基于指数方法的中国劳动生产率增长实证分析

On the base of analyzing the shortcomings of produetion function, the author analyses the factors affecting the growth of productivity of China since the reform and opening up by using index method. The results show that 44.73% of the change of productivity is induced by the shift of employed persons between industries.     

金融中介发展与经济增长:中国案例研究与国际比较

Using the cointegration analysis technology and causality analysis technology, we discuss the relationship between financial interrediaries development and economic growth in China, Evidences from the multivariate VAR system show that (ⅰ)as far as the relationship between financial intermediaries scale and economic growth is concerned, what Robinson (1952) declared is right, "where enterprise lead finance follows"; (ⅱ) on the relationship between financial intermediaries efficiency and economic growth, the view of many endogenous economic growth models can be supported by China case.     

中国经济开始进入较快增长的上升通道——2002年回顾与2003年展望

2002 is the first year since China entered WTO. In the circumstance of the unstable and even decreasing recovery of world economy, the whole national economy of China shows a well-orientated developing trend, gets rid of the old model of "first half high, second half low". In 2002, the economy accelerates one season after another, the quality of development improves step by step. It is strengthened obviously the market-orientated self-grewth capability. The economic growth rate for 2002 will be nearly 8 %. Considering the developing trend of the economy, we can comprehensively infer that the Chinese economy will keep the trend of relatively high-speed development and the growth rate for 2003 will be above 7.5 %.     

FDI技术外溢的动态测算及原因解释

A dyanmic model of measuring technology spillover effects from FDI has been established in thispaper by introducing the adaptive expectation process into the original Feder model, and China' seconomic data are used to calculate the time-series of technology spillovers for China' s FDI. A furtherstudy demonstrates that the interaction of human capital and FDI well explains the changes of spillovereffects, while the degree of openness and the improvement of infrastructure also have a positive impact ontechnology spillover. However, it's hard to make certain the relationship between the technology gap,competitive intensity of domestic market and technology spillovers.     

地下资产存量价值变化的因素分解

The researchers often discussed that how to get the value of the stock level of sub-soil asset by net present value(NPV) when they considered the value of depletion of natural recourse in the past. They did not pay more attention to elements which impact the value of the stock level of sub-soil asset. This article introduces a general formula, then focuses on the impact of each element changes on the value of stock level of sub-soil asset in terms of quantity, it gives an illustrative example at the end.     

国际竞争力对社会经济统计的影响

The paper introduces to the development and system of international competition capability, as well as the impact on social and economical statistics.     

联合国统计指标解释节选(十六)

In the majoriy of countries,wholesale price index numbers are computed as base-weighted arithmetic averages of the price relative.The formula used is either:     

江西与中部省份发展状况比较研究

In a common sense, a transforming process of industrial structure is the process of the economicdevelopment. Firstly, this thesis reviews the past and the current of the industrial development in thecentral China after the PRC was established. Secondly, The thesis deeply analyses the reasons thatindustrial development of Jiangxi province lays behind the others in the central China in six aspects assystem, investment, level of opening-up, and so on. Finally, after realizing Jiangxi's present situation andusing the successful experiences on industrial development of developed countries and areas for reference,we pose six suggestions and measures to focus on accelerting to deyelop economy and upgrade industrialstructure of Jiangxi Province.     

离散选择模型在产品差别研究中的应用

The paper introduces to the application of three scatter choosing model to describe consumer's choice, thereby to conduct the demand analysis by using the consumers' materials and the cross section materials of market quotation.     

东西部地区财政支出的实证分析

This article analysed the scale, structure and effects of finance expenditure in western and easternregions of China from 1996 to 2000. The conclusion indicates that both ablolute scale and relative scale offinance expenditure in the two regions have increased. The western regions put the emphasis of financeexpenditure on infrastructure while the eastern regions on science and technology. Compared with easternregions, the problem of finance expenditure in western regions lies in the government expenditure washigher than normal level; the gap in science and education expenditure of every person between westernand eastern regions have been increasing. How to increase the effects of finance expenditure is the mainproblem which western and eastern regions must face, and this problem means more improtance to westernregions.     

房地产业界定和核算中的若干问题

The paper discusses in details the exact definition of property industry, provides three principles of the definition. It also introduces to the definition of United Nations, the United States and Hong Kong, China.     

联合国统计指标解释节选(二)

Production for own consumption ofhouseholds includes all own-account pro-duction of primary commodities——i.e.,agricultural,fishing,forestry,mining andquarrying commodities—own-account pro-duction of such items as butter,flour,wine,cloth or furniture made from pri-mary commodities,and furthermore othergoods and services which the producersalso sell at the market．The gross outputof the government is equal to the sum ofacquisitions for intermediate consumption,@1     

全面小康社会与全面评价刍议

Some suggestions about the evaluation of the all-round well-off society are put forward in this paper.The author thinks that this kind of evaluation is complicated and the methods should be diversiform.     

论生产函数调整模型

Cobb-Douglas production function is a nonlinear model which is most frequently used and can beenchanged into linear model. There is no doubt for the reasonability of this logarithm linearization. Thispaper gives an new proposition on the basis of deeper analysis that there is a defect with this linearization,hence adjustable production function model is proposed to eliminate it.     

中国证券市场股价指数VaR研究

This paper compares the models in Predicting the VaR of stock price indexes in China. Our resultsindicate that the normal model usually underestimate the VaR when given probability is 0.01 or 0.02, andthe weighted normal model usually overestimate the VaR when given probability is 0.04 or 0.05. Thehistorical simulating model and Logistic distribution model are superior to normal model and to weightednomal model in predicting the VaR.     

Bootstrap方法在证券投资基金风险测量中的应用

 Bootstrap method will largely improve the accuracy of risk measurement, which be used to calculate the value at risk of securities investment funds. The application of the Bootstrap method with GARCH-based risk measurement model, not only consider the fund’s data auto-correlation and the time-variable variance characteristic, but also very well simulate the distribution of the residual. The theoretical analysis and empirical analysis indicate that this flexible parameter-nonparametric mixed risk measurement model can improve estimation precision of VAR.     

《新巴塞尔协议》框架下对中国国有银行资本充足率水平及对策的研究

According to the regulation of"New Basel Agreement", the paper analyses of the current condition of sufficiency rate of own capital of four state owned commercial banks of China and raises relevant suggestions of policies     

浅析运用计量经济模型的缺陷

At present, Econometric models have found a wide range of applications on economic research.However their reliability can be easily understand by intend or unintended abuses. No doubt, econometricmodels have the advantage of revealing the numerical relationships on economic phenomena, but thereexist certain fatal flaws on these econometric models, which if not treated properly will lead to unexpectedmistakes in economic forecast or analysis. In this article some common flaws in econmetric models areinvestigated and some useful measures are suggested for their improvement.     

关于一国统计能力建设的研究

First of all, the definition of the statistical capacity for a country was given in this paper. Based upon it, author discussed how to evaluate a country's statistical capacity both from input side and output side. A possible way of evaluating a country's statistical capacity qualitatively was given. Finally it discussed how to building-up statistical capacity for a country.     

基于期权方法的动态租赁决策

Many researches concentrated on the analysis of leasing decisions, which afford no flexibility to adjust the term of the leasing during its life. Since these analyses are based on Discounted Cash Flow, it is inadequate for valuing the various options written into many leasing contracts. In this paper, a leasing decision with several real options was analyzed. An option-based numerical analysis is used here with an exampite to value such. discrete-time type of real options.