Employment trends ofyoung mothers and the opportunity cost of babies in the United States

The central concept of microeconomic theories of fertility is opportunity cost--the product of wife's employment lost due to childbearing and the value of her employment. This paper presents a model for analyzing opportunity cost using panel data. The average loss of employment attributable to a second- or higher-order birth, calculated at around age 2, is over 400 hours per year. This time cost represents an income loss of about $1050 in 1969 dollars. Time cost is independent of such demographic factors as birth order and age of oldest sibling. Neither does time cost depend on husband's wage rate or wife's education or potential wage rate. This indicates that many microeconomic models of fertility have been seriously misspecified. The paper also compares results from static and dynamic models, explores possible problems due to simultaneity bias, investigates the relationship between changes in employment (including time cost) and initial employment level, and identifies the difficulties of theorizing about opportunity cost.     

A reconsideration of the economic consequences of marital dissolution

A close look at the income flows in the years following a divorce or separation reveals marked differences in the distribution of effects. The economic consequences of divorce are especially adverse for women. In most cases, children remain with the mother, who usually has considerably lower potential labor market earnings than her former husband, partly because her responsibilities for the children are likely to reduce her labor supply and may have limited her past human capital investments. Alimony and child support are the principal mechanisms for transfers from the ex-husband to the ex-wife, but payments are rarely frequent or sizeable enough to make up for an appreciable amount of the labor income lost through the departure of the ex-husband. Human capital investments on the part of the mother have a modest effect on her economic situation in the years following the divorce. Most men who divorce or separate are immediately better off because they retain most of their labor incomes, typically do not pay large amounts of alimony and child support to their ex-wives, and no longer have to provide for the level of needs associated with their former families. Much more important than growth in the ex-wife's own labor income is the role of a new husband's labor income upon her remarriage. More than half of the white women remarry within five years following a divorce or separation; the comparable fraction for black women is less than half. An interesting question is whether the currently unmarried would enjoy the same kind of economic benefits, were they to remarry, as women who have remarried. Estimates from a model of the new husband's labor income, adjusted for selection bias inherent in the process of remarriage, indicate that the currently unmarried would probably not gain equal benefits if they were to remarry. The expected labor income of potential husbands of black women averages only about $5000--a modest amount when compared with the alternatives available to these women.     

Using Changes in Life Satisfaction and Health to Predict the Survival Status Among Older Men and Women in Taiwan

Despite policies aimed at decreasing old-age income inequality, such as Social Security and Supplemental Security Income, research consistently finds that later-life poverty is highly concentrated among women. While the early-life economic disadvantages of motherhood are well established, little work has examined whether these disadvantages persist into later life. Life course research consistently demonstrates the relationship between early-life choices and later-life inequality, but few studies have examined whether the reproductive phase of a woman's life is associated with her later-life income. Using data from the 2003 wave of the National Longitudinal Survey of Mature Women cohort, this research examines whether women's age at first birth and parity are associated with her later-life income within the context of marriage. From a set of multivariate analyses, I find that despite a marginal statistically significant effect, substantively for the women in this cohort the effects of childbearing are not particularly consequential for later-life income. The results suggest that as women age the economic penalties associated with motherhood are less important to financial well-being than are other factors.     

Absolute Income,Relative Income,and Happiness

This paper uses data from the World Values Survey to investigate how an individual’s self-reported happiness is related to (i) the level of her income in absolute terms, and (ii) the level of her income relative to other people in her country. The main findings are that (i) both absolute and relative income are positively and significantly correlated with happiness, (ii) quantitatively, changes in relative income have much larger effects on happiness than do changes in absolute income, and (iii) the effects on happiness of both absolute and relative income are small when compared to the effects several non-pecuniary factors.

The potential of child care tax credits to reduce poverty and welfare recipiency

As more and more mothers of young children enter the work force, interest in government financing of child care grows. The chief government subsidy for child care is the child care credit in the federal Internal Revenue Code. This is a nonrefundable credit and therefore provides benefits only to those with incomes high enough to require them to pay income tax. Yet of the $ 5.5 billion spent by the federal government on child care in 1986, this program accounted for $ 3.5 billion.This paper simulates the effects of expanding the child care tax credit by (1) doubling the reimbursement rates of the current credit; (2) making the credit refundable; and (3) both making the credit refundable and increasing its value for all families with income below $ 32,000.Results suggest that these changes will have modest effects on the income and earnings of mothers, and on the poverty gap and welfare recipiency. Costs, however, differ substantially. Doubling the value of the credit is far more expensive than either making the credit refundable or making it both refundable and more generous at the bottom of the income distribution. Making the credit refundable may cost taxpayers very little by leading to increases in hours worked and concomitant reductions in welfare payments.     

If happiness is relative, against whom do we compare ourselves? Implications for labour supply

This paper addresses two important issues: the nature of the reference group to which individuals compare themselves, and the implications of social comparisons for labour supply. It identifies age as the main characteristic defining the reference group. Race, sex and religion are other relevant features in its determination. It provides micro-level evidence that social comparisons influence the hours an individual works. Specifically, if her income is lower than her reference group income, she will work more. It also shows that for males, white people and people living in rural areas the effect of relative income on both happiness and labour supply is greater.     

The timing of falls into poverty after retirement and widowhood

A major concern of workers, even those financially prepared for retirement, is that a small risk of poverty may grow over time. Cross-sectional data showing that older cohorts have higher poverty rates substantiate this concern. Using data from the Retirement History Study, we analyze changes in the hazard of entering poverty as a cohort of elderly couples retire and age and the wives are widowed. The initial fall into poverty among those who were not poor before the husband retired is more closely linked to the event of retirement or widowhood than to the slowly eroding household income over the period of retirement and widowhood. The death of her retired husband puts a wife in economic jeopardy whether this shock occurs one year after his retirement or some years later.     

Estimating Recent Local Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Current Real-Estate Losses: A Housing Market Case Study in Miami-Dade,Florida

Sea-Level Rise (SLR) Projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers (USACE) indicate increasing, and imminent, risk to coastal communities from tidal flooding and hurricane storm surge. Building on recent research related to the potential demographic impacts of such changes (Hauer et al. 2016, in Nat Clim Chang 3:802–806, 2017; Neumann et al. 2015; Curtis and Schneider in Popul Environ 33:28–54, 2011), localized flooding projections in the Miami Beach area (Wdowinski et al. in Ocean Coast Manag 126:1–8, 2016) and projected economic losses associated with this rise in projected SLR (Fu et al. Ocean Coast Manag 133:11–17, 2016); this research investigates the accrued current cost, in terms of real-estate dollars lost, due to recurrent tidal flooding and projected increases of flooding in Miami-Dade County. Most directly related to this line of research, Keenan et al. (2018) have recently produced results indicating that Climate Gentrification is taking place in Miami, FL with higher elevations in flood prone areas appreciating at a higher rate. In that vein of thinking, we seek to answer a question posed by such research: What is the actual accrued loss to sea-level rise over the recent past? To answer this question, we replicate well-documented estimation methods by combining publicly available sea-level rise projections, tide gauge trends, and property lot elevation data to identify areas regularly at risk of flooding. Combining recent patterns of flooding inundation with future forecasts, we find that properties projected to be inundated with tidal flooding in 2032 have lost $3.08 each year on each square foot of living area, and properties near roads that will be inundated with tidal flooding in 2032 have lost $3.71 each year on each square foot of living area. These effects total over $465 million in lost real-estate market value between 2005 and 2016 in the Miami-Dade area.     

Fiscal externalities of becoming a parent

Theoretical and empirical results suggest that there are externalities to childbearing, but those results usually assume that these externalities accrue uniformly within a homogeneous population. We advance this argument by developing separate estimates of the fiscal externalities associated with parents—those who devote time or material resources to minor children—and nonparents. Our analysis uses data from the US Panel Study of income Dynamics on the age profiles of taxes paid and publicly funded benefits consumed by parents and nonparents, together with a previously developed intertemporal economic-demographic accounting model. The accounting framework takes into account the net fiscal impacts of future generations as well as the present population. Our findings indicate that, with a 3 percent discount rate, parents produce a substantial net fiscal externality, about $217,000 in 2009 dollars. This is equivalent to a lifetime annuity of nearly $8,100 per year beginning at age 18. The results are sensitive to both the discount rate used and the proportion of parents within the cohort.     

Estimating intrahousehold allocation in a collective model with household production

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the intra-family distribution of income and the individual demand for leisure and household production from Swedish cross-sectional household data. As a basis for the analysis, we use a collective model where each individual is characterized by his or her own utility function and divides total time between leisure, household production and market work. For the purpose of comparison, we also estimate a version that is consistent with a more traditional model of labor supply, the unitary model. Received: 14 April 2000/Accepted: 12 January 2001     

Noncustodial Fathers’ Ability to Pay Child Support

This article explores the extent to which noncustodial fathers can pay child support by estimating the income of noncustodial fathers and coupling these estimates with simulations of alternative normative standards for how much absent parents should be expected to contribute to the costs of rearing their children. The study indicates that the amount that is currently paid in child support ($6.8 billion in 1983) is far below the amount that should be paid under the various standards--from $24 billion to $29 billion.     

Welfare Costs of Inflation: Evidence from China

In this paper, we use the China General Social Survey 2010 data to estimate the impact of inflation on the welfare of residents. By using the happiness research approach, we find that on average, a 0.1 % rise in inflation rate will cause a welfare loss of about 73.0–164.1 RMB, mainly from unexpected inflation. Furthermore, welfare costs to different income groups vary significantly: for those whose household income reaches 100,000 RMB, the welfare loss resulted from a 0.1 % rise in inflation only reduces about 0.057 % of their income, while for the below 10 thousand income group, the cost is as high as 0.739 %. It also shows that there are substantial differences in different income groups’ sensitivities to different kinds of commodities. Specifically, low-income residents are seriously harmed by an increase in food and residence prices, whereas their middle-income counterparts are mainly affected by price changes in healthcare, personal articles, transportation, communication, recreation, and education. Besides, we find that subjective well-being of debtors are significantly boosted by inflation.     

Direct Valuation of Personal Care by Households

This paper valued the quantity of child, sick, and elderly care provided by households using a new, direct measure. Such measures add to the literature that estimates the size of the contribution of non-market work by household members, particularly women, and to literature about valuation of childcare. This production remains unvalued in standard national income accounts. Traditional attempts to quantify this care multiplied care-giver hours by a wage rate, a method that suffers from several drawbacks, including omitting the contributions of anything but labor, the inability to handle joint production, and the use of an arbitrary wage rate. This study avoided these problems by valuing the amount of care with its market price based on data from a small urban area. The mean value was $3,547 annually (97 percent of it childcare) for all sample households and $9,610 for those providing care. The results afforded evidence of scale economies in parental childcare and quantified care furnished by different kinds of providers.     

State and local fiscal impacts of US immigrants: Evidence from New Jersey

This paper uses a household-level estimation strategy to develop new evidence on the state and local fiscal impacts of US immigration. The methodology is applied to 1980 census microdata for New Jersey, a state that now ranks fifth in the nation in the size of its foreign-born population. All New Jersey households combined in 1980 imposed a net fiscal burden on state government of more than US$2.1 billion, and a net burden on the aggregate of all local governments totaling nearly $ 690 million. Both native- and immigrant-headed households received government benefits worth more than they paid in taxes. The typical immigrant-headed household imposed an average fiscal burden of $ 350 on local governments throughout New Jersey, versus roughly $ 225 for each native-headed household. At the state level, however, net fiscal impacts of immigrants and natives were similar: an average annual deficit of $ 841 for immigrants compared with $ 846 for native households. There are larger disparities among the foreign-born population than between native-headed and immigrant-headed households. Latin American households have the most unfavorable fiscal implications of any immigrant subgroup. Taken together, our findings illustrate the overriding importance of household income and number of school-age children as determinants of taxes paid, benefits received and, ultimately, of net fiscal impacts.     

An international labour migration to developing countries in Asia: a case study of Korea

This study is based on a random sample of 431 temporary migrant workers from developing countries in Korea. Interviews were conducted from mid-October 1995 to mid-March 1996 with 105 Pakistanis, 77 Filipinos, 71 Sri Lankans, 67 Bangladeshi, 40 Indonesians, 26 individuals from Myanmar, 22 Chinese, 16 Nepalese, 2 Iranians, 2 Kazakstanians, 1 Malaysian, 1 Vietnamese, and 1 Ghanaian. Migration follows legal and illegal patterns. Legal trainee migrants leave before their contract time due to low pay, inadequate living conditions, forced overtime work, and lack of freedom. Trainees tend to be ethnic Koreans born in China and Chinese nationals. The number of illegal migrants is increasing. Foreign workers gain entry illegally through smuggling networks and legally through industrial work or tourist visas. Sample data reveal that the average age ranged from 26 to 32 years. Almost 70% were unmarried, and most were males. Filipinos tended to be older and show gender and marital balance. Age, marital status, religion, and education varied widely by ethnic group. Indonesians and Sri Lankans had lower household income than Pakistanis and Filipinos. Pakistanis tended to come from larger families. Total travel costs ranged from $3000 to $5000. Korea is one of four rapidly developing countries that shifted from being a major exporter of labor to a major importer of workers. Shortages of workers accompanied the shift. This case study illustrates that the traditional structural paradigm does not explain some unique features of international labor migration (ILM) in Asia, including the encouragement of illegal migration. The clandestine networks are different from those in developed countries. State policies mediate the flow of ILM.     

The transition to tertiary education and parental background over time

We analyze the role of parental background for transitions to tertiary education in Germany and answer three questions: (a) does the relevance of parental background shift from short-term (contemporary income) to long factors (ability, parental education) at higher levels of education? (b) Did the impact of parental background on participation in tertiary education change over time? (c) Are there different patterns by sex and region? Parental income significantly affects transitions to tertiary education. Its impact seems to have lost magnitude over time. We find no clear differences by sex and larger parental income effects in West than in East Germany.     

Income and Financial Satisfaction among Older Adults in the United States

Using data from the General Social Surveys,this study compares the effects of differentincome variables on financial satisfactionamong people age 65 and above in the UnitedStates. Results suggest that simply usinghousehold income as a variable without anyadjustment does not capture the real effect ofincome on financial satisfaction. Incomeequivalence scales and per-capita income arebetter income predictors of financialsatisfaction than family income. Given thefact that it is not uncommon in financialsatisfaction as well as subjective well-beingresearch to use the family income variablewithout adjustment, findings regarding theeffect of income from those studies should beinterpreted with caution.     

The Consequences of Reproductive Failure: Dependence,Mobility, and Mortality among the Elderly of Rural South Asia

This paper examines the proposition that the economic mobility of persons in rural South Asia is affected by their reproductive outcomes: specifically, that reproductive failure (defined as the failure to rear a surviving son) entails material loss. Underlying this proposition is the notion that sons in this setting constitute an important source of insurance against the risk of income insufficiency in old age and in a variety of other contingencies. Analysis of data on living arrangements of the elderly in several rural South Asian communities and histories of asset gain and loss suggest that the consequences of reproductive failure include higher mortality risks and a high probability of property loss, that these consequences are more severe for women than for men, and are considerably more severe in rural Bangladesh than in the sampled areas of rural India.     

Population growth and poverty in the developing world

The links between rapid population growth and the absolute poverty currently affecting 780 million people in the developing countries (excluding China and other centrally planned economies) were examined. Absolute poverty is defined as having less than the income necessary to ensure a daily diet of 2150 calories per person ($200 per person a year in 1970 United States dollars). Focus is on poverty and demography in the developing world (defining poverty; income, fertility and life expectancy; demographic change and poverty), effect of poverty on fertility, family planning programs and the poor, and the outlook for the future. Rapid population growth stretches both national and family budgets thin with the increasing numbers of children to be fed and educated and workers to be provided with jobs. Slower per capita income growth, lack of progress in reducing income inequality, and more poverty are the probable consequences. Many characteristics of poverty can cause high fertility -- high infant mortality, lack of education for women in particular, too little family income to invest in children, inequitable shares in national income, and the inaccessibility of family planning. Experience in China, Indonesia, Taiwan, Colombia, Korea, Sri Lanka, Cuba and Costa Rica demonstrate that birthrates can decline rapidly in low income groups and countries when basic health care, education, and low-cost or free family planning services are made widely available.     

论收入差距对中国乡城迁移决策的影响

本文利用问卷调查数据 ,分析了城乡收入差距对中国劳动力迁移的影响 ,以及收入差距的来源。结果表明 :(1)收入差距在迁移决策中起着显著作用。 (2 )在消除了样本选择性偏差的影响后 ,女性的城乡收入差距要高于男性。 (3)在男性的收入差距中 ,迁移者和非迁移者在素质上的差异占主导地位 ;而女性的收入差距主要决定于城乡劳动力市场的工资差别。