Population growth and social security financing

By allowing the population growth to be flexible, this paper analyzes the effect of a tax reform that involves an introduction of consumption taxation for social security financing. It is found that population growth and labor supply play an important role in determining the effect of the tax reform. If population growth and labor supply are exogenous, then an introduction of a consumption tax for social security financing, with the payroll tax rate being endogenous, decreases the interest rate and increases capital accumulation. However, if population growth and labor supply are endogenous, then an introduction of a consumption tax for social security financing increases the interest rate and reduces capital accumulation. Received: 26 February 2001/Accepted: 26 August 2001     

Population science serves human happiness]

4 areas are covered in this speech delivered on January 10, 1983. 1) Looking back on China's post-Liberation population problems: as early as the 1950s, the Party and scholars such as Ma Yinchu recognized the need to control population growth. For instance, a 1952 directive instructed the Public Health Bureau to encourage the use of condoms and diaphrams. When Ma Yinchu's studies showing alarming population increases were made known to Mao Zedong and published in the People's Daily in 1957, the "new population theory" was formed, which advocated population control. But before this idea gained currency, Ma suffered criticism in 1958 and population studies was virtually halted. Between 1958-61, as China entered difficult times, the birthrate declined. By 1962 the rate increased, leading the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party to issue a directive to control population. Again in 1971 the Central Government set population goals and incorporated population policies into national economic planning. When the wrongs of the Cultural Revolution were redressed, Ma Yinchu regained favor and demography entered a new era. 2) The responsibility of demographic studies: one of the most important tasks of demography is to solve the problem of confining the birthrate to 16-17/1000 annually, so that by 2000 the total population would be 1,200,000,000. This can only be done by advocating 1 child per couple, closely con trolling a 2nd birth and discouraging all 3rd births. 3) The contents of demographic studies: both immediate and future problems must be addressed. Areas of study can include sex ratio, marriage, family, population and land distribution, fertility, or an aging society. 4) Science research must embody a scientific attitude: it is best to follow the example set by Ma Yinchu, whose work was based on actual investigations in the field. Any development and production of scientific theory must stem from practical experience.     

Population issues and social indicators of well-being

Relating demographers' measures of various population characteristics (size, growth/decline, density, age/sex structures, migration, et cetera) to measures of well-being recently developed within the social indicators movement promises to provide new knowledge about the linkage of population and well-being that can enhance decision making about important population issues. A conceptual schema is presented that suggests specific relationships to examine at various levels of aggregation, that helps to classify research already done in this area, and that helps to identify "holes" in the knowledge base. Some special methodological features of research in this area suggest considerable time and care will be required to produce dependable new knowledge. These include: (a) the inherent multilevel nature of the relationships (involving properties of individuals and collectivities); (b) the slow rate at which population characteristics change; (c) the absence of much good well-being data from the past; and (d) the limited nature of the collectivities for which population data are available.     

Population research and education in Vietnam

Population research and education in Vietnam have expanded in their functions since the early 1980s. There are currently 5 departments conducting demographic studies: the National Committee for Population and Family Planning within the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Education, and the Institute of Pedagogical Sciences, the Ministry of Labor Fore, the Vietnam Women's Union, and the Youth Union. An overview is provided of each department and its research and educational activities as well as the General Statistics Office (GSO) and the Institute of Sociology. GSO provides statistics on population annually from a variety of sources including the decennial census. The last census was conducted in 1989 and is useful for understanding general demographic trends. Vital rate data are considered too low. The Institute of Sociology uses the sample survey and focus groups to examine social and economic conditions and their effects on norms and values about reproduction. The Institute conducted a knowledge, attitudes, and prevalence (KAP) survey in 1984. Studies have focused on the commune level and the role of government in population regulation. Findings have supported a position that the goal of a 2-child family is not attainable without social and economic change as well as family planning. Migration studies have also been undertaken with the Ministry of Labor. The National Committee for Population and Family Planning is concerned with studies on the biotechnology of contraceptive methods and abortion. A study in 1987 examined health workers attitudes toward and knowledge of a variety of contraceptive methods. In 1988 the Demographic and Health Survey was conducted and data were comparable internationally. Studies have been helpful in designing training programs and in informing decision makers. Forecast data in 1990 were useful in setting targets for the coming decade. The Ministry of Education targets the general public and students. Materials aim to create positive attitudes to family planning and to inform about general population issues. Special groups such as the Women's Union have conducted KAP studies and the Center for Women's Studies has focused on the problems of women in development.     

Welfare states and social inequality: Key issues in contemporary cross-national research on social stratification and mobility

Research on welfare states and research on social stratification and mobility share a common concern for social inequality. Research on welfare states is usually comparatively designed, looking for similarities and variation across countries in a number of aspects related to social structure and social institutions. On the other hand, the basic model of social stratification, utilized in most cross-national research on social stratification and mobility, is an abstract model which does not specify why and how we are to understand cross-national differences. Yet for about 20 years or so, researchers within the social stratification community have undertaken several cross-national studies. This paper reviews a few selected studies within each area and summarizes their conclusions with regard to similarities versus differences between countries. In the final section of the paper, I discuss key issues for future work within cross-national research on social stratification.     

中国人口科学研究的新阶段——“全面建设小康社会人口与发展研讨会”综述

人口问题在全面建设小康社会中占有十分重要的地位,"全面建设小康社会人口与发展研讨会"汇集了人口理论工作者和实践工作者的最新研究成果,促进了人口发展研究的深入开展。     

The research of population science must initiate a new situation]

The basis for initiating a new situation in population research lies in Hu Yaobang's address at the 12th National Congress when he said that the population problem is of extreme importance and that birth control is a basic national policy. The rapid population growth, he continued, influences income, food, clothing, shelter, education and work, and it might even influence the stability of a society. Thus, birth control work, particularly in the countryside, must never be lax. But if the work is done well, then population control can be successful. There already exists a good basis for population research. Since the 1970s, demography developed rapidly, whether it was in population theory, population control, disseminating information, training cadres for census work, projecting population, or in developing professional relationships on an international level. The Population Association of China, established in 1981, was followed by population associations in the provinces, cities, and autonomous regions. In the last 2 years, the Population Association of China convened 5 specialized meetings. Currently China has a Population Research Center and 217 offices, plus demographic studies at the People's University and Fudan University. In initiating a new situation in demography, one should study new situations, sum up new experiences, and solve new problems. The national policy is to control population numbers and raise population quality. This can be done by educating peasants that female babies are worthwhile, protecting mothers who bear female babies, and encouraging eugenics.     

The methodology of early social indicator research: William Fielding Ogburn and ‘Recent social trends’, 1933

Sociologist William Fielding Ogburn was director of research for President Hoover's Research Committee on Social Trends, 1929–1933, one of the earliest major pieces of social indicator research. A memorandum written by Ogburn in 1932 on the methodology of Recent Social Trends is published for the first time with an introduction describing the background to the work and the methodological controversies which it engendered. Ogburn's Note on Method emphasises the importance of ensuring factual accuracy and objectivity and of eliminating opinions, recommendations and biases from the work of the President's Committee.     

亲属、法律、家庭养老

中国家庭养老的传统在今天仍被社会、家庭和个人所重视和依赖。这种传统的部分基础是亲属制度。在这种制度下家中的每个人有其约定俗成的权利和义务 ,在赡养老年人的问题上也如此。亲属数量和类别的多少不仅可以增加老年人晚年接受各方面照料的力量 ,也会潜移默化地促使人们认同、接受和依靠家庭养老这种方式。国家法律也对家庭养老传统的延续起到了监督和推动的作用     

Population and social structure in a Bedfordshire parish: The Cardington listing of inhabitants, 1782

Abstract This paper describes some of the main social and demographic characteristics of a Bedfordshire parish in the second half of the eighteenth century. It is based on an analysis of the 'Listing of Inhabitants' of Cardington in 1782, and on the use of the parish registers. The listing does not allow an analysis of the entire population of the parish. Its most serious deficiency is the failure to give sufficient detail for the upper social strata of the parish population, viz. the residents of 'farm tenements' and a small number of other properties likewise poorly documented. In the main, the data given in the article refer only to the residents of 'cottage tenements'. They represent the majority of the parish population, but omit the small group at the top of village society. For the 'cottage tenement' population a number of conclusions are drawn. Within this population there was an overall excess of females over males, but the excess was slight, and the number and proportion of males and females in each age-group balanced quite closely. 43-44% of the population of known age were less than 15 years old, and almost half the population were aged between 16 and 60 years. An analysis of marital status tentatively suggests that adult celibacy was rare. The average number of residents per 'cottage' household was only a little higher than the average size of family, confirming that only a small proportion of households contained more than one family. Household and family size may have been larger among craftsmen than labourers, with the households and families of the former containing more resident offspring than those of the latter. About one in every three marriages was either a broken marriage or are-marriage. A reconstitution of certain 'cottage tenement' families tentatively suggests an average of over five baptisms per family. Yet there were only two resident offspring per family in 1782. The difference may be explained by the high level of infant and child mortality, with one-third of all baptised children failing to reach the age of 15 years, and by the high degree of population mobility, albeit over short distances.     

人口问题、人口安全与人口管理

最近,“人口安全”概念的提出开始引起人们的注意1,如何理解和评价这一概念?这是一个很值得研究的论题2。人口发展、人口问题、人口安全和人口管理是几个密切相关的概念。为了理解和界定人口安全概念的内涵与外延,首先有必要搞清人口安全与人口发展、人口问题和人口管理之间的联系与区别,以及这些概念所试图反映的实际意义。1人口发展何谓“人口发展”?刘铮先生认为,“人口发展是指作为社会生活主体的人口,随着社会生产方式的进步,社会经济条件的变化,其数量、质量和结构及其与外部的关系不断由低级向高级运动的过程。3”这是很准确、很恰当…     

Developing social indicators research on the military in American society

This paper suggest an organizing framework for developing social indicator research of the military and its relationship to larger society. Military activities are divided into seven categories which parallel civilian institutional sectors: (1) economy and labor force, (2) education, (3) crime and deviance, (4) science and technology, (5) health and health care, (6) population and family, and (7) politics and government. In each activity area each of the following three topics is discussed: (1) impacts of civilian social changes on the military, (2) patterns of internal military change, (3) impacts of changes in the military on civilian society. For each topic in each category we briefly review some relevant issues, classifying references by the topics and categories to which they relate.     

The research of Longevity Population of the Sixth Census in China

The concept of＂urbanization on city and town level＂ is an expression of Chinese version, or a mainland understanding of China. However, city and town are on the different levels. In the light of census＇ measures on city population＂ and ＂town population, the paper tries to analyze population size aud its change on both ＂city＂ and ＂town＂ levels： to compare the different population density and their effect; to observe the mobile population between ＂city＂ and ＂town＂ level, and their age structure. The paper tries to explain two demographic effects fiom ＂city＂ and ＂town＂ levels on the course of Chinese urbanization.     

失业人口与人口失业:经济学家和人口学家的对话

背景当下的中国正处在急剧的社会转型过程中 ,失业人口规模扩大、失业成因莫衷一是、失业挑战日甚一日……。中国人口的失业问题在世界上是最严重的国家之一。失业还是就业 ,在一些当事人看来 ,就似一个生存还是毁灭的哈姆雷特式难题。失业率上升极可能加剧城市贫困现象的发生和蔓延 ,带来人道主义的灾难。而在期待实现全面小康目标的有责任感的政府眼里 ,这是一个民生民权问题 ,也是一个社会安全问题。 2 0 0 2年 11月 ,党的十六大报告明确提出的“就业是民生之本”就透露了强烈的信号 ,表明了中国政府对人口就业问题极端关注的态度。中国…     

Assessing recall bias and measurement error in high-frequency social data collection for human-environment research

Population and Environment - A major impediment to understanding human-environment interactions is that data on social systems are not collected in a way that is easily comparable to natural...     

俄罗斯人口贫困化与人口危机

苏联解体后,俄罗斯实行激进改革,经济持续6年下滑,人民生活水平急剧下降,已有1/3的人口生活在贫困线以下。经济生活的贫困,加剧了生育观念的变化,拒绝生育或减少生育的趋势增加。俄罗斯已进入世界上生育最低的十个国家的行列。贫困化加剧了人口危机,人口危机又加剧了俄罗斯的发展危机。要真正解决人口危机问题,首先要解决好经济发展问题。