Fertility Decline in Russia in the Early and Mid 1990s: The Role of Economic Uncertainty and Labour Market Crises

This paper analyses the fertility decline in Russia during theearly and mid 1990s from both a macro- and micro-perspective and presents astriking divergence between these two empirical viewpoints. While the formersuggests that the fertility decline after 1989 is associated with theeconomic hardship accompanying the transition to a market economy, themicro-evidence using the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey is to thecontrary. There is no negative association between labour market uncertaintyor a labour market crisis and fertility, and frequently there is even apositive association. That is, women or couples who are themselves affectedby labour market crises often had a higher probability of having anotherchild in the period 1994–1996 than women/couples who were less affected bysuch crises. The lack of a negative association, and the presence of apositive association in many instances, is surprising from the standpoint ofeconomic fertility theory. It is also contrary to many explanatory theoriesabout the recent fertility decline in Central and Eastern European countriesthat are built on a more or less direct connection between the labour marketor an economic crisis and low fertility.     

试论马穆鲁克埃及的饥荒与济贫：1250-1517

埃及马穆鲁克时期，尼罗河水位不足或泛滥带来周期性饥馑，统治者的救助政策与措施决定灾难的影响范围和民众的生死存亡，开国者拜伯尔斯英明果断地多次化解危机，使国家强大兴旺，精明强干的纳绥尔机智应对灾难，把国家带入安定、繁荣时期，而怯的不花、法拉吉等在饥荒时期不作为，涂炭生灵，削弱了自己的统治力量，最终导致亡国命运。自然灾害并不可怕，可怕的是体制的不健全和统治者的无知、自私与冷漠。     

Real wages,alcohol consumption and mortality in Sweden, 1861–1913

This paper addresses the decline in the Swedish mortality rate for adult men during the latter part of the nineteenth century. According to a recent study, the relationship between mortality and changes in real wages observed in previous stages of the demographic transition was non-existent in this period. By contrast, other findings suggest that the fluctuations in wages did have palpable consequences for people — emigration as well as crime (theft) were markedly affected. One hypothesis of the present study maintains that the shrinking consumption of alcohol is a partial explanation of the decline in mortality. Is is further suggested that a positive relationship between changes in real wages and alcohol consumption may conceal the wage effect on mortality. These hypotheses were empirically supported by time-series analyses of annual data covering the period 1861–1913. Real wages as well as alcohol consumption per capita had a statistically significant effect on male mortality. When the alcohol predictor was omitted in the model, the wage effect did not reach statistical significance. The decline in male mortality during the study period was, on the average, about one per cent per year. According to the results, a good half of this decrease is attributable to the trends in real wages and alcohol consumption.     

积极心理学与灾后心理重建

灾后的心理重建在修复个体心理创伤的同时,更重要的是增强人们对今后可能出现的各种危机的应对能力。地震造成了人们的心理危机,也给个人和社会的成长带来了契机。积极心理学在灾后心理重建中不但有助于缓解危机已造成的消极效应,而且通过积极情绪的体验、积极人格的塑造、积极社会制度系统的完善,可以使我们从灾难’中学到更多新的知识,重新发现自己的潜能,建设新的生活。     

Social Differences in the Decline of Marital Reproduction in Rural Navarre (Spain)

The continued decline of marital fertility in Navarre (Spain) during the first few decades of the twentieth century was associated with an increase in life expectancy and greater survival to adulthood. This decline affected all social strata and all geographical regions, rural areas as well as cities. Nonetheless, the decline was not homogeneous. Some sectors of Navarrese society began the fertility transition earlier than others.Cross sectional analysis is presented for different years of diverse variables that could be related to the levels of marital fertility: level of urbanization, occupation of the father, level of religious devotion and political factors. Statistical evidence is presented that confirms the relationship of these variables to the levels of fertility.     

公共危机管理中非政府组织的参与——以汶川地震为例

在政府独自力量不足以应对频繁发生的公共危机事件的背景下,以＂5·12＂汶川大地震为例,探析非政府组织自身的特性及其在汶川大地震中的表现,揭示出中国的非政府组织在参与危机管理过程中具有民间性、灵活性、专业性、公平性等显著优势,同时存在法律、制度、资金、文化方面的障碍,提出从政府角度和非政府角度来加强中国非政府组织有效参与公共危机管理的路径选择。     

论清嘉道时期的社会危机

清嘉道时期的社会危机主要表现在二个方面:一是大量的流民游民群;二是大量的秘密结社。成千上万的流民游民,流离失所,生活赤贫,以各种方式和手段求生存,打乱了社会的正常秩序,造成了社会的急剧动荡;秘密结社从整体上看,借会谋生、借会敛财的经济色彩非常浓厚,很多敛财方式其实是一种抢劫,对社会构成威胁和破坏。大量事实表明:“不言利”的传统道德教条断绝了老百姓的谋生之路,是导致社会危机的主要原因。     

Causes of Fluctuating Mortality in Romania

During the post-communist transition, Romanians experienced some of the highest mortality rates in eastern Europe, some of the greatest fluctuations in life expectancy and some of the greatest delays in recovery. This study examines the shifts in cause-specific mortality underlying these fluctuations. Using demographic methods to understand the peaks and troughs in life expectancy during the past twenty years, we explore several explanations for these fluctuations: changes in exposure and behaviour associated with the social, economic and political changes; changes in health care affecting amenable causes of death and the progression of the epidemiologic transition. Throughout this period, there is a continuing shift from infectious towards chronic diseases mortality. Psycho-social stress during the period of transition affected survival, evidenced by increases in suicides and differences in mortality between men and women. Amenable causes of death took a greater toll on life expectancy, and increases in tuberculosis and congenital heart abnormality mortality provide evidence of a weakening of health services. However, decreases in vaccine-preventable mortality demonstrate that the health system did not fully fail. Policy changes also affected survival, including decreasing abortion-related mortality and, after initial increases in accidental mortality, new improvements, especially in traffic fatalities.     

非常规危机下中国经济型酒店的战略突围

2008年以来,四川汶川大地震、全球性金融危机以及甲型H1N1流感三大非常规危机连续发生,对于我国经济产生了重大影响,并波及到各个行业。随着我国旅游业步入严冬,经济型酒店业也陷入困境。面对这一严峻的形势,我国经济型酒店要顺利渡过这一系列危机,冲出困境并得以发展,选择恰当的战略突围是关键。     

Variations in the pace of old-age mortality decline in seven European countries, 1950–1999: the role of smoking and other factors earlier in life

We examine the variations in the pace of old-age (80+) mortality decline in seven European countries, from 1950 to 1999. Marked variations were found between countries, periods and sexes. While mortality declines were strong in France and England and Wales, modest or no mortality declines were seen in the 1950s and 1960s in the Nordic countries, and since the 1980s in Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway (men only). For non-smoking-related mortality, a high and consistent pace of mortality decline was observed. Mortality decline stagnated among men born between 1890 and 1899, but persisted among women born between 1847 and 1937. The pace of old-age mortality decline correlated with the pace of mortality decline at ages 60–69 among the same cohorts, but only among men and not for non-smoking-related mortality. Smoking, thus, seems more important than other factors originating earlier in life. Our results furthermore indicate substantial future declines in old-age mortality.     

中小型高校图书馆的危机及对策

近年来高等学校的超常规发展给高校图书馆带来文献资源危机。随着信息技术的不断发展,图书馆之间的界限将越来越模糊,许多中小型高校图书馆将面临生存危机,同时也可能危及职工的工作岗位。据此高校图书馆应当打破传统观念的禁锢,调整文献资源建设思路,加强特色馆藏建设,加强职工素质的培养,以适应时代对图书馆的要求。     

Structural and Behavioural Changes in the Short TermPreventive Check in the Northwest Balkans in the 18th and19th Centuries

Fertility responded negatively to grain insufficiency(proxied by grain price increases), and mortality respondedpositively in Croatia-Slavonia-Srem in the 18thand 19th centuries, as in most of Europe. Shiftsin the intensity and timing of these responsesoccurred over time as social and economic structureschanged. Shifts in the elasticity of fertility withrespect to grain supply inversely mimic and lagchanges in the elasticity of mortality. Both appear tobe induced by increasing land shortage, the collapseof feudalism, and differences in the patterns ofadjustment to post-feudal conditions among former civiland military serfs. Generally, responses are strongerfor civil and former civil serfs, who may have been inless favourable economic circumstances than themilitary. Fertility responses in the year of a priceshock come to dominate those in the year following,suggesting a shift from contraception to abortion aseconomic and social conditions apparently worsened andstrategies of control intensified. Analysis of monthlyresponses supports the conjecture based on the annualresponses. The shift to the preventive check and strength of thepreventive check in the same year as the price shockis unusual in Europe and beyond. Analysis is based on25 parishes and employs lagged annual and monthly timeseries analysis with corrections for autocorrelation,in combination with ethnographic and historical data.     

20世纪中国食物安全与农业经济的变迁

中国的粮食安全及农业经济发展水平同社会的性质和制度息息相关。 2 0世纪前 5 0年 ,粮食安全和农业经济整体水平较低 ,并且还呈现下降的趋势。后 5 0年 ,农业经济迅速发展 ,虽然期间受政策影响 ,粮食安全曾经出现危机 ,农业经济发展受阻 ,但是在中国共产党的领导下 ,新中国成功地解决了 12亿人的温饱问题 ,经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就。     

论“人是自然界不安分的开拓者”——与“看护自然论”商榷

自20世纪全球生态环境危机爆发以来,人与自然的关系成为学术界讨论的热门话题,"征服自然论"成为众矢之的,"敬畏自然论""顺应自然论"一时流行。为保护人类的生存环境,学术界近来也有不少人倡导"看护自然",强调人对自然界的看护责任。从环境伦理的视角看,这些看法固然合情合理,但是从生态哲学的视角看,这些看法本身面临着一系列的理论困境与现实挑战,因为从根本上说,人在本性上就是自然界不安分的开拓者,人类不可能安心于敬畏自然、顺应自然或者是看护自然。从人类面临的生存困境来说,征服自然既是人类应对环境危机与挑战的需要,也是人类发展的动力。征服自然与敬畏自然、顺应自然、守护自然,从来就是一种辩证的关系,不是一种简单的黑白分明的对立关系,它顺应着人类不同的生存需求,人类的文明一直是在复杂处境中蹒跚进步的。     

试论中晚唐时期的"銮舆播迁"

中晚唐时期,屡次出现皇帝因为各种危机而逃离长安即所谓"銮舆播迁"的现象.笔者通过具体分析指出,统治者素质的严重退化导致军事防御中一系列战略战术上的失误,而长安危急时的仓皇逃离又充分显示出其无能与怯懦;另一方面,统治者在仓皇逃离长安后却力求速为收复,其重要出发点是对长安财富与宫室的贪恋.正是基于这样的主观原因,统治者不顾关中经济残破、强敌侵逼的事实,继续定都长安并以政治权力维持其稳定与繁荣.这种定都格局,导致一系列连锁反应,对唐的灭亡乃至后世都产生了深远的影响.     

从奢侈型社会走向节约型社会

西方现代性社会起源于奢侈,尤其是进入消费社会以后更是把奢侈和浪费当作其本质特征之一.这种追求奢侈和浪费的后果造成了人的自我异化和生态危机的发生,从而威胁到人类的生存与发展.而要从根本上根除这些后果,只有建构节约型社会制度.     

高校管理应如何应对突发性危机

如何应对突发性危机是当前我国高校教育管理面临的新课题。目前我国高校存着多种诱发突发性危机的因素,高校应根据突发性危机的特征及人们在危机状态下的心理行为特点,制定相应的教育管理对策,积极建构应对突发性危机支持系统。     

2011年以来经济增长速度下降的性质与稳中求进之策

本文认为2011年以来中国GDP增长速度的下降性质是新一轮经济周期性的,此次经济周期既是国际金融危机外部冲击和总需求下降的影响,更是内部经济结构变化所致。内部结构性变化表现在：一是人口结构老年化加快和劳动力供给出现相对的和结构性的短缺;二是居民收入分配结构的变化导致消费需求不足;三是东南沿海地区产业结构升级困难,中西部地区尚未形成转移产业增长极。稳中求进之策是短期内依靠宏观经济政策刺激需求防止GDP增速下滑过大过快,尤其是扩大政府财政对农民和农村的公共物品供给,长期之计是需要制度创新与结构调整。     

阿根廷与泰国金融危机的比较研究

拉美与东南亚国家同属新兴市场经济国家,先后都爆发了严重的金融危机,这里蕴涵着一种可能性,即:发展中国家在发展经济时一定存在着某种共同的缺陷。阿根廷和泰国分别是这两次金融危机的起源国,也是受害最严重的国家。比较这两次危机有助于对金融危机的认识,并能为我国发展经济提供有益的借鉴。