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基于PSO-PLS的组合预测方法在GDP预测中的应用 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
GDP预测是经济预测中一个非常重要的问题,随着经济的发展,对其预测精度的要求也越来越高.在考虑样本权重的基础上,提出一种微粒群算法与部分最小二乘回归方法相结合的组合预测方法,即采用微粒群方法对样本最优权重进行求解,在所得样本权重系数的基础上,用部分最小二乘回归方法确定组合预测的权重系数.将该方法用于中国GDP预测取得了较好的结果,与其他几种传统方法相比,预测精度有一定程度的提高,说明算法的有效性和可行性. 相似文献
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本文主要从3个方面分析了我国目前上市房地产企业的税负状况.首先,在采用实际税率法的基础上,分别衡量了我国房地产企业的实际所得税税率和实际营业税税率;并着重建立一个总税负变量,从整体上衡量房地产企业的总税负水平.然后,将房地产行业的税负水平与钢铁、汽车等行业进行比较,并检验行业因素是否显著.最后,分析了房地产价格构成中税负、费用和成本的占有比例,从利益分割的角度分析到底是哪部分构成直接导致了房地产的高价格.本文最后得出的结论是:不管是从本行业的实际情况来看,还是与其他行业对比,房地产行业的税负水平其实并不高:税费关系不清和费用的繁杂是造成"高税负"的主要原因. 相似文献
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基于全最小二乘拟蒙特卡罗方法的可转债定价研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
基于传统的可转债最小二乘蒙特卡罗模拟定价方法,通过使用随机Faure序列和方差减小技术,有效地降低模型估计结果的误差,使用考虑解释变量和被解释变量误差的全最小二乘回归方法代替普通的最小二乘回归方法,提出可转债的全最小二乘拟蒙特卡罗定价方法,并给出该定价方法的具体算法步骤.以2002年10月16日发行的燕京可转换债券为例进行实证分析,从可转债的理论价值、计算标准差以及模型的运行时间等几个方面与传统的蒙特卡罗方法进行比较.研究结果表明,使用全最小二乘拟蒙特卡罗方法进行计算得到的结果更为合理,且估计误差和计算时间都更少,从而验证了该方法在可转债定价应用上的有效性. 相似文献
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为了进一步完善我国税制改革,在“营改增”的大背景下,我国住建部于2011年分别以66家建筑施工企业为有效样本进行了统计测算、调研,调查结果显示,其中88%的建筑施工企业出现了不同程度的税收增加。本文将就我国建筑施工企业“营改增”后税负增加的主要原因进行分析,并找出具体的对策。 相似文献
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本文首先阐述营改增政策;然后与旧政策进行对比分析,结合商贸物流行业得出对该行业业务税负及利润影响;最后提出该行业改善经营管理和主管税务机关政策调整的建议,促进商贸物流行业健康发展。 相似文献
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基于收益管理的思想对邮轮客舱分配与定价问题进行了研究。结合邮轮运营中的个性化特点,例如消费者团体人员构成多样、较长的预售周期以及救生位和儿童看护人员的数量限制等。在不失一般性的前提下,建立了整数规划模型用以确定在预售周期内的不同预售阶段中各种客舱类型的待售数量及其价格,以达到使邮轮公司收益最大化的目的。实验分析表明,该模型在实际应用中是有效的且呈现出显著的年增长趋势,可明显提高邮轮公司的收益。此外,设计了一种基于韦伯分布的EM算法用以解决模型中涉及到的需求量的无约束估计问题。数值算例研究表明,该算法收敛速度快且无约束估计过程可靠有效。 相似文献
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首先,从一般需求函数出发,得出两部技术转移定价法的一般解析表达式。然后,以线性需求函数为例,通过数值计算,对比分析了收益分成比例、最终产品价格、研发企业利润和受让方企业利润随着转让方和受让方股权比例的不同而变化的趋势。最后,分析得出,通过采用前期固定费用加后期收益分成的两部转移定价方法,不仅可以使研发企业的利润最优,同时还可以缓解技术受让方在单一定价方法下的一次性支出所带来的巨大资金压力和较高风险水平,并且将研发企业的利润与受让方的未来收益紧密联系,实现了双方的收益共享和风险共担。 相似文献
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While digital goods industries such as entertainment, software, and publishing are growing at a rapid pace, traditional supply chain contract models have failed to evolve with the new digital economy. To illustrate, the agency model utilized by the e‐book publishing industry has recently received much negative attention brought by the U.S. Department of Justice's lawsuit against Apple, Inc. The emerging agency model in the e‐book industry works as follows: the publisher sets the price of the digital goods and the retailers who serve as agents retain a percentage of the revenue associated with a consumer purchase. The regulators claim that the agency model is hurting this industry as well as the consumer's welfare because e‐book prices have increased after the introduction of the agency model. We investigate the strategic impact of the agency model by examining a digital goods supply chain with one supplier and two competing retailers. In comparison to the benchmark wholesale model, we find that the agency model can coordinate the competing retailers by dividing the coordinated profits into a prenegotiated revenue sharing proportion. Further, we also identify the Pareto improving region whereby both the supplier and the retailers prefer the agency model to the wholesale model. Our main qualitative insight regarding the agency model still holds even when we consider the presence of the printed books in the marketplace. Thus, contrary to current press presaging the negative impact of the agency model on the e‐books industry, we find the agency model to be superior to the traditional wholesale contracts for publishers, retailers and consumers in this digital goods industry. 相似文献
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知识转移是企业保存知识、提升创新能力的重要途径,中介机构在转移过程中发挥了重要作用。本文以联盟企业间知识转移为研究对象,考虑了企业的不同心理压力,首先建立了联盟企业双方的讨价还价博弈模型;其次构建了考虑中介机构参与知识转移的博弈模型,分析和讨论三方收益变化的影响因素及策略选择。结果表明,在直接知识转移博弈中,转移主体的收益大小与自身的心理压力呈负相关,而与对方的心理压力呈正相关,同等心理压力下知识转出方占优;中介机构参与博弈情形下,中介机构作为协作角色的博弈收益仅受博弈双方心理压力影响,且与知识接收方协作可获得更大收益,而主导角色博弈情形下收益受到三方主体心理压力的综合影响,并在主导知识接收博弈时获得收益更大;中介机构的角色选择与知识转出方心理压力变化相关性不明显,主要受到知识接收方及自身心理压力影响。 相似文献
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A typical single period revenue sharing contract specifies a priori a fixed fraction for the supply chain revenue to be shared among the supply chain players. Over the years, supply chains, especially in the movie industry, have adopted multi-period revenue sharing contracts that specify one fraction for each contract period. These revenue sharing contracts are of revenue-independent type such that the revenue sharing fractions are independent of the quantum of revenue generated. Motivated by the recent events in Bollywood – one of the popular arms of the Indian movie industry – in this paper we develop and analyze a game theoretic model for revenue-dependent revenue sharing contracts wherein the actual proportion in which the supply chain revenue is shared among the players depends on the quantum of revenue generated. Our aim is to understand why revenue-dependent revenue sharing contracts are (or not) preferred over revenue-independent contracts. We also examine if supply chains can be coordinated over multiple periods using both types of revenue sharing contracts. We build a two-period model characterizing supply chains in the movie industry and highlight the implications of the multi-period contractual setting for the supply chain coordinating revenue sharing contracts. We show that supply chains can be perfectly coordinated using both types of revenue sharing contracts; however, there exist situations in which revenue-dependent contracts outperform revenue-independent contracts. Using revenue-dependent revenue sharing contracts supply chains can be coordinated while providing positive surplus to the supply chain players that is otherwise not possible under certain situations in revenue-independent contracts. We also demonstrate how revenue-dependent contracts enhance supply chain coordination and highlight their significance when the drop in the revenue potential from one period to another is moderate. 相似文献
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Juan Feng Zuo‐Jun Max Shen Roger Lezhou Zhan 《Production and Operations Management》2007,16(4):510-522
We study auctions for a set of commonly‐ranked items where each buyer has unit demand. This setting has promising applications in areas such as keyword auctions in the search engine advertising industry, the sale of quality‐ranked raw materials, etc. An auction mechanism suitable for this setting is the simultaneous pooled auction (SPA), where each bidder simultaneously submits a single bid and is allocated an object based on the rank of his bid among all the bids. We study how to improve the seller's expected revenue by enforcing a reserve price in an SPA. We find that the use of an appropriate reserve price may significantly increase the seller's revenue, especially when the number of items for sale is relatively large compared to the number of participating bidders. One inherent problem in the SPA is that some bidders may incur ex post losses; that is, they pay more than what they value the received objects. We propose a tailored VCG mechanism that generates the same expected revenue as the SPA does, while bidders do not incur any ex post loss. We also discuss the potential applications of this research to keyword auctions. 相似文献
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构建碳税政策下由单个制造商和单个零售商组成的双渠道供应链模型,在考虑渠道之间缺货转换的基础上,研究批发价格合约和双向收入共享契约下渠道间双渠道库存竞争问题,并设计了由双向收入共享合约和转移支付机制组成的组合合约机制使制造商和零售商实现共赢,以此保证合约的有效执行。研究表明:批发价合约和双向收入共享合约下,制造商分别通过调控批发价格和收入分享比例来调控双渠道的库存水平,其中网络渠道最优库存水平随着零售渠道单位碳排放量增加而增加,零售商的库存水平随着其单位碳排放量增加而减少。进一步分析了渠道间单位产品碳排放差异对批发价格,以及传统零售渠道和网络渠道库存水平的影响如何受到缺货转换率和碳税税率的调节。 相似文献