Volatility forecasting of financial time series using wavelet based exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model

Abstract

An improved forecasting model by merging two different computational models in predicting future volatility was proposed. The model integrates wavelet and EGARCH model where the pre-processing activity based on wavelet transform is performed with de-noising technique to eliminate noise in observed signal. The denoised signal is then feed into EGARCH model to forecast the volatility. The predictive capability of the proposed model is compared with the existing EGARCH model. The results show that the hybrid model has increased the accuracy of forecasting future volatility.     

Smoothed detrended fluctuation analysis

ABSTRACT

The method of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is useful in revealing the extent of long-range dependence, it has successfully been applied to different fields of interest. In this paper we proposed a smoothed detrended fluctuation analysis method based on the principle of wavelet shrinkage. The procedure is illustrated and compared with the DFA method by Monte Carlo simulations on fractional Gaussian noise models.     

Wavelet density estimation for negatively associated stratified size-biased sample

This paper provides upper bounds of wavelet estimations on L^p (1≤p<∞) risk for a density function in Besov spaces based on negatively associated stratified size-biased random samples. It turns out that the classical theorem of Donoho, Johnstone, Kerkyacharian and Picard is completely extended to more general cases. More precisely, we consider the model with multiplication noise and allow the sample negatively associated. Our theory is illustrated with a simulation study.     

Nonparametric estimation of the derivatives of a density by the method of wavelet for mixing sequences

The problem of estimation of the derivative of a probability density f is considered, using wavelet orthogonal bases. We consider an important kind of dependent random variables, the so-called mixing random variables and investigate the precise asymptotic expression for the mean integrated error of the wavelet estimators. We show that the mean integrated error of the proposed estimator attains the same rate as when the observations are independent, under certain week dependence conditions imposed to the {X _i }, defined in {Ω, N, P}.     

The first-order random coefficient integer valued autoregressive process with the occasional level shift random noise based on dual empirical likelihood

Abstract

This paper investigates the first-order random coefficient integer valued autoregressive process with the occasional level shift random noise based on dual empirical likelihood. The limiting distribution of log empirical likelihood ratio statistic is constructed. Asymptotic convergence and confidence region results of empirical likelihood ratio are given. Hypothesis testing is considering, and maximum empirical likelihood estimation for parameter is acquired. Simulations are given to show that the maximum empirical likelihood estimation is more efficient than the conditional least squares estimation.     

Detection and Estimation of Jump Points in Non parametric Regression Function with AR(1) Noise

In this paper, we propose a method based on wavelet analysis to detect and estimate jump points in non parametric regression function. This method is applied to AR(1) noise process under random design. First, the test statistics are constructed on the empirical wavelet coefficients. Then, under the null hypothesis, the critical values of test statistics are obtained. Under the alternative, the consistency of the test is proved. Afterward, the rate of convergence, the estimators of the number, and locations of change points are given theoretically. Finally, the excellent performance of our method is demonstrated through simulations using artificial and real datasets.     

Estimation of exponential-polynomial distribution by holonomic gradient descent

ABSTRACT

We study the holonomic gradient decent for maximum likelihood estimation of exponential-polynomial distribution, whose density is the exponential function of a polynomial in the random variable. We first consider the case that the support of the distribution is the set of positive reals. We show that the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) can be easily computed by the holonomic gradient descent, even though the normalizing constant of this family does not have a closed-form expression, and discuss the determination of the degree of the polynomial based on the score test statistic. Then, we present extensions to the whole real line and to the bivariate distribution on the positive orthant.     

HAZARD RATE ESTIMATION FOR CENSORED DATA BY WAVELET METHODS

ABSTRACT

We study the estimation of a hazard rate function based on censored data by non-linear wavelet method. We provide an asymptotic formula for the mean integrated squared error (MISE) of nonlinear wavelet-based hazard rate estimators under randomly censored data. We show this MISE formula, when the underlying hazard rate function and censoring distribution function are only piecewise smooth, has the same expansion as analogous kernel estimators, a feature not available for the kernel estimators. In addition, we establish an asymptotic normality of the nonlinear wavelet estimator.     

A Bayesian wavelet approach to estimation of a change-point in a nonlinear multivariate time series

ABSTRACT

We propose a semiparametric approach to estimate the existence and location of a statistical change-point to a nonlinear multivariate time series contaminated with an additive noise component. In particular, we consider a p-dimensional stochastic process of independent multivariate normal observations where the mean function varies smoothly except at a single change-point. Our approach involves conducting a Bayesian analysis on the empirical detail coefficients of the original time series after a wavelet transform. If the mean function of our time series can be expressed as a multivariate step function, we find our Bayesian-wavelet method performs comparably with classical parametric methods such as maximum likelihood estimation. The advantage of our multivariate change-point method is seen in how it applies to a much larger class of mean functions that require only general smoothness conditions.     

Orthogonal polynomials generated by random vectors

Every random q-vector with finite moments generates a set of orthonormal polynomials. These are generated from the basis functions xn = xn11…xnqq using Gram–Schmidt orthogonalization. One can cycle through these basis functions using any number of ways. Here, we give results using minimum cycling. The polynomials look simpler when centered about the mean of X, and still simpler form when X is symmetric about zero. This leads to an extension of the multivariate Hermite polynomial for a general random vector symmetric about zero. As an example, the results are applied to the multivariate normal distribution.     

On simple wavelet estimators of random signals and their small-sample properties

In the paper we suggest certain nonparametric estimators of random signals based on the wavelet transform. We consider stochastic signals embedded in white noise and extractions with wavelet denoizing algorithms utilizing the non-decimated discrete wavelet transform and the idea of wavelet scaling. We evaluate properties of these estimators via extensive computer simulations and partially also analytically. Our wavelet estimators of random signals have clear advantages over parametric maximum likelihood methods as far as computational issues are concerned, while at the same time they can compete with these methods in terms of precision of estimation in small samples. An illustrative example concerning smoothing of survey data is also provided.     

Bounds for L-Statistics from Weakly Dependent Samples of Random Length

ABSTRACT

Sharp bounds on expected values of L-statistics based on a sample of possibly dependent, identically distributed random variables are given in the case when the sample size is a random variable with values in the set {0, 1, 2,…}. The dependence among observations is modeled by copulas and mixing. The bounds are attainable and provide characterizations of some non trivial distributions.     

Approximation rates of the error distribution of wavelet estimators of a density function under censorship

In this paper, a wavelet estimator and a random weighted estimator of a probability density function are constructed under right censored data. The normal approximation rates and random weighting approximation rates of the error distribution of wavelet estimators are obtained under suitable conditions. To illustrate the application of the technique, the confidence interval of f(x) is constructed by the results in this paper, and the simulation calculation is studied by the artificially generated data and “real world” data set.     

A central limit theorem for correlated variables with limited normal or gamma distributions

Abstract

Non-negative limited normal or gamma distributed random variables are commonly used to model physical phenomenon such as the concentration of compounds within gaseous clouds. This paper demonstrates that when a collection of random variables with limited normal or gamma distributions represents a stationary process for which the underlying variables have exponentially decreasing correlations, then a central limit theorem applies to the correlated random variables.     

Optimization problems for consecutive-2-out-of-n:G system

Abstract

This paper considers the optimization problems for a consecutive-2-out-of-n:G system where n is considered to be fixed or random. When the number of components is constant, the optimal number of components and the optimal replacement time are discussed by minimizing the expected cost rates. Furthermore, we focus on the above discussions again when n is a random variable. We give an approximate value of MTTF and propose the preventive replacement policy, respectively.     

Application domains for the Delta method

The Delta method uses truncated Lagrange expansions of statistics to obtain approximations to their distributions. In this paper, we consider statistics Y=g(μ+X), where X is any random vector. We obtain domains 𝒟 such that, when μ∈𝒟, we may apply the distribution derived from the Delta method. Namely, we will consider an application on the normal case to illustrate our approach.     

KERNEL ESTIMATORS OF PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS BY RANKED-SET SAMPLING

ABSTRACT

Kernel estimation of probability density functions is considered when ranked-set samples are available. The properties of the resulting estimators are derived for small and large samples, while performance with respect to the usual simple random sample estimators is investigated for a range of probability density models.     

Three-term asymptotic expansion: A semi-Markovian random walk with a generalized beta distributed interference of chance

A semi-Markovian random walk process (X(t)) with a generalized beta distribution of chance is considered. The asymptotic expansions for the first four moments of the ergodic distribution of the process are obtained as E(ζ_n) → ∞ when the random variable ζ_n has a generalized beta distribution with parameters (s, S, α, β); ?α, β > 1,?0? ? s < S < ∞. Finally, the accuracy of the asymptotic expansions is examined by using the Monte Carlo simulation method.     

A coordinate majorization descent algorithm for ℓ1 penalized learning

The glmnet package by Friedman et al. [Regularization paths for generalized linear models via coordinate descent, J. Statist. Softw. 33 (2010), pp. 1–22] is an extremely fast implementation of the standard coordinate descent algorithm for solving ?₁ penalized learning problems. In this paper, we consider a family of coordinate majorization descent algorithms for solving the ?₁ penalized learning problems by replacing each coordinate descent step with a coordinate-wise majorization descent operation. Numerical experiments show that this simple modification can lead to substantial improvement in speed when the predictors have moderate or high correlations.     

The echelon Markov and Chebyshev inequalities

Abstract

A multivariate version of the sharp Markov inequality is derived, when associated probabilities are extended to segments of the supports of non-negative random variables, where the probabilities take echelon forms. It is shown that when some positive lower bounds of these probabilities are available, the multivariate Markov inequality without the echelon forms is improved. The corresponding results for Chebyshev’s inequality are also obtained.