The Path-dependency of an Idea: Why Scandinavian Welfare States Remain Distinct

Examining reforms that have taken place in the 1990s, this article explores the hypothesis that the most distinctive characteristic of the Scandinavian model today is the “stickiness” of its reputation, rather than the institutions and policies that make up the model. Borrowing the concept of path‐dependency from institutional analysis, the article argues that because there is a strong commitment to the idea of a Scandinavian model, there is a tendency to expand conceptions of the model so that policy changes appear to be consistent with it.     

European Union Policy on Asylum and Immigration. Addressing the Root Causes of Forced Migration: A Justice and Home Affairs Policy of Freedom,Security and Justice?

This paper contributes to the debate on the development of the future common European Union Policy on Asylum and Immigration. It seeks to explain the rationale behind the evolution of the Union's policy outlook on asylum and immigration. It then analyses the most recent Union‐wide policy tools available to address asylum and migration issues, arguing that common European asylum policies thus far have focused on containment of migration flows seen as a threat to the European internal security regime and in response to perceived populist pressures. The return and readmission clauses now being implemented, in agreements with countries outside of the Union, serve to illustrate this point, as does the political willingness to extra‐territorialize asylum processing. However, the focus on eliminating the root causes of migration flows is a relatively new paradigm, developed since the 1999 Tampere European Council. Although off to a slow start, the European Union Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument may become an institutional outlet to create a more normative framework for asylum and migration. The success of such a framework is contingent upon breaking with earlier conceptualizations of “asylum” as a security threat. Implicit in such a framework is the need to retain a clear distinction between asylum‐ and labour‐related migration. Partnerships must also be granted a budget sufficient for their establishment in real terms with countries of origin and transit. Lastly, there must be changes in modes of governance, as well as institutional reform, if efforts to elaborate a strategy on asylum and migration are to be executed successfully. Curiously, while the proposed Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe sought to abolish the pillar structure put in place by the 1992 Treaty of Maastricht, it would have retained the institutional inhibitions imposed by long‐existing tensions between national and community administrations and the “inter‐pillar” battles between the foreign policy, humanitarian and development dimensions of the EU apparatus. The current political debate about moving Europe “closer to its people”, following the rejection of the proposed Constitution at national referenda in France and the Netherlands, appears unlikely to solve any of these tensions.     

Sickness and disability policies: Reform paths in OECD countries between 1990 and 2014

We analysed sickness and disability policies for the working‐age population in a number of OECD countries, between the years 1990 and 2014. Existing evidence suggests that there has been a broad shift in focus from passive income maintenance to employment incentives and reintegration policies. We have updated detailed policy scores provided by the OECD to estimate model‐based country clusters. Our results indicate that countries have pursued different types of reforms consisting of a combination of integration and compensation measures. The reforms of recent decades have led to the emergence of a distinct cluster of Northern and Continental European countries characterised by a combination of strong employment‐oriented policies and comparatively high social protection levels. An analysis of recent reforms shows a continued expansion of measures that foster employment as well as instances of retrenchment in the compensation dimension. Diversity of policy settings across country groups, however, remains substantial.     

The Revenge of History – The Institutional Roots of Post‐Communist Family Policy in the Czech Republic,Hungary and Poland

The authors combine historical and sociological institutional analysis to show that despite the political and socio‐economic transformation in 1990s, the institutional development during and before the communist era provides the best explanation for current childcare policies in Central Europe. While most authors have concentrated on policy changes that have taken place in the region since 1989, this article concentrates on the historical roots of these policies and shows that today's policies are highly influenced by a certain dynamics that had already emerged under communist rule. It shows that a historical institutional approach, which analyses the ‘gendered logic of appropriateness’ and policy legacies at various critical junctures, can explain why family policies in Central Europe had already begun to differ during the communist era, why these main differences continue and why even the changes that have taken place follow logically from historical‐institutional developments.     

Social Policy in Greece: Rhetoric versus Reform

This paper reviews the major social policy developments in Greece during the 1980s and 1990s, focusing on social security, health and employment policies. It argues that the concept of social policy and the practice of politics have been distorted in this country. Social policy reflects the legacy of a heavily politicized and centralized policy‐making system, an impoverished administrative infrastructure and poorly developed social services. Its emergence is characterized by the pursuit of late and ineffective policies. It lacks continuity, planning and coordination, being oriented towards short‐term political expediency. It is largely insurance‐based, reproducing huge inequalities and institutional arrangements which are behind the times. It provides mainly cash benefits, low‐quality but rather expensive health services and marginal social welfare protection. Moreover, the lack of a minimum income safety net confirms the country's weak culture of universalism and social citizenship. By implication, complex policy and interlocking interest linkages have tarnished the “system” with a reputation for strong resistance to progressive change. At the same time, sources of change such as globalization, demographic developments, new household and family/gender patterns, unstable economic growth, fiscal imperatives, programme maturation, as well as persisting unemployment, changing labour markets and rising health care costs, have produced mounting pressures for welfare reform.     

Discourse, Learning and Welfare State Change: The Case of German Labour Market Reforms

In this article we argue that Germany has significantly changed its approach to labour market policies (LMPs) during the past decade; in many instances Britain has served as a model to learn from. In a first step, we identify the core institutional arrangements of the conservative approach to LMP in Germany and contrast them with the liberal approach, using the UK as an example. Secondly, we trace the development and nature of changes in German LMP since the 1990s. We show that the policy has increasingly incorporated elements of, and to a considerable extent shifted towards, a liberal approach. Thirdly, we review competing theoretical approaches that might explain this turn in LMP and conclude that changed interpretative patterns have been crucial to understand the overall shift. Fourthly, utilizing the policy transfer framework, we show that in regards to the specific policy instruments German policy‐makers have learnt from the experiences in the UK.     

Center‐Based Early Childhood Education and Care in China: Policies,Trends, and Implications

The development of early childhood education and care (ECEC) policies and programs in China has been closely intertwined with social, economic, and demographic changes. This article systematically reviews center‐based ECEC policies and programs in China and presents the major trends and implications for future research and policy. The focus of China’s ECEC policy has shifted from health and custodial care to nurturing and child‐centered education since the economic reforms and the one‐child policy were launched in the late 1970s. Empirical data show that the costs of ECEC services have been continuously increasing. Both the number of children enrolled and the overall enrolment rates have declined during the late 1990s but they have increased slightly since 2001. The ECEC programs vary substantially in every regard by urban or rural residence, type of organization, and region. The quality of center‐based ECEC programs in China is still quite low, indicated by their high child–teacher ratios and low levels of education among principals and teachers relative to developed countries. Children living in rural areas or less developed regions and those from low‐income families suffer from fewer resources and lower quality ECEC as compared to their peers. These problems must be addressed by future policy interventions.     

Marketisation policies in different contexts: Consequences for home‐care workers in Germany,Japan and Sweden

Market‐oriented restructurings of long‐term care policies contribute significantly to the aggravation of care workers’ situations. This article focuses on the effects of broader long‐term care policy developments on market‐oriented reforms. Germany, Japan and Sweden are three countries that have introduced market‐oriented reforms into home‐based care provision embedded in distinct long‐term care policy developments. Conceptually, this article draws on comparative research on care to define the institutional dimensions of long‐term care policies. Empirically, the research is based on policy analyses, as well as on national statistics and a comparative research project on home‐care workers in the aforementioned countries. The findings reveal the mediating impact of the extension and decline of long‐term public care support and the corresponding development of the care infrastructure on both the restructuring of care work and the assessments of the care workers themselves.     

Portuguese healthcare reforms in the context of crisis: External pressure or domestic choice?

As a result of the recent economic crisis, in 2011, Portugal signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the European Central Bank, the European Commission, and the International Monetary Fund (the “Troika”). In exchange for Troika's financial assistance, the Memorandum required the implementation of a specific set of reforms targeted at the healthcare sector. The literature on policy reforms in the context of crisis and conditionality argues that governments have restricted room to manoeuver in responding to external pressure. We challenge this view, finding that even in cases of conditionality and strong external pressures, crisis can be used as a window of opportunity for reforms substantially shaped by domestic policy choices. In the case of Portuguese health reforms, these choices were based on pre‐existing reform plans aimed on resolving country‐specific deficiencies of the healthcare system and were enabled by the two main political parties' strategies of tacit cooperation and blame avoidance. The article emphasizes the need for more fine‐grained analysis of welfare reforms in the crisis that pays equal attention to the institutional characteristics and the political context of the affected countries.     

Cash for long‐term care: Policy debates,visions, and designs on the move

Cash‐for‐care (CfC) schemes have introduced a key transformation in long‐term care policies across Europe since the 1990s. The article explores the extent to which CfC policies have changed over time and into which directions, the ways in which change (if any) has occurred and the forces underlying it. By combining the literature on institutional change with ideational approaches, the article focuses on policy theories and policy designs, on modes of change and factors pushing for change within the CfC policy, and in the long‐term care and neighbouring policy fields. In doing so, we aim to contribute to understanding institutional change and the transformation of an increasingly important sector of the welfare state.     

The Multicultural Welfare State: International Experience and North American Narratives

Contemporary debates are increasingly pessimistic about the impact of ethnic diversity on support for the welfare state. A growing number of analysts argue that greater ethnic diversity in Western democracies is weakening public support for redistribution, and that this underlying tension is exacerbated by the adoption of robust multiculturalism policies. The purpose of this essay is to summarize early findings from several studies that bear on the questions at the heart of such debates. These studies analyse the implications of immigration and multiculturalism policies for the welfare state across OECD countries, and also focus more closely on the experience of two distinctively multicultural countries, the United States and Canada. The evidence points to more complex relationships than often assumed. OECD countries with large foreign‐born populations have not had more difficulty in sustaining their welfare states than other countries. The extent of change does seem to matter, however, as countries in which immigrant communities grew rapidly between 1970 and the late 1990s did experience lower rates of growth in social spending. But despite the warnings of some critics, robust multiculturalism policies do not systematically exacerbate this tension. Moreover, the United States and Canada reflect different patterns. In the US racial diversity does weaken support for redistribution; but Canadian experience suggests that immigration, multiculturalism policies and redistribution can represent a stable political equilibrium. These contrasting narratives from North America stand as a warning against premature conclusions based on the US experience alone. There is no inevitability at work, and policy choices do seem to matter.     

Immigration and wage inequality in the 1990s: Panel evidence from the current population survey

In spite of record economic growth in the 1990s, income inequality continued to escalate in the United States. One popular explanation is that the proportion of unskilled immigrant inflows has increased due to policy reforms over the last four decades. This study evaluates the impact of immigrant skills on inequality using a panel data set of states derived from the March Current Population Survey (CPS). The data set provides unique insights into local impacts of immigration due to its ability to discern shorter-term annual adjustments versus the traditional longer-term focus of the Decennial Census. Using a basic theoretical model to develop testable hypotheses, the dynamic analyses reveal that increased relative inflows of unskilled immigrants indeed increase wage inequality. The impact on native wage inequality is especially pronounced, with an effect nearly twice as large as that on overall wage inequality.     

The Role of Non‐profit Organizations in the Mixed Economy of Welfare‐to‐Work in the UK and Australia

This article charts the development of welfare‐to‐work policies and compares and contrasts the traditions of delivery in the UK and Australia. We find that in the UK, employment services and social security benefit administration have been dominated by the central state, traditionally affording a key role to civil servants as direct delivery agents. However, in federal Australia, mixed economies of welfare‐to‐work operate in the different states, there is a far greater role for social services and non‐profit organizations are firmly established as key providers of frontline employment services. Since the late 1990s, UK welfare reforms have been gradually following the Australian lead in contracting non‐state actors as delivery agents. As this trend seems set to continue and intensify, we examine the Australian experience in order to reflect on the role of non‐profits in policy reform.     

Events,Politics and Patterns of Policy‐Making: Impact of Major Incidents on Health Sector Regulatory Reforms in the UK and Japan

This article examines the major malpractice incidents in the late 1990s through early 2000s in the UK and Japan, comparing how these incidents opened up pathways for a new type of hospital regulation in each case. Applying John Kingdon's three‐stream model of agenda‐setting and policy change, the article argues that governance arrangements as well as the policy instruments that a government has at its disposal determine how an event could be translated into a political agenda by throwing light on the problems within the public domain. The long‐term effect of such adverse events is therefore determined by how open the relevant institutional arrangements are, and is enhanced if actors constantly scrutinize the system by proactively setting the agenda. A higher level of political accountability in the UK led to British politicians taking a greater role in promoting patient‐led reforms than Japanese counterparts. However, a political system with clear accountability is more conscious of its own involvement and any potential blame it might receive for policy failures. Therefore, the political class could become more engaged in continuous reforms and the delegation of tasks rather than a constant search for remedial actions. The article sheds light on the interactive aspects of the particular triggering events discussed through the decade of regulatory developments in the two health‐care systems.     

Is Immigration Responsible for the Crime Drop? An Assessment of the Influence of Immigration on Changes in Violent Crime Between 1990 and 2000*

Objectives. The idea that immigration increases crime rates has historically occupied an important role in criminological theory and has been central to the public and political discourses and debates on immigration policy. In contrast to the common sentiment, some scholars have recently questioned whether the increase in immigration between 1990 and 2000 may have actually been responsible for part of the national decrease in crime during the 1990s. The current work evaluates the influence of immigration on crime in urban areas across the United States between 1990 and 2000. Methods. Drawing on U.S. Census and Uniform Crime Report data, I first use ordinary least squares regression models to assess the cross‐sectional relationship between immigration patterns and rates of homicide and robbery among U.S. cities with populations of at least 50,000. Second, I employ pooled cross‐sectional time‐series models to determine how changes in immigration influenced changes in homicide and robbery rates between 1990 and 2000. Results. In the ordinary least squares models, immigration is associated with higher levels of homicide and robbery. However, the pooled cross‐sectional time‐series models suggest that cities with the largest increases in immigration between 1990 and 2000 experienced the largest decreases in homicide and robbery during the same time period. Conclusion. The findings offer insights into the complex relationship between immigration and crime and suggest that growth in immigration may have been responsible for part of the precipitous crime drop of the 1990s.     

Risk and its Management in Post-Financial Crisis Hong Kong

In the 1970s and up until the financial crisis occurred in the late 1990s, Hong Kong prospered in a relatively stable social, economic and political context. Since the financial crisis, however, its population has been increasingly exposed to risk: there has been job uncertainty and decreasing capacity for self‐reliance, leading to a growing reliance on public welfare and on families at a time when both are under pressure. The old welfare policies, unable to cope with the new risks, have been replaced by neo‐liberal reforms, redistributing the roles and responsibilities of the individual and the state, with a greater burden falling on the former. Individuals are required to be prudent to manage risk. While these reforms have relieved some of the burden on the state, both new social risk groups and ‘net taxpayers’ considered themselves to have borne disproportional costs. Society is facing serious problems resulting from ineffective old welfare policies, new social risks due to new policies, and the political upheavals arising from increased social conflicts and weakened social cohesion and solidarity. A further complication is that there is no acceptable platform or agent to negotiate a compromise between the polarized groups. This article argues that reliance on publicly funded risk coping strategies or on neo‐liberal risk prevention and mitigation strategies is not a desirable and sustainable policy. A commonly accepted political platform is required to negotiate a compromise which emphasizes shared and balanced roles and responsibilities, and a well‐conceived combination of risk prevention, mitigation and coping strategies.     

The Workfare Illusion: Re-examining the Concept and the British Case

This article contends that workfare programmes pursued by various OECD countries since the mid‐1990s do not amount to a fundamental change in policy. The limited potential of workfare is due to the fact that it fails to transcend the constraints of earlier forms of ‘active’ responses to unemployment. Furthermore, it suffers from specific policy‐making disadvantages not shared by these responses. The article opens with a survey of relevant academic debates on the subject. It then places workfare in a broader context by identifying its functional reach, as compared to other active policy responses to unemployment such as active labour market policy (ALMP). The third section analyses workfare policies in the United Kingdom, as developed since 1997, by re‐examining the British New Deal employment programme. That review demonstrates that workfare policies either depend on their ‘fit’ with the existing policy‐making heritage, or that they remain merely symbolic. The article concludes by suggesting that the potential of workfare to effect change in responses to unemployment continues to be of limited significance. In other words, capitalist employment and welfare systems continue to be characterized by incremental adaptation rather than by fundamental regime change as suggested by the critics of workfare.     

文件治理中的政策采纳及其影响因素研究:基于国家和省级政府政策文本(2008—2018)数据

“文件治国”是中国国家治理的基本表现形态，不同中央政策在各地被采纳与实施的情况也是国家治理问题的核心研究议题。本文尝试突破以往政策扩散研究多只关注特定单项中央政策在各地扩散过程的局限，结合长时段大样本农村政策文本数据，对中央政府2008—2018年发布的多项农村政策在各地的扩散过程进行实证分析，相对系统地考察了中央层面的行政压力和经济激励，以及地方层面的执行能力和内在动力等因素及其交互作用对政策采纳的影响，进而对中国正式政策文件运作的基本过程和内在机制进行探讨。研究显示，自上而下的行政压力越大，经济激励越大，地方层面的执行能力越强，地方政府采纳中央农村政策的概率就越容易显著增加。从交互关系来看，中央政府对农村议题重视程度的提高会减小不同执行能力省份的政策采纳差异，也会减小不同经济激励政策的采纳差异。     

Changing Family Policy in Sweden and Finland during the 1990s

The aim of the article is to analyse changes in family policy programmes in Sweden and Finland during the turbulent years of the 1990s. The results suggest that in spite of cutbacks some features of the ideal‐typical model of Nordic family policy became more prominent towards the end of the 1990s. For example, the importance of universalism was strengthened by such measures as the discontinuation of several forms of tax benefits for families with children in Sweden, and especially in Finland. The subjective right to day care was extended in both countries to cover all children of preschool age. Because of cutbacks, however, policies aimed at promoting horizontal and vertical distribution suffered. There was hardly any change in pronatalism. Compared with the 1970s and 1980s, the 1990s were indeed a period of retrenchment. However, this did not mean profound structural change. In the case of family policy, the early fears concerning the demise of the Nordic model proved false.     

Three Routes to Pension Reform: Politics and Institutions in Reforming Pensions in Denmark,Finland and Sweden

By analysing pension reforms in three Nordic countries – Denmark, Finland and Sweden – that apply different institutional solutions in their old‐age security programmes, this article argues that the political processes that shaped the country‐specific pension set‐ups in the 1950s and 1960s had important ramifications for subsequent reform possibilities. A high degree of inertia exists not only in the institutions themselves but also in the political reform options and the ways in which pensions were reformed. The analysis shows that the ‘new politics’ was not new in any of the three countries. Furthermore, given the differences in the three cases, the analysis questions the nature of pension reform. The Swedish reform in the late 1990s was a ‘big bang’ that eliminated the old and changed everything; the Finns built on piecemeal reforms of conversion that gradually changed the whole system; and, while the Danish story appears to be one of stability and status quo, the drift of Danish policy ultimately changed the basic characteristics of the system. Although all three countries have more or less thoroughly reformed their pensions, the reform processes have differed according to both historical legacies and institutional frameworks.