International Migration at the Dawn of the Twenty-First Century: The Role of the State

This note reviews recent theoretical and empirical work on the determinants and efficacy of state immigration policies to draw conclusions about the future direction of policy regimes throughout the globe and their likely effects. An age of increasingly restrictive immigration policies is emerging, but it is still unclear how effective these policies will be in controlling the volume and composition of international migration. States can be located along a continuum of efficacy with respect to the imposition of restrictive policies. Unfortunately virtually all research done to date has focused on the effectiveness of restrictive policies in major immigrant-receiving developed countries. More research needs to be done to determine just how effective restrictive immigration policies can be under varying degrees of state capacity.     

Population Policy Dilemmas in Europe at the Dawn of the Twenty‐First Century

The article discusses issues raised by persistent below‐replacement fertility in Europe. The continent's demographic predicament is highlighted by comparing age structures and relative population sizes between populations in and outside Europe—such as those of Russia and Yemen and those of an enlarged 25‐country European Union and a 25‐country hinterland to the EU in North Africa and West Asia—during the past 50 years and prospectively up to 2050, based on United Nations estimates and projections. Potential geopolitical aspects of the population shifts are considered. European policy responses to them are found largely wanting. With respect to the key demographic variable, fertility, explicit pronatalism is rejected by most European governments. A set of policy measures that commands wide support, with the hoped‐for side effect of raising birth rates, seeks to make women's participation in the formal labor force compatible with childrearing. The effectiveness of such measures, however, is likely to be limited. Continued below‐replacement fertility, higher immigration from outside Europe, negative population growth, and loss of demographic weight within the global population are safe predictions for the Europe of the twenty‐first century.     

平均预期寿命、健康工作寿命与延迟退休年龄

我国劳动者能健康工作多久?退休年龄究竟延迟到哪一岁最为合理?这关系着广大劳动者切身利益因而是非常重大的政策性问题。本研究采用生命表技术编制了我国2005和2010年分性别人口平均预期寿命、健康预期寿命、工作寿命及健康工作寿命表,然后从劳动力健康工作的视角提出我国延迟退休的合理目标年龄。研究发现,2005和2010年,我国男女健康工作寿命都分别接近62岁和58岁。该发现的重要政策启示在于:我国当前可适当延迟退休年龄,女性比男性延迟退休的空间大,男女65岁同龄退休的时机还未成熟,建议我国延迟退休的目标年龄应以男性62岁,女性58岁为上限;从生命周期角度对我国退休年龄进行国际比较,若按男性62岁,女性58岁为退休年龄上限执行,那么我国劳动力的退休生涯与工作寿命之比将接近发达国家的平均水平;从政策的操作层面来看,我国延迟退休应女先男后或女快男慢,并采取弹性退休制度逐步推迟退休年龄。     

Transforming Retirement: New Definitions of Life After Work

This quantitative research study uses survey data of women born between 1946 and 1951 in Australia. It follows earlier work that identified the importance of transitions from work for women of the baby boomer generation. We provide important insights into the lives of women who have partially or fully retired and the changing nature of women's work and retirement. For many women, retirement is characterized by newfound freedoms, opportunities, career change, and evolving identities, yet others view retirement as a continuation of previous occupational and gendered roles and commitments. This study has important implications for retirement policies for women.     

Religiosity and Life Satisfaction Across the Life Course

Scant attention has been paid to social catalysts of the increase in religiosity in the maturational and aging process. Using the 1988 Gallup Survey, this paper first explores four major measures of religiosity (personal devotion, participation in public ritual, divine interaction, and preference for public or privatized religiosity) for seven age groups. Next, the impact of these religiosity measures on satisfaction with life is assessed for each of the major age categories. In light of these findings, the authors move toward developing a theory of religiosity and life course.     

妇女生命历程对其男孩偏好的影响

男孩偏好是导致我国人口出生性别比升高的根本原因.妇女是男孩偏好传统的受害者,她们的生命历程中经历了许多基于性别的差别待遇事件.这些事件会对妇女自身的性别观念产生什么样的影响？文章以生命历程理论为理论框架,通过对调查数据和资料的分析,研究妇女生命历程中的事件对其男孩偏好的影响.研究结果表明,在妇女生命历程各个不同阶段中,她们所经历的一系列基于性别的差别性待遇的影响会不断累积,让她们逐渐感知到两性在家庭、社会中所处的不平等地位,从而增加妇女发生男孩偏好的可能性.甚至这些经历和事件发生的时间、次序,都会对妇女的男孩偏好产生影响.在此基础上,文章提出弱化妇女男孩偏好的政策建议.     

人口老龄化与退休低龄化剖析

中国是个人口大国 ,人口问题无时无刻都在对社会经济的运行产生影响 ,无论影响是正面的还是负面的 ,是近期的还是长远的 ,都需要加以关注、加以研究 ,以便采取相应的对策。笔者在 1 998年全市人口科学研讨会上 ,曾对我国人口老龄化的进程及其对我国社会经济影响的利与弊作过一些论述与探讨。在当时曾引起了有关部门及新闻媒体的极大注目 ,多家报刊记者采访后还发表了相应的报导与评论。中美合办的“科技导报”五湖四海栏目邀请笔者撰写了有关论文在国内外发表 ,主要是中国的人口问题受到了国内外的广泛关注。时隔 1 0多年 ,还是这个人口老龄…     

Quality of Family Life and Mortality in Seventeenth Century Dublin

Inquiry into the quality of family life in seventeenth century Dublin is an attempt to understand conditions in the second largest city in the British Isles; further, the era was one of convulsions in the body politic, social, and religious. The Scottish James I and VI (1556 1625) determined that the Irish province closest to Scotland, Ulster, would be settled = `planted” by Presbyterians. The process was undertaken at the expense of Ulster’s tradition bound, gaelic population. Decades later, that policy of deliberate alienation led to the uprising in 1641 led by Sir Phelim O’ Neill. A decade of violence was summated in an outbreak of bubonic plague from baleful Nature, and by the violent, swift campaign of Oliver Cromwell in 1649. Thirty years later, the Glorious Revolution of 1688, confirmed by the defeat of James II at the Boyne, consolidated power in Ireland in the hands of the Protestant ascendancy. Quality of life in the several decades of turmoil was destroyed for many, but Dublin was spared the physical destruction experienced at Drogheda to the north; Dublin’s deliverance was the work of Colonel Michael Jones and his victory at nearby Rathmines. Subsequently, Dublin’s households flourished in the several parishes; in some piped water was available, but mortality was always high.     

Sons of St. Patrick: Quality of Life and Heights of Young Irish Males at Mid-Nineteenth Century

An index of the quality of life for children in Ireland’s four provinces containing thirty-two counties is generated from three domains of information in the (1841) census of Ireland. The average of three regression-weighted indexes derived from educational, demographic and housing data is labelled the Quality of Life for Irish Children—1841 (QUALIC’41). Heights of 1,032 army recruits generated a sub-set of 735 males between the ages of 17 and 20 years. Their heights were indexed to those of the general population in the Galton committee report of 1883. Height indexes are presented and analyzed. The QUALIC’41 index is assessed as a predictor of heights in the late teen years. The heights are compared with Scottish heights from the same period, and are assessed for differences due to the presence of the 1845 famine in the growth pattern of some recruits.     

The Life Course,Cohort Dynamics,and International Differences in Aging Trajectories

In recent years, population health research has focused on understanding the determinants of later-life health. Two strands of that work have focused on (1) international comparisons of later-life health and (2) assessing the early-life origins of disease and disability and the importance of life course processes. However, the less frequently examined intersection of these approaches remains an important frontier. The present study contributes to the integration of these approaches. We use the Health and Retirement Study family of data sets and a cohort dynamic approach to compare functional health trajectories across 12 high-income countries and to examine the role of life course processes and cohort dynamics in contributing to variation in those trajectories. We find substantial international variation in functional health trajectories and an important role of cohort dynamics in generating that variation, with younger cohorts often less healthy at comparable ages than the older cohorts they are replacing. We further find evidence of heterogeneous effects of life course processes on health trajectories. The results have important implications for future trends in morbidity and mortality as well as public policy.     

Early-Life Circumstances and Their Effects Over the Life Course

Population Research and Policy Review - The idea that early-life circumstances shape people’s health, development, and well-being over the life course has gained renewed centrality in the...     

以生命历程范式浅析老年群体中的不平等现象

运用现有社会学理论对老年领域存在的不平等原因作初步的分析。传统的分层理论中 ,经济地位、权力分配、个人生活机会等社会分层的决定因素在解释老年不平等现象中依然发挥着重要作用。分析老年不平等问题 ,不仅需要传统理论的支持 ,还需要动态的来考察 ,本文在传统理论的支持下加入了一个新的理论视角———生命历程范式。     

Interrelationships Between Childbearing and Housing Transitions in the Family Life Course

Research has examined the effect of family changes on housing transitions and childbearing patterns within various housing types. Although most research has investigated how an event in one domain of family life depends on the current state in another domain, the interplay between them has been little studied. This study examines the interrelationships between childbearing decisions and housing transitions. We use rich longitudinal register data from Finland and apply multilevel event history analysis to allow for multiple births and housing changes over the life course. We investigate the timing of fertility decisions and housing choices with respect to each other. We model childbearing and housing transitions jointly to control for time-invariant unobserved characteristics of women, which may simultaneously influence their fertility behavior and housing choices, and we show how joint modeling leads to a deeper understanding of the interplay between the two domains of family life.     

德国养老保险体制改革刍议

21世纪初,为缓解公共养老保险系统因人口老龄化和提前退休人员增加而面临的收支失衡压力,德国进行了两次旨在开源节流,优化社会养老保险系统结构的改革。出于为我国的社会养老保险体制的发展与完善提供有积极意义的参考和借鉴的目的,本文较深入、系统地论述了德国在21世纪初进行的这两次养老保险体制改革。     

Agricultural Opportunity and Marriage: The United States at the Turn of the Century

This article focuses on the marriage behavior of rural white males in the United States at the turn of the century. The principal goal of the analysis is to assess the role of agricultural opportunity in determining nuptial timing and prevalence. The major issue addressed is whether restricted opportunity in farming retarded entry into marriage. Overall, the findings suggest that rural young men were less likely to enter marriage when local opportunity in agriculture was poor. One mechanism through which the local opportunity structure influenced nuptiality was occupational choice. Young men who entered nonagricultural pursuits or who were employed as farm laborers were far less likely to have married than young men who became farmers.