Who should cast the casting vote? Using sequential voting to amalgamate information

In this study, we are concerned with how agents can best amalgamate their private information about a binary state of Nature. The agents are heterogeneous in their “ability”, the quality of their private information. The agents cannot directly communicate their private information but instead can only vote between the two states (say “Innocent” or “Guilty” on a criminal jury). We first describe possible methods of sequential majority voting, and then we analyze a particular one: the first \(n-1\) jurors vote simultaneously and, in the case of a tie, the remaining juror has the casting vote. We prove that when \(n=3\) (a common situation for a tribunal of three judges), the probability of a correct verdict is maximized when the agent of median ability has the casting vote.     

Who gains from information asymmetry?

This article considers an asymmetric contest with incomplete information. There are two types of players: informed and uninformed. Each player has a different ability to translate effort into performance in terms of the contest success function. While one player’s type is known to both players, the other is private information and known only to the player himself. We compare the Bayesian Nash equilibrium outcome of a one-sided private information contest to the Nash equilibrium with no private information, in which both players know the type of the other player. We show conditions under which uncertainty increases the investment of the uninformed player and the rent dissipation of the contest, while decreasing the expected net payoff of the informed player. In addition, we consider conditions under which the informed player—before knowing his own type—prefers that the uninformed player knows his type. Moreover, we show conditions for the existence/non-existence of equilibrium in a two-stage contest in which the informed player declares his type (or does not declare) in the first stage and in the second stage the two players play according to the information available to them.     

Who Are the Poor?

Here we present the subject of poverty in the United States as one that is central to a concern with social issues and justice and argue that its relative invisibility in psychology reflects the discipline's dominant middle-class standpoint. We describe, first, the articles in this issue, which are focused particularly on the voices of poor women in the United States. Then we examine poverty in terms of its economic indicators as well as its experiential correlates.     

Who are the lucky ones? Heterogeneity in active labour market policy outcomes

Nordlund M. Who are the lucky ones? Heterogeneity in active labour market policy outcomes Int J Soc Welfare 2011: 20: 144–155 © 2010 The Author(s), International Journal of Social Welfare © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and International Journal of Social Welfare. This study focuses on how the effects from investments in Active Labour Market Policy programmes (ALMPs) may be differently distributed due to the age and educational level of participants. Outcomes were measured as the chance of labour market inclusion, labour market stability and post‐unemployment incomes. This longitudinal study captures long‐term effects among 50,000 Swedes who entered unemployment in 1993. While the youngest gained most from ALMP‐training, the oldest were best helped by ALMP‐ employment in reducing the risk of labour market exit. The lowest educated gained much from ALMP participation, although the effects were weaker than expected: those with a higher education gained more in terms of labour market stability from ALMP‐training compared with the less educated persons. This result was interpreted in terms of a springboard effect, meaning that ALMP‐training pushes higher educated people into further education in the regular educational arena.     

Endowment effects in the risky investment game?

Theory and Decision - The risky investment game of Gneezy and Potters (Q J Econ 112(2):631–645, 1997) has been proposed as a simple tool to measure risk aversion in applied settings,...     

What are the minimal requirements of rational choice? Arguments from the sequential-decision setting

There are at least two plausible generalisations of subjective expected utility (SEU) theory: cumulative prospect theory (which relaxes the independence axiom) and Levi’s decision theory (which relaxes at least ordering). These theories call for a re-assessment of the minimal requirements of rational choice. Here, I consider how an analysis of sequential decision making contributes to this assessment. I criticise Hammond’s (Economica 44(176):337–350, 1977; Econ Philos 4:292–297, 1988a; Risk, decision and rationality, 1988b; Theory Decis 25:25–78, 1988c) ‘consequentialist’ argument for the SEU preference axioms, but go on to formulate a related diachronic-Dutch-book-style’ argument that better achieves Hammond’s aims. Some deny the importance of Dutch-book sure losses, however, in which case, Seidenfeld’s (Econ Philos 4:267–290, 1988a) argument that distinguishes between theories that relax independence and those that relax ordering is relevant. I unravel Seidenfeld’s argument in light of the various criticisms of it and show that the crux of the argument is somewhat different and much more persuasive than what others have taken it to be; the critical issue is the modelling of future choices between ‘indifferent’ decision-tree branches in the sequential setting. Finally, I consider how Seidenfeld’s conclusions might nonetheless be resisted.     

Who Believes in the Storybook Image of the Scientist?

Do lay people and scientists themselves recognize that scientists are human and therefore prone to human fallibilities such as error, bias, and even dishonesty? In a series of three experimental studies and one correlational study (total N = 3,278) we found that the “storybook image of the scientist” is pervasive: American lay people and scientists from over 60 countries attributed considerably more objectivity, rationality, open-mindedness, intelligence, integrity, and communality to scientists than to other highly-educated people. Moreover, scientists perceived even larger differences than lay people did. Some groups of scientists also differentiated between different categories of scientists: established scientists attributed higher levels of the scientific traits to established scientists than to early-career scientists and Ph.D. students, and higher levels to Ph.D. students than to early-career scientists. Female scientists attributed considerably higher levels of the scientific traits to female scientists than to male scientists. A strong belief in the storybook image and the (human) tendency to attribute higher levels of desirable traits to people in one’s own group than to people in other groups may decrease scientists’ willingness to adopt recently proposed practices to reduce error, bias and dishonesty in science.     

How many Australian veterans are homeless? Reporting prevalence findings and method from a national study

This article presents findings from an Australian study of veteran homelessness (Hilferty, Katz et al. 2019). The AHURI Inquiry into Homelessness Amongst Australian Veterans was funded by the Department of Veterans' Affairs (DVA) to estimate the number of homeless veterans and to examine veterans' pathways into homelessness, service usage patterns and ways that service responses may be improved. This article presents the prevalence findings and describes the method employed by the research team. Drawing on primary data and extrapolating results to a larger sample of veterans, the researchers estimate that approximately 5,800 contemporary veterans experience homelessness over a 12‐month period in Australia. This estimate – the first ever to be based on primary data – indicates that veteran homelessness is a much larger problem than previously estimated and deserves priority attention from policymakers and sectoral representatives.     

Does social capital determine health? Empirical evidence from MENA countries

Using data from the World Value Survey (2010–2012) for 18 MENA countries, this paper investigates the causal relationship between social capital and health by applying simultaneous-equations based on structural modeling and IVs regression. Our main findings corroborate the hypothesis of reverse causality between social capital and health i.e. bidirectional causality running from social capital to health and from health to social capital is identified. Furthermore, our empirical findings show that individual-level social capital appears more salient in determining health, while community-level social capital seems less relevant in explaining health differences between individuals. Overall, the present study makes evident that high levels of social capital (i.e. high levels of social participation and high levels of trust) and high individual-level socioeconomic factors (i.e. high levels of income and high levels of education) may generate better health outcomes that policymakers must take into account to improve individual and community health.     

New Zealand’s engagement with the Five Ways to Wellbeing: evidence from a large cross-sectional survey

ABSTRACT

The Five Ways to Wellbeing were developed in 2008 as a set of simple daily practices for individuals to improve their wellbeing. While there is some evidence to support the association between individual practices and wellbeing, it is unknown whether engaging in multiple practices – and in certain combinations – is associated with higher levels of wellbeing. A survey was undertaken with 10,012 adults throughout Aotearoa, New Zealand, to assess individual wellbeing and participation in the Five Ways to Wellbeing (Connect, Give, Take Notice, Keep Learning and Be Active). Wellbeing was assessed with the Flourishing Scale (Md?=?46, IQR 39–49). Three objectives explored the cross-sectional association between the Five ways to Wellbeing and wellbeing: (1) multiple wellbeing practices and wellbeing, (2) clustering of multiple wellbeing practices, and (3) wellbeing practices as predictors of wellbeing. Results show that levels of wellbeing increased with each additional practice (rho?=?.53, p?<?.001), regardless of the combination. However, the most important predictors of wellbeing were Keep Learning (β?=?.23, p?<?.001) and Take Notice (β?=?.22, p?<?.001). Studies investigating ways to increase participation in the Five Ways to Wellbeing are warranted to promote wellbeing in Aotearoa.     

Does the Internet increase labor productivity? Evidence from a cross-country dynamic panel

The Internet has various economic functions and is a fundamental part of most economic activities and transactions. In this paper we apply a Dynamic Panel Data approach to study the impact of the Internet on labor productivity using data from 108 countries for the period 1995–2010. The results of the study show that the Internet has positive and statistically significant effects on labor productivity. Assuming other factors stay constant, increasing the number of Internet users by one percent increases GDP per employed person by $8.16–14.6. Educational expenditures as a percentage of GNI, per capita health expenditures, trade and gross capital formation as a percentage of GDP also have positive and statistically significant effects on labor productivity.     

Corrupt thy neighbor? New evidence of corruption contagion from bordering nations

The continuing presence of corruption worldwide has policymakers looking for broader trans-national efforts to combat corruption. We examine the effects of a nation’s physical proximity (via land borders and the number of bordering nations) as well as prevailing corruption on cross-border corruption spillovers. Using data on 147 countries from 2012-2018, results show that while border corruption positively affects corruption in a nation, a longer land border, and more neighbors have a mitigating effect on corruption. Nesting the analysis in the literature on the determinants of cross-national corruption, these new findings imply that a nation’s geographic location might play a larger role in transmissions of corruption than previously recognized. This finding has relevance for the design of anti-corruption coordination across nations.     

Popularity of Indonesian Adolescents: Do the Findings from the USA Generalize to a Muslim Majority Developing Country?

This study investigated whether the pattern of behavior associated with popularity in the USA is also found in Indonesia. Participants were 452 7th (13 years) and 10th grade (16 years) Muslim students from West Java, Indonesia. Data were obtained from adolescents, peers, and teachers. Social preference and popularity were positively associated with prosocial behavior and number of mutual friends. Whereas social preference was positively associated with academic achievement and negatively associated with aggression, popularity was positively associated with aggression and tobacco use. These patterns of association are similar to those found in the United States. Indonesian society is highly hierarchical and popularity structures may build upon these stratifications.     

Child safety in policy: Who is being kept safe and from what?

Keeping children safe from harm is a national policy priority in Australia. Extensive inquiries and reviews have highlighted institutions' persistent failures to respond ethically and appropriately to child abuse and its life-long impacts on survivors. Policy efforts now reflect considerable emphasis on safeguarding children, including through the development of ‘child safe’ organisations. The realisation of these policy aspirations requires close attention to how ‘child safe’ is conceptualised and operationalised in different organisational contexts. Drawing on an analysis of policy in Australia and other international jurisdictions, namely New Zealand, the United Kingdom and Ireland, this article engages critically with the notion of ‘child safe’ in policy, to explore who is to be safe, from what and how, in organisational settings. The findings suggest emergent discourses of ‘child safe’ are bound up with particular constructions of both children and safety, reflect current social and political understandings and agendas, and have implications for organisations' approaches to safety. Ensuring the safety of children in Australia and other jurisdictions requires continuing scrutiny of policy implementation to make sure current policy efforts are not reduced to compliance-based imperatives that protect organisations, but fail to create the cultural conditions that enhance children's wellbeing and safety.     

Less social health insurance, more private supplementary insurance? Empirical evidence from Germany

Based on individual level data from Germany, we analyze the effect of changes in the compulsory benefit package of the social health insurance on the demand for supplementary private insurance, employing a difference-in-differences approach. The focus is on the exclusion of dental prostheses from the benefit package in 1997 and its re-inclusion in 1999. Individuals born prior to 1979 serve as control group because only the young were affected by the reform. No significant effect on the demand for supplementary health insurance is found. Thus, the notion of clients making informed choices about their health insurances’ coverage is not supported.     

Who Owns the Group? The Role of Worker Control in the Development of a Group: A Qualitative Research Study of Practice

This paper presents an application of the qualitative research methodology of ethnographic content analysis as a means to discover the salient features and nature of a social work group. Observational data from process recordings of a thirty-week group of mothers at a child guidance center are systematically analyzed. This paper addresses a number of issues: (1) the need to explore and further articulate the role of worker vis-à-vis the dynamic of mutual aid in social work groups, particularly in regard to the concept of exercising 'control;' (2) the applicability of qualitative research methodology as a means of conceptualizing aspects of group work practice, thus contributing to our theory base and knowledge and tools for practice; and (3) the wealth of data for such research lying available in the written recordings of every group practitioner, and the natural logic that the development of theory in social work with groups comes most aptly from the practice domain.     

A drop of water from a stagnant pool? Inter-war detective fiction and the rural community

Detective fiction has been little considered by historians of the British inter-war village. This is despite the phenomenal publishing and sales in this literary genre. Agatha Christie is the bestselling writer of books of all time, and millions of people world-wide have learnt about English villages by reading her. This article discusses why inter-war fiction is instructive to social historians. It concentrates on the so-called ‘Golden Age’ of this fiction: notably the authors Agatha Christie, Dorothy L. Sayers, Margery Allingham, Ngaio Marsh and G. K. Chesterton. The subject is approached through a number of themes, which address the genre, county house settings, the nature and morphology of the detected village, representations of villagers and the poor, the literary detectives (notably Miss Marple and Lord Peter Wimsey) and their relation to village life, the local role of gossip, depictions of the clergy, the fictional uses of material culture, senses of the past, the detection of ‘evil’ and issues of inter-war village renewal. A binding strand throughout is how the English village community is handled and interpreted in this fiction. The article argues that the detective genre is important and highly revealing to social and rural historians, and deserves extended analysis.