中国第四次人口普查资料中死亡指标方法探讨

1990年中国成功地进行了第四次人口普查。这次普查数据,对于了解中国的国情、制订囪民经济和社会发展计划具有重要的作用。人口普查之后,继手工汇总数据的发表,最近人口普查办又公布了10％电子计算机汇总资料,100％电子计算机汇总结果也将发表。所以我们今后的工作,一是如何充分利用普查结果,二是如何对普查资料进行深开发和再加工。本     

美国的国情普查制度及其对我国有何借鉴

国情普查就是由政府授权的机构按照预定的计划,在规定的时间内,对一国的情况进行普遍的调查与统计,为国家提供全面系统的国情资料。一个国家的国情如何,除了依靠经常性的统计资料来说明以外,还须借助国情普查资料。统计资料需要普查资料来校正自己的准确性;普查资料要依靠统计资料来保持自己在时间上的连续性。二者互相依赖,互为补充,共同说明一个国家的国情。国情普查与国情统计是同样重要的,不可忽视、不可缺少的。特别是在现代条件下,尽可能准确地掌握和认识国情及其变化,是一个国家管理好自己的社会经济,并使其顺利发展的先决条件。当今全世界已有208个国家和地区进行了以人口普查为中心的全面的或部分项目的国情普查,都是为了更确切更全面系统地认识自己的国情。其中美国在190年内已进行了20次以人口普查为中心的定期的国情普查,它的普查制度逐步发展完善,提供越来越丰富广泛的国情资料,很值得我们深入研究,从中学到某些对我们有益的东西。     

香港人口普查数据开发使用模式对大陆的借鉴意义

人口普查是一次规模空前的国情国力大调查 ,投入了大量人力物力 ,取得了全面翔实的人口社会经济信息。如何开发利用这些得来不易的宝贵资料 ,牵扯到人口普查资料的管理、使用方式的界定、资料的开发模式以及相应的法律建设等一系列问题。香港在人口普查数据开发使用上的信息提供、法律建设、实际操作的规范性管理上积累了一定的经验 ,可供我们借鉴和学习。     

人口普查是人口情报的重要来源

<正> 一、人口普查的意义人口普查是关于人口数量和人口构成资料的基本来源,人口调查的结果具有重要的政治、经济和科学意义。列宁曾经指出:《人口调查资料对共和国来说,无论是生产计划组织,或是苏维埃政权都是必须的”。在发达的社会主义社会里,完整而准确的人口情报,为全面管理社会生活提供了重要的原始资料。     

人口普查资料的汇总与分析

一、人口普查资料汇总是普查的一个重要阶段 人口普查就整个过程来说,可分为四个阶段:准备阶段(包括制定方案、进行试点、培训普查人员、宣传群众等)、登记阶段,普查汇总阶段和普查资料分析阶段。现在,第三次全国人口普查已经完成了两个阶段,整个工作已转入第三个阶段,即普查资料汇总阶段,这是一个非常重要的阶段,也可以说是有决定意义的阶段。因为,普查的目的是为了取得反映国情国力的人口数据,单是登记了,还不等于拿到数据,不进行普查资料汇总,普查登记的各种情况是无法直接使用的。只有把各个项目分门别类进行归纳整理,得到数字指标,才能给各方面提供制定政策、编制计划、兴办各项事业、研究人口发展状况的可靠依据。     

广泛动员社会力量 确保第四次人口普查圆满成功

一、进行人口普查的意义:人口普查是一种大规模的国情国力调查,是世界各国广泛采用的搜集有关人口资料的最基本的科学方法。新中国成立之后,我国已于1953年、1964年和1982年进行过三次全国人口普查,总观三次全国人口普查的年份,使我们得到一个概念,即每当政府要大力发展社会生产力,确定经济建设的布署和规划的时候,就需要摸清我国的基本国情之一的人口状况,必然要进行全国人口普查,这本身就显著地说明了这项国情国力调     

1990年第四次全国人口普查的意义、特点和基本做法

人口普查是重大的国情国力调查,是科学治国和科学决策的重大措施之一。在完成1982年第三次人口普查以后,国务院确定今后每十年进行一次人口普查,在年号末位逢零年份举行。1990年7月1日将进行第四次全国人口普查。1989年10月25日李鹏总理以国务院第45号令发布了《第四次全国人口普查办法》。1989年12月8日,召开了第四次全国人口普查工作会议。人门普查的各项准备工作现正在全国范围内紧张地进行。     

四川省人口民族构成的变化及其有关政策问题

四川是我国多民族的省区之一。人口的民族构成及其变化特点,是省情、国情的重要组成部分,是制定有关社会、经济政策和人口政策的基本依据。本文拟以三次人口普查和1987年全国1％人口抽样调查,以及户口管理部门经常性人口统计资料为依据,分析建国以来四川人口民族结构的变化,兼及有关的人口政策。     

中国百万以上人口的民族在人口普查时年龄申报的准确性

一、前言 人口普查的质量问题,它所提供的信息可靠性是关系到能否“真实地”反映实际国情的重要问题。所以,每个国家在人口普查时,对质量问题都非常重视,除了在人口普查时各个环节进行把关以外,事后,对人口普查的最后结果还要作一番检查。     

动员社会力量搞好今年人口普查

人口普查是一项最大的国情国力调查。通过人口普查取得各项人口数字资料,在全世界已有二百多年历史。我国虽然自古以来就有统计人口数字的历史,但采用人口普查这种形式却起步较晚。清末和民国期间曾进行过两次普查尝试,但因多方原因均未成功。新中国成立后,分别在1953年、1964年和1982年进行过三次人口普查,其中尤以1982年第三次人口普查     

人口普查中的事后质量抽样调查

事后质量抽查是世界各国在人口普查中普遍采取的用来评估人口普查登记质量的调查方法,是评价数据质量的重要手段之一。本文主要从事后质量抽查的作用、抽样设计、调查方法、估计方法、抽查结果以及与以往相比有何改进等方面论述了2000年第五次全国人口普查中的事后质量抽样调查,并对人口普查的总人口漏报率进行了评估。     

The use of sampling in conjunction with population censuses

In Asia and the Pacific, the practice of governments is increasingly to collect information on their populations' size, age and sex composition, geographic distribution, and certain other basic demographic and socioeconomic characteristics on the basis of a complete (100%) enumeration, and to supplement this basic information by collecting information on a larger range of variables on a sample basis. The additional information, which is gathered as part of the census operation, may be related to such population characteristics as migration, employment, fertility, and health. A complete census is generally indispensable for obtaining information about small domains, and also for obtaining politically important data, which must be seen to be free from sampling variability. A complete census is typically confined to obtaining a detailed picture of the number and basic structural characteristics of the entire population, with as much detail as possible about local areas. Sample surveys can quickly obtain a wider variety of more complex data. Sampling applications for the census include 1) using sampling in the design and control of census operations, such as in planning, testing, controlling, and evaluating the census; 2) using sample enumeration to supplement items covered in the complete census; 3) sampling the census results for processing to make the results available more quickly and at lower cost; and 4) extracting samples of microlevel files of detailed census data so as to facilitate dissemination of primary data.     

Two hundred years and counting: the 1990 census

On April 1, 1990, the US will take a national census, marking 200 years of census taking in America. A national census has been taken every 10 years in the US since 1790. Mandated by the US Constitution, the decennial census is the basis for reapportionment of the House of Representatives. California, Texas, and Florida are expected to gain the most Congressional seats following the 1990 Census, reflecting above-average population growth in these states. The census also provides important information about the characteristics of the American people, and a growing number of federal, state and local government programs, private corporations, and community agencies use census data. Each census provides a portrait of America, and over the decades these portraits have revealed much about how our country has changed as we have grown from a young agrarian nation of about 4 million people clustered along the Eastern seaboard to a complex post-industrial society of nearly 250 million spread across the continent and beyond. Techniques for taking the census have steadily improved over the past 2 centuries. The 1990 Census will rely heavily on computerization in all its aspects, including field operations, processing, geography, data tabulations, and products. It is likely to be the most accurate census in our history. The 1990 Census is already the subject of a lawsuit, however, charging that minority groups will be counted less completely than the white population. A series of similar lawsuits followed the 1980 Census, but all were unsuccessful. This Bulletin discusses the Census Bureau's plans for taking the 1990 Census, looks back on 200 years of census taking in America, and details such key aspects of the 1990 Census as the questionnaire, census geography and data dissemination plans, census undercount and the homeless.     

Our experience with population censuses in 1953 and 1964]

We have accumulated some valuable experience through 2 successful population censuses in 1953 and 1964. A series of special census committees were established at each administrative level--from central government to local areas. Periodic 2-way telephone communication between higher and lower offices was planned. The census was conducted on the basis of permanent population in 1953 and 1964. A standard time of June 30, midnight was used in both cases. Census items must be clear, easy to use, and standardized. Name, relationship to head of household, sex, age, race, and present address were listed in 1954. Birth date, class, educational level, and occupation were added in 1964. For accurate data census districts and their boundaries must be clearly marked. Registering the whole family by head of household at the nearby temporary census station was found to be convenient, efficient, and accurate. Door-to-door visits by census clerks were also used. To complete such a cumbersome task in a short period of time high-quality census personnel were trained to fully understand the significance, the regulations, and the technical details of the task. Nationwide education and propaganda about the census were important for success. 3 levels of reporting (county, province, and central) in 1953 and 4 levels in 1964 were used to check results and correct mistakes. The announcement of the results to the public after the entire census was completed provided an opportunity for the public to confirm the data and correct mistakes. This process of confirmation is an essential quality control step.     

The use of the 1982 China Census data]

Compared with the 1953 and 1964 census, the census in 1982 included more items, and computer technology was used extensively in the analysis of the census data. Census results were used to provide guidance for population control and socio-economic development programs. 3 large scale conference were held on the census, and papers presented at the first conference were published in both English and Chinese. Numerous books and papers were published based on the analysis of the census data. These include "China: Population and Geography," "Population and Employment in China in the Year 2000," and a series of 32 volumes entitled "China's Population." In addition, 3 major projects were undertaken: 1) the compilation of "the Population Atlas of China," 2) development of "Regional Model Life Tables in China", and 3) the development of computer software entitled "Demographic Analysis System." The results of the projects are satisfactory, and the outcome of the first 2 projects will be published both in China and overseas. Even though there has been great improvement in the utilization of data in the 1982 census from the 2 previous censuses, something are still, left to be desired. For the fourth census in 1990, it is important to consider the analysis and utilization of data in the planning stage. More detailed data should be published. Training workshops should be undertaken, enabling more people to use computers for data analysis. International collaborations should be further developed, as needed.     

“四普”至“五普”间中国城镇化的发展

利用中国第四次人口普查和第五次人口普查的资料 ,分析了在“四普”至“五普”期间中国城镇化的发展状况及出现的问题 ,揭示了中国城镇化发展的地域差异。在 2 1世纪中国的城镇化仍将快速发展 ,如何克服中国城镇化过程中所出现的问题 ,进而引导中国的城镇化朝着健康、有序的方向发展 ?这是一个至关重要的问题。     

中国人口终身迁移状况分析

“出生地”是用来收集人口迁移信息最常用的调查项目之一。中国以往的人口普查中一直缺少这一调查项目 ,这使得利用出生地资料对人口迁移状况进行分析在国内一直是个空白。中国第五次人口普查在中国人口普查史上首次调查了人口的出生地信息。本文主要根据第五次人口普查提供的出生地资料 ,对中国各省人口的终身迁移水平、流向以及不同年龄人口的终身迁移状况进行了初步分析。     

Population undercount and social science research

The undercount problem in the decennial census has important implication for social science research based directly or indirectly on census data. Because undercount rates (or coverage rates) vary by age, race, residence, and other factors typically studied in social research, important conceptual difficulties arise in using census results to corroborate sampling frames or to validate survey results. Differential undercount, particularly for analyses based on small areas, could produce substantial variability in prevalence rates in cases where the denominators for those rates are derived from the census. Several examples where the undercount problem arises in social science research, including survey research, are considered. The adjustment problem—whether to adjust, how to adjust, and how much to adjust—is also considered from the point of view of social sicence research.     

The function and significance of coding in the population census]

The importance and practicality of a nationally standardized census code for China's population are outlined in this paper. Due to the diversity and size of China's population, the tremendous cost of conducting a national census depends to a large extent on the development of an efficient, simple, comprehensive, and easily completed census form. Codifying information is regarded as a means for greatly simplifying computerized data processing of census forms, although past problems with misinterpretation of instructions by census takers in various parts of the country have caused massive backlogs, errors, and duplication of effort. A key problem discussed is the matter of converting Chinese characters (from census forms) into a computerized format for data processing. It is proposed that a nationally standardized code for reducing economic and technical information be established in order to streamline both national and local surveys.     

事后调查的理论和它在人口普查修正中的应用

人口普查不可避免地存在误差,如遗漏、重复。为发挥普查的作用,对其结果修正是必要的。一般采用事后调查法修正。事后调查在人口普查结束后进行,主要目的是为修正提供基础数据。普查局利用这些数据,使用捕获再捕获模型,修正人口普查数。