Asymptotic properties of one-step M-estimators

We study the asymptotic behavior of one-step M-estimators based on not necessarily independent identically distributed observations. In particular, we find conditions for asymptotic normality of these estimators. Asymptotic normality of one-step M-estimators is proven under a wide spectrum of constraints on the exactness of initial estimators. We discuss the question of minimal restrictions on the exactness of initial estimators. We also discuss the asymptotic behavior of the solution to an M-equation closest to the parameter under consideration. As an application, we consider some examples of one-step approximation of quasi-likelihood estimators in nonlinear regression.     

Estimation of the shape parameter of a Pareto distribution

We consider the problem of estimating the shape parameter of a Pareto distribution with unknown scale under an arbitrary strictly bowl-shaped loss function. Classes of estimators improving upon minimum risk equivariant estimator are derived by adopting Stein, Brown, and Kubokawa techniques. The classes of estimators are shown to include some known procedures such as Stein-type and Brewster and Zidek-type estimators from literature. We also provide risk plots of proposed estimators for illustration purpose.     

Parameter estimation of three-parameter Weibull distribution based on progressively Type-II censored samples

In this paper, the estimation of parameters for a three-parameter Weibull distribution based on progressively Type-II right censored sample is studied. Different estimation procedures for complete sample are generalized to the case with progressively censored data. These methods include the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs), corrected MLEs, weighted MLEs, maximum product spacing estimators and least squares estimators. We also proposed the use of a censored estimation method with one-step bias-correction to obtain reliable initial estimates for iterative procedures. These methods are compared via a Monte Carlo simulation study in terms of their biases, root mean squared errors and their rates of obtaining reliable estimates. Recommendations are made from the simulation results and a numerical example is presented to illustrate all of the methods of inference developed here.     

On Rates of Convergence for Bayesian Density Estimation

Abstract.  We consider the problem of estimating a compactly supported density taking a Bayesian nonparametric approach. We define a Dirichlet mixture prior that, while selecting piecewise constant densities, has full support on the Hellinger metric space of all commonly dominated probability measures on a known bounded interval. We derive pointwise rates of convergence for the posterior expected density by studying the speed at which the posterior mass accumulates on shrinking Hellinger neighbourhoods of the sampling density. If the data are sampled from a strictly positive, α -Hölderian density, with α  ∈ ( 0,1] , then the optimal convergence rate n^{− α / (2 α +1)} is obtained up to a logarithmic factor. Smoothing histograms by polygons, a continuous piecewise linear estimator is obtained that for twice continuously differentiable, strictly positive densities satisfying boundary conditions attains a rate comparable up to a logarithmic factor to the convergence rate n ^−4/5 for integrated mean squared error of kernel type density estimators.     

Markov switching model of nonlinear autoregressive with skew-symmetric innovations

We consider data generating structures which can be represented as a Markov switching of nonlinear autoregressive model with considering skew-symmetric innovations such that switching between the states is controlled by a hidden Markov chain. We propose semi-parametric estimators for the nonlinear functions of the proposed model based on a maximum likelihood (ML) approach and study sufficient conditions for geometric ergodicity of the process. Also, an Expectation-Maximization type optimization for obtaining the ML estimators are presented. A simulation study and a real world application are also performed to illustrate and evaluate the proposed methodology.     

A comparison of some robust,adaptive, and partially adaptive estimators of regression models

Numerous estimation techniques for regression models have been proposed. These procedures differ in how sample information is used in the estimation procedure. The efficiency of least squares (OLS) estimators implicity assumes normally distributed residuals and is very sensitive to departures from normality, particularly to "outliers" and thick-tailed distributions. Lead absolute deviation (LAD) estimators are less sensitive to outliers and are optimal for laplace random disturbances, but not for normal errors. This paper reports monte carlo comparisons of OLS,LAD, two robust estimators discussed by huber, three partially adaptiveestimators, newey's generalized method of moments estimator, and an adaptive maximum likelihood estimator based on a normal kernal studied by manski. This paper is the first to compare the relative performance of some adaptive robust estimators (partially adaptive and adaptive procedures) with some common nonadaptive robust estimators. The partially adaptive estimators are based on three flxible parametric distributions for the errors. These include the power exponential (Box-Tiao) and generalized t distributions, as well as a distribution for the errors, which is not necessarily symmetric. The adaptive procedures are "fully iterative" rather than one step estimators. The adaptive estimators have desirable large sample properties, but these properties do not necessarily carry over to the small sample case.

The monte carlo comparisons of the alternative estimators are based on four different specifications for the error distribution: a normal, a mixture of normals (or variance-contaminated normal), a bimodal mixture of normals, and a lognormal. Five hundred samples of 50 are used. The adaptive and partially adaptive estimators perform very well relative to the other estimation procedures considered, and preliminary results suggest that in some important cases they can perform much better than OLS with 50 to 80% reductions in standard errors.

     

A comparison of some robust, adaptive, and partially adaptive estimators of regression models

Numerous estimation techniques for regression models have been proposed. These procedures differ in how sample information is used in the estimation procedure. The efficiency of least squares (OLS) estimators implicity assumes normally distributed residuals and is very sensitive to departures from normality, particularly to "outliers" and thick-tailed distributions. Lead absolute deviation (LAD) estimators are less sensitive to outliers and are optimal for laplace random disturbances, but not for normal errors. This paper reports monte carlo comparisons of OLS,LAD, two robust estimators discussed by huber, three partially adaptiveestimators, newey's generalized method of moments estimator, and an adaptive maximum likelihood estimator based on a normal kernal studied by manski. This paper is the first to compare the relative performance of some adaptive robust estimators (partially adaptive and adaptive procedures) with some common nonadaptive robust estimators. The partially adaptive estimators are based on three flxible parametric distributions for the errors. These include the power exponential (Box-Tiao) and generalized t distributions, as well as a distribution for the errors, which is not necessarily symmetric. The adaptive procedures are "fully iterative" rather than one step estimators. The adaptive estimators have desirable large sample properties, but these properties do not necessarily carry over to the small sample case.

The monte carlo comparisons of the alternative estimators are based on four different specifications for the error distribution: a normal, a mixture of normals (or variance-contaminated normal), a bimodal mixture of normals, and a lognormal. Five hundred samples of 50 are used. The adaptive and partially adaptive estimators perform very well relative to the other estimation procedures considered, and preliminary results suggest that in some important cases they can perform much better than OLS with 50 to 80% reductions in standard errors.     

An adaptive approach to Langevin MCMC

We consider a class of adaptive MCMC algorithms using a Langevin-type proposal density. We state and prove regularity conditions for the convergence of these algorithms. In addition to these theoretical results we introduce a number of methodological innovations that can be applied much more generally. We assess the performance of these algorithms with simulation studies, including an example of the statistical analysis of a point process driven by a latent log-Gaussian Cox process.     

Time series models with asymmetric innovations

We consider AR(q) models in time series with asymmetric innovations represented by two families ofdistributions: (i) gamma with support IR : (0, ∞), and (ii) generalized logistic with support IR:(-∞,∞). Since the ML (maximum likelihood) estimators are intractable, we derive the MML (modified maximum likelihood) estimators of the parameters and show that they are remarkably efficient besides being easy to compute. We investigate the efficiency properties of the classical LS (least squares) estimators. Their efficiencies relative to the proposed MML estimators are very low.     

Estimating the negative binomial dispersion parameter with highly stratified surveys

We investigate several estimators of the negative binomial (NB) dispersion parameter for highly stratified count data for which the statistical model has a separate mean parameter for each stratum. If the number of samples per stratum is small then the model is highly parameterized and the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the NB dispersion parameter can be biased and inefficient. Some of the estimators we investigate include adjustments for the number of mean parameters to reduce bias. We extend other estimators that were developed for the iid case, to reduce bias when there are many mean parameters. We demonstrate using simulations that an adjusted double extended quasi-likelihood estimator we proposed gives much improved estimates compared to the MLE. Adjusted extended quasi-likelihood and adjusted maximum likelihood estimators also give much-improved results. We illustrate the various estimators with stratified random bottom trawl survey data for cod (Gadus morhua) off the south coast of Newfoundland, Canada.     

Nonparametric estimation of a survival function under progressive Type-I multistage censoring

Failure time data subject to three progressive Type-I multistage censoring schemes are studied. Product limit estimators are proposed for the estimation of the survival function. It is shown that the resulting estimators are asymptotically equivalent to the corresponding estimators where the data are subject to a random iid right censoring scheme. Many well-known results on confidence bands and tests for randomly right censored data hold for these progressive censoring schemes.     

Variance bounds for estimators in autoregressive models with constraints

We consider nonlinear and heteroscedastic autoregressive models whose residuals are martingale increments with conditional distributions that fulfil certain constraints. We treat two classes of constraints: residuals depending on the past through some function of the past observations only, and residuals that are invariant under some finite group of transformations. We determine the efficient influence function for estimators of the autoregressive parameter in such models, calculate variance bounds, discuss information gains, and suggest how to construct efficient estimators. Without constraints, efficient estimators can be given by weighted least squares estimators. With the constraints considered here, efficient estimators are obtained differently, as one-step improvements of some initial estimator, similarly as in autoregressive models with independent increments.     

Inference for the extreme value distribution under progressive Type-II censoring

The extreme value distribution has been extensively used to model natural phenomena such as rainfall and floods, and also in modeling lifetimes and material strengths. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for the parameters of the extreme value distribution leads to likelihood equations that have to be solved numerically, even when the complete sample is available. In this paper, we discuss point and interval estimation based on progressively Type-II censored samples. Through an approximation in the likelihood equations, we obtain explicit estimators which are approximations to the MLEs. Using these approximate estimators as starting values, we obtain the MLEs using an iterative method and examine numerically their bias and mean squared error. The approximate estimators compare quite favorably to the MLEs in terms of both bias and efficiency. Results of the simulation study, however, show that the probability coverages of the pivotal quantities (for location and scale parameters) based on asymptotic normality are unsatisfactory for both these estimators and particularly so when the effective sample size is small. We, therefore, suggest the use of unconditional simulated percentage points of these pivotal quantities for the construction of confidence intervals. The results are presented for a wide range of sample sizes and different progressive censoring schemes. We conclude with an illustrative example.     

Estimation of the Jump Size Density in a Mixed Compound Poisson Process

In this paper, we consider a mixed compound Poisson process, that is, a random sum of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables where the number of terms is a Poisson process with random intensity. We study nonparametric estimators of the jump density by specific deconvolution methods. Firstly, assuming that the random intensity has exponential distribution with unknown expectation, we propose two types of estimators based on the observation of an i.i.d. sample. Risks bounds and adaptive procedures are provided. Then, with no assumption on the distribution of the random intensity, we propose two non‐parametric estimators of the jump density based on the joint observation of the number of jumps and the random sum of jumps. Risks bounds are provided, leading to unusual rates for one of the two estimators. The methods are implemented and compared via simulations.     

Estimating the parameters of the linear compartment model

In this paper we consider the linear compartment model and consider the estimation procedures of the different parameters. We discuss a method to obtain the initial estimators, which can be used for any iterative procedures to obtain the least-squares estimators. Four different types of confidence intervals have been discussed and they have been compared by computer simulations. We propose different methods to estimate the number of components of the linear compartment model. One data set has been used to see how the different methods work in practice.     

Estimation in conditional first order autoregression with discrete support

We consider estimation in the class of first order conditional linear autoregressive models with discrete support that are routinely used to model time series of counts. Various groups of estimators proposed in the literature are discussed: moment-based estimators; regression-based estimators; and likelihood-based estimators. Some of these have been used previously and others not. In particular, we address the performance of new types of generalized method of moments estimators and propose an exact maximum likelihood procedure valid for a Poisson marginal model using backcasting. The small sample properties of all estimators are comprehensively analyzed using simulation. Three situations are considered using data generated with: a fixed autoregressive parameter and equidispersed Poisson innovations; negative binomial innovations; and, additionally, a random autoregressive coefficient. The first set of experiments indicates that bias correction methods, not hitherto used in this context to our knowledge, are some-times needed and that likelihood-based estimators, as might be expected, perform well. The second two scenarios are representative of overdispersion. Methods designed specifically for the Poisson context now perform uniformly badly, but simple, bias-corrected, Yule-Walker and least squares estimators perform well in all cases.     

A monte carlo comparison of regression trimmed means

Two proposals are made for constructing adaptive estimators of the parameters in a linear regression model. These estimators are based on regression trimmed means and use an idea of Jaeckel [(1971) Ann Math Statist 42, 1540-1552] and the bootstrap respectively. These adaptive trimmed means as well as some nonadaptive trimmed means are studied by Monte Carlo. A one-step biweight is also included for comparison purposes.     

Reweighting approximate GM estimators: Asymptotics and residual-based graphics

The iterative weighted least squares algorithm is handy for solving generalized estimating equations. In some situations it may be desirable to limit the number of iterations to a fixed finite number, for instance, to keep the breakdown point under control. Such a scheme is called reweighting. Usually reweighting leads to a different large sample theory than full iteration, and the reweighted estimator may inherit deficiencies of the starting value. When might the reweighting scheme work? To answer this question we define a broad class of estimators, namely, approximate GM estimators, and we show that reweighting leads to the same large sample theory as full iteration within this class. As an example, we provide conditions under which one-step Newton-Raphson estimators are approximate GM estimators. We then use the reweighting to construct residual-based graphics for approximate GM estimates, adapting weighted residual plots that have been proposed previously, and developing new plots to provide complementary views of the data.     

Shrinkage estimation in lognormal regression model for censored data

We introduce in this paper, the shrinkage estimation method in the lognormal regression model for censored data involving many predictors, some of which may not have any influence on the response of interest. We develop the asymptotic properties of the shrinkage estimators (SEs) using the notion of asymptotic distributional biases and risks. We show that if the shrinkage dimension exceeds two, the asymptotic risk of the SEs is strictly less than the corresponding classical estimators. Furthermore, we study the penalty (LASSO and adaptive LASSO) estimation methods and compare their relative performance with the SEs. A simulation study for various combinations of the inactive predictors and censoring percentages shows that the SEs perform better than the penalty estimators in certain parts of the parameter space, especially when there are many inactive predictors in the model. It also shows that the shrinkage and penalty estimators outperform the classical estimators. A real-life data example using Worcester heart attack study is used to illustrate the performance of the suggested estimators.     

LASSO and shrinkage estimation in Weibull censored regression models

In this paper we address the problem of estimating a vector of regression parameters in the Weibull censored regression model. Our main objective is to provide natural adaptive estimators that significantly improve upon the classical procedures in the situation where some of the predictors may or may not be associated with the response. In the context of two competing Weibull censored regression models (full model and candidate submodel), we consider an adaptive shrinkage estimation strategy that shrinks the full model maximum likelihood estimate in the direction of the submodel maximum likelihood estimate. We develop the properties of these estimators using the notion of asymptotic distributional risk. The shrinkage estimators are shown to have higher efficiency than the classical estimators for a wide class of models. Further, we consider a LASSO type estimation strategy and compare the relative performance with the shrinkage estimators. Monte Carlo simulations reveal that when the true model is close to the candidate submodel, the shrinkage strategy performs better than the LASSO strategy when, and only when, there are many inactive predictors in the model. Shrinkage and LASSO strategies are applied to a real data set from Veteran's administration (VA) lung cancer study to illustrate the usefulness of the procedures in practice.