世界货币,其表面的"美金→石油美元"转换后面,是美元信用来源的"实际财富抵押→暴力抵押"的转换;该转换带来了一个全新的世界格局,即"美元/全球资源资产"与"美元/美国国债"的双跷跷板结构。美元成为世界利益博弈的核心。2012年,美元进入第三个"17年大周期升浪"和临近"5年升值小周期",世界由此进入"美元升/全球资源资产贬"的格局之中。     

主权债务问题和国际货币体系变化的新趋势

国际金融危机以来,主要发达国家面临"高债务和高赤字"问题,财政状况不断恶化,主权债务问题导致主要国际货币大幅度波动,国际货币体系变得更加不稳定。国际金融危机使得美元主导国际货币体系的内在矛盾凸显,美元汇率的剧烈波动对全球经济的冲击较大,改革国际货币体系的呼声越来越高。目前美国财政赤字和债务水平仍然较高,未来美元汇率的不稳定性和不确定性仍然较大,"去美元化"将成为一种趋势,欧元、日元等货币都难以替代美元,国际货币体系的格局将朝多元化方向发展。新兴市场经济国家货币正在崛起,中国应该抓住机遇,稳步推进人民币国际化。     

What keeps young adults in permanent poverty? A comparative analysis using ECHP

Previous studies suggest that there are strong differences in the rates of youth poverty across European countries. Rather surprisingly, it is found to be high in Scandinavian countries, and relatively speaking, lower in Mediterranean and Anglo-Saxon countries. This somewhat unexpected finding prompts the question whether the incidence of poverty is an appropriate measure of youth disadvantage. Instead of considering poverty rates we consider the length of recorded poverty spells, taking into account explicitly the temporal sequencing of the episodes of poverty. Using the European Community Household Panel, individuals are classified into different groups of poverty permanence, each reflecting severity of social disadvantage. Based on these categories we implement a generalized ordinal logit model to assess the various factors associated with social disadvantage among youth. We find that cross-national patterns differ from those found in previous studies. In particular from our findings it does not result that poverty is highest among young people in Social Democratic countries. Our analysis shows important gender differences, though they are not the same across the countries included in the study. For some countries it turns out that being a woman is a protective factor against long-term poverty. As previous studies suggests, young individuals’ living arrangements matter.     

当代资本主义经济停滞问题:制度结构与治理危机——基于积累的社会结构理论的分析

关于经济停滞问题的探讨是对马克思主义经济危机理论的传承。2008年金融危机爆发十余年,资本主义经济停滞趋于常态化。积累的社会结构理论从资本积累与支撑这一积累的制度环境之间的矛盾出发,发现了主流经济学探讨资本主义经济停滞所忽略的制度性因素。积累的社会结构学派沿着"中间层次"的路径,将2008年金融危机界定为系统性的结构危机,认为新自由主义SSA的失灵是此次经济停滞持续的原因。资本主义经济停滞引发欧美发达资本主义国家的社会治理危机升级,一系列政治、社会和文化危机不断加剧。积累的社会结构理论从微观层面深刻把握了资本主义制度转型的轨迹,但并未深入探讨开展根本的制度变革。在面临百年未有之大变局的时代境遇下,中国在参与全球治理的过程中不断探索并推动世界经济政治新秩序朝着更加公正、合理的方向发展。     

Participation in international human rights NGOs: The effect of democracy and state capacity

This study examines the effect of the state on participation in human rights international non-governmental organizations (INGOs) from 1966 through 2006, using random effects negative binomial models. Civic participation in human rights INGOs is not responsive to human rights abuses of the state, but is affected by the institutional environment provided by the state. Two intertwined dimensions within the state, democracy and state capacity, are found to be important in explaining cross-national variation in this participation. Strong state capacity magnifies the effect of democracy. A strong democratic state generates the most favorable condition. A strong but authoritarian state, however, is the most unfavorable, because it has both the motive and the capacity to restrain its citizens’ global civic engagement. In contrast, an authoritarian but weak state lacks adequate capacity to intervene, and thus tolerates more participation than its strong counterpart. Over time differential participation across different types of states has not been diminished. This study reveals the role of the state in mediating between local citizens and global civil society, and develops a state-centered explanation for unequal participation in human rights INGOs across countries.     

基于VEC模型的国债发行额影响因素分析

本文基于VEC模型,并运用协积检验、格兰杰检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术,对我国国债发行额的影响因素进行实证分析。结果显示,我国国债发行额与国内生产总值（GDP）、财政赤字、国债还本付息、国债余额、居民储蓄和贷款余额存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,影响国债发行额的主要因素有国债发行额本身、国内生产总值（GDP）、财政赤字、居民储蓄和国债还本付息。