A Markov Chain for calculating the durability of marriage

The usual Markov model of marriage permits informative experiments on the effect of alterations in the transition rules. It can tell, for example, what difference it would make to the durability of marriage if there was no divorce and the other transitions were as observed. This is in addition to the capacity of the usual model to find the effect of small changes in the transition rates.

Canadian data for 1970–1982 permit comparisons over time, and show among other things not only that married men live longer than single, but that the difference is increasing; the increase in the “marriage bonus”; over time also appears for women.     

A method for calculating rates of induced abortion

Accurate measurement of induced abortion is necessary for understanding the fertility dynamics of a population and for making projections about the future. Changes in abortion rates can amplify or dampen the impact of changes in contraception. This paper presents a methodology for calculating marital induced abortion rates from observed marital fertility and contraceptive prevalence and for modeling the impact of substituting contraception for abortion on future fertility. The methodology is validated against observed abortion complications in three populations, and the impact of substituting contraception for abortion on expected fertility is demonstrated.     

A marriage trichotomy and its applications

This paper promotes research methods specific to men, the new focus of fertility and family planning studies (especially in sub-Saharan Africa). I propose a novel marriage categorization based on married men’s intentions to take another wife. The three marriage groups are currently monogamous men who intend to remain so, currently monogamous men who intend to become polygynous, and currently polygynous men. The first analysis demonstrates that typical marriage analyses may misclassify men who intend to become polygynous. Applications of the marriage trichotomy illustrate that men with varying marital intentions have differing desires regarding fertility and family planning.     

A fertility analysis of New Zealand marriage cohorts

New Zealand annual returns of non-Maori live legitimate births 1913 to 1955 were tabulated longitudinally by marriage duration and birth order. The figures were used as numerators of fertility rates of forty marriage cohorts, specific for duration and birth order ; the twenty-four oldest cohorts had virtually completed fertility. For the denominators of the rates, the cohorts of initial size (estimated by a method similar to that described by P. H. Karmel) were survived by observing changes over time through divorce, death, widowhood, war-widowhood, and net external migration. The aim was to provide a set of data of the best possible approximation on variations of cohort fertility.

Total cohort rates, cumulated for twenty years’ duration of marriage, and segmental rates of relevant sub-periods are given for parities o to 7+. Total rates of the cohorts of completed fertility yielded values of family size, and were also used for parity progression ratios (by L. Henry’s formula). Segmental rates permitted a study of changes in timing maternities.

The analysis, which needs as a corollary a nuptiality analysis, is concerned, so far with past experience. It confirms the decline in number and proportion of large families. Both the parity progression ratios, and segmental rates of cohorts of as yet incomplete fertility, suggest some recent recovery in three- and fourchild families. For total fertility, such recovery might even be more significant than the observed decline in large families. On the other hand, birth-order specific changes in timing suggest lengthening of intervals among older cohorts as a trend upon which is superimposed the fluctuation due to postponement of, and recovery of a portion of postponed maternities. A construction of hypothetical timing patterns for incomplete cohorts by a simplified method of projection does not lead very far without support of observations on spacing that differentiate for family size.     

A refined estimator of measures of location of the age at first marriage

Because of bias of unknown sign and extent introduced by age misreporting when calculating the singulate mean age of marriage in the usual manner, Van de Walle has suggested a fairly robust estimator based on stable population structure. Unfortunately not much is known about the properties of this estimator. Various demographers have argued informally that it indeed estimates the SMAM; others feel that it instead estimates the mean age of marriage in a cohort, the mean age of marriage in the stable population, or the singulate median age of marriage. In this paper the properties of this estimator are examined. Further, extensions of the Van de Walle estimator based on regression are shown to be significantly superior to the estimator alone.     

Age patterns of marriage

Abstract In different populations there is a common curve describing first-marriage frequency (first marriages per woman) as a function of age for each cohort. To fit the variety of patterns of human nuptiality it suffices to choose the age that serves as origin for a standard curve of first-marriage frequency, and to choose appropriate horizontal and vertical scales for the curve. The prevalence of a standard form for first-marriage frequency implies that the proportion ever-married in any cohort also rises along a standard curve, subject to choice of origin (the earliest age of first marriage), vertical scale (the proportion ever-marrying by the end of life), and horizontal scale (the pace at which the proportion ever-married increases with age). A mathematical expression (a double exponential) is found to fit the risk offirst marriage (among those who ever marry), and some of the implications of uniform features of nuptiality in different populations are discussed.     

Measuring the tightness of a marriage squeeze

The “marriage squeeze,” or the effect on marriage of an imbalance between the numbers of males and females, has been seen as having a great influence on contemporary marriage behavior. Nonetheless, the literature does not contain a clear definition of exactly what a marriage squeeze is and contains few quantitative estimates of its impact on marriage. The present article provides a precise definition of the marriage squeeze in equation (2), and applies it to measure both artificially produced marriage squeezes in two-sex nuptiality stable populations and the experience of the United States during the period 1950–1990. The marriage squeeze is shown to be capable of producing significant changes in both the level and distribution of marriage, and it appears to be having such an impact in some contemporary Third World societies. For developed     

The institution of marriage

The institution of marriage is both old and ubiquitous. Yet, little work has been done by economists on why this social institution exists and why throughout history it has been intimately linked to fertility. We explain the institution of marriage as a societal consensus on the need to curb cuckoldry for the purpose of paternity certainty and biparental investment in offspring. By raising the costs of mating to individuals, marriage reduces cheating in society, a source of mating market failure, and makes paternity more certain. Men, in consequence, invest more in their putative offspring, a fact that also benefits mothers.     

A discrete-time two-sex age-specific stochastic population program incorporating marriage

A discrete-time two-sex stochastic population model is developed. All entities (single males, single females, or couples) are grouped according to their ages, and during a unit time interval, each entity has a choice of several outcomes with fixed conditional probabilities. The model assumes that the number of marriages between men aged x and women aged y is equal to the minimum of the number of men aged x desiring marriage with a woman aged y and the number of women aged y desiring marriage with a man aged x. It follows that if a large excess of males of a11 ages is maintained in the population, the female component grows as a multi-type Galton-Watson process. Under such circumstances, the females have perfect freedom in their choice of marriage partner, and the use of a multi-type Galton-Watson process is very realistic. The same result is true for the male component of the population. Ir there are no males (or females) , no marriages take place, so the model is realistic on this score also. A complex computer program is described, and a detailed numerical example given.     

Interracial marriage: Data for Philadelphia and Pennsylvania

Our knowledge of interracial marriage in the United States is fragmentary, inadequate and fraught with contradictions. A major methodological finding of this study, discovered by a comparison of statistical records for Philadelphia (1960-1962 and 1965-1966) with marriage license applications, is that there has been a 32 percent error in reporting mixed race cases. The full significance of this as regards existing data can only be conjectured at present. In Pennsylvania, it would seem, areas of high concentration of nonwhites show the lowest intermarriage rates. In the state, excluding Philadelphia, about 3 out of 4 mixed marriages involve nonwhite males; in Philadelphia, the figure is 52 percent. To some extent nonresidents seem to be attracted to Philadelphia for their intermarriages; but, on the other hand, a considerable number of the 84 percent who are residents declare to having the same address. As measured by the interval from application to performance of the ceremony, they do not marry in haste, nor do they show a strong urge to use their license elsewhere in the state. There is no remarkable age disparity for these couples. They do marry somewhat later—about 2 years later for those who are entering upon their first (primary) marriage; and a large proportion of the couples show a prior divorce experience. These data for Philadelphia and Pennsylvania disclose a tendency, noticed also in other studies, for the rate of such marriages to increase, so that now about 2 percent of Philadelphia and nearly 5 percent of Pennsylvania nonwhites are marrying interracially.     

Improvement of contraception during the course of marriage

Contraceptive effectiveness is conventionally measured by a pregnancy rate, which reveals little about the way in which pregnancy risks vary among couples. In this paper a technique is presented for estimating curves of pregnancy risk. The technique is applied to data from the Family Growth in Metropolitan America study for purposes of estimating how much these couples would have to Improve their initial contraception In order to realize, by contraception alone, the calibre of family limitation claimed by respondents late in their childbearing period. A very substantial improvement Is estimated as necessary.

It Is also argued that the notable increase In contraceptive effectiveness before and after second birth, observed for couples desiring only two children is attributable mainly to a more regular practice of contraception. Changes Iin method preference, decline in average fecundabillty and increased contraceptive skill are viewed as secondary factors.     

Economic analysis of same-sex marriage

This article applies the neoclassical microeconomic analysis of marriage as developed by Nobel laureate economist Gary Becker to same-sex marriage. The objective is to demonstrate that the economic analysis of marriage supports allowing same-sex marriage, and that same-sex marriages would strengthen the incentive to marry, increase the efficiency of marriage markets, provide for more children to be raised in two-parent optimum environments, and benefit states economically overall. The article concludes with an overview of the economic impact of same-sex marriages on states based on the analysis, data and fiscal information currently available from researchers and economists in the field.     

Cohabitation and marriage in the 1980s

Using cohabitation and marriage histories collected in 1985 from 23-year-old women and men, this study investigates the process of union formation, considering transitions from single life into cohabitation and marriage. The outcomes of cohabitation are also considered--both the dissolution of unions and the transformation of cohabiting unions into marriage. These data indicate that large proportions of men and women experience cohabitation fairly early in the life course. At the same time, many cohabiting unions are dissolved fairly quickly and numerous others are soon transformed into marriages. Thus even though cohabitation will be experienced by many, most people will continue to spend substantially more time in marital unions than in cohabiting unions.     

A study of Irish county marriage rates, 1961-1966

Abstract This article considers a group of models of Irish county marriage rates. Some of these models account for the major part of the inter-county variation in male and female marriage rates in terms of the influence of a limited number of socio-economic variables. The sex ratio of the unmarried population in the counties plays a key role in all of the models: the female marriage rate tends to be raised, and the male rate lowered, by a high ratio of males to females in the unmarried population. Male rates appear to increase under more favourable economic conditions, as measured by county income per person, while female rates appear to be lowered by increased female participation in the labour force. In addition to these separate influences on male and female rates, a recursive model in which there is a one-way influence from male to female rates, and a simultaneous-equation model, in which male and female rates are fully interdependent, were tested. The performance of the tested recursive model was particularly satisfactory.     

Health-related interactions and the self in marriage

This study investigated the association between self processes and married partners' (N = 59 couples) perspectives of their health-related social interactions. Findings revealed that wives' self processes were associated with their social behavior from the perspective of each partner. The wives' self processes differentially predicted wives' and husbands' perspectives of their interactions, however. These findings demonstrate that wives' future expectations for the health of their husband, as well as for their role in maintaining his future health, motivate their current social behavior to promote the positive health lifestyle behaviors of their husband.     

Demography of the marriage market in the United States

In this paper, a new index designed to measure the relative availability of unmarried men and women is introduced. Termed the "Availability Ratio," the measure is defined as the number of suitable persons divided by the average competition. Suitability, in turn, is defined in terms of race, age and education. After various experimental tests, particular age and eeducational constraints were empirically derived from marriage data. Persons of opposite sex sharing living quarters are tested as unavailable. Estimates are also made of those presumed to be unsuitable on the basis of the % of persons aged 45-74 who have never married. Adjustments for the census undercount are given. 1980 and 1970 estimates are presented for the US population. Subsequent analyses will focus on metropolitan areas, which are more likely to function as actual marriage markets in contrast to the nation as a whole. The substantive evidence indicates that women under 25 are in a good position to find a mate, but that after this age, their prospects deteriorate rapidly. The outlook is especially poor for the more educated women at older ages, especially black women. At ages 40-49, for example, there are fewer than 3 suitable men available for every 10 college-educated women. The results suggest that the combination of preferences of women for older men (or men's tastes for younger women), combined with higher survival rates for women at older ages, results in a very unbalanced market situationn for all but the youngest cohorts of men and women.     

Catholicism and marriage in the united states

This study examines the effects of a Catholic background on age at first marriage, the odds of never marrying, and the odds of ever divorcing. Estimates using Catholic upbringing are compared with estimates using Catholic at the time of the survey. A case is made that if the latter measure of Catholicism is used, serious selection bias problems occur in some cases because this measure excludes defectors and includes converts. Further, it is shown that a Catholic upbringing generally has no effect on men’s age at first marriage and has a positive effect on the age when women marry. It is also shown that older Baptist men are substantially more likely than Catholic men to experience a divorce. Older Catholic women are somewhat less likely to experience a divorce than non-Baptist Protestant women. There is no Catholic effect on the odds that younger men and women will divorce.     

Child gender and the transition to marriage

We estimate the effect of a child's gender on the mother's probability of marriage or remarriage using data from the PSID Marital History and Childbirth and Adoption History Files. We find that the birth of a son speeds the transition into marriage when the child is born before the mother's first marriage. A competing-risks analysis shows that the positive effect of a son is stronger for marriages to the child's biological father than for other marriages. We find no significant effect of child gender on the mother's remarriage probabilities when the children are born within a previous marriage. These results are consistent with a marital-search model in which sons, more than daughters, increase the value of marriage relative to single parenthood.     

A useful method of calculating age-specific fertility rates]

The practical use of mathematical formulas on the Chinese birth rate as broken down into age groups is analyzed. Through the use of mathematical formulas which are changed to accommodate various parameters, the report comes to 3 conclusions. 1st, the death rate among childbearing women from year T-1 to year T fits the normal distribution. 2nd, the birth rate by age for year T-1 for the above childbearing women seems to be equal to the birth rate by age in year T for all childbearing women. 3rd, every woman who died during childbirth gave birth to 1 live child in the year T-1. The main finding of the report, however, is that formula (1), when used to calculate the birth population for 1981, is quite satisfactory. This finding is supported by the fact that based on the data for 1982 from the general population survey, the birth population in 1981 as calculated by formula (1) is 20,713,434 persons. This figure is higher by 23,730 persons than the figure of 20,689,704 persons which was obtained from the general survey. The relative calculation error is 1.15%. Considering that this error absorbs the impact of 1.83% lost birth registration reports and an error in the number of women by age for 1981, the formula is sufficient.