Care earnings in the United States and 24 European countries: The role of social policy and labour market institutions

Care occupations are gendered and remain relatively poorly paid, particularly in the United States. Prior research on the ‘care penalty’ primarily points to individual, relational, and market-valuation factors in explaining the relative earnings of care workers. This study integrates these explanations with a comparative institutional perspective. Using higher-quality data and methods than previous comparative research in the field—that is, harmonized micro-data from the Current Population Survey and EU-SILC from 2005 to 2016, country and year fixed effects models, and a counterfactual analysis—we find that national variance in labour market and welfare state institutions explains most of the difference in the relative earnings of reproductive care workers between the United States and European countries. Higher rates of collective bargaining coverage, stronger employment protection and welfare state spending contribute to higher relative earnings for reproductive care occupations, and lower relative earnings for high-status nurturant care occupations. Differences in the relative earnings of care workers appear to be mostly a construct of social policy and labour market institutions rather than individual, relational, and market-valuation factors.     

Trade frictions and productivity performance—Technological, Price, and cost competitiveness of Japan and U.S. exports

Over the last two decades Japanese industry has increased its share of world exports, and hence their competitiveness, while U.S. industry has declined in shares and competitive position. Focusing on cost competitiveness of Japanese and U.S. manufacturing exports, a model was developed to explain relative export performace of the two countries by relative technological progress and the resulting cost advantage. It is shown that technological progress and cost factors are important in determining relative exports of the two countries. It is also indicated, however, that problems for U.S. export industries in particular are not only their slower productivity growth, relative to Japanese industries, but also the lack of association of their productivity growth and cost factors with their export growth.     

Free riders and the redistributive effects of international commodity agreements: The Case of Coffeee

Most studies on the redistributive effects of international commodity agreements neglect the existence of free riders. This article shows, however, that incentives for a free rider behavior may exist under various systems of commodity control. The International Coffee Agreement includes an export quota scheme that is faced with free riders on the import side. The factors that determine the impacts of such a scheme on prices, trade, earnings, and expenditures on the world market and on welfare of importing nonmember countries are elaborated theoretically. An econometric model of the world coffee market is then used to measure the effects of coffee export quotas on different variables of the world market. By use of estimated national import demand functions for coffee, the national welfare gains of importing nonmember countries due to the quota policy of the International Coffee Agreement are also computed.     

Anchoring biases in international estimates of the value of a statistical life

U.S. labor market estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL) were the first revealed preference estimates of the VSL in the literature and continue to constitute the majority of such market estimates. The VSL estimates in U.S. studies consequently may have established a reference point for the estimates that researchers analyzing data from other countries are willing to report and that journals are willing to publish. This article presents the first comparison of the publication selection biases in U.S. and international estimates using a sample of 68 VSL studies with over 1000 VSL estimates throughout the world. Publication selection biases vary across the VSL distribution and are greater for the larger VSL estimates. The estimates of publication selection biases distinguish between U.S. and international studies as well as between government and non-government data sources. Empirical estimates that correct for the impact of these biases reduce the VSL estimates, particularly for studies based on international data. This pattern of publication bias effects is consistent with international studies relying on U.S. estimates as an anchor for the levels of reasonable estimates. U.S. estimates based on the Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries constitute the only major set of VSL studies for which there is no evidence of statistically significant publication selection effects. Adjusting a baseline bias-adjusted U.S. VSL estimate of $9.6 million using estimates of the income elasticity of the VSL may be a sounder approach for generating international estimates of the VSL than relying on direct estimates from international studies.     

Input-output technologies and the effects of tariff reductions

Using input-output (IO) tables from several developed countries (United States, EEC, and Japan) and one developing country (Brazil), we calculate the effects of tariff removal using various combinations of these tables to represent technologies for the countries included in the Michigan Computational Model of World Production and Trade. Among the IO tables, Brazil's reflected unusually high shares of value added, low labor shares, and small supply elasticities. Supply elasticities for the developed countries were somewhat lower than for the United States. Using the Michigan model, our calculated effects of tariff reductions are overstated using the U.S. IO table to represent technologies for other developed countries. Further, for developing countries that use import licensing, the model shows considerable sensitivity to IO table specification. It is especially important, therefore, for computational purposes to obtain the most accurate information possible about IO structures of developing countries.     

Game-modeling multilateral trade negotiations

Using actual trade and tariff data for the United States and the European Community, this paper demonstrates how a trade negotiation such as the Tokyo Round can be modeled as a game among countries attempting to minimize individual welfare loss functions. First, we construct welfare functions based on suggested trade negotiation goals. We compute both the noncooperative Nash-Cournot equilibrium tariffs and the cooperative Nash equilibrium implied by these welfare functions. Welfare outcomes under the computed equilibrium tariffs are then compared with those arising from the initial tariff structure, as well as the tariff structure actually determined by the negotiation. We find that, while the game model tracks closely the decisions of the negotiators in the Tokyo Round, later unilateral political decisions resulted in less optimal tariffs.     

“碳关税”对中国经济的潜在影响

近年来,一些发达国家以应对气候变化为由,提出对进口的碳排放密集型产品征收特别的CO2排放关税,并将"碳贸易限制措施"扩大为"碳关税"壁垒。"碳关税"的开征必然对我国经济、出口贸易造成严重冲击。因此,我们应该积极主动参与相关国际规则的制定,优化出口贸易结构,加强低碳技术创新,实现向低碳经济的转型,以便充分地应对"碳关税"壁垒。     

MFN tariff treatment of imports from China: Effects on U.S. employment

This article estimates the effects on U.S. output and employment of granting most-favored-nation (MFN) tariff treatment to imports from the People's Republic of China (PRC). Import demand elasticities are used to estimate changes in imports resulting from the lower tariff rates. A highly disaggregated U.S. input-output table and labor-output ratios are used to convert changes in imports into changes in domestic output and employment at a detailed sectorial level. U.S. import restraints on the textile and apparel industry are incorporated into the analysis. The article explores the implications of increased imports from the PRC for U.S., PRC, and LDC policy makers.     

Cross‐Border Earnings of U.S. Natives Along the U.S.‐Mexico Border*

Objective. This study explores whether the earnings of U.S.‐born cross‐border workers differ from those of their U.S.‐employed counterparts. We also analyze whether the cross‐border/non‐cross‐border wage differential changed during the 1990s—a decade when U.S.‐Mexico trade intensified and the maquiladora industry expanded. Methods. Employing decennial U.S. Census data from 1990 and 2000, this article estimates earnings functions and uses wage decomposition analysis to study changes in the earnings of U.S.‐born Hispanic and non‐Hispanic cross‐border workers. Results. The number of U.S.‐native cross‐border workers, while relatively small, increased significantly between 1990 and 2000, as did their earnings. A closer examination reveals that this cross‐border earnings premium only developed among non‐Hispanics. Conclusions. These findings indicate that some U.S. natives find lucrative employment opportunities on the Mexican side of the border, which might be diminished by additional restrictions for U.S.‐born residents to easily cross back and forth into Mexico.     

Mothers' postdivorce earnings in the context of welfare policy change

We examined in this study the implications of divorce for mothers' earnings, comparing the 1990s and the 2000s, and illuminating developments in welfare policy for single‐parent families over those two decades. After the welfare reform of 2003, the economic autonomy of single mothers, established through a combination of welfare state‐based benefits and paid labour, was delegitimised, with a turn toward the marketplace. Using a unique data set created for this research by merging Israeli census files for 1995–2008, annual administrative employment records from the National Insurance Institute and the Tax Authority, and data from the Civil Registry of Divorce, we found that most mothers tended to increase their income from paid labor following divorce. However, they did so significantly more prior to the welfare cuts than after the cuts. The results can inform policy discussions about how mothers' postdivorce earnings might be affected by welfare policy shifts.     

United States trade and possible restrictions in high-technology products

This paper assesses the changing U.S. competitive position in high-technology products, and examines reasons for changes. It then inquires into the potential value of restrictive trade policies for promoting the U.S. interest in this sector, including mutual restrictions between the U.S., the EC, and Japan. The paper shows that the U.S. market share in most high-technology products, while still high, is declining. While industrial policy in other countries may have been a facilitating factor in this adverse development, the main explanation appears to lie in changing factor endowments, particularly the marked increase in the human capital/labor endowment ratios of Japan and Germany relative to that of the United States. When considering all the criteria relevant to trade policy, the differences between the high-technology industries bring into question the validity of lumping them into one sector for the purpose of strategic trade policy. Each industry needs to be treated separately. Their main common characteristic is intensity in human capital input. When they are viewed as one sector, a move to redress the declining U.S. lead calls for a domestic rather than a trade policy: massive U.S. investment in human capital and in research and development of the post-sputnik variety.     

服务于天气预报研究的超级计算机投资收益分析

在资源方面的潜在投资的几种成本收益分析方法方面，有几种适用于计算成本收益的经济学方法：（1）效益转移法；（2）基于调查的非市场价值评估法；（3）折扣法；（4）统计生命价值法；（5）专家启发法；（6）影响因素图表法；（7）敏感性分析法等。根据2003年进行的一项研究，特地评估了为美国国家海洋和大气管理局所购买的新的超级计算机设备的潜在收益。该超级计算机不仅有助于改进天气预报服务，而且能使许多经济部门潜在获益，如各种政府机构、一些私营工业部门和单个家庭住户等。通过咨询美国国家海洋和大气管理局的工作人员可知，这些经济部门主要集中在家庭住户、某些农作物和公共安全等领域。美国国家海洋和大气管理局购买的新的超级计算机潜在的社会效益是显著的。基于一些前提假设，仅家庭住户所得到的收益大约在3400万到23200万美元（以2002年美元为基准）之间。某些农业经济部门所获得的收益与避免因天气原因导致死亡的潜在收益一样多。这三个部门的平均总收益的现值约为11600万美元（以2002年美元为基准）。而这仅为总收益额的下限，因为它尚不包含其它几个也具有重要收益价值的行业，如建筑和能源行业等。美国国家海洋和大气管理局投资购买新型超级计算机的收益净现值约为10500万美元（以2002年美元为基准）。     

The challenges of poverty and social welfare in the Caribbean

Poverty and related social problems have presented a long-standing challenge to policy makers and development planners throughout the Caribbean. This article is a social primer on anti-poverty strategies and welfare programmes established in Caribbean countries. It presents a comprehensive overview of poverty and attendant problems, discusses the social welfare approach and poverty reduction strategies, and outlines practical proposals for pursuing social development.     

Mexican Immigrant Self‐Employment Along the U.S.‐Mexico Border: An Analysis of 2000 Census Data*

Objective. This study explores the entrepreneurial tendencies of Mexican immigrants in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) on the U.S. side of the Mexican border vis‐à‐vis the U.S. interior. Methods. Using 2000 Census data available in the 5% Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, we empirically analyze the self‐employment rates and earnings of Mexican immigrants residing in U.S. cities near Mexico versus those in nonborder MSAs. Results. Our findings indicate that Mexican immigrants in MSAs along the U.S.‐Mexico border have significantly higher self‐employment rates (but lower earnings) than their counterparts in the rest of the United States and non‐Hispanic whites in border cities. Explanations for these findings include the existence of trade opportunities in U.S. border cities as well as intense labor market competition that crowds a greater share of immigrants into self‐employment. Conclusion. Immigration reform that curtails the immigration flow from Mexico might hinder small business formation and economic development on the U.S. side of the Mexican border.     

论东北地区外贸发展方式创新

外贸发展方式创新,是我国"十二五"时期经济发展方式转变的重大而关键的任务。长期以来,东北地区外贸发展主要依据传统的比较优势理论,以出口数量扩张、劳动密集型产品出口和低价格战略形成竞争优势。目前,面临后金融危机影响,全球经济增长乏力、大宗商品价格高企、资源环境压力加大、出口难度增加,更显露出其粗放性和难以持续性。东北地区外贸发展亟待打破原有传统贸易理论束缚,创新外贸发展方式,即从扩大出口创汇转向提高经济效益上来,从粗放式增长转向集约式增长上来,从出口创汇型转向依靠国际化经营能力上来。要遵循国际贸易规则,创新对外贸易制度安排;发挥东北地区优势,开拓多元化国际市场;优化出口产品结构,积极引导产业升级;加强与周边国家和地区的合作,促进外贸经济协调发展;集合各方力量,积极应对贸易摩擦。     

基于"环境优先"贸易保护论的国际营销对策

随着进口关税的下降,国际贸易透明度的提高,传统的贸易保护进一步受到有效限制,贸易保护主义正在积极寻求新的贸易保护手段,以实施其贸易保护战略。新兴的贸易保护手段多种多样,利用环保例外权的合法性进行贸易保护则是近年来发达国家常用的方法。这一保护方式以保护环境为出发点制定了一系列保护措施,以抵消发展中国家在资源与廉价劳动力方面的比较优势,从而阻碍了发展中国家的产品出口,作为发展中国家的中国企业要在充分认识“环境优先”贸易保护理论及其做法的基础上,采取有效的国际营销对策削弱这一贸易壁垒对企业的影响。     

美欧债务危机应对路径的国际比较研究

美欧发达国家政府的债务危机问题已越来越严重,逐渐引起了包括发展中国家在内的世界各国的广泛关注。面对此次危机,美欧各国都相继采取了各种财政、货币政策措施加以应对,由于各国国情各异,采取的措施和取得的效果也不同。通过分析美欧国家债务危机产生的原因,列举美欧应对危机采取的措施,并对其进行分析比较,得出了主权债务危机给中国发展的几点启示。     

From oil shortage to oil glut: Simulation of growth prospects in the Nigerian economy

During the 1970s, the economy of Nigeria provided one of the most interesting cases of development financed through oil revenue. Between 1970 and 1980, the country's GNP grew at an outstanding rate—after the transition from oil shortage to oil glut, the economy of Nigeria ran into dramatic financial difficulties, which are now placing major constraints to its development. To investigate the transition from an oil-based economy to a stage characterized by greater diversification of exports and more balanced sectoral growth, a model has been built by the University of Ibadan in Nigeria. The model was developed in association with Project LINK staffing for the future inclusion in the Project. According to the finding presented in the study, the annual growth rate of GDP of Nigeria between 1980 and 1988 will be around 2.5 percent. To compensate the drop of the foreign exchange earnings caused by the contraction of oil prices and demand, a vigorous export drive of agricultural products is simulated.     

Microfinance, the Labour Market and Social Inclusion: A Tale of Three Cities

Great hopes have been held out for microfinance and other community development finance institutions (CDFIs) in industrialized countries as an instrument of “financially sustainable welfare provision”, following on from their success in many developing countries. Using interview data drawn from an exploratory sample of 45 clients, this paper examines the social and economic impact of three microfinance institutions in Glasgow, Sheffield and Belfast. The tentative conclusion is that most loans we examined do hit the target of the “financially excluded but bankable”, and exert an impact on poverty and social exclusion through the labour market and through helping to build social networks which reduce interpersonal risk. Our initial estimate is that each loan studied here was responsible for about 0.67 exits from unemployment over the two years 2000–2. If this ratio holds good outside the sample (and we emphasize the limitations of small sample size), this could mean that in the absence of microfinance services, the national unemployment total would be higher by some 2.4 per cent (or 22,000 individuals). The loans we have examined also save about £0.4 million on what would otherwise have been social security payments; grossed up again to all microfinance organizations, this implies an annual saving of about £250 million (1.4 per cent) on the total social security budget. However, to achieve this optimal impact microfinance institutions need to diversify their product: for example by switching from business loans into consumption loans, micro‐insurance, and equity, particularly in the rehabilitation of run‐down council estates.     

The Urban Geography of Welfare Reform: Spatial Patterns of Caseload Dynamics in Detroit

Objective . To assess how the characteristics of welfare recipients have varied geographically in the Detroit metropolitan area since the passage of welfare reform in 1996 and how spatial proximity to job opportunities is related to work rates among welfare recipients. Methods . Using administrative data on welfare receipt in the Detroit metropolitan area and data from two employer surveys in Detroit, I examine changes in the welfare caseload between 1992 and 2000 and estimate logit models of the probability that welfare recipients report work earnings in 1998. Results . Although the number of adult welfare recipients in the Detroit metropolitan area declined by over 75 percent between 1992 and 2000, nearly 25,000 households—most residing in the central city—continue to receive welfare. Rates of work among welfare recipients are positively related to the accessibility of employment opportunities. Conclusions . My results indicate that support services and programs in the coming years will have to fit a caseload that is changing both qualitatively and geographically. Further, consistent with the most current spatial mismatch research, my findings show that greater access to job opportunities leads to greater rates of reported work earnings among welfare recipients.