Bounds on the competence of a homogeneous jury

In a homogeneous jury, the votes are exchangeable correlated Bernoulli random variables. We derive the bounds on a homogeneous jury’s competence as the minimum and maximum probability of the jury being correct, which arise due to unknown correlations among the votes. The lower bound delineates the downside risk associated with entrusting decisions to the jury. In large and not-too-competent juries the lower bound may fall below the success probability of a fair coin flip—one half, while the upper bound may not reach a certainty. We also derive the bounds on the voting power of an individual juror as the minimum and maximum probability of her/his casting a decisive vote. The maximum is less than one, while the minimum of zero can be attained for infinitely many combinations of distribution moments.     

Celebrity and politics: Effects of endorser credibility and sex on voter attitudes,perceptions, and behaviors

While much research examines the effects of celebrity endorsements in commercial advertising, scholars have only recently sought to investigate the effects of celebrity endorsements of politicians on voter perceptions and behavior. This study expands existing research on celebrity political endorsement effects via an experiment exploring effects of different versions of a news story describing a celebrity's endorsement of a political candidate on participants’ voting attitudes, perceptions of candidate credibility, and voting behavioral intent. Although participants perceive credibility differences between high- and low-credibility celebrities, neither endorser credibility nor endorser sex impact attitudes toward the endorsed candidate, perceptions of the candidate's credibility, or intended voting behavior. Conceptual relationships to other studies on celebrity endorsement effects are discussed, as are implications, limitations, and directions for future research.     

Exploring the Gender Gap in Support for a Woman for President

The gender gap in support for a female presidential candidate gathered much media attention with Hillary Clinton as a frontrunner for the 2008 democratic presidential nomination. Two common explanations for this gap are that women have more liberal gender role and political attitudes. We contend that another important, and distinct, factor for heightened support among women is a shared social identity. We tested these three explanations across two studies. In Study 1, hierarchical regression analyses revealed that both attitudes toward women and sex independently predict a significant proportion of the variance in willingness to elect a woman for president. In Study 2, hierarchical regression analyses showed that when entered together, attitudes toward female authority and sex independently predict support, but when political attitudes was entered, only sex and political attitudes predicted support for Clinton. Finally, as expected, when primed with their gender identity, women increased their support for Clinton and men decreased their support, and women perceived her more favorably and men less so. In sum, these studies strongly support the arguments that the gender gap in support for female presidential candidates stems in part from women's more liberal gender role and political attitudes, and also from women sharing the same gender social identity as a female candidate for commander in chief .     

The role of ambiguity in manipulating voter behavior

In the standard account of ambiguous political rhetoric, ambiguity is equated with voter uncertainty: a politician takes an ambiguous stance on an issue by announcing to the voters a lottery over the positions he might take on that issue. The present account equates ambiguity with multiple meanings: a politician takes an ambiguous stance on an issue if his rhetoric admits of different meanings in different contexts. The linguistic account of ambiguity is based upon the formal logical concept of a piecewise definition. Piecewise defined terms provide the politician with the means of uttering statements each of which has seperate meanings for different voters.This paper formalizes the multiple-meaning account of ambiguity and traces the implications of the formalization for political strategy. The findings are: ambiguous rhetoric is often optimal; the conditions under which it is optimal are simple; and the selection of optimal ambiguous rhetoric is rarely simple.     

平等主义国家理想与区隔主义官僚体系：一个社会分层结构的新模型

通过重新分析“再分配”的概念,本文跳出以往社会主义国家社会分层研究中,对于精英与普通民众区隔的过分关注,提出了一个新的社会分层模型。本文认为,社会主义社会的分层结构是由平等主义（egalitarian）国家理想与区隔主义（particularistic）官僚体系间的矛盾所决定的。1 再分配本身并不产生不平等,而是再分配过程中的官僚及官僚政治行为造成了社会主义的社会不平等。与再分配中心的距离远近不仅决定了在再分配体系中的地位高低,也决定了遭受官僚政治影响的程度大小。在社会转型时期,基层官僚在再分配时期的优势将进一步继续,而整个社会分层结构上的差异也将逐步扩大。     

孙中山晚年政治思想的内在矛盾

孙中山晚年的民主宪政追求与他的一个党、一个主义的主张之间存在着明显的矛盾 ,他的直接民权理论与排斥个人自由的理念也难以相容。他期望用集权独裁的方式实现民主是不可能成功的。孙中山没有解决的政治难题 ,对所有东方民主革命家都是一个难以索解的难题     

中国城市居民的配偶家庭与精英地位获得

本文利用CGSS2006的数据,基于不同类型资本继承与转化的特点,考察了配偶父亲的社会经济地位对城市居民精英地位获得的影响,结果显示：第一,由于文化资本的传递需要长时间累积,配偶父亲的文化资本对个体成为专业精英没有帮助;第二,在中国,政治资本依然是具有支配性作用的,更容易转化为经济资本,但经济资本难以转化为政治资本;因此,配偶父亲的政治资本有助于个体成为市场精英,反之则比较困难。第三,资本的使用可能存在边际收益递减规律,婚后配偶的父亲带入的异质性资本效用可能会强于已被多次使用的父亲资本,因此,婚后配偶的父亲的社会经济地位对个体精英地位的获得具有更强作用。此外,配偶的父亲的影响对于不同性别的个体而言有所差异,虽然精英代际转化同时适用于不同性别,但精英代际继承更适用于男性。     

Socioeconomic status,perceived inequality of opportunity,and attitudes toward redistribution

Previous research suggests that an individual’s socioeconomic status (SES) is negatively associated with attitudes toward redistributive policies. The objective of this study is to examine whether the relationship between an individual’s subjective SES and his or her attitudes toward redistribution is contingent upon perceptions of inequality of opportunity. A series of multilevel analyses was performed using data from 28 countries from the 2009 International Social Survey Program (ISSP). Results revealed that the relationship between individual SES and attitudes toward redistribution was weaker among individuals who more strongly believed that success lies beyond the control of individuals. Shared perceptions of inequality of opportunity at the country level were also significant. The relationship between SES and attitudes toward redistribution was weaker in countries with higher levels of public perceptions of inequality of opportunity. In conclusion, people commensurately support redistribution policies (even contrary to their own self-interest) as they recognize the significance of inequality of opportunity. The greater the support among people for redistribution against their self-interest, the weaker the social cleavage in attitudes toward redistribution across different SES strata, and the higher the overall level of support for redistribution in society.     

“I Pay Enough Taxes Already!” Applying Economic Voting Models to Environmental Referendums*

Objectives. Models of economic voting have rarely been applied to referendum votes. We fill this gap by testing citizens' voting behavior on environmental policy in relation to their perception of the business cycle and general orientation toward politics. Thus, the study examines the personal, institutional, and economic determinants of vote choice on 36 environmental bills from 1983 to 2004 in Switzerland. Methods. We apply a logistic hierarchical model, where individual characteristics on Level 1 are nested within contextual determinants situated on Level 2. Results. We confirm the crucial importance of the individual‐level variables education, political affinity, car ownership, and urbanity. Classifying the electorate into five groups, using open‐ended survey questions about respondents' reasons for approval or dismissal of the bills, allows for finer hypotheses testing. We show that the individuals' positive perception of their personal current economic condition has a positive effect on the likelihood of supporting the proposals. In turn, we prove the negative, constraining effect of deteriorating macroeconomic conditions on approval rates. Conclusions. By applying economic voting models to referendum analyses we advance the understanding of citizens' vote choice on environmental ballots, we show the role of context, and we propose an original typology of voters' general orientation toward politics.     

圈子运作如何形塑了君权合法性?——唐太宗君权合法性建立过程的社会学分析

君主制官僚系统有其特性与运作方式.在官僚系统内,君主欲使其权力合法化,就需要实现对整个官僚系统的强力控制与有效支配.为了达到这一目的,君主需要进行三个面向的圈子运作:一是瓦解原有的政治圈子,分割以自己为中心的政治圈子,并做到相互制衡,形成以君主为唯一中心的圈子结构;二是以圈层辐射的方式形成由亲信、 班底、 熟人圈子层层扩展与相互连接的自己人圈子,并逐步以自己人替换掉原有的政治圈子;三是通过多元的监督机制、 定时的职位调动以及争夺官员权力获取的合法性等方式,将圈间"桥"因上下级关系建立起来的庇护关系限定在一定范围之内.     

户主意志主导“海选”分析——以曲陂村为个案研究

村委会直接选举亦称“海选”，指在选举过程中，不预先设定候选人，由选民按照相关规则进行公决的政治制度。长期以来，学界一直认为地方政府的行政能力和村庄的宗族势力在影响着这一中国农村民主制度的成长。而本文却从实证主义出发，从目前学界忽视的一个理论视角——户主意志主导了“海选”，透过“海选”中的户主意志形成的政治的、经济的原因，发现户主意志是为了自身的家户利益而控制手中的选票，这种因个人专断而流失公共权利的行为对农村民主制度建设带来了不得后果。而改变此现状的政治路径是推进农村民主现代化和民主社会化。     

Moral Values, Moralism, and the 2004 Presidential Election

The "moral values vote" in the 2004 American presidential election should be interpreted more broadly than as a reflection of concerns about same-sex marriage and abortion. Instead of specific hot-button social policy issues, a general personality trait of moralism—the tendency to perceive a moral dimension in everyday decisions—may have contributed to the election outcome. Specifically, we hypothesize that some Bush supporters shared Bush's high level of moralism (as reflected in his rhetoric) and that this moralism motivated their votes. Consistent with our hypothesis, a preliminary empirical investigation suggests that Bush voters were, indeed, higher in moralism than were Kerry voters. Plans for further research and political strategy implications are discussed.     

Ideological Centrism and the Electoral Fortunes of U.S. Senate Candidates*

Objective. The Downsian model of electoral competition with its individual‐level assumption of proximity voting by individuals implies that candidates in two‐party systems should perform better in elections when they adopt platforms more closely mirroring preferences of average constituents. Since extant analyses do not place candidates and constituents on a common ideological metric, they do not directly test the electoral consequences of proximity to voters. This study provides a direct test. Methods. I use the NES Senate Election Study to locate candidates and constituents on a common ideological metric and use ordinary least squares regression models to analyze the effects of candidate positioning on electoral outcomes. Results. Although stiff electoral competition may make it more likely that candidates gain votes by locating near average citizens, candidate proximity does not generally have a meaningful effect on Senate elections. Conclusions. Insignificant electoral benefits from ideological centrism may help explain candidate divergence in elections and has important implications for the nature of representation.     

MODELS OF INTERVENTION IN WORK WITH GROUPS

Three models of social work intervention are presented with a focus on worker-client interaction and the conceptual frame of reference for these models. The essential features and contemporary practices of each model are reviewed, as well as implications for achieving a consistent practice orientation. The reader is asked to locate his/her stance in order to work toward an internally consistent practice in working with groups.     

Voting for Catholic Candidates: The Evolution of a Stereotype*

Objectives. This article looks at the effects of candidate Catholicism on individual voters, turning the traditional inquiry into voters' religion on its head. Specifically, it hypothesizes that individuals stereotype Catholic candidates based on the voting behavior of Catholics in general, and that these stereotypes help voters make a decision in elections with Catholic candidates. Methods. Using data from the American National Election Studies (ANES), this article argues that citizens hold stereotypes of Catholics based on actual Catholic political behavior—solidly Democratic from the 1950s to the 1970s, but trending Republican starting in the 1980s. It also tests these stereotypes with Gallup data on hypothetical Catholic candidates and analyzes, through election‐day exit polls, the impact on voters of the Catholic conversion of a sitting U.S. Senator. Results. The data analyses strongly support the article's hypothesis, demonstrating that partisan attitudes toward hypothetical Catholic candidates shifted direction as the Catholic electorate shifted. In addition, Senator Sam Brownback's (R‐KS) conversion to Catholicism increased partisan polarization in his support—indicating a conservative shift in perceptions. Conclusions. Candidate religion plays a role in elections. Specifically, voters stereotype candidates based on candidate religion and use this stereotyped information to help them make an electoral decision. This article demonstrates this effect for Catholicism, but other religions should evidence similar impacts.     

Is specialization desirable in committee decision making?

Committee decision making is examined in this study focusing on the role assigned to the committee members. In particular, we are concerned about the comparison between committee performance under specialization and non-specialization of the decision makers. Specialization (in the context of project or public policy selection) means that the decision of each committee member is based on a narrow area, which typically results in the acquirement and use of relatively high expertise in that area. When the committee members’ expertise is already determined, specialization only means that the decision of each committee member is based solely on his/her relatively high expertise area. This form of specialization is potentially inferior relative to non-specialization under which the decision of each committee member is based on different areas, not just his/her relatively high expertise area. Given that the expertise of the committee members is already determined but unknown, our analysis focuses on non-specializing individuals whose decision is based on a decision rule that does not require information on the decision-making skills. Under these realistic assumptions, non-specialization is shown to be preferable over specialization, depending on the aggregation rule applied by the committee. The significance of our approach is not limited to the specific results that we obtain. Rather, it should be viewed as a first step toward a deeper examination of the role of individual decision makers in enhancing the performance of collective decision making.     

赵树理的创作生涯与社会政治学模式

历来的赵树理研究,均未能从一个时代文艺模式的兴起与衰落上,来说明赵树理的创作生涯。赵树理的作品和他本人的经历,对于社会政治学模式来说,其实是一个相当典型的例子。赵树理本与民间文艺有深厚的联系,有长期运用民间形式写作的经历。赵树理的小说确实可以看作是雅俗交汇的产物。赵树理是当时新文艺方向的代表。当他上升为整个文艺界学习的榜样时,并且要求他的创作符合于某种文艺理论的全面要求时,赵树理就难以适应新形势对他的要求了。一方面赵树理确应提高一步,提高其作品的概括性,但另一方面社会政治学模式所要求的典型形象中有着一种观念化的设定,这同赵树理向着实际的、易于吸纳事物复杂性的眼光,又难以协调。还有一个矛盾,即提高艺术水平的问题。赵树理主要是在一种民间大众文艺环境中发展起来的,他所熟悉的是如何适合群众的阅读欣赏习惯来写作的。赵树理遇到此种历史的尴尬,就其实质而言,反映了大众化文艺运动在走向全国后所面临的发展困难。社会政治学模式的观念设定,连像赵树理这样曾在为政治作宣传上获得一片喝彩的作家都难以适应了。与农民自在的文艺有着血缘联系的赵树理,要成为一个大作家,他应在思想的深刻性及艺术表现的多样性、丰富性上,有一个重大的发展,并愈益具有世界性的艺术眼光才行。赵树理虽集雅俗于一身,却是俗多于雅,因而他应向着雅的方向有一个更大的提升。他的创作存在三个缺点:一是"重事轻人",二是"旧的多新的少",即"写旧人旧事容易生活化,但写新人新事有些免不了概念化",三是"在一个作品中按常规应出现的人和事,本该是应有尽有",但因求速效,而将作品中应该有脑子里却没有的人和事省略了,"结果成了有多少写多少"。对这三个缺点的认识,表明赵树理对于他50年代初强调的"赶任务"写作的主张有了理性上的否定。赵树理的颓势是显然的:一是他的写实作风难以适应社会政治学模式,二是他的艺术上的危机也日益严重。赵树理经历了从社会政治学模式确立到衰亡的全过程。     

The art of impression management: self-presentation in local-level campaign literature

Campaign literature is a ubiquitous feature on the American electoral landscape. Candidates distribute written materials for the sole purpose of persuading voters to vote for them instead of for another candidate. The information a candidate includes in a piece of campaign literature, as well as how it is presented, can reveal his or her perception of the criteria citizens use when deciding for whom to vote. The findings from an examination of 288 pieces of campaign literature distributed by candidates for city council seats in 11 Ohio counties in November 1997, suggest that they perceive potential voters as being susceptible to both intellectual and emotional campaign messages.     

王维的痛苦内容及其解脱方式

被誉为“诗佛”的王维,其为人和创作对后世都产生了深远的影响。但他一生屡遭困厄,无论是个人家庭生活还是政治仕途,都遭遇了许多不幸与痛苦,而佛教的信仰为他找到了解脱的方式。对王维的痛苦内容及解脱方式的探讨,可得知其受到后人膜拜的魅力之所在。     

Why Do People Vote? A Psychological Analysis of the Causes of Voter Turnout

A great deal of scholarship has explored why some democratic citizens vote while others do not. This article reviews that literature through a lens presuming that a person's likelihood of turning out on election day is a multiplicative function of his or her ability to vote, her or her motivation to vote, and the difficulty of obtaining the needed information and carrying out the behavior of voting. We conclude that (a) turnout is made more difficult and less likely by onerous registration procedures; (b) turnout is more likely among some demographic groups because of greater motivation or ability or less difficulty; (c) the social setting in which a person lives and the psychological dispositions he or she possesses can affect turnout by shaping motivation, ability, or difficulty; (d) characteristics of a specific electoral contest can inspire or discourage turnout; and (e) canvassing and interviewing people about an election can increase turnout, but preelection polls and election-day outcome projections do not. Consequently, an individual citizen/s turnout behavior is a joint function of his or her social location, his or her psychological dispositions, the procedures involved in voting, and events that occur at the time of each election .