Temporary vs. permanent migration: a decision theoretical approach

"The decision problem of the guest worker as a target saver is considered. He plans to accumulate capital in the host country for investment in the home country after return migration. As the worker is supposed to be incompletely informed about the economic variables in the host country he might prolong his stay unexpectedly provided the economic conditions in the host country are unfavourable. Explicit conditions for the economic variables are given such that temporary migration turns into permanent migration."     

Policy and non-policy economic determinants of inter-regional migration of workers in a developing country: Some new evidence based on a polytomous logit model for India

This paper utilises the framework of a Polytomous Logit Model for analysing and testing the economic behaviour of worker migrants between different regions (states) in India. The model is estimated, perhaps for the first time in India, with policy and non-policy economic variables, using 1971 Population (migration) Census data. The empirical results with regard to policy variables provide new evidence that federal transfers have resource (labour) allocation effects rather than pure income redistribution effects and that workers move from high tax regions to low tax regions. The results support the familiar Tiebout hypothesis and argue for an inter-regional migration policy for India as well as for other developing countries.     

At home with strangers: social exclusion and intimate labor in Anthony Chen’s Ilo Ilo (2013)

In Singapore, many middle-class families employ foreign domestic workers (FDWs) to take on care and domestic work. In this setup, female FDWs need to be “a part of the family” and “feel at home” to better perform and render intimate labor, but they are structurally displaced and prevented from being fully integrated in both their employer’s homes and in the host country. Ilo Ilo (2013), a debut film by a Singaporean director Anthony Chen, has poignantly portrayed this paradoxical relationship by showing a young boy’s growing affection to his Filipina maid, and how this brief yet enduring bond demonstrates migration’s effects on both the foreign helpers and the middle-class families employing them. This Singaporean family melodrama depicts the affective nature of migration by demonstrating how FDWs are positioned as an intimate yet excluded figure inside the employer’s homes. The contradiction between intimacy and social exclusion seen in the film also simultaneously describes and prescribes the FDW’s place in the host country. The film illustrates the paradox of intimacy and exclusion in the host–guest worker relationship of employers and their maids within the private domains of household and the public discourse on FDWs’ claims in Singapore.     

Return migration of foreign students and non-resident tuition fees

This paper challenges the notion that optimal non-resident tuition fees should necessarily be raised if the return rate of foreign students after graduation increases. The analysis of a host country’s optimal pricing behavior therefore incorporates a specific student migration model. Students usually are aware of the fact that they might return to their home countries after being educated abroad, even if they initially intended to stay on in the host country. With rational expectations, a change in students’ perceptions of the return probability after graduation can affect their first-round decisions whether to study abroad. The optimal adjustment of non-resident tuition fees in the host country has to take this behavioral response into account. Under certain conditions, the behavioral effect is dominant, and a decline in stay rates of students actually requires tuition fee cuts.     

Length of residence,social ties,and economic opportunities

This study examines length of residence for movers—that subsection of the population which accounts for the high mobility rates in the United States. The propensity for repeated migration is studied in relation to economic opportunities and previous familial and personal contacts. The results indicate no influence of economic opportunities on duration of residence. This finding is consistent with recent research that indicates economic conditions are not a general stimulus for out-migration, although they are for in-migration. On the other hand, length of residence is found to be longer where previous familial and personal contacts existed. Overall, the results provide additional evidence of the importance of social, as opposed to strictly economic, variables in the migration process.     

解决跨国劳动力养老保险权益可携性问题的国际经验借鉴

随着经济全球化不断深入,劳动力跨国流动将越来越频繁,反过来它将有助于全球经济合作和一体化。对跨国劳动力进行社会保护的重要性由此也更加突出,其中解决好养老保险权益可携性问题将可以实现劳动力输出国、输入国和劳动者之间的三赢。全球不同国家已经对跨国劳动力的养老保险问题做出规定,并在多边或双边层次上展开合作,已经取得了一些较好的经验。我国作为一个劳动力资源大国和经济大国,劳动力跨国流动的规模将不断扩大,也需要高度重视跨国养老权益的保护。     

The effects of development on migration: Theoretical issues and new empirical evidence

Empirical research on the determinants of emigration from the LDCs has so far given little emphasis to the complex relationship of development and migration. Since the beginning of the 1990s several arguments have been put forth which hint at the possibility that in the early stages of development economic progress might lead to more migration, even if income differentials to the potential destination regions decrease. This paper presents these arguments and tests them for the case of migration to Germany from 86 Asian and African countries from 1981 to 1995. The results confirm the importance of financial restrictions on migration, migration networks, and changes in the societal structure of the sending countries as well as the existence of a home preference. The estimations also control for the political situation in the home countries and for institutional measures in the host country. Received: 18 May 1998/Accepted: 6 March 2000     

Earnings adjustment of temporary migrants

The strong incentives of migrants to invest into human capital and the positive selective character of migration are the main explanations for the rapid decrease of the earnings gap between migrants and natives, and, in some cases, the cross-over of migrants' earings profiles with those of native workers, as found in a variety of empirical studies on migration to the USA, Canada and Australia. The present paper shows that in the case of temporary migration the optimal investment into country specific human capital should be lower than in the case of permanent migration. Investments may not be sufficient to allow migrants' earnings to catch up with those of native workers. Furthermore, it is shown that migration is positively selective only under certain labor market conditions. Empirical findings support the hypothesis that the migrant's length of stay in the host country has an effect on his investment into human capital and, consequently, on his earnings position. The results strongly suggest the need for carefully differentiating between temporary and permanent migration when investigating migrants' learnings assimilation.I am grateful to Augustin Maravall, John Micklewright, Graham Mizon, Christoph M. Schmidt, Dennis Snower and two referees for comments and suggestions made on previous drafts of this paper. All remaining errors are, of course, mine.     

International factor mobility and production technology

The present paper systematically investigates the pattern and effect of international factor mobility caused by international differences of production technology in an endogenous-population-growth and overlapping-generations model. We show here that if the autarkic steady state in each country is characterized by under-investment relative to the Golden Rule, international labour migration will take place to the country with a more capital-saving or a neutrally superior technology, and then the capital-labour ratio and the demand for children per family in that country will be lower. On the other hand, international capital will move to the country with a more labour-saving or a neutrally superior technology and will decrease the per worker domestic capital stock in that country.I am very grateful to Professor Murray C. Kemp and two anonymous referees for valuable comments and discussion.     

农村劳动力迁移问题的政策思考--基于迁移者角色的定位研究

本文就劳动力迁移理论提出了一种新的研究方法劳动力迁移者的角色定位.文章分别把迁移者定位于劳动力的供给者、人力资本的投资者、地区商品的消费者和家庭的生产者.文章在每一部分,首先介绍了各角色定位的模型,然后通过分析找出目前中国可能影响劳动力迁移的因素,并在此基础上,提出政策建议.文章结论是,城乡分割的户籍制度是阻碍劳动力迁移的根本原因,在逐步放松户籍管理制度的同时,给农民工以国民待遇是我们制定所有政策的根本.     

Deciphering the ‘Ethnic Penalty’ of Immigrants in Western Europe: A Cross-Classified Multilevel Analysis

While most previous research on immigrants’ assimilation refers to the residual disadvantage that remains in empirical analyses of economic outcomes as a general ‘ethnic penalty’, this current paper disentangles the ‘ethnic penalty’ by dividing it into four components: individual characteristics, country characteristics, the social environment in host country, and the policy environment in host country. This study tests the effects of these four components on three economic outcomes: employment, labor force participation, and household income. Data from the European Social Survey, the Migrant Integration Policy Index, the UN, and the World Bank are integrated here. Findings show that the main reasons for immigrants’ disadvantage in terms of labor force participation and household income are both origin and host country characteristics, while the effects of ethnic origins, social exclusion, and policies are weaker. However, ethnic origins and social exclusion actually play a central role in determining unemployment of immigrants.     

You can go home again: Evidence from longitudinal data

In this paper we analyze the economic and demographic factors that influence return migration, focusing on generation 1.5 immigrants. Using longitudinal data from the 1979 youth cohort of the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLSY79), we track residential histories of young immigrants to the United States and analyze the covariates associated with return migration to their home country. Overall, return migration appears to respond to economic incentives, as well as to cultural and linguistic ties to the United States and the home country. We find no role for welfare magnets in the decision to return, but we learn that welfare participation leads to lower probability of return migration. Finally, we see no evidence of a skill bias in return migration, where skill is measured by performance on the Armed Forces Qualifying Test.     

Determinants of off-farm work and temporary migration in China

Existing research inadequately explains the factors that drive temporary internal migration in China. Using data for 2005 drawn from 1,903 households in 43 rural villages, we calculate binomial and multinomial logit (BL, MNL) models of probabilities that an adult belongs to one of three categories of worker—on-farm, off-farm, or temporary migrant—as a function of individual and household characteristics. We control for village fixed effects, paying close attention to male/female differences. Nearly all coefficients—even for village dummies—vary significantly by sex. For two variables—age and schooling—the relationships are non-linear. There is an optimal age and amount of schooling that maximizes the probability that a worker will be employed away from the family farm. For schooling, this is low, suggesting that educated workers are underemployed. This might indicate that schooling beyond primary grades is poor quality, or at least inappropriate for the job market.     

The determinants of migration between standard metropolitan statistical areas

The primary purpose of this paper is to analyze the “determinants” of migration between Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA’s) in the United States. The magnitudes in which various factors have influenced inter-SMSA migration are estimated both for the country as a whole and for individual SMSA’s. The “migration elasticities” estimated for individual SMSA’s are in turn used to test several additional hypotheses concerning migrant behavior. Other similar migration studies have found “wrong” signs or insignificant coefficients on certain variables a priori thought to play a crucial role in the migration process. Finally, we present clues to the causes of such “surprising” results.     

A comparative study of successful aging in three Asian countries

The purpose of this research is to examine successful aging in three Asian countries, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand, using data from the WHO regional studies of Health and Social Aspects of Aging. Successful aging is defined as having no ADL difficulties, and at most, one Nagi difficulty. For the most part, the results are similar to those using more developed populations in that gender, age, no morbid conditions, positive attitude toward one's own aging and the ability to manage money are all correlated with successful aging. An interesting finding is that for the least developed country, Indonesia, being an unskilled worker is significantly associated with increased odds for successful aging. The final section of the paper discusses the theoretical implications regarding a disability transition for elderly populations as countries develop. We also focus on the current political and economic situations in the countries under study, and consider the possible impacts on elderly health.     

Subsequent Migration of Immigrants Within Australia, 1981–2016

Australia is a major immigration country and immigrants currently represent around 28% of the total population. The aim of this research is to understand the long-term consequences of this immigration and, particularly, how migrants respond to opportunities within the country after arriving through the process of subsequent (internal) migration. The focus is on major immigrant groups in Australia, including persons born in the United Kingdom, New Zealand, China and India, and how their patterns differ from persons born in Australia. To conduct this analysis, we have gathered data for a 35-year period based on quinquennial census data. We also obtained birthplace-specific mortality data for constructing multiregional life tables for the immigrant populations. Subsequent migration is important for understanding population redistribution, and the relative attractiveness of destinations within host countries. Our results highlight the importance of subsequent migration and the diversity of migration behaviours amongst different immigrant groups in the context of overall declines in internal migration since 1981.     

Circular and Repeat Migration: Counts of Exits and Years Away from the Host Country

The importance of repeat and circular migration starts receiving rising recognition. The paper studies this behavior by analyzing the number of exits and the total number of years away from the host country using count data models and panel data from the German guestworker experience. Beyond the myth, more than 60% of migrants in the sample from the guestworker countries living in Germany are indeed repeat or circular migrants. Migrants from European Union member countries, those not owning a dwelling in Germany, the younger and the older (excluding the middle-aged), are significantly more likely to engage in repeat migration and to stay out for longer. Males and those migrants with German passports exit more frequently, while those with higher education exit less; there are no differences with time spent out. Migrants with family in the home country remain out longer, and those closely attached to the labor market remain less; they are not leaving the country more frequently.     

Political instability and illegal immigration

Economic theory suggests that transnational migration results from the push-pull effect of wage differentials between host and source countries. In this paper, we argue that political instability exacerbates the migration flow, with greater instability leading to relatively larger flows. We conclude then that an optimal solution to the illegal immigration problem requires proper coordination of immigration and foreign policies by the host country. A narrow preoccupation with tougher immigration laws is wasteful and may be marginally effective.The authors wish to acknowledge an anonymous referee for very helpful comments and suggestions. The research of Donald Lien is, in part, supported by a grant from The University of Kansas, GRF 3281-XX 0038.     

“趋利性”与新生代农村劳动力供给研究——基于哈里斯·托达罗模型的理论探析

伴随着后金融危机时代的到来,"民工荒"一直困扰着国内发达城市特别是东部沿海一带的中小企业发展,2011年初"民工荒"再度成为了全民关注的焦点,为此政府以及相关学者不断探求解决该问题的方法途径,以维持我国工业经济有序发展。本文基于哈里斯.托达罗模型的理论精神,通过扩展修正,借助于我国劳动力市场的特殊现状来研究阻碍新生代农民工城乡迁移的致因,并通过劳动力供给曲线从两个角度来阐析新生代农村劳动力供给问题。