世纪之交俄罗斯东北地区人口发展状况研究

20世纪90年代,俄罗斯政治经济领域发生的深刻变革使其国内的社会经济条件发生了改变,同时,也直接影响到俄罗斯个别地区乃至整个国家的人口发展。本文对俄罗斯东北地区1990年至2014年的人口分布与发展特点进行研究。研究结果显示,人口的流出以及自然增长率下降是导致俄罗斯东北地区人口衰减的主要原因,而出生率和死亡率的变化与东北地区人口的年龄结构也有着紧密的联系。     

非洲的人口动态与分布

非洲的人口动态长期以来具有高出生率、高死亡率的特点,20世纪90年代以后,非洲的人口动态由高出生高死亡模式向高出生中死亡模式转变．死亡率的持续下降在很大程度上是由于数种过去危害最严重的急性传染病基本上得到有效控制的结果。正是死亡率的下降和持续的高出生率导致非洲人口迅速增长。在非洲人口增长的过程中．人口分布是极不平衡的。非洲人口分布的变化与经济因素的人口定期迁移是密切相关的,大致可分为三种情况．这种独特的迁移模式均与经济活动和生产方式直接相关。     

苏联人口学的形成和发展

19世纪—20世纪初,人口统计学在俄罗斯常常称之为人口学,那时有了一定的发展。伟大的十月革命胜利以后,苏联人口科学开始建立。它的形成和发展大致经历了三个时期:20年代—30年代初为第一个时期;30年代—50年代末为第二个时期;60年代—80     

中国人口的死亡水平及预期寿命评估——基于第六次人口普查数据的分析

本文基于2010年人口普查数据,以1981年的中国人口生命表为模型生命表对2010年的人口按龄死亡模式进行修正,测算2010年的中国人口预期寿命,对20世纪80年代以来人口死亡率的变化趋势以及性别模式进行分析。研究结果发现,2010年中国人口的死亡率下降至5.58‰;人口预期寿命达到75岁,其中男性的预期寿命超过73岁,女性预期寿命为78岁;近10年间中国人口预期寿命的增幅超过4岁,高于20世纪80年代以来的任何时期。然而,2010年的人口普查数据中婴幼儿和老年人口存在严重的死亡漏报,现有的经济利益和社会制度因素的制约对人口普查数据质量的提高提出了巨大挑战。偏高的女婴死亡率虽然较2000年有所改善,但依旧存在,对女性的社会歧视仍在威胁中国的人口安全。     

世纪末的俄罗斯人口问题和发展展望

２０世纪９０年代以来,随着经济的巨变,俄罗斯产生了一系列的人口问题,如高离婚率、低生育率与高人流比,多种原因造成人口素质下降、人才大量外流等。俄罗斯未来１５年人口数量将继续减少,人口素质略有提高,人口老龄化进程加快,人才外流状况短期内将难有改观。     

中国各地区妇女生育水平差异的社会经济影响因素分析——兼对1990-2000年期间各地区生育水平下降因素考察

本研究构造了人口流动强度和城镇化指数分布法对全国漏报的538万多0岁人口进行地区(省、直辖市、自治区)分配,将漏报出生回填后,估计并以之得到各地区2000年妇女总和生育率.在此基础上对总和生育率与社会经济发展和生育政策的关系进行定量分析.结果发现,各地区妇女总和生育率的差异一方面来自政策水平的差异,另一方面社会经济发展水平对这一差异有着显著的影响.同时,20世纪90年代以来各地区妇女生育率下降的决定因素也是来自这两个方面,社会经济发展的作用略大于政策的外生作用.     

中国人口老龄化的人口学原因

对中国人口老龄化的原因,目前还缺乏专门的研究,只有一些没有经过实证研究的假说或者简单的推论。本文从中国人口实际出发,用模拟的方法研究了生育、死亡和初始年龄结构对中国人口老龄化的作用。结果表明,生育率下降是中国人口老龄化的根本原因;在本世纪内,死亡率下降没有使中国人口老龄化,而使其年轻化了;到21世纪20年代,死亡率下降     

第二次世界大战对苏联人口状况的影响

第二次世界大战期间为了赢得战争胜利,苏联付出了惨重的人口代价。战争对苏联人口状况产生了深刻的影响,不仅加重了战前已存在的人口危机程度,而且对居民的身体健康状况、结婚率和家庭规模造成了更深程度的破坏。战后流行病大规模爆发,出生率下降、死亡率上升,性别比例、年龄结构严重失衡,人口数量大幅减少,并持续数十年,为20世纪90年代初俄罗斯爆发的人口危机埋下了隐患。     

长春市人口迁移状况以及人口管理模式转变的思考

20世纪90年代以来,随着我国社会主义市场经济体制逐步建立和完善,市场机制在配置资源方面发挥的作用越来越大。长春市是东北老工业基地,尽管经济发展水平与东部地区有一定差距,但是作为特大城市的经济聚集能力和人口聚集能力仍然很强,人口迁移流动在市场机制的作用下呈加速增长趋势,经济因素是推动人口流动性增加的主要原因。     

求实与创新的结合——《当代西方人口学说》评介

由著名人口学家李竞能教授主编的《当代西方人口学说》,最近已由山西人民出版社公开出版发行。这是一部融学术性、资料性、知识性于一体,可读性较强的人口学专著,是了解当代西方人口学说概貌的一个窗口。当历史的车轮碾过19世纪最后一页把人们带进20世纪以来,世界人口发生越来越令人瞠目的一些重大变化:人口规模空前膨胀,80年代末超过53亿,比本世纪初增长2倍有余;不过增长速度形成巨大反差,欧美发达国家在本世纪初即发生了由高生育率向低生育率的转变,而绝大多数发     

Beyond infant mortality: gender and stillbirth in reproductive mortality before the twentieth century

Though it has been the largest component of reproductive mortality since its statutory registration in 1928, stillbirth has received little attention from historical demographers, who have relied on the more orthodox indicator of early human survival changes - "infant mortality". The exclusion of stillbirth hampers demographic analysis, underestimates progress in newborn vitality, and over-privileges post-natal causes in theoretical explanation. A case is made for estimating stillbirth before 1928 as a ratio of early neonatal death, and for employing perinatal mortality as an historical indicator of female health status. The long-run trend of reproductive mortality (encompassing mature foetal and live born infant death during the first eleven months) reveals a substantial decline in perinatal causes in the first industrial century (1750-1850), implying a major concurrent improvement in the nutritional status of child bearers. Reproductive mortality is a more complete indicator of death in infancy. It offers demographers a means of fracturing the fertility versus mortality dualism and a potential purchase on gender as a demographic variable, while re-opening the case on mortality in the demographic dynamic of the world we have lost.     

Estimation of a structural model of the determinants of neonatal mortality in Hungary, 1984-88 and 1994-98

We developed and evaluated a structural model of the determinants of neonatal mortality in Hungary that embodies the causal mechanisms by which its proximate and indirect determinants--socio-economic, behavioural, and biological--are related. The statistical model used distinguishes between endogenous and exogenous variables and allows the causal effect of each to be correctly estimated. Unobserved variables are integrated into the model, which was tested using Hungarian data for the periods 1984-88 and 1994-98. The principal findings are as follows: weight at birth and duration of gestation are the most important of the (direct) causal determinants of neonatal mortality. Mother's age has an indirect and detrimental effect: when mothers are older than 30 years of age, the risk of lower birth weight or multiple births and, in consequence, neonatal mortality is increased. Father's age has no direct or indirect causal effect on neonatal mortality.     

变迁中的俄罗斯城市化进程研究

自上个世纪90年代初,苏联发生解体,同时俄罗斯的城市化进程也受到严重干扰,很多地区出现大城市居民迁移到小城市和农村这些不正常的事件。与此同时,在西方发达国家,逆城市化正进行得如火如荼。因此,一些俄罗斯学者认为俄罗斯在城市化水平达到很高的程度后同样出现了逆城市化现象。笔者回顾了俄罗斯自19世纪中期以来城市化历程,并针对不同城市分组进行了一些计量分析。研究结果表明,俄罗斯在上个世纪90年代发生的事件并非逆城市化现象,而只是由于动乱而引起的暂时波动,在经济逐渐得到恢复之后,俄罗斯城市化进程再次步入动乱前的正轨。但由于俄罗斯目前经济发展的不稳定性,俄罗斯未来城市化的进程也相当不确定。     

Child Mortality and Environment in Developing Countries

This paper studies child mortality and fertility in 61 developing countries including the Central Asian Republics (CARs). To control for simultaneity, an estimated value of fertility was used in the mortality equation and a final specification included only exogenous socio-economic, health and environmental variables. We confirm the importance of female literacy in explaining both fertility and mortality, and also find a measure of consumption for the poorest share of the population to be significant, while controlling for nutrition, health expenditure, and income distribution. Incidence of tuberculosis and female agricultural population proxy for environmental impacts, but in spite of these controls, approximately 41% additional mortality was estimated due to living in the CARs. The results fill gaps in the literature: we use a wider range of socio-economic and environmental health variables than previously in an encompassing analysis of mortality and fertility, and find evidence of excessive mortality in the CARs most likely linked to environmental degradation in the region.

Russia Faces Depopulation? Dynamics of Population Decline

Between 1992 and 1993 Russia's population declined, as it has in every succeeding year. This has been viewed as a population disaster, related to high adult male mortality and deterioration of the health care system. Some see a substantially depopulated Russia in the future. However, the prospect of long-term population decline is completely due to recent declines in fertility. High adult male mortality, although a cause of great concern, does not contribute to the chance of long-term population decline. Projections of the future population of Russia depend upon the exact fertility assumptions used. Based on the example of fertility in the United States in the Great Depression and the Baby Boom following World War II, the future depopulation of Russia is far from certain.     

Health,wartime stress,and unit cohesion: Evidence from Union Army veterans

We find that Union Army veterans of the American Civil War who faced greater wartime stress (as measured by higher battlefield mortality rates) experienced higher mortality rates at older ages, but that men who were from more cohesive companies were statistically significantly less likely to be affected by wartime stress. Our results hold for overall mortality, mortality from ischemic heart disease and stroke, and new diagnoses of arteriosclerosis. Our findings represent one of the first long-run health follow-ups of the interaction between stress and social networks in a human population in which both stress and social networks are arguably exogenous.     

Child mortality, fertility, and human capital accumulation

This article analyzes the impact of decline in child mortality on fertility and economic growth. The study shows that the timing of mortality relative to education is crucial to implications of mortality decline. If child mortality is realized before education starts, an exogenous decline in child mortality leads to a decline in education—a finding that is opposite to those of studies that considered a decline in mortality after the cost of education has been incurred. The work also demonstrates the role of parental human capital in reducing child mortality and the causal link between rising education and declining child mortality.

Child mortality and fertility: public vs private education

How does the effect of child mortality reductions on fertility and education vary across educational systems? To answer this question, we develop an overlapping-generations model where altruistic parents care about both the number and human capital of their surviving children. We find that, under a private education system, if income is low initially, the economy converges to a Malthusian stagnation steady state. For a high level of initial income, the economy reaches a growth path in which children’s education rises and fertility decreases with income. In the growth regime under private education, exogenous shocks that lower child mortality are detrimental for growth: fertility increases and education declines. In contrast, under a public education system, the stagnation steady state does not exist, and health improvement shocks are no longer detrimental for growth. We therefore offer a new rationale for the introduction of public education.     

Infant mortality by Father’s occupation from the 1911 Census of England and Wales

Infant mortality in England and Wales only began its secular decline at the beginning of this century, although mortality among those aged 1-4 began to decline earlier. The 1911 Census of Fertility provides the basis for estimates of infant mortality among occupational groups. A diagrammatic model of decline is elaborated, using fertility decline, social class, income, and urban/rural distribution as explanatory variables. Results of the analysis suggest that infant mortality decline, whose average value was 35 percent from a peak of 132 per 1,000, was increased by improvements in the urban environment and advanced by high or regular income, whereas fertility decline had only a small effect.     

Economic structure and fertility: A comparative analysis

This study empirically investigates the relationship between the economic structure of populations and their level of fertility, using data from censuses recently conducted in some 50 nations. Findings show that high rates of female labor force participation outside the home and low rates of economic activity of children depress a society’s fertility level, as measured by the crude birth rate or the child-woman ratio. It is also hypothesized, but not confirmed, that the per cent of unpaid family workers in a society is positively related to its fertility level. A model is presented that treats these three components of economic structure as intervening variables through which the exogenous variables, urbanization, industrialization, and education, operate in influencing the fertility level of a society.