从农村向城镇流动人口的特征分析

20 0 0年人口普查数据显示 90年代是我国城镇人口增加最快的时期。城镇人口快速增加的主要原因是农村富余劳动力向城镇转移。本文利用 1 999年人口变动抽样调查数据 ,分析和探讨从农村向城镇流动人口的社会经济及人口特征 ,得出了一些有意义的结论     

乡村—城镇人口迁移对人口自然变动的影响及估测

<正> 农村人口向城镇地区集聚的过程,不仅影响着城乡两地的社会经济发展,也影响着两地人口的变动。就其对人口变动的影响而言,乡村——城镇人口迁移不仅直接影响到城乡两地的人口增长速度和人口空间的再分布过程,也影响着城乡人口年龄、性別等构成的变动。更为重要的是,迁移还直接影响迁移人口的生育观念和生育行为,从而更进一步地影响到妇女生育水平的变化和总人口的变动。随着乡村——城镇人口迁移规模的扩大,它对人口变动的影响也日趋显著,本文仅就乡村城镇人口迁移影响妇女生育水平,进而影响总人口变动这一方面,进行分析探讨。     

中国城镇人口增长宏观分析

<正> 城市化程度是国家经济社会发展水平的重要标志,城镇人口增长来源分布更是制定经济和社会发展计划的重要国情资料。城市化过程中的人口增长,一般由城市人口的自然增长、来自农村的人口迁入、农村迁入人口的自然增长以及新建市镇和原有市镇扩大辖区范围所增加的人口等四部分组成。中国虽有完整的户口登记制度,逐日登记城乡人口出生、死亡、迁移等人口变动,定期汇总逐级上报。惟因登记簿册浩瀚,又限于手工汇总,所以只能提供人口变动大端资料。较为细致数据如城镇人口增长来源分布等则付厥如。第四次人口普查资料所提供的城镇人口数字,反映中国城市化的实际水平,本文拟以此为基准,结合作者的调查资料,使用间接推计方法,计算出城镇人口增长的来源分布。所得结果尽管是匡算数据,然而所依基准科学合理,所以在很大程度上近似实际。     

中国乡城人口流动与城镇出生人口性别比——基于“五普”数据的分析

本文利用中国第五次人口普查1‰抽样数据,以城镇区域人口为重点,定量分析了农村人口流动对城镇地区人口出生性别比,以及农村流入城镇人口子女性别的影响。研究发现,中国农村未流动人口、农村流入城镇人口和城镇非农村流入人口的出生性别比均偏离了出生性别比的正常水平,农村人口流动影响了城镇地区生育性别,农村流入城镇人口相对较强的男孩偏好观念加剧了城镇地区出生性别比偏高。     

基于六普、五普的城镇化人口统计数据修补

由于城镇人口统计口径频繁变化,导致主要年度之间不同口径城镇化人口比重数据出现差值,必须进行科学修正,而已有的修正方案均存在一定缺陷。本文根据我国现有城镇人口数据特点提出了更完善的城镇人口比重数据修正方案:其一,以月度作为两个代表期间的细分时段,利用联合国城镇人口比重预测法估算期间各年度城镇化理论值;其二,再以各年度基于人口变动抽查的城镇化速度对城镇化理论值进行校正,得到既具有同一统计口径又反映年度实际波动的各年度城镇人口比重数据。并且利用该方案对1991～1999年、2006～2009年城镇人口比重数据进行了有效修正。     

"四普"至"五普"间中国城镇人口增长构成分析

利用 1 990年第四次人口普查和 2 0 0 0年第五次人口普查的资料 ,对在“四普”至“五普”间中国城镇人口增长构成进行了分析。分析结果表明 ,在新增长的城镇人口中 ,有 5 2 %是来自于地域的重新划分 ,有 31 %是来自于人口从农村向城镇的迁移 ,来自于城镇人口自然增长的只有 1 7%。本文认为 ,未来中国的城市化应当主要依靠人口从农村向城镇的迁移 ,因此 ,采取有效的政策和措施 ,解决好从农村迁移到城镇的人口的就业和生活 ,使他们能够顺利向城镇转移 ,这对于 2 1世纪中国城市化的发展至关重要。     

中国农业“人口红利”正在消失——基于随机前沿模型的检验

本文运用了随机前沿分析方法,根据全国三十个省、直辖市和自治区1990—2009年的省级面板数据对中国农业劳动力的利用率进行了估算。主要估算结果包括：1、中国农业劳动力利用率增长显著,从1990年全国平均68．1％上升到2009年全国平均84％。这说明我国农业劳动力虽仍有剩余,但向其他产业转移空间已经不大。如果延续目前劳动力利用率的增长速度,“人口红利”对经济增长的推动作用将在几年内消失;2、各地区的劳动力利用率及其变动趋势有明显差异,表明不同地区对“人口红利”的贡献有所不同：3、在1990—2009年期间中国农业产出的平均就业弹性趋近于零。     

基于状态转移矩阵（STM）旗型的城镇职工基本养老保险制度可持续性研究

本文应用系统工程的理论方法,通过构建状态转移矩阵（STM）模型,定量分析了人口“城乡-年龄”结构联动对城镇职工基本养老保险制度可持续性的影响机理．研究表明城镇职工基本养老保险制度的可持续性受到“农村人口、农民工和城镇人口”数量及其结构变动、“未成年人口、劳动年龄人口、老年人口”数量及其结构变动的双重影响。基于模型推导结果和研究结论,本文提出实现城镇职工基本养老保险制度的可持续发展的相关对策建议．以期为加快建立覆盖城乡居民的养老保险体系提供决策依据和实践参考。     

经济转型与中国人口职业结构的变动

90年代中国社会经济进入了新的转型期，人口职业结构也正在发生相应的变动。本文试图利用1990年第四次人口普查资料和1995年1％人口抽样调查数据，以劳动力市场分割理论为基础，分析和阐释人口职业结构变动特征及其与经济转型之间的潜在联系，从而深入了解人口职业变动的特点及其动因。     

1990年代中国生育水平研究

1990年代我国的生育水平究竟是多少,这一直是个谜。本文利用中国一直独立存在的严密而周全的教育统计数据,来估计2000年人口普查中的漏报,最终估计我国1990年代的生育水平。通过教育统计数据对人口普查数据进行调整,重构2000年普查0~9岁人口的年龄性别结构;并将2000年0~9岁人口转换为1991~2000年历年的出生人数,进而估算1990年代我国的生育水平。从推算和估计的结果看,我国1991年生育率达到更替水平,之后进一步下降,低于更替水平。1990年代后期我国的总和生育率在1.7~1.8。     

Differentials in divorce in maryland

The basic data needed for measurement of the risks of termination of the legal relationship of marriage by characteristics of the marital partners are not available at this time for the United States because the national divorce registration area includes less than half the States. Special studies based on selected census data or the records of marriages and divorces occurring in one State or community have provided much of the valuable but limited information at hand. Statistics for individual States are subject to substantial bias as a consequence of inter-State migration between time of marriage and time of divorce, but they must serve as a basic data source until national reporting has improved. A record linkage study was undertaken which tied marriages occurring in the State of Maryland in 1959 with divorces occurring in the State in the years 1959–66. Relative, not actual, divorce risks by race, age at marriage, and previous marital status were calculated for couples with at least one partner an in-State resident at the time of marriage. The dissolution rate was higher for whites than for nonwhites. Marriages contracted by persons at very youthful ages and by persons who had been married previously were found subject to greater than average risks of dissolution through divorce.     

城市计划生育技术服务方式创新--南京市玄武区政府购买计划生育技术服务的实践

建立政府牵头、计卫联手、资源共享的计划生育技术服务体系 ,开展以知识普及、知情选择、随访服务、咨询指导、健康促进为主要内容的计划生育避孕节育和生殖保健优质服务 ,最大限度地满足社区育龄群众在计划生育和生殖保健方面的需求 ,是城市计划生育技术服务改革发展的方向1 。近几年 ,南京市玄武区计划生育局在区委、区政府的领导以及省市计生委的支持下 ,根据新时期城市计划生育工作改革发展要求 ,积极推进政府计划生育部门的职能转变 ,探索计划生育技术服务方式的改革创新 ,尝试依托社区医疗卫生和妇幼保健服务网络 ,由政府购买计划生育…     

Increases in childlessness in New Zealand

New Zealand’s fertility fell below the theoretical replacement level (2.1 births per woman) for the first time in recorded history in 1978. It has hovered at or below replacement level ever since. The result, an impression of relative stability, belies changes taking place. Data from the 1981, 1996 and 2006 censuses show a pattern of delayed childbearing and increased childlessness. In a little over 30 years, childlessness has shifted from being almost entirely a consequence of a couple’s infecundity to being as frequently a result of a woman’s life choices. The steady rises in childlessness recorded by successive cohorts suggest that childlessness is already having a significant effect on New Zealand fertility. Patterns in characteristics of those women choosing not to start families, as well as subtle differences in these patterns between New Zealand and other developed nations, suggest that there is a significant potential for childlessness to cause a more dramatic shift in New Zealand’s total fertility rate. This analysis examines growth in childlessness in relation to marital status, country of birth, ethnicity, regional and urban differentials, religion, and educational attainment of women who were childless at the 1981, 1996 and 2006 censuses.

论西部开发中的城市发展问题

本文在对近20年来我国城市发展进行回顾与反思的基础上,提出了西部制定城市发展战略和选择城市发展道路的基本原则以及若干城市发展对策措施.     

Major Tasks in Health and Family Planning in China in 2015

On January 12,2015,at the regular press briefing of National Health and Family Planning Commission(NHFPC),NHFPC reported the major tasks in health and family planning in China in 2015.The details are as follows:In-depth Development of Medical and Health System Reform In-depth Development of Medical and Health System Reform.     

Trends in life expectancy in wellbeing

Objectives: This paper describes anddiscusses trends in life expectancy inwellbeing between 1989 and 1998.Methods: Data on wellbeing by theBradburn Affect Balance Scale is obtained fromthe Netherlands Continuous Health InterviewSurveys for the calendar years from 1989 to1998. Using Sullivan's method, life expectancyin wellbeing is calculated.Results: For males at the age of 16, lifeexpectancy in wellbeing increases significantlyfrom 52.7 years in 1989 (90.1% of the totallife expectancy) to 54.4 years in 1998(90.8%). This increase is almost completelycaused by the increase in total lifeexpectancy. For females at the age of 16, lifeexpectancy in wellbeing raises significant from54.4 years in 1989 (84.1%) to 56.2 years in1998 (86.3%). This increase is almostcompletely caused by a decrease in the numberof years in a state of distress.For both males and females at the age of 65,the significant increase of life expectancy inwellbeing exceeds the increase in total lifeexpectancy and is mainly caused by the decreasein number of years in distress.Conclusion: Contrary to life expectancyin good perceived health and to disability freelife expectancy – which show a decreasing trend– the overall wellbeing of the population isincreasing. It seems that aspects in human lifethat contribute to wellbeing or quality of lifeother than physical health are gaining inimportance. This makes life expectancy inwellbeing a less appropriate instrument tomonitor changes in population health, but auseful instrument to measure population qualityof life.     

Materialism in Pedagogy Students in Chile

Many studies have used Richins and Dawson’s (J Consum Res 19: 303–316, 1992) Material Values Scale (MVS), applying it to different types of populations that exhibit a particular psychometric behavior, and showing little stability in their factorial structure. In the present study, 1,070 pedagogy students from the northern, central and southern regions of Chile answered the MVS. This sample was randomly divided in two. Using the first sub-sample (N = 539), an exploratory factorial analysis was carried out, from which a structure of nine items was grouped into two factors called “Social Success” and “Personal Happiness”, which presented adequate reliability. Later, with the second sub-sample (N = 531), the factorial structure indicated above was put to the test through a confirmatory factorial analysis. The data from the model show that the scale contains 8 items in total, grouped into two dimensions. The factorial loads are significant at the level of 1 %, which indicates that the 2-factor structure can be confirmed. Finally—using the proposed structure—the presence of the students’ material values was evaluated.     

Shifts in Reproductive Patterns in China

The People's Republic of China, during the second half of the twentieth century, has been repeatedly affected by social and political upheavals associated with government policies. These have produced strong but unexpected impacts on Chinese demographic patterns. Many of these policies are of the sorts that alter reproductive costs and benefits. This study examines patterns in Hebei, Shaanxi, and Shanghai, three provinces with differing ecological, geographic, and economic characteristics. Government policies affected the three populations differentially; this was evident at both aggregate and individual levels. The Great Leap Forward and subsequent famine created higher birth deficits and mortality among the largely rural populations of Hebei and Shaanxi than the more urban Shanghai. In contrast, the Cultural Revolution and family planning resulted in lower fertility levels for women in Shanghai. The population history of China during the second half of last century thus reflects strong state interventions in the lives of its citizens. Government policies, along with regional variations in geographic, social, and economic conditions, strongly influence individual access to resources in China. Variations in timing and intensity of women's reproductive patterns reflect differential access to resources and subsequent trade-offs.     

"非典"期间全国农村地区跨省流入人口调查数据分析

在2003年抗击非典的关键时期,国家人口和计划生育委员会进行了全国农村地区跨省流入人口的调查.本文着重分析这项调查所获得的数据,并对数据的一致性做出说明.既揭示了我国农村流动人口的基本特征和非典时期农村人口流动的规模和流向特点,又反映了非典对这一时期全国人口的流动所产生的影响,同时展示了我国抗击非典工作在农村地区所取得的成绩.     

Changes in Living Standards and Depopulation in Latvia in the 1990s

Social Indicators Research -