The variance constant for continuous-time level dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes

We derive the variance constant of continuous-time level dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes by investigating the expected integral functionals of the first return times. As an application, we consider the variance constant for the M/M/c retrial queue with non-persistent customers. For this model, analytical expressions and numerical results are obtained for the cases of single server and multiple servers, respectively. We also apply the obtained result to test the M/M/c vacation model for airport security pre-board screening checkpoint services by constructing a confidence interval for the mean queue length.     

Analysis of a two incongruent arrivals and services M/G/1 queue with random feedback

A queuing system with two incongruent arrivals and services is considered. Two kinds of customers enter the system by Poisson process and the service times are assumed to have general distribution. After first kind service completion, it may feedback to repeat the first service, leave the system or go to give second service. The same policy is applied for the other kind of customer. All stochastic processes involved in this system are independent. We derive the probability generating function for each kind and for the system that yield the performance measures. Some numerical approaches examined the validity of the results.     

A new look at Markov processes of G/M/1-type

We present a new method for deriving the stationary distribution of an ergodic Markov process of G/M/1-type in continuous-time, by deriving and making use of a new representation for each element of the rate matrices contained in these distributions. This method can also be modified to derive the Laplace transform of each transition function associated with Markov processes of G/M/1-type.     

Characterizing the BMAP/MAP/1 Departure Process via the ETAQA Truncation

Abstract

We propose a family of finite approximations for the departure process of a BMAP/MAP/1 queue. The departure process approximations are derived via an exact aggregate solution technique (called ETAQA) applied to M/G/1-type Markov processes. The proposed approximations are indexed by a parameter n(n > 1), which determines the size of the output model as n + 1 block levels of the M/G/1-type process. This output approximation preserves exactly the marginal distribution of the true departure process and the lag correlations of the interdeparture times up to lag n ? 2. Experimental results support the applicability of the proposed approximation in traffic-based decomposition of queueing networks.     

Extended Poisson INAR(1) processes with equidispersion,underdispersion and overdispersion

Real count data time series often show the phenomenon of the underdispersion and overdispersion. In this paper, we develop two extensions of the first-order integer-valued autoregressive process with Poisson innovations, based on binomial thinning, for modeling integer-valued time series with equidispersion, underdispersion, and overdispersion. The main properties of the models are derived. The methods of conditional maximum likelihood, Yule–Walker, and conditional least squares are used for estimating the parameters, and their asymptotic properties are established. We also use a test based on our processes for checking if the count time series considered is overdispersed or underdispersed. The proposed models are fitted to time series of the weekly number of syphilis cases and monthly counts of family violence illustrating its capabilities in challenging the overdispersed and underdispersed count data.     

Parameter inference for time series with regular and seasonal unit roots

It is common to have both regular and seasonal roots present in many time series data. It may occur that one or both of the roots are just close but not equal to unity. Parameter inference for this situation is considered both when the time series has a finite or an infinite variance. Asymptotic char-acterizations of the test statistics were obtained via functionals of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and Lévy processes. Tabulations for the large sample distributions are obtained. The results will be useful in applications deciding whether both regular and seasonal differencing are needed in fitting a time series model.     

The rate of convergence to stationarity for M/G/1 models with admission controls via coupling

We study the workload processes of two M/G/1 queueing systems with restricted capacity: in Model 1 any service requirement that would exceed a certain capacity threshold is truncated; in Model 2 new arrivals do not enter the system if they have to wait more than a fixed threshold time in line. For Model 1 we obtain several results concerning the rate of convergence to equilibrium. In particular, we derive uniform bounds for geometric ergodicity with respect to certain subclasses. For Model 2 geometric ergodicity follows from the finiteness of the moment-generating function of the service time distribution. We derive bounds for the convergence rates in special cases. The proofs use the coupling method.     

The covariance of the number of renewals in a fixed time and the ensuing excess life

The covariance of the number of renewals in a fixed time N ^t and the ensuing excess life time Y ^t is derived using matrix-analytic methods for the stationary PH-renewal process. Specific results for the Erlang and hyperexponential processes are provided to illustrate the ease of computation. Properties concerning the sign and the behavior of the covariance as t→∞ are provided throughout. Parameter estimation for renewal processes which cannot be fully observed serves as the motivation for our derivations. These statistical applications as well as links to estimation for service time distributions in queues shed light on the type of problems for which the covariance is useful.     

Marginal Means/Rates Models for Multiple Type Recurrent Event Data

Recurrent events are frequently observed in biomedical studies, and often more than one type of event is of interest. Follow-up time may be censored due to loss to follow-up or administrative censoring. We propose a class of semi-parametric marginal means/rates models, with a general relative risk form, for assessing the effect of covariates on the censored event processes of interest. We formulate estimating equations for the model parameters, and examine asymptotic properties of the parameter estimators. Finite sample properties of the regression coefficients are examined through simulations. The proposed methods are applied to a retrospective cohort study of risk factors for preschool asthma.     

Estimation of cyclic long-memory parameters

This paper studies cyclic long-memory processes with Gegenbauer-type spectral densities. For a semiparametric statistical model, new simultaneous estimates for singularity location and long-memory parameters are proposed. This generalized filtered method-of-moments approach is based on general filter transforms that include wavelet transformations as a particular case. It is proved that the estimates are almost surely convergent to the true values of parameters. Solutions of the estimation equations are studied, and adjusted statistics are proposed. Monte-Carlo study results are presented to confirm the theoretical findings.     

On the rate of convergence of recursive kernel estimates of probability densities

Recursive estimates f_n^r(x)of the rth derivative f^r(x)(r=0,1)of the univariate probability density f(x) for strictly stationary processes {X_j,} are considered. The asymptotic variance-covariance of f_n^r(x)is established for stationary triangular arrays of random variables satisfying various asymptotic independence-uncorrelatedness conditions.     

Commuting Matrices in the Queue Length and Sojourn Time Analysis of MAP/MAP/1 Queues

Queues with Markovian arrival and service processes, i.e., MAP/MAP/1 queues, have been useful in the analysis of computer and communication systems and different representations for their stationary sojourn time and queue length distribution have been derived. More specifically, the class of MAP/MAP/1 queues lies at the intersection of the class of QBD queues and the class of semi-Markovian queues. While QBD queues have a matrix exponential representation for their queue length and sojourn time distribution of order N and N², respectively, where N is the size of the background continuous time Markov chain, the reverse is true for a semi-Markovian queue. As the class of MAP/MAP/1 queues lies at the intersection, both the queue length and sojourn time distribution of a MAP/MAP/1 queue has an order N matrix exponential representation. The aim of this article is to understand why the order N² distributions of the sojourn time of a QBD queue and the queue length of a semi-Markovian queue can be reduced to an order N distribution in the specific case of a MAP/MAP/1 queue. We show that the key observation exists in establishing the commutativity of some fundamental matrices involved in the analysis of the MAP/MAP/1 queue.     

Optimal Strategies for a Long-Term Static Investor

The optimal strategies for a long-term static investor are studied. Given a portfolio of a stock and a bond, we derive the optimal allocation of the capitals to maximize the expected long-term growth rate of a utility function of the wealth. When the bond has a constant interest rate, three models for the underlying stock price processes are studied: Heston model, 3/2 model, and jump diffusion model. We also study the optimal strategies for a portfolio in which the stock price process follows a Black-Scholes model and the bond process has a Vasicek interest rate that is correlated to the stock price.     

Lévy Processes,Phase-Type Distributions,and Martingales

Lévy processes are defined as processes with stationary independent increments and have become increasingly popular as models in queueing, finance, etc.; apart from Brownian motion and compound Poisson processes, some popular examples are stable processes, variance gamma processes, CGMY Lévy processes (tempered stable processes), NIG (normal inverse Gaussian) Lévy processes, and hyperbolic Lévy processes. We consider here a dense class of Lévy processes, compound Poisson processes with phase-type jumps in both directions and an added Brownian component. Within this class, we survey how to explicitly compute a number of quantities that are traditionally studied in the area of Lévy processes, in particular two-sided exit probabilities and associated Laplace transforms, the closely related scale function, one-sided exit probabilities and associated Laplace transforms coming up in queueing problems, and similar quantities for a Lévy process with reflection in 0. The solutions are in terms of roots to polynomials, and the basic equations are derived by purely probabilistic arguments using martingale optional stopping; a particularly useful martingale is the so-called Kella-Whitt martingale. Also, the relation to fluid models with a Brownian component is discussed.     

Efficient sequential estimation in multiplicative counting processes

The problem of efficient sequential estimation is counting processes with multiplicative intensity processes is considered. A sequential version of Cramér-Rao type information inequality is obtained and all the 'efficient' triples (S, f, g) are characterized: the variance of an unbiased estimator f for g attains the lower bound under a sampling plan S. Applications to Poisson processes, Markov processes, birth and death processes and Markov branching processes with immigration are also considered.     

Stereological formulas for stationary surface processes

In the paper surface processes are considered, i.e. sets of surfaces distributed at random in the space. For translation invariant surface processes the PALM distribution of the direction of the normal in a typical surface point is defined and related to two roses of intersection. Fibre and point processes are studied which result by intersections with planes and lines respectively. For these processes stereological formulas are proved which connect some quantities with such of the surface process. As a special ease motion invariant, i.e. translation invariant and isotropic, surface processes are treated, Furthermore, weighted surface processes are considered.     

On Some Applications of a Symbolic Representation of Non Centered Lévy Processes

By using a symbolic technique known in the literature as the classical umbral calculus, we characterize two classes of polynomials related to Lévy processes: the Kailath-Segall and the time-space harmonic polynomials. We provide the Kailath-Segall formula in terms of cumulants and we recover simple closed-forms for several families of polynomials with respect to not centered Lévy processes, such as the Hermite polynomials with Brownian motion, Poisson-Charlier polynomials with Poisson processes, actuarial polynomials with Gamma processes, first kind Meixner polynomials with Pascal processes, and Bernoulli, Euler, and Krawtchuk polynomials with suitable random walks.     

Asymptotic results for hybrids of empirical and partial sums processes

The present paper is devoted to the study of the hybrids of empirical and partial sums processes. In the first part, we present a synthesis of results related to these processes and their connection with the empirical and compound process. We obtain new results on the precise asymptotics in the law of the logarithm related to complete convergence and a.s. convergence, under some mild conditions, for the hybrids of empirical and partial sums processes. Finally, the weighted bootstrap processes and general hybrid processes are also discussed.     

Interacting neighbour point processes: Some models for clustering

We introduce a class of spatial point processesinteracting neighbour point (INP) processes, where the density of the process can be written by means of local interactions between a point and subsets of its neighbourhood but where the processes may not be Ripley-Kelly Markov processes with respect to this neighbourhood. We show that the processes are iterated Markov processes defined by Hayat and Gubner (1996). Furthermore, we pay special attention to a subclass of interacting neighbour processes, where the density belongs to the exponential family and all neighbours of a point affect it simultaneously. A simulation study is presented to show that some simple processes of this subclass can produce clustered patterns of great variety. Finally, an empirical example is given.