Non-tariff barrier on chicken imports into Russia: Impact on production,trade and prices

We analyze the Russian restriction on chicken imports as an example of a non-tariff barrier (NTB). Cointegration test results support the hypothesis that the NTB limited trade. We calibrate an equilibrium market model to cointegration results to assess the market impact. The tariff equivalent of the Russian chicken NTB is estimated to be 30 − 40% depending on the representation of consumer demand. Removing the NTB decreases domestic production by 4–5% and domestic price by 27%–34%, while imports increase by 326–423 thousand tons annually in 2015–2019.     

An alternative assessment of global climate policies

This paper analyzes alternative pricing schemes for funding investment in climate policies. This paper proposes a new policy scenario, explicitly disentangling the issue of burden sharing of financing new investments from the issue of taxation energy consumption and therefor emissions. We compare traditional allocation schemes with an optimal Ramsey pricing by applying demand elasticity values, derived from empirical estimations of household behavior for the 106 leading countries in the world, representing around 90% of total world energy consumption and carbon emissions in 2014. We calculate country-specific alternative taxation options: uniform, equitable and Ramsey pricing schemes, applied to households, assessing the related welfare effects. Our results show that the optimal pricing scheme, for a given investment need, can improve world welfare at the expenses of equitable considerations. In addition, the aggregate societal benefit outweighs the losses associated with specific group of countries, paving the way for easier political agreement, using compensation schemes to redistribute the proceeds.     

Liberalization of services in Europe: Polish perspective on economic implications of the Services Directive

The original EU Service Directive proposal met widespread opposition and was subsequently narrowed down. Some believed that the competition from the New Member States would endanger the situation of the “old” EU service providers. We assess the importance of the Service Directive for Poland and other EU members by performing a revealed comparative advantage analysis and a computable general equilibrium simulation of the outcome. The liberalization provides minimal welfare gains for Poland and the main opponents of the Service Directive, while they are expected to be higher for small economies open to trade in services.     

Welfare effects of demand management policies: Impact multipliers under alternative model structures

This paper explores the sensitivity of multiplier estimates under three alternative assumptions about factor supply. For this purpose, we have used a general equilibrium model of Malaysia which allows endogenous determination of factor and output prices and which permits substitution in both production and demand in response to price. The structure of the model and three alternative factor supply assumptions under which the model can be solved are described. These alternative assumptions amount to alternative “closure rules.” The results of a general increase in demand as estimated under each of the alternative closures are then presented. Finally, we examine the results of two specific types of demand increase under each of the closure rules, focusing especially upon welfare related variables such as real household consumption levels.     

Agricultural policy modelling under imperfect competition

This study evaluates the role of imperfect competition in determining the agri-food policies impact assessment outcomes. In most impact studies, the supply chain between agricultural production and final consumption is modelled in a perfectly competitive framework. However, there is a growing attention of stakeholders for the presence of imperfectly competitive markets, with the retail sector often being under investigation. This issue is empirically analysed with an application to the dairy industry. First, the degree of market power is estimated using a multi-output demand and price transmission equation system. Then, this model is used for policy simulation with the perfect competition outcome taken as a benchmark to evaluate the impact of imperfect competition. Results show a significant degree of market power in the dairy industry with implications on the projected policy scenarios. Moreover, the imperfect competition model alters the price transmission mechanisms, generating more flexible price trends.     

Return and volatility interaction between oil prices and stock markets in Saudi Arabia

The paper aims at investigating the links between world oil price and stock sector markets in Saudi Arabia over the weekly period from January 10, 2007 until September 28, 2011. To that effect, we make use of the VAR-GARCH process developed by Ling and McAleer (2003), which has the advantage to address the issue of return and volatility spillovers among the series we consider. Globally, the empirical findings show evidence of return and volatility transmission between oil price and stock sectors. However, the spillover effects are unidirectional from oil to some sectors for returns, but bidirectional for volatility patterns with more apparent links from sectors to oil. The optimal weights and hedge ratios for oil/stock portfolio holdings are sensitive to the sectors considered, and allow a better understanding of the links between sectors and oil for investors who seek for investment opportunities and want to diversify their portfolios. The findings are of great interest and have important implications for investors, market participants and policy makers.     

Are EU standards detrimental to Africa’s exports?

The high costs of complying with standards adversely affect export competitiveness. Existing evidence suggests that the harmonisation of standards to international benchmarks reduces compliance costs and is less trade-inhibiting, or may even be trade-promoting. This paper thus investigates how the regulatory margin in food standards affects Africa’s fish exports to the EU. We measure the regulatory margin in standards by comparing EU standards to the international scientifically-formulated benchmarks. Our results indicate that, relative to the international standards, EU fish standards are indeed non-inhibiting. Thus, the high number of fish exports from Africa rejected by the EU due to non-compliance with EU standards does not really suggest that the measures are overly restrictive but rather is an indication of the poor quality of Africa’s fish exports. This finding suggests a need for upgrades to Africa’s fish export quality, especially the fish supply chain infrastructure, through continuous improvements in fish export logistics facilitation and export promotion measures.     

Retaliatory temporary trade barriers: New facts and patterns

This paper takes a fresh look into the role of Temporary Trade Barriers (TTBs) and whether they are introduced for strategic reasons. We construct a novel sectoral measure of retaliation using daily bilateral data on TTB responses in 1220 subsectors across a panel of 25 advanced and emerging economies over 1989–2015. We use this measure to present novel stylized facts and patterns suggesting that strategic considerations may be more important (in terms of intensity and frequency) than commonly understood from the existing literature, which has tended to ignore within-year responses. Our evidence indicates that retaliation actually often consists of responses across many sectors and indeed that same-sector retaliation is far from being the norm.     

Simulating alternative foodgrain price and trade policies: An application for the Dominican Republic

Self-sufficiency and free trade are two of the most frequently advocated foodgrain policies. This paper presents a methodology for simulating the impact of thse two policy alternatives on a country's production, consumption, farm price, retail price and trade of a staple foodgrain. Simple formulas are also derived for estimating the effect of different policies on consumer and producer welfare. A simulation of the two policy alternatives is conducted for the case of rice in the Dominican Republic.     

Hidden obstacles to trade: The case of the EU’s Ban on beef hormones

Non-tariff measures (NTMs) have become a prominent issue in trade negotiations, especially in agriculture. For trade negotiations between the EU and U.S., beef has emerged as an important topic. To export to the EU, U.S. producers face a complex series of compliance costs that occur on multiple points along the supply chain. However, the current approach to measuring NTMs does so in an abstract manner; this paper applies a more detailed, supply chain (SC) approach to measure those costs. Our analysis finds that the SC approach comprehensively accounts for the different components of NTM costs and leads to more meaningful implications for interpreting the welfare impacts of removing NTMs.     

Wearing corset,losing shape: The euro's effect on trade imbalances

When does trade become a one-way relationship? We study bilateral trade balances for a sample of 18 European countries over the period from 1948 through 2008. We find that, with the introduction of the euro, trade imbalances among euro area members widened considerably, even after allowing for permanent asymmetries in trade competitiveness within pairs of countries or in the overall trade competitiveness of individual countries. This is consistent with indications that pair-wise trade tends to be more balanced when nominal exchange rates are flexible. Intra-euro area imbalances also seem to have become more persistent with the introduction of the euro, some of which is linked to labor market inflexibility. Reviewing the direction of imbalances, we find that bilateral trade surpluses are decreasing in the real exchange rate, decreasing in growth differentials, and increasing in the relative volatility of national business cycles. Finally, countries with relatively higher fiscal deficits and less flexible labor and product markets exhibit systematically lower trade surpluses than others.     

The impact of the EU sugar trade reform on poor households in developing countries: A general equilibrium analysis

We use a modified version of the applied general equilibrium model GTAP, called GTAP_MH, to evaluate the impact of a reduction in the EU's support price for sugar on income distribution of African households. For LDC countries, non-ACP but participant in the EBA initiative a +2% change is indicated in term of income generation across all ten social strata identified within GTAP_MH framework, with positive percentage changes in supply prices at household level of endowment commodities, and positive percentage changes in price indices for private household expenditures. The big losers will be those countries that would no longer be able to compete at an international level as a result of the lost preferences.     

Sudden stop and trade balance reversal after Asian crisis: Investment drought impact versus exchange rate depreciation

After the Asian crisis in 1997, the respective trade balances of Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand reversed suddenly from deficit to surplus. By particularly addressing the sudden cessation of investment caused by the financial crisis, it is demonstrated that the IS balance adjustment dominates real exchange rate depreciation, indicating that to reform the large external imbalance of Asian countries, which is a major component of global imbalance, policymakers should target domestic absorption. Furthermore, it can be demonstrated that the large trade balance surplus of Asian countries will decrease along with recovery. Finally, policy implications related to the recent Euro crisis are provided.     

The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis

This paper argues that the lack of timely and decisive policy action to correct domestic and external imbalances contributed crucially to the build-up of financial excesses that led to the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We focus on 2002–2007 and perform a number of counterfactual simulations to investigate two central elements of the story, namely: (a) an over-expansionary US monetary policy and the absence of effective macro-prudential supervision, which permitted a prolonged expansion of debt-financed consumer spending and (b) the choice by China and other emerging countries to pursue an export-led growth strategy supported by pegging their currencies to the US dollar, in conjunction with sluggish domestic demand in major advanced economies characterized by low potential output growth. The results of the simulations lend support to the view that if substantial, globally coordinated demand rebalancing had been undertaken early on, the macroeconomic and financial imbalances would not have accumulated to the extent that they did and the financial turmoil might have had less drastic global consequences.     

Macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the Rest of World: A global CGE analysis

This paper analyzes the ex-ante short-term impacts of the Chinese RMB appreciation on the Chinese and world economy, using a novel approach of modeling nominal exchange rate adjustment in the GTAP, a global CGE model. Scenario results show that Chinese economy will be affected negatively, with lower real GDP, lower employment rates, and a decline in the trade surplus. Chinese currency appreciation has positive impact on the GDP of the major countries and regions, although by a small margin. With higher Chinese exchange rate, trade balance for other trading partner countries improves with the exception of the U.S.     

Resource reallocation under alternative trade regimes: A simulation of Turkey's entry into the EEC

A general equilibrium model that is applicable for simulating the directions in which resources would be reallocated under alternative trade regimes, in particular, a free trade regime, is developed and applied to the Turkish economy. Because of the likelihood that Turkey will gain full entry into the EEC, the model is also used to identify sectors in which Turkey may have a comparative advantage relative to the EEC countries and to estimate magnitudes of static gains from full entry. To provide some tests of important generalizations from the theory of customs unions, these estimates of static gains are compared with some estimates of total welfare effects of the entry of the United Kingdom into the EEC.     

The impact of government CSR supporting policies on economic growth

In this paper, we explore the link between socially responsible companies and economic growth across 25 countries during the 2000–2008 period. We extend the growth equation by incorporating corporate social responsibility (CSR) variables and a dummy variable to measure the impact of government CSR-supporting policies. We find that CSR firms are important for economic growth (positively affect growth) and that countries that strongly support CSR achieve higher growth rates. Specifically, countries without an organized and supportive CSR environment and guidelines can hardly expect to increase economy performance through the new growth channels generated by CSR companies (new markets and customers). It is thus important to investigate how CSR companies affect economic growth towards reconsideration of the government's role in CSR promotion as a means to boost economic growth.     

Firm internationalization and performance: Evidence for designing policies

The debate on the relationship between internationalization and performance is still open and is a hot topic for policymakers, but they ignore the impacts for most of the firms supported. The paper is based on a large database of seven years that considers quantitative-qualitative and control variables. To reduce industry and country heterogeneity we focused on the Italian automotive supply chain. We tested 5 modes of internationalization on firms’ profitability so to support the design of policies. Our results are partially in contrast with literature; therefore we identify specific environments where policies, namely for exporting, could be more effective.