Improving Health Risk Assessment as a Basis for Public Health Decisions in the 21st Century

One-fifth of the way through the 21st century, a commonality of factors with those of the last 50 years may offer the opportunity to address unfinished business and current challenges. The recommendations include: (1) Resisting the tendency to oversimplify scientific assessments by reliance on single disciplines in lieu of clear weight-of-evidence expressions, and on single quantitative point estimates of health protective values for policy decisions; (2) Improving the separation of science and judgment in risk assessment through the use of clear expressions of the range of judgments that bracket protective quantitative levels for public health protection; (3) Use of comparative risk to achieve the greatest gains in health and the environment; and (4) Where applicable, reversal of the risk assessment and risk management steps to facilitate timely and substantive improvements in public health and the environment. Lessons learned and improvements in the risk assessment process are applied to the unprecedented challenges of the 21st century such as, pandemics and climate change. The beneficial application of the risk assessment and risk management paradigm to ensure timely research with consistency and transparency of assessments is presented. Institutions with mandated stability and leadership roles at the national and international levels are essential to ensure timely interdisciplinary scientific assessment at the interface with public policy as a basis for organized policy decisions, to meet time sensitive goals, and to inform the public.     

Health care's power brokers in the 21st Century. Interview by Donna Vavala

Health care has undergone turbulent change in the 20th Century. In addition to dramatic pharmaceutical and technological advances, the entire health care delivery system has been significantly improved. Through all the turmoil, hospitals have been at the center of the health care universe. But, as the 21st Century approaches, that may change, too. What will become of hospitals, which for most of this century have played a commanding role? Will managed care organizations and group practices come out on top? And, once the new power broker takes over, what will be the impact on providers, insurers, and the government, and how will their relationships to each other change? Jeff Goldsmith, PhD, President of Health Futures, Inc., Bannockburn, Ill., and health care futurist, examines tomorrow's health care delivery system and makes some eye-opening predictions.     

21世纪组织管理途径的探讨

组织管理及宏观经济决策等问题都十分复杂,其重要性也越来越为人们所认识．面临的 问题是今后解决这类问题进一步沿什么途径发展?值得注意的是：80年代末,在我国为处理开放的复杂巨系统,提出了“从定性到定量的综合集成法(metasynthesis)”,为组织管理与决策提供了方法论．同一时期,以美国圣塔菲研究所(SFI)为代表的一些学术团体以新的科学思维方法,开展了“复杂性(complexity)”的研究,提供了一些有启发性的科学见解与结果．本文对上述情况作扼要地介绍与讨论．     

Leading health care into the 21st century.

If there is a consistency in the professional lives of those who manage in the health care field, surely it is characterized by inconsistency. Change. For more nearly two decades now, since the full impact of the Medicare/Medicaid legislation hit, the health care industry has undergone profound, continual, and lasting change. Success can be measured largely in terms of how well a professional or an organization accommodates and manages these changes, making sure that they work for the organization and the career and not against them. The 1990s can be expected to be just as full of change and turmoil as have the past two decades. "What's past is prologue," Shakespeare wrote. The health care field is not apt to see the murderous machinations of The Tempest, but clearly exciting and challenging times lie ahead, and perhaps the outcome will be as positive as Shakespeare's. The scenario that follows provides a glimpse at the issues of change that will occupy the time and energy of physician executives for the coming decade.     

The American health system: a contentious environment in the 21st Century

In the 21st Century, the American public and its elected officials will be unable to reach any overall consensus on our nation's health policies and priorities. With greater demands for health services and fewer fiscal resources, a more contentious environment in the health industry will ensue. As the American health system in the next 100 years continues to behave with an amalgam of competitive and regulatory approaches, it will be difficult to ensure that all Americans will receive universal access, equity, comprehensive benefits, and a high quality of care. For these reasons, the health system is predicted later on to swing away from market-driven to more state-oriented regulatory strategies as the United States attempts to blend such concepts as pluralism, regionalization of resources, and enforcing cost containment.     

德鲁克论21世纪管理挑战——知识工作者生产率

彼得·德鲁克在新著中对知识工作者生产率作了考察,并指出个人与组织方面的基本态度上的变化以及工作本身的结构变化皆为增进生产率之必需.他解释了由于泰罗科学管理的应用而增进了发达国家手工工作者生产率是20世纪管理的最重要的贡献.他阐明了人们关于知识工作者生产率之所获知,并提出它的各项主要因素.他提出了“技术人员”(既是知识工作者又是手工工作者),并以实例说明使其有效的三个因素.他把知识工作者看成一个系统,并指出知识工作者与知识工作者生产率的出现对公司治理的意义.德鲁克强调,知识工作者生产率是21世纪管理的最大挑战.在发达国家,这是它们的第一生存需要.     

德鲁克论21世纪管理的挑战——变革领导者

我们无法驾驭变革,只能走在变革的前面。彼得·德鲁克提出在21世纪管理最大的挑战之一是使组织成为变革的领导者。在这里,他作了五个方面的论述：（1）变革的政策;（2）创造变革;（3）引航;（4）变革与连续性的平衡;（5）赢得未来。《21世纪管理挑战》一书中对变革领导者的这些要求,实质上是他对创新管理的全面论述,这无疑是德鲁克管理思想的精髓,对我国的创新管理具有一定的借鉴意义。     

德鲁克论21世纪管理挑战——信息挑战

彼得·德鲁克在其新著中解释,一个新信息革命正在进行中,它将彻底改变信息对企业和个人的意义。它不是技术革命,而是概念革命。至今,信息技术集中在数据,聚焦在“IT”中的“T”;新信息革命聚焦在“I”。 德鲁克论述了15世纪印刷技术的历史教训,对比了传统成本会计与基于活动的成本核算,说明企业需要的信息,具体提出了管理现行企业所需要的四套诊断工具与战略所要求的外部信息,明确了主观人员工作所需的信息观念,其形成必须由主管提出两个问题开始“我给什么?”“我要什么?”然后论述了组织信息问题,提出若干方法学概念。德鲁克敦促企业与个人必须学会组织信息作为它们的关键性资源,以迎接21世纪的管理挑战。     

智力资本:21世纪旅游饭店战略竞争力的源泉

本文从21世纪旅游饭店战略竞争力角度出发,运用核心能力理论分析饭店持久竞争优势的来源将是对智力资本的开发、利用与保护,这不仅是时代发展的需要,也是饭店业竞争加剧的必然结果.文章还结合智力资本的内容对其作用的更好发挥提出了几点建议.     

品牌经营21世纪中国饭店业的战略选择

跨入21世纪,中国饭店业将面临一个感性消费的时代、知识经济的时代、全球经济一体化的时代和微利时代.这些时代特征决定中国的饭店业将步入以客人的满意度、忠诚度和企业的知名度、美誉度为中心的品牌经营时代,中国的饭店业只有加强品牌建设,实施品牌经营战略,才能创造优势,增强竞争能力.