Measuring years of inactivity,years in retirement,time to retirement,and age at retirement within the Markov model

Retirement-related concepts are treated as random variables within Markov process models that capture multiple labor force entries and exits. The expected number of years spent outside of the labor force, expected years in retirement, and expected age at retirement are computed—all of which are of immense policy interest but have been heretofore reported with less precisely measured proxies. Expected age at retirement varies directly with a person’s age; but even younger people can expect to retire at ages substantially older than those commonly associated with retirement, such as age 60, 62, or 65. Between 1970 and 2003, men allocated most of their increase in life expectancy to increased time in retirement, but women allocated most of their increased life expectancy to labor force activity. Although people can exit and reenter the labor force at older ages, most 65-year-old men who are active in the labor force will not reenter after they eventually exit. At age 65, the probability that those who are inactive will reenter the labor force at some future time is .38 for men and .27 for women. Life expectancy at exact ages is decomposed into the sum of the expected time spent active and inactive in the labor force, and also as the sum of the expected time to labor force separation and time in retirement.     

Changing Life Expectancy and Health Expectancy Among Russian Adults: Results from the Past 20 Years

The decade following the collapse of the Soviet Union was characterized by wide fluctuations in Russian mortality rates, but since the early 2000s, life expectancy has improved progressively. Recent upturns in longevity have promoted policy debates over extending the retirement age in the country. However, whether observed gains in life expectancy are accompanied by improving health remains to be addressed. Using data from the 1994–2014 Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey of the Higher School of Economics, this study investigates trends over 20 years in healthy life expectancy (HLE) and illness-free life expectancy (IFLE) for men and women at adult ages. Analyses using the Sullivan method show that men and women at adult ages have experienced large increases in health expectancies during the post-Soviet period. Increases in HLE exceeded increases in total life expectancy for both genders. Further, health expectancies have evolved over time through cycles of increases and decreases, just like life expectancy. These results suggest increases in good-quality years among men and women at working ages, offering support for changing the official retirement age. The extent of the change in the retirement age, however, needs to be carefully considered, given that, despite recent improvements, the health expectancy of the Russian population still remains low.     

The Legacy of the Great Recession in Italy: A Wider Geographical,Gender, and Generational Gap in Working Life Expectancy

Under the pressure of population aging the Italian pension system has undergone reforms to increase labor force participation and retirement age, and, thus, the length of working life. However, how the duration of working life has developed in recent years is not well understood. This paper is the first to analyze trends in working life expectancy in Italy. We use data from a nationally representative longitudinal sample of 880,000 individuals from 2003 to 2013 and estimate working life expectancy by gender, occupational category, and region of residence using a Markov chain approach. We document large and increasing heterogeneity in the length of working life. From 2003–2004 to 2012–2013, working life expectancy for men declined from 35.2 to 27.2 years and for women from 34.7 to 23.7 years, increasing the gender gap to 3.5 years. Both young and old were hit, as roughly half of the decline was attributable to ages below 40, half above 40. Working life expectancy declined for all occupational groups, but those in manual occupations lost most, 8.5 years (men) and 10.5 years (women). The North–South economic gradient widened such that men living in the North were expected to work 8 years longer than women living in the South. The fraction of working life of total life expectancy at age 15 declined to record lows at 40% for men and 34% for women in 2012–2013. Policies aiming at increasing total population working life expectancy need to take into consideration the socio-demographic disparities highlighted by our results.

     

Level of choice in older women’s decisions to retire or continue working and associated well-being

Retirement is a complex life transition. Women’s retirement, like their work lives, may be further complicated, for example, by family or financial obligations; they may feel forced to retire or to continue working or feel they have the choice to do so. This study examines the role of voluntary versus involuntary retirement or continued work participation among retirement-age women; specifically, the relationships between choice, work status, and well-being. Compared to women forced to retire, women who chose retirement or continuing to work had higher levels of life satisfaction. Findings highlight the importance of examining retirement within the life course context.     

提前退休模式与行为及其影响因素——基于中国综合社会调查数据的分析

文章基于2008年中国综合社会调查数据,对城镇人口提前退休模式与行为及其影响因素进行了分析。主要结论是:(1)提前退休模式与行为存在显著的性别差异,女性比男性距离法定退休年龄更近时退休,表现出较为明显的集聚特征,法定退休年龄对女性退休模式与行为的影响更大;(2)随着中国家庭子女数量的减少,劳动力市场灵活性的逐步增强,人们劳动参与意愿和可能性都会显著提升,提前退休的可能性越来越小,而且不断提高的受教育程度也会使女性提前退休的可能性减小;(3)中国的社会保障制度对男性提前退休有显著影响,对女性则不显著。与养老保险制度相比,医疗保险与失业保险制度对男性提前退休的影响更大,基本医疗保险制度的完善会增加提前退休的可能性,失业保险制度的完善更有可能增强男性的工作意愿,降低提前退休的可能性。     

Changes in the retirement process among older men in the United States: 1972–1980

Recent changes in older men's retirement patterns are investigated for the United States. The results show that labor force incumbents, particularly those in secondary occupations, experienced increases in the volume of both retirement and reentry to the labor force. In addition, although working life expectancy remained relatively stable across occupations, men in secondary occupations spent increasingly greater portions of their work lives in postretirement jobs. Finally, large increases in nonworking life expectancy occurred because of substantial increases in life expectancy. In several occupations, however, declines in working life expectancy were major contributors to increases in nonworking life expectancy.     

The Association Between Individual Income and Remaining Life Expectancy at the Age of 65 in the Netherlands

This article quantifies the association between individual income and remaining life expectancy at the statutory retirement age (65) in the Netherlands. For this purpose, we estimate a mortality risk model using a large administrative data set that covers the 1996–2007 period. Besides age and marital status, the model includes as covariates individual and spouse’s income as well as a random individual specific effect. It thus allows for dynamic selection based on both observed and unobserved characteristics. We find that conditional on marital status, individual income is about equally strong and negatively associated with mortality risk for men and women and that spouse’s income is only weakly associated with mortality risk for women. For both men and women, we quantify remaining life expectancy at age 65 for low-income individuals as approximately 2.5 years less than that for high-income individuals.     

Gender differences in retirement decisions in Hong Kong

The study of labor force participation at older ages and the process of retirement do not have a long tradition in Asia's newly developed societies. This study, based on telephone survey of 950 respondents, examines various socio-economic factors that would influence retirement decision among older workers in Hong Kong. The findings show that older men were more likely to participate in the labor force than older women. Interestingly, older workers, in particular older women, with pension were less likely to retire. Having a working spouse decreased the likelihood of retirement and older workers, in particular older women, living with married children were more likely to retire. Poor health also discourages the propensity to continue working at old age. These findings confirm that retirement entails much more than just a decision to stop work, and that there were gender differences in retirement decision. Finally, several policy challenges, with reference to elderly women, concerning older workers' labor force participation were discussed.     

我国退休年龄延迟设计研究

本文针对当前我国＂未富先老＂、人口红利对经济增长的促进作用减弱及因人口老龄化进程加速而引起的社会养老负担过重等问题,依据人均预期寿命、劳动者参加工作的初始年龄和不同类型劳动对人体体力要求的差异等,就从事不同类型劳动的退休年龄标准进行了延迟设计。然后以国际上自我养老负担系数的合理取值范围为标准,就延迟设计方案的自我养老负担系数进行了测算。结果表明：延迟设计方案的退休年龄标准在当前及未来较短时期比较适合我国国情。但随着人均预期寿命的增长,也要结合自我养老负担系数的合理取值范围对退休年龄逐步调整,才能有效解决我国因人口老龄化逐步加深而引起的各种社会经济问题。本文试图为我国调整退休年龄标准提出可供借鉴的依据,进而有效地解决我国因人口老龄化逐步加深而对社会经济发展造成的负面影响。     

Social security reforms and poverty among older dual-earner couples

Existing retirement studies have, in the main, focused only on labor supply decisions of couples in which the husband has been the sole earner. This paper extends the focus of analysis to examine retirement among dual-earner couples. It further develops a framework for assessing how several past and prospective Social Security reforms might be expected to affect older working couples' retirement ages and retirement incomes. Two questions are addressed in some detail: (1) What are the likely effects of various changes in Social Security rules on the retirement decisions of older working women and their husbands? and (2) How might these changes alter the incidence of poverty among retired dual-earner couples? Empirical evidence from the United States suggests that many benefit reforms currently being discussed in policy circles will enhance Social Security system revenues, but will also worsen the economic status of an important segment of dual-earner couples.     

The Social Norm to Work and the Well-Being of the Short- and Long-Term Unemployed

Why are the unemployed particularly unhappy in some societies? According to the social norm theory of unemployment, the well-being of the non-employed is lower in countries with a strong social norm to work because of the greater stigma attached to unemployment. In this study, a social norm to work has been defined as the extent to which people expect others to work: do people think the unemployed should take any job they are offered, or should they have a right to refuse? The combined world and European values study and the European social survey were used to test the theory. Multilevel analyses show that—net of one’s own norm and other measures of the social norm to work, such as one’s personal work ethic—the well-being of unemployed men is lower in countries with a strong social norm to work, in particular that of the long-term unemployed. Overall, it appears that the social norm to work still weighs more heavily upon men than women.     

Gender differences in factors that influence time spent planning for retirement

Retirement research has shown that planning activities are influenced by a variety of demographic and psychological variables. However, few investigations have focused on how demographic and psychological factors influence the time and effort men and women allocate to retirement preparation. In the present study, 184 individuals completed a survey designed to assess future time perspective (FTP), worry about retirement, age, and income level. Hierarchical regression techniques were used to examine how these variables influenced the amount of time men and women spent planning for and thinking about retirement. Results revealed that women spent less time thinking about retirement than men, and gender was differentially related to the factors predictive of this activity. From an applied perspective, these findings suggest that separate retirement intervention programs are warranted that meet the unique needs of working men and women.     

Unanticipated Consequences: A Comparison of Expected and Actual Retirement Timing Among Older Women

ABSTRACT

The present study adds to the growing body of literature on women and retirement by means of a comparative analysis of the factors associated with anticipated retirement timing (among pre-retirees) and actual retirement timing (among retirees). Adopting a political economy of aging perspective, we argue that socially-structured patterns of gender inequality related to women's multiple roles across the life course affect patterns of retirement timing. Specifically, we hypothesize that the gendered nature of women's work-retirement decision-making is unanticipated during pre-retirement years. Logistic regression analyses are performed on data drawn from a sample of 275 women aged 45 and older living in the Vancouver area of British Columbia. A central finding is that while actual timing of retirement is affected by family caregiving responsibilities and by health/stress factors, pre-retirees do not perceive these to be important in their own expected retirement timing. Implications for social policy, education, and women's financial and psychological well-being in old age are elaborated.     

Working Life Expectancy at Age 50 in the United States and the Impact of the Great Recession

A key concern about population aging is the decline in the size of the economically active population. Working longer is a potential remedy. However, little is known about the length of working life and how it relates to macroeconomic conditions. We use the U.S. Health and Retirement Study for 1992–2011 and multistate life tables to analyze working life expectancy at age 50 and study the impact of the Great Recession in 2007–2009. Despite declines of one to two years following the recession, in 2008–2011, American men aged 50 still spent 13 years, or two-fifths of their remaining life, working; American women of the same age spent 11 years, or one-third of their remaining life, in employment. Although educational differences in working life expectancy have been stable since the mid-1990s, racial differences started changing after the onset of the Great Recession. Our results show that although Americans generally work longer than people in other countries, considerable subpopulation heterogeneity exists. We also find that the time trends are fluctuating, which may prove troublesome as the population ages. Policies targeting the weakest performing groups may be needed to increase the total population trends.     

The length of working life

The rapid growth of the aged population in recent years has underscored the economic problems of dependency in old age and has focused attention on the length of working life as compared to the total life span. In addition to interest in the average work-life span, students of labour-force dynamics have found a need for related measures of withdrawals from the labour force at different ages. In this paper, the author adopts the technique of the life table to a measurement of the work-life span by the construction of a table of working life.

Significant contrast is shown between total life expectancy and working life expectancy. In the United States, the average male worker at 20, for example, could expect to live for an additional 46.8 years and to remain in the labour force for an additional 41.1 years. He would therefore have to provide for almost 6 years of retirement. Significant differences are also indicated in comparisons by colour and residence. Further areas of study in applying the concept of working life are suggested.     

Unanticipated consequences: a comparison of expected and actual retirement timing among older women

The present study adds to the growing body of literature on women and retirement by means of a comparative analysis of the factors associated with anticipated retirement timing (among pre-retirees) and actual retirement timing (among retirees). Adopting a political economy of aging perspective, we argue that socially-structured patterns of gender inequality related to women's multiple roles across the life course affect patterns of retirement timing. Specifically, we hypothesize that the gendered nature of women's work-retirement decision-making is unanticipated during pre-retirement years. Logistic regression analyses are performed on data drawn from a sample of 275 women aged 45 and older living in the Vancouver area of British Columbia. A central finding is that while actual timing of retirement is affected by family caregiving responsibilities and by health/stress factors, pre-retirees do not perceive these to be important in their own expected retirement timing. Implications for social policy, education, and women's financial and psychological well-being in old age are elaborated.     

Effect of family structure on life satisfaction: australian evidence

How do family arrangements affect subjective well-being? We investigate this issue using data pooled from the IsssA and HILDA, both large, representative national samples of Australia (pooled n=38 447). Our regression analysis of cross-sectional and panel data examines how large are the differences in life satisfaction according to marital status and cohabitation. We find that women and men in formal marriages experience higher levels of life satisfaction than do people in other family arrangements. Moreover, both multiple tests in the cross-section, and tests controlling for prior happiness in the panel analysis, suggest that this is a causal relationship. Aggregating up the levels of life satisfaction generated by different marriage and cohabitation arrangements across a lifetime, suggests that a life-long marriage is the most satisfying. Early divorce followed by an enduring second marriage is little worse (because little time is spent outside the married state). But divorce without remarriage, or long lasting cohabitation without formal marriage, reduce the lifetime sum of subjective well-being by 4–12% for both women and men.     

Women and retirement planning: towards the "feminization of poverty" in an aging Hong Kong

Hong Kong's population is aging but retirement research is largely missing from the research agenda in Hong Kong. This study, based on a telephone survey of 1,078 respondents, examines middle-aged adult's retirement planning activities in Hong Kong. The findings show men are more likely to be involved in financial planning, while women are more likely to take part in some forms of health, living arrangement and psychological planning for retirement. Further, there are age, education and income differences in the various forms of retirement planning activities within genders. Women are living longer; because of their lack of financial retirement planning, they are prime candidates for poverty. The discussion concludes with policy implications related to assisting midlife individuals, in particular women, in planning for retirement.     

健康冲击、基本医疗保险与老年人“退而不休”

在我国进入深度老龄化、劳动力供给不足的背景下,探究健康以及基本医疗保险对老年人退而不休的影响对未来合理有效开发老年人力资源具有重要意义。本文使用四期CHARLS数据将健康冲击、医疗保险与老年人退而不休放在一个统一的分析框架中,分别考察了健康冲击、新农合以及城镇职工医疗保险对老年人退而不休的影响,并进一步探究了医疗保险对老年人退而不休影响的健康异质性。结果表明:健康冲击对老年人退而不休意愿和劳动时间均有显著正向促进效应,且对劳动时间的影响有明显城乡差异,对农村地区影响更大。新农合会明显激励农村老年人选择退而不休,发生比率提高为未参合时的3.59倍,但会降低劳动时间,全年平均减少了21.21天;而城镇职工医疗保险对老年人退而不休意愿没有显著影响,但会增加劳动时间,全年平均增加了13.92天,且对劳动时间供给更多的个体,其激励效应逐渐减弱。同时,医疗保险对老年人退而不休的影响还存在性别差异,其中新农合对女性退而不休意愿影响更大,但对劳动时间并没有显著的性别差异;而职工医疗保险对女性退而不休意愿、对男性劳动时间影响更大。此外,本文还发现医疗保险对老年人退而不休的影响存在健康异质性,对健康变差的群体影响更大。     

Women and Retirement Planning: Towards the “Feminization of Poverty” in an Aging Hong Kong

ABSTRACT

Hong Kong's population is aging but retirement research is largely missing from the research agenda in Hong Kong. This study, based on a telephone survey of 1,078 respondents, examines middle-aged adult's retirement planning activities in Hong Kong. The findings show men are more likely to be involved in financial planning, while women are more likely to take part in some forms of health, living arrangement and psychological planning for retirement. Further, there are age, education and income differences in the various forms of retirement planning activities within genders. Women are living longer; because of their lack of financial retirement planning, they are prime candidates for poverty. The discussion concludes with policy implications related to assisting midlife individuals, in particular women, in planning for retirement.