Bayesian estimation for first-order autoregressive model with explanatory variables

In this article, we develop a Bayesian analysis in autoregressive model with explanatory variables. When σ² is known, we consider a normal prior and give the Bayesian estimator for the regression coefficients of the model. For the case σ² is unknown, another Bayesian estimator is given for all unknown parameters under a conjugate prior. Bayesian model selection problem is also being considered under the double-exponential priors. By the convergence of ρ-mixing sequence, the consistency and asymptotic normality of the Bayesian estimators of the regression coefficients are proved. Simulation results indicate that our Bayesian estimators are not strongly dependent on the priors, and are robust.     

Estimating the common hazard rate of several exponential distributions

Abstract

In the present communication, we consider the estimation of the common hazard rate of several exponential distributions with unknown and unequal location parameters with a common scale parameter under a general class of bowl-shaped scale invariant loss functions. We have shown that the best affine equivariant estimator (BAEE) is inadmissible by deriving a non smooth improved estimator. Further, we have obtained a smooth estimator which improves upon the BAEE. As an application, we have obtained explicit expressions of improved estimators for special loss functions. Finally, a simulation study is carried out for numerically comparing the risk performance of various estimators.     

Finite sample properties of an HPT estimator when each individual regression coefficient is estimated in a misspecified linear regression model

ABSTRACT

In this paper, assuming that there exist omitted variables in the specified model, we analytically derive the exact formula for the mean squared error (MSE) of a heterogeneous pre-test (HPT) estimator whose components are the ordinary least squares (OLS) and feasible ridge regression (FRR) estimators. Since we cannot examine the MSE performance analytically, we execute numerical evaluations to investigate small sample properties of the HPT estimator, and compare the MSE performance of the HPT estimator with those of the FRR estimator and the usual OLS estimator. Our numerical results show that (1) the HPT estimator is more efficient when the model misspecification is severe; (2) the HPT estimator with the optimal critical value obtained under the correctly specified model can be safely used even when there exist omitted variables in the specified model.     

MSE performance of the weighted average estimators consisting of shrinkage estimators when each individual regression coefficient is estimated

In this paper, we analytically derive the exact formula for the mean squared error (MSE) of two weighted average (WA) estimators for each individual regression coefficient. Further, we execute numerical evaluations to investigate small sample properties of the WA estimators, and compare the MSE performance of the WA estimators with the other shrinkage estimators and the usual OLS estimator. Our numerical results show that (1) the WA estimators have smaller MSE than the other shrinkage estimators and the OLS estimator over a wide region of parameter space; (2) the range where the relative MSE of the WA estimator is smaller than that of the OLS estimator gets narrower as the number of explanatory variables k increases.     

Estimating the variance of a normal population by utilizing the information in a sample from a second related normal population

A class of estimators of the variance σ₁ ² of a normal population is introduced, by utilization the information in a sample from a second normal population with different mean and variance σ₂ ², under the restriction that σ₁ ²?≤?σ₂ ². Simulation results indicate that some members of this class are more efficient than the usual minimum variance unbiased estimator (MVUE) of σ₁ ², Stein estimator and Mehta and Gurland estimator. The case of known and unknown means are considered.     

Shrinkage estimation of location parameters in a multivariate skew-normal distribution

Abstract

This paper studies decision theoretic properties of Stein type shrinkage estimators in simultaneous estimation of location parameters in a multivariate skew-normal distribution with known skewness parameters under a quadratic loss. The benchmark estimator is the best location equivariant estimator which is minimax. A class of shrinkage estimators improving on the best location equivariant estimator is constructed when the dimension of the location parameters is larger than or equal to four. An empirical Bayes estimator is also derived, and motivated from the Bayesian procedure, we suggest a simple skew-adjusted shrinkage estimator and show its dominance property. The performances of these estimators are investigated by simulation.     

A comparison of estimators for the proportion in the tail of a normal distribution

Three estimators of the proportion in a tail of the normal distribution are compared using the criteria of mean squared error and mean absolute error. The estimators that we compare are the maximum likelihood estimator, the minimum variance unbiased estimator, and an intuitive estimator that is frequently used in practice. The intuitive estimator is similar to the MLE but uses the usual unbiased estimator of σ² rather than the MLE of σ². We show that the intuitive estimator has low efficiency, and for this reason it is not recommended. For very smallp and for largep the MVUE has the highest efficiency. The MLE is best for moderate values ofp.     

Asymptotic mean squared error of constrained James–Stein estimators

In this paper, we consider the asymptotic expansion of the MSE of constrained James–Stein estimators. We provide an estimator of the MSE which is asymptotically valid upto O(m⁻¹). A simulation study is undertaken to evaluate the performance of these estimators.     

Exact two-sided Lieberman-Resnikoff sampling plans

We deal sith sampling by variables with two-way-protection in the case of aN(μσ²) distributed characteristic with unknown σ². For the sampling plan by Lieberman and Resnikoff (1955), which is based on the MVU estimator of the percent defective, we prove a formula for the OC. If the sampling parametersp ₁ (AQL),p ₂ (LQ) and α, β (type I, II errors) are given, we are able to compute the true type I and II errors of the usual (one-sided) approximation plans. Furthermore it is possible to compute exact two-sided Lieberman-Resnikoff sampling plans.     

Comparison of normal variance estimators under multiple criteria and towards a compromise estimator

For estimating a normal variance under the squared error loss function it is well known that the best affine (location and scale) equivariant estimator, which is better than the maximum likelihood estimator as well as the unbiased estimator, is also inadmissible. The improved estimators, e.g., stein type, brown type and Brewster–Zidek type, are all scale equivariant but not location invariant. Lately, a good amount of research has been done to compare the improved estimators in terms of risk, but comparatively less attention had been paid to compare these estimators in terms of the Pitman nearness criterion (PNC) as well as the stochastic domination criterion (SDC). In this paper, we have undertaken a comprehensive study to compare various variance estimators in terms of the PNC and the SDC, which has been long overdue. Finally, using the results for risk, the PNC and the SDC, we propose a compromise estimator (sort of a robust estimator) which appears to work ‘well’ under all the criteria discussed above.     

Estimating population size with truncated sampling

Let X₁, X₂,…,X_n be independent, indentically distributed random variables with density f(x,θ) with respect to a σ-finite measure μ. Let R be a measurable set in the sample space X. The value of X is observable if X ? (X?R) and not otherwise. The number J of observable X’s is binomial, N, Q, Q = 1?P(X ? R). On the basis of J observations, it is desired to estimate N and θ. Estimators considered are conditional and unconditional maximum likelihood and modified maximum likelihood using a prior weight function to modify the likelihood before maximizing. Asymptotic expansions are developed for the [Ncirc]’s of the form [Ncirc] = N + α√N + β + o_p(1), where α and β are random variables. All estimators have the same α, which has mean 0, variance σ² (a function of θ) and is asymptotically normal. Hence all are asymptotically equivalent by the usual limit distributional theory. The β’s differ and Eβ can be considered an “asymptotic bias”. Formulas are developed to compare the asymptotic biases of the various estimators. For a scale parameter family of absolutely continuous distributions with X = (0,∞) and R = (T,∞), special formuli are developed and a best estimator is found.     

Admissible linear estimators of the multivariate normal mean without extra information

Suppose y is normally distributed with mean IRⁿ and covariance σ²V, where σ²>0 and V>0 is known. The n. s. conditions that a linear estimator Ay+a of μ be admissible in the class of all estimators of μ which depend only on y are derived. In particular, the usual estimator δ₀(y)=y is admissible in this class. The results are applied to the normal linear model and the admissibilities of many well-known linear estimators are demonstrated.     

Wavelet Estimation of a Density in a GARCH-type Model

We consider the GARCH-type model: S = σ² Z, where σ² and Z are independent random variables. The density of σ² is unknown whereas the one of Z is known. We want to estimate the density of σ² from n observations of S under some dependence assumption (the exponentially strongly mixing dependence). Adopting the wavelet methodology, we construct a nonadaptive estimator based on projections and an adaptive estimator based on the hard thresholding rule. Taking the mean integrated squared error over Besov balls, we prove that the adaptive one attains a sharp rate of convergence.     

On MSE of EBLUP

We consider Best Linear Unbiased Predictors (BLUPs) and Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictors (EBLUPs) under the general mixed linear model. The BLUP was proposed by Henderson (Ann Math Stat 21:309–310, 1950). The formula of this BLUP includes unknown elements of the variance-covariance matrix of random variables. If the elements in the formula of the BLUP proposed by Henderson (Ann Math Stat 21:309–310, 1950) are replaced by some type of estimators, we obtain the two-stage predictor called the EBLUP which is model-unbiased (Kackar and Harville in Commun Stat A 10:1249–1261, 1981). Kackar and Harville (J Am Stat Assoc 79:853–862, 1984) show an approximation of the mean square error (the MSE) of the predictor and propose an estimator of the MSE. The MSE and estimators of the MSE are also studied by Prasad and Rao (J Am Stat Assoc 85:163–171, 1990), Datta and Lahiri (Stat Sin 10:613–627, 2000) and Das et al. (Ann Stat 32(2):818–840, 2004). In the paper we consider the BLUP proposed by Royall (J Am Stat Assoc 71:657–473, 1976. Ża̧dło (On unbiasedness of some EBLU predictor. Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg, pp 2019–2026, 2004) shows that the BLUP proposed by Royall (J Am Stat Assoc 71:657–473, 1976) may be treated as a generalisation of the BLUP proposed by Henderson (Ann Math Stat 21:309–310, 1950) and proves model unbiasedness of the EBLUP based on the formula of the BLUP proposed by Royall (J Am Stat Assoc 71:657–473, 1976) under some assumptions. In this paper we derive the formula of the approximate MSE of the EBLUP and its estimators. We prove that the approximation of the MSE is accurate to terms o(D ⁻¹) and that the estimator of the MSE is approximately unbiased in the sense that its bias is o(D ⁻¹) under some assumptions, where D is the number of domains. The proof is based on the results obtained by Datta and Lahiri (Stat Sin 10:613–627, 2000). Using our results we show some EBLUP based on the special case of the general linear model. We also present the formula of its MSE and estimators of its MSE and their performance in Monte Carlo simulation study.      

Shrunken estimators via a pitman nearness criterion

Shrunken estimators have traditionally been developed and studied using mean square error (MSE). Recent research on Pitman nearness (PN), however, indicates that it is an interesting, “intrinsic”, alternative to the mean square error (MSE) criterion for investigating estimators. Thus, we develop a shrunken estimator for the mean of a multivariate normal distribution based on minimizing PN, instead of MSE, Further, since the shrinkage factor of this estimator depends on unknown parameters, we examine two approaches for determining this factor: (1) “plug-in” estimates, (2) a range of values for the factor based on an approximate cońfidence interval for the Pitman Nearness probability. A numerical example is given.     

On the use of the Stein variance estimator in the double <Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis>-class estimator when each individual regression coefficient is estimated

In this paper we consider the double k-class estimator which incorporates the Stein variance estimator. This estimator is called the SVKK estimator. We derive the explicit formula for the mean squared error (MSE) of the SVKK estimator for each individual regression coefficient. It is shown analytically that the MSE performance of the Stein-rule estimator for each individual regression coefficient can be improved by utilizing the Stein variance estimator. Also, MSE’s of several estimators included in a family of the SVKK estimators are compared by numerical evaluations.     

Estimation of the location parameter and the average worth of the selected subset of two parameter exponential populations under LINEX loss function

Suppose a subset of populations is selected from k exponential populations with unknown location parameters θ₁, θ₂, …, θ_k and common known scale parameter σ. We consider the estimation of the location parameter of the selected population and the average worth of the selected subset under an asymmetric LINEX loss function. We show that the natural estimator of these parameters is biased and find the uniformly minimum risk-unbiased (UMRU) estimator of these parameters. In the case of k = 2, we find the minimax estimator of the location parameter of the smallest selected population. Furthermore, we compare numerically the risk of UMRU, minimax, and the natural estimators.     

Estimation of a Gamma Scale Parameter Under Asymmetric Squared Log Error Loss

Abstract

Estimation of scale parameter under the squared log error loss function is considered with restriction to the principle of invariance and risk unbiasedness. An explicit form of minimum risk scale-equivariant estimator under this loss is obtained. The admissibility and inadmissibility of a class of linear estimators of the form (cT + d) are considered, where T follows a gamma distribution with an unknown scale parameter η and a known shape parameter ν. This includes the admissibility of the minimum risk equivariant estimator on η (MRE).     

Small-area estimation by combining time-series and cross-sectional data

A model involving autocorrelated random effects and sampling errors is proposed for small-area estimation, using both time-series and cross-sectional data. The sampling errors are assumed to have a known block-diagonal covariance matrix. This model is an extension of a well-known model, due to Fay and Herriot (1979), for cross-sectional data. A two-stage estimator of a small-area mean for the current period is obtained under the proposed model with known autocorrelation, by first deriving the best linear unbiased prediction estimator assuming known variance components, and then replacing them with their consistent estimators. Extending the approach of Prasad and Rao (1986, 1990) for the Fay-Herriot model, an estimator of mean squared error (MSE) of the two-stage estimator, correct to a second-order approximation for a small or moderate number of time points, T, and a large number of small areas, m, is obtained. The case of unknown autocorrelation is also considered. Limited simulation results on the efficiency of two-stage estimators and the accuracy of the proposed estimator of MSE are présentés.     

Generalized james-stein estimatoes

Let the p-component vector X be normally distributed with mean θ and covariance σ²I where I denotes the identity matrix. Stein's estimator of θ is kown to dominate the usual estimator X for p ≥ 3, We obtain a family of estimators which dominate Stein's estimator for p≥ 3