中国副省级以上城市人口可持续发展研究

基于2000年与2010年"五普"与"六普"的汇总数据,本文借鉴区位商及人口可持续发展指数的计算方法,从教育水平、第三产业比重、劳动年龄人口比重和跨省流动人口比重4个维度计算19个城市(4个直辖市和15个副省级城市)的人口可持续发展指数,并对其发展状况的变动进行比较分析,得出副省级以上城市人口可持续发展指数呈下降趋势,且质量的中心性也相对下降.对此,本文从培养和吸引更多具有创造力的高素质人力资本的角度提出相关政策建议,以促进人口的可持续发展.     

中国城市流动人口影响因素的定量研究

利用公安部 1996年流动人口统计数据和国家统计局 1996年国民经济和社会发展统计数据 ,对中国城市流动人口的影响因素进行研究发现 :(1)城市流动人口规模与市区从业人口、市区个体劳动者人数、市区国内生产总值、市区工业总产值、市区利税总额、市区固定资产投资总额、市区社会消费品零售总额、市区实际利用外资金额和市区职工年平均工资相关显著 ;与市区人口、市区非农业人口、市区第二产业从业人员比重、市区第三产业从业人员比重、市区百元资金实现利税和市区客运总量相关不显著 ;与地区人口呈负相关。 (2 )流动人口超过 5 0万以上的城市 ,其流动人口规模与市区的社会经济因素回归效果较好 ,回归方程可以用于预测     

试论山区人口问题与可持续发展--以秦岭山区为例

人口因素在可持续发展中处于中心地位。本文从自然环境因素和社会环境因素两个方面分析了秦岭山区人口问题存在的原因,指出人口问题对秦岭山区可持续发展的制约作用,并对如何解决人口问题提出了几点看法。     

中国城市人口流动增长的空间类型及影响因素

文章利用2000年第五次人口普查和2010年第六次人口普查数据,从地级城市层面分析中国流动人口类型、时空变迁及影响因素。研究结论是:(1)城市人口流入符合集聚规律和规模报酬递增假说,东部发达城市地区和其他区域重要经济中心城市保持着极强的人口集聚能力。(2)城市人口流入增长主要取决于城市所能提供的"综合机会",现代性和国际性特征及生活质量成为吸引外来人口的重要"拉力"条件。(3)城市人口流动存在明显的地域差异。东部地区城市人口流入的主要拉力因素开始呈现高生活质量驱动、知识密集型和技术密集型的创新驱动及高端服务业驱动,而中西部城市流动人口增长驱动力较为复杂。(4)投资对城市流动人口增长,特别是东部和发达城市仍具有较强的驱动作用,消费等因素的影响则不突出。     

油气资源型城市（镇）人口问题与对策

人口问题是制约油气资源型城市（镇）全面协调可持续发展的重大问题,是影响经济社会发展的关键因素,涉及人口自身的发展以及人口与社会、人口与经济、人口与自然相互作用过程中所产生的各种问题。分析了油气资源型城市（镇）人口问题表现及成因,并提出以人为本解决人口问题的对策。     

单因素约束下的坡市人口合理容量测算——以成都市为例

为制定城市发展规划，以实现城市可持续发展的目标，需对城市合理人口容量进行测算。考虑人口容量与经济、社会、自然的关系，选取国民生产总值、经济弹性系数、产业发展、耕地资源、水资源为制约人口容量的制约因素．测度各因素制约下的人口合理容量，最后应用“木桶原理”得到同时满足各个制约因素的人口合理容量。     

西部大开发与人口健康之间的双向关系

本文分析了东西部人口健康水平的差异及造成这种差异的因素 ,探讨了西部大开发与提高人口健康水平之间的双向关系。主要结果如下 :( 1)东西部人口健康水平存在显著的差异 ;( 2 )西部大开发对增进西部人口健康将产生巨大的影响 ;( 3)提高人口健康水平可以提高“生存资本”和人力资本存量 ;( 4 )应充分发挥人口健康在西部大开发中的作用 ,打破西部地区贫困和疾病之间的恶性循环 ,不断培育西部地区可持续发展的能力     

从可持续发展看计划生育工作的“两个转变”

可持续发展(Sustainable Development)即满足当代人的需求,又不损害后代人满足其需求能力的发展,是以人的发展为核心,谋求由人口、经济、社会、资源、环境五个要素组成的相互联系、相互依存,客观存在的整体协调、持续发展。显然人口因素在     

城市人口生态文明建设及其评价——以中国24城市为例

人口生态文明是生态文明的核心内容。文章通过探讨人口生态文明的内涵及其影响因素,建立了包括人口发展、生产方式、生活方式、消费方式和生态价值观的城市人口生态文明评价指标体系,并运用基于主成分分析法的综合评价模型,以中国24城市为例进行了评价分析,通过聚类研究,指出了这些城市人口生态文明建设中存在的不足,并提出了改进建议。     

甘肃省民勤县人口空间分析初步研究

利用2001年民勤县分乡人口统计资料和基于地理信息系统(GIS)技术的人口密度、人口自相关等分析方法,对民勤县人口空间分布格局进行探讨和论证,并对民勤县人口空间分布格局的影响因素进行分析。发现民勤县99.7%的人口分布在民勤县不足20%的绿洲区内,区内人口密度达到全县平均人口密度的6.7倍;发现民勤县人口的空间分布格局很大程度上受到自然因素的限制,并为民勤县的可持续发展提供了建议。     

A general review of the discussion at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development]

A general review of papers and discussions at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development held December 10-14, 1984 is presented. Discussions on population and development included China's population change 1949-1982, impacts of economic change on Tianjin's population, the population factor in economic development policy-making, Japanese population and development, recent population development in Hungary, population and economy, comprehensive long-term population development in Russia, fertility rate change factors in China, Shanghai's population change, and population and economic development in Mian County, Shaanxi Province. Fertility rate changes were discussed, including multinational borderline value assumptions, recent trends in life span fertility rate in China, fertility rate in Jiangsu Province, fertility rate change in Zhejiang Province, and sterilization in Yangjiaping, Thailand. Population and employment discussions included the economic impact of world population change, the 1984 International Population Conference, changes in economically productive population and employment strategy, employed/unemployed populations in Guangdong Province, and the economic composition of China's population. Urbanization discussions covered population and development methodological problems, population growth and economic development in the Pacific region, surplus rural population transfer and economic development in China, urbanization analysis, trends and urban population distribution problems, and Laioning Province population development. Issues in migration, population distribution, and regional population included migration and development of the Great Northwest, internal migration to Beijing, Chinese population growth and economic development by major region, and current population changes of Chinese Tibetans. Under social problems of population, discussions included women's status, development and population change, Shanghai's aging trend, analysis of the aged population, analysis of educational quality in Anhui Province, and the retirement system in Chinese villages.     

The population situation in Africa]

The population growth rate in Africa has been the highest in the world since 1970--about 2.7% annually. A lower mortality rate because of better health conditions, their tradition of early marriage and polygamy, and the predominantly agricultural economy are the main reasons. The lack of coordination of such rapid population growth with the slow economic development and backward industrial and agricultural conditions have caused a very serious unemployment problem and inhibit increases in the living standard. The vast areas of desert and equatorial forest are sparsely inhabited. The coastline, Nile delta, and the plateaus are the most densely populated areas of the world. The abnormally developed cities cause expansion of the urban population and serious problems in employment, housing, traffic, health, and education. Many leaders of African countries have begun to realize the seriousness of the rapid population growth, and a few have begun family planning programs. Most countries have no official policies concerning population control and a few even encourage population growth.     

西安市人口合理容量测算实证研究

如何科学地测定一个城市人口的合理容量，对于确保人口与资源、环境。以及经济社会的协调发展等方面。都具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。本文在系统分析影响城市人口容量诸因素的基础上．运用大量统计资料和数据。建立城市人口容量预测模型，对西安市2010年和2015年的合理人口容量进行了测算。     

中国城镇居民家庭储蓄水平队列效应分析

利用中国家庭收入调查（ CHIP）数据对城镇居民家庭的储蓄率进行了队列效应的实证研究。分析结果表明,属于不同队列的城镇家庭在储蓄水平上都呈现出相似的“U”型年龄分布,即中年家庭（40－50岁）储蓄率低,年轻家庭（20－40岁）和退休家庭储蓄率较高,这一现象与其他国家的实证研究结果有显著不同。本文认为,中国城镇居民储蓄率的“U”型年龄分布主要是由人口与经济的高速增长带来的：人口高速增长带来的队列规模效应使得面对更大竞争压力的年轻人口储蓄率较高,而经济水平持续增长带来的消费水平增长预期使得接近退休家庭储蓄水平重新上升。     

东北地区人口城市化水平的特殊性分析

20世纪末期,东北地区人口城市化水平达到50%以上,超过东北地区工业化水平,也超过全国人口城市化平均水平,但目前东北地区人口城市化明显存在着城市现代化基础相对薄弱,工业化发展动力不足的问题。东北地区人口城市化水平超前于区域经济社会发展水平的现象是我国区域城市化和工业化过程中的特有现象,其特征表现为:从发展趋势看,东北地区人口城市化增长速度放缓;从国内外比较看,东北地区人口城市化水平较高的优势已不复存在;从城市化质量指标看,东北地区城市经济总量和城市竞争力相对较低。东北地区的人口城市化虚高问题,在制定人口发展战略乃至实施国民经济发展规划中,尤其需要深入研究并认真加以解决。     

Family planning and economic development in Shifang County]

According to Marx, population either hinders or expedites economic development. During the late 1950s and early 1960s, Shifang County's population grew unchecked. In the 1960s its annual rate of population growth was higher than the national average. Because the growth of material goods was insufficient in supporting the increase in population, the national economy suffered. In 1977, of those Shifang families in debt to the production brigade, over 80% were multiple children families. Some of these families owed over 1300 yuan after 10 years. Obviously such families cannot be counted on to expand the economy or to increase family incomes. Between 1971 and 1981 when Shifang County began family planning, the average annual rate of growth was lower than the national average. At the same time, material production gradually matched population reproduction, expediting economic development. If, with the current age structure (32.19% are aged 0-15 years; 4.95% are over 65 years; average age is 28.41 years), each family has only 1 child, then the rate of natural growth from 1981-2000 will be 3.6% annually. A yearly decrease in population would enable the County to build up pension funds, save on food, maintain the current standard for acreage allotment and expand accumulated capital.     

Speech at the UN International Conference on Population,Mexico City,August, 1984

In seeking a solution to its population problem, China, as a developing socialist country, has been making unremitting efforts to develop economy while controlling the rapid growth. The objective is to control rapid population growth so that population growth may be in keeping with socioeconomic development and commensurate with utilization of natural resources and environmental protection. In the past decade, and particularly since 1979, China has made much progress in developing economy and gained remarkable successes in controlling population growth. The natural population growth rate dropped to 1.15% in 1983, from 2.089% in 1973. Living standards have improved with a gradual annual increase of per capita income. All this proves that the policy of promoting family planning to control population growth along with planned economic development is correct. In China family planning is a basic state policy. The government has advocated the practice of "1 couple, 1 child" since 1979. This does not mean that 1 couple could have 1 child only in every case. The government provides guidance for the implementation of family planning programs in the light of specific conditions such as economic developments, cultural background, population structure, and the wishes of the people in different localities. The requirements are more flexible in rural than in urban areas and more so among the people of national minorities than among the people of the Han Nationality. In rural areas, couples who have actual difficulties and want to have 2 children may have a 2nd birth with planned spacing. In carrying out its family planning program, China has consistently adhered to the principle of integrating state guidance with the masses' voluntariness. The government has always emphasized the importance of encouraging the people's own initiatives, through publicity and education, which is the key link in implementing the family planning program.     

京津冀城市群人口空间结构演变及优化路径研究

人口的流动和分布直接影响着城市群城镇体系的质量,进而影响着城市群经济社会的可持续协调发展。文章从人口分布的空间差异、动态变化以及空间格局三个层面探讨了京津冀城市群人口分布演化特征;基于中心地理论和新经济地理理论,从行政、经济、交通三个角度构建了城市人口规模分布演化影响因素分析框架,利用Zipf法则对2003～2013年京津冀城市群人口演化规律进行研究。结果表明,城市行政级别、人力资源水平、经济结构、交通建设等因素对京津冀城市群人口规模分布影响显著。基于此,提出应当通过公共服务均等化、城市技能互补、产业布局优化、交通网络建设完善等对策引导京津冀地区人口合理布局的建议,助推京津冀协同发展重大战略的实施。     

Characteristics of fertility transition in China]

Since 1949 and in particular the 1970s, China's fertility rate has undergone rapid and continuous change. This is a direct reflection of China's success in population control. The decline in China's fertility rate regulated the speed of population growth, altered the population structure, and brought population development to be in line with economic development. Data used in this article are from the National 1/1000 Random Sample of Fertility (1982), the 10% Sample of the 1982 Population Census, 1981, 1983 and 1984 statistical yearbooks, and other data from the Statistics Bureau. China's fertility rate dropped an annual average of 2.5/1000 from 1950-81. However, this time, the fertility rate fluctuated, depending on political, social and economic factors. As the nation prospered, the fertility rate remained stable and high; as China suffered severe economic losses, the fertility rate dropped. A steady decline was evident beginning in 1970 as the government began to propagandize the merits of smaller families. Between 1971-83 the average yearly rate of growth was 1.6%. The number of years a woman was fertile was similar for both urban and rural women in 1964 and 1981; moreover, in 1981 both groups showed a sharp drop in fertility between the ages of 27-35. The 1 child rate for urban women rose from 21.9% in 1964 to 86.6% in 1981. Urban women tend to be more receptive to late marriage, late births, and fewer children. This change in the 1 child rate contributed to the drop in the birth rate of 31.1/1000 in 1964 to 20.9/1000 in 1981.     

人口结构因素对美国房地产业发展的影响

房地产业是美国经济的重要组成部分。二战后的美国房地产业发展呈现明显的周期波动状态。除货币市场、利率调整等经济因素和政府调控、政策调整等政治因素外,二战后美国人口结构变化也在很大程度上影响着房地产业的发展变化,其中,以人口年龄结构、家庭结构和空间分布结构对其影响最为显著。